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Jrry32's First Mock Offseason of 2024 (02/03/2024)

Well, y'all are having so much fun, so I figure I'll dive in. I've been really busy with work (and will remain quite busy over the next couple months), so I haven't had a lot of time to do a deep dive on players just yet. But I'll do my best here.
Release
OT Joe Noteboom (post June 1)
OL Brian Allen

Nothing surprising here.

Re-sign
OL Kevin Dotson
S Jordan Fuller
OT Alaric Jackson (First Round Tender)
DL Michael Hoecht (ROFR)
DL Jonah Williams (ROFR)
WR Austin Trammel (ERFA)
HB Ronnie Rivers (ERFA)

I think we need to bring back Dotson. I'd re-sign Fuller too. I don't think he'll break the bank. He's a solid glue guy in the secondary.

Free Agency

Bryce Huff EDGE Jets


I think most of the top guys will get franchised. I agree with Memphis that Bryce Huff would be a great addition. He's a highly productive edge rusher who gives off Shaq Barrett vibes to me. Has looked great in a rotational role. I think he'll flourish if given an opportunity to start. He has shortcomings as a run defender, but he'll bring the pass rushing we need on the edge.

Cody Barton ILB Commodes

I think Barton is a solid bargain signing. Outside of the one year with Bobby Wagner, that ILB spot next to Ernest Jones has plagued us for awhile. Barton isn't an elite player. But he's a solid guy who will also bring it on special teams.

David Edwards OL Bills

After spending the year in Buffalo as depth, I don't see David Edwards costing much to return. I'm bringing in him as a depth option, not a starter. His ability to play either OG spot and RT (maybe even LT in a pinch) makes him a useful backup. OL depth is important.

Trade
Rams trade Round 1 Pick #19, Round 2 Pick #19, and Round 6 Pick #40 (TVC = 1269.2)
Cardinals trade Round 1 Pick #27, Round 2 Pick #3, and Round 5 Pick #3 (TVC = 1267.5)

Cardinals trade up for a defensive player they were targeting. We're content to move down to better situate ourselves to land the two guys we're targeting early in the Draft.

Rams trade Round 3 Pick #19, Round 3 Pick #36, Round 5 Pick #20, and Round 6 Pick #39 (TVC = 309.4)
Chiefs trade Round 2 Pick #32 and Round 4 Pick #32 (TVC = 309.5)

Rams move up to ensure they don't lose out on the player they're targeting.

NFL Draft
Round 1 Pick #27 - Ennis Rakestraw CB Missouri
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hucr65iaOcU

Round 2 Pick #3 - Jackson Powers-Johnson OL Oregon
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsldsSIl7Y4

Round 2 Pick #32 - Spencer Rattler QB South Carolina
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF_SruRs9dA

Round 4 Pick #32 - Ben Sinnott TE Kansas State
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pPrQrWxni8

Round 5 Pick #3 - Sione Vaki HB/DB Utah
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myuN_NTIzlg

Round 5 Pick #19 - Ainias Smith WR/RS Texas A&M
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x2RAAaGHR4

Round 5 Pick #43 - Will Reichard K Alabama
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5oO4qFrL7g

Round 6 Pick #13 - M.J. Devonshire CB Pittsburgh
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk8ul571Nyo


Round 6 Pick #34 - J.D. Bertrand ILB Notre Dame
Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgipKzkSHVQ

Round 7 Pick #19 - Julian Pearl OT Illinois

Draft Analysis:
Rakestraw is a long, physical, and talented cover CB who fits quite well in our scheme. He is a quicker than fast CB who excels in off man and zone coverage. Powers-Johnson is similar to the Avila pick from last year. He's a massive man who will be another anchor in the middle. We need to keep Stafford healthy and the running game rolling I moved up for Rattler because I think he could be the QB of the future. Rifle for an arm, good scrambling ability, able to improvise, and a guy who has improved leaps and bounds as he has matured despite his team around him lacking this year. With Higbee out, I wanted to get TE insurance. Sinnott is a TE/FB hybrid who runs like a bull with the ball after the catch.

Sione Vaki is a NFL prospect at both HB and DB. I'm drafting him to play HB, as I was highly impressed with his vision, explosiveness, power, and receiving skills. The best part of this kid is that he'll bring it on special teams as he develops as a HB. Ainias Smith is both a top-notch punt returner and a dangerous WR. Lethal with the ball in his hands in space. I took Reichard because I felt a team would reach on Karty. Reichard demonstrated 60+ yard range at the Senior Bowl this week and has gotten better and better throughout his college career. He had a really good senior season. Devonshire has long arms, explosive burst, and quick feet. He's also shown the ability to make plays on the football. Undersized but a good boom/bust pick here. Bertrand is a instinctive ILB with better football skills than physical traits. Pearl is a developmental OT. Has the size, length, movement skills, and mean streak (former DT). Needs a lot of polishing.

Starters
QB: Matthew Stafford
HB: Kyren Williams
WR: Cooper Kupp
WR: Puka Nacua
WR: Tutu Atwell
TE: Davis Allen (I expect Higbee misses part of the season)
LT: Alaric Jackson
LG: Steve Avila
C: Jackson Powers-Johnson
RG: Kevin Dotson
RT: Rob Havenstein

DL: Kobie Turner
DL: Bobby Brown III
DL: Aaron Donald
OLB: Bryce Huff
ILB: Ernest Jones
ILB: Cody Barton
OLB: Byron Young
CB: Ennis Rakestraw
CB: Derion Kendrick v. Cobie Durant
SLCB: Quentin Lake v. Tre Hodges-Tomlinson
LS: Jordan Fuller
RS: Russ Yeast

K: Will Reichard
P: Ethan Evans
LS: Alex Ward
RS: Ainias Smith

QBs that may slide in the draft

The Rams are a forward thinking organization, I have been thinking lately that both Penix and Nix might slide in the draft for various reasons. Penix with age and injuries. From everything I have read Nix did not show that well at the Senior Bowl. A guy I think might be there at 19 that McVay might look at and say I could mold is JJ McCarthy out of Michigan. He has has some rough spots but he played well in big games and i believe he has NFL arm talent to make all the throws. Do you think the Rams could surprise at 19 and take a QB?
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I Really Hope I Lose By A Lot

So I was in Vegas just before the playoffs started. I wagered that the Rams and Lions would win the NFCCG. If the Rams had made it my $50 would have won me more than $2000. My $50 on the Lions would have won me more than $500.

But I also bet on reality, so I wagered $500 on the whiners to win the super bowl. If they win, I would get $1200.

I really hope I lose. I only made the bet because my thought that if the whiners somehow win, I'll be pissed off, but I'll gain something financially.

At the time, realistically, the whiners were the odds on favorite.

That said, the packers got robbed. The Lions grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory, so now I'm hoping Mahomes is magic in SB 58.

If everything fails, at least I'll get some cash out of it. Go Chefs!

Av’s Preliminary Mock Draft (Picks 1-18) and Rams Draft Boards

Here are my preliminary draft lists. I’ve mocked the first 18 picks leading up to the Rams’ selection at No. 19. I’ve then provided my Top 10 draft board, some guys I’m hoping to see fall to Rounds 2 and 3, and some Day 3 sleepers.

First Round Mock: Picks 1-18
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2. Washington Commodes: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
3. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison, Jr., WR, Ohio State
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
6. New York Giants: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
7. Tennessee Titans: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
8. Atlanta Falcons: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
9. Chicago Bears: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
10. New York Jets: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
11. Minnesota Vikings: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
12. Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Byron Murphy, II, DT, Texas
14. New Orleans Saints: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
15. Indianapolis Colts: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
16. Seattle Seahawks: Jer’Zahn Newton, DT, Illinois
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
18. Cincinnati Bengals: J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

Rams Draft Board: Top 10
1. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
2. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
3. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
4. Keon Coleman, WR, FSU
5. Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
6. Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon
7. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
8. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
9. Ennis Rakestraw, Jr., CB, Missouri
10. Brian Thomas, Jr., WR, LSU

Guys I like for Day 2 (Rounds 2-3):
1. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
2. Trey Benson, RB, FSU
3. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas
4. Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri
5. Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
6. Jalen McMillon, WR, Washington
7. Junior Colson, LB, Michigan
8. Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia
9. Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan
10. Christian Mahogany, OG, Boston College

Guys I’d Love to See on Day 3 (Rounds 4-7)
1. Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire
2. Sedrick Van Pran, C, Georgia
3. Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State
4. Jaylan Ford, LB, Texas
5. Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State

Rams Coaching Staff

Realize there are a couple other threads related to coaching changes but thought one specific to the Rams' Subtractions and (eventual) Additions was appropriate.

Seemed like the 2023 Rams benefited from a strong staff; and, now McVay needs to find quality replacements. Some may be internal promotions but then replacements to fill those lower-roles will be needed.

As of the final day in January, the Rams were down five coaches ... four of whom held pretty significant roles ... and a couple more could be headed out-the-door.

The losses thus far are:
Defensive Coordinator Raheem Morris ... Atlanta Head Coach
Pass-game Coordinator Zac Robinson ... Atlanta OC
Assistant Head Coach Jimmy Lake ... Atlanta DC
DL-coach/Run-Game-Coordinator Eric Henderson ... USC co-DC
Assistant Special Teams Coach Jeremy Springer ... New England ST-Coordinator

Brandon Staley's name has been mentioned for the DC role, and was to interview today. Green Bay was reported to be interested in Staley but filled thier DC spot with a college coach (Jeff Hafley). Baltimore's DB-coach Dennard Wilson was also mentioned to be a Rams' interview candidate but he is an option to replace Mike Macdonald in Baltimore, with Macdonald getting the Seattle HC job.

With the Rams under the 2024 cap, they do not need to release or restructure players prior to March 13th (start of the League Year and Free Agency, although the two-day negotiating-window begins on the 11th).

Putting together a strong coaching staff seems like the #1 Priority for the next six weeks.

1999 Rams 16th of 57


there is a paywall for all 57 but here is a snippet

In less than two weeks, either the Kansas City Chiefs or the San Francisco 49ers will win Super Bowl LVIII. There have been 57 Super Bowls since the NFL champion first took on the AFL champion after the 1966 season, which means we have 57 teams in this exclusive club. One more is coming soon.

Some of these teams were dominant from start to finish. Other teams slipped into the playoffs after a mediocre regular season and then went on a shocking postseason run to a title. We've done our best to rank all 57 Super Bowl champions here from worst to best, looking at both the regular season and the playoffs to find the most powerful teams in NFL history.

To rank these teams, I used my proprietary DVOA ratings (explained further here) which look at efficiency on a play-by-play basis adjusted for situation and opponent. For teams prior to the start of DVOA in 1981, I estimated DVOA ratings based on Pro Football Reference's Simple Rating System plus the average margin of victory during the postseason. There's also an adjustment for the first four Super Bowl champions to reflect that the NFL was stronger than the AFL before the merger.

16. 1999 St. Louis Rams (16-3, 35.9%)


The 1999 Rams came from out of nowhere, as did their quarterback, Kurt Warner. They dominated the league on both offense and defense -- but they did that against a very, very easy schedule. Based on average DVOA of opponents, the only team since 1981 that played an easier schedule was the 1991 Bills. Between opponent adjustments and adjustments for playing indoors, the "Greatest Show on Turf" ranked only fifth in offensive DVOA. The defense, boosted by those same adjustments for playing indoors, ranked third.

The Rams had a 49-17 lead over the Vikings in the divisional round before the Vikings scored three late meaningless touchdowns. However, the other two games were close: an 11-6 NFC Championship Game in which the Buccaneers shut down Warner and the Rams offense, and then the 23-16 victory in Super Bowl XXXIV when the Titans finished 1 yard short.
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1950 Rams 43rd most most influential team

43. 1950 Los Angeles Rams​

Record: 9–3, lost NFL championship game​

Coach: Joe Stydahar
Hall of Famers: Joe Stydahar (HC), Tom Fears (WR), Elroy “Crazylegs” Hirsch (WR), Bob Waterfield (QB), Norm Van Brocklin (QB)


Why they mattered:​

In 1940, the Eagles became the first team in NFL history to throw the ball more than they ran it. The result was a 1–10 season. Ten years later, the Rams also went to the air on more than half of their plays, and became the first team in league history to enjoy a winning record by doing so.
Los Angeles went 9–3 and for the second consecutive year won the Western Conference. In the title game, the Rams visited the Browns in Cleveland’s first year as an NFL squad following the merger from the AAFC. Cleveland won, 30–28, on a field goal with 28 seconds remaining by future Hall of Fame Lou Groza.
Still, Los Angeles’s impact on the game is undeniable. The Rams featured a pair of Canton-bound flankers in Fears and Hirsch, who in 1950 combined for 14 receiving touchdowns. In one five-week stretch, Los Angeles averaged 50.2 points per game, including consecutive wins over the Colts and Lions where the Rams scored 70 and 65 points, respectively.
In 1951, the Rams rode a similar roster to a third consecutive NFL title game, this time defeating the Browns for their first championship on the West Coast.

Panel quote:​

“Clark Shaughnessy developed the Rams’ offense in 1948 and ’49, but he was gone in ’50 due to squabbles with ownership and other coaches. Line coach and former NFL player Joe Stydahar took over and simply let nature take its course. [The Rams] became the top offense in the history of the NFL to that point and remain one of the best to this day—known as the “Point-a-Minute Offense.” In fact, their 38.8 points per game average is still first in NFL history edging teams such as the 2013 Broncos and ’07 Patriots.” —John Turney, NFL historian; writer, Pro Football Journal

East West Shrine Game Measurements

OL continuity #s, and the anomaly that was 2022

We've heard the term "continuity" applied to the offensive line. It's hard to overstate the importance of this factor. While, of course, talent at individual positions is always key, the OL functions as a unit, and keeping the same 5 guys on the field game in and game out clearly impacts the offense's overall performance.

Continuity is a function of two factors: (1) clearly defined starters (i.e. knowing who the "best 5" are on the roster), and (2) health.

In 2021 and 2023, when the offense found success, we had both. In 2022, we had neither.
These numbers really illustrate this:

In 2021, the OL at each of the 5 positions with the most snaps (David Edwards, Austin Corbett, Brian Allen, Rob Havenstein, Andrew Whitworth) played 90.9% of the total snaps in the regular season.
In 2023, the OL at each of the 5 positions with the most snaps (Steve Avila, Coleman Shelton, A.J. Jackson, Kevin Dotson, Rob Havenstein) played 86.7% of the total snaps in the regular season.

In 2022, an overabundance of injuries and rotating fill-ins resulted in a top 5 (Rob Havenstein, Coleman Shelton, Matta Skura, Ty Nsekhe, Oday Aboushi) that accounted for only 58.0% of the total snaps (and that does not even factor in the insane number of combinations among the dozen or so OL who saw significant playing time).

There's only so much a team can do to ensure health but, clearly, there is a strong argument for "getting the band back" together and keeping the same starting 5 in 2024. At most, I might target one spot for an upgrade in the draft (less likely to do so in FA - our best FA option is re-signing Dotson!), but I like the idea of the unit staying pretty much intact.

How Do You Like Dan Campbell Now?

Yes @OldSchool I started another thread. For all of you who loved him and put him up a pedestal, but Brandon Staley did stupid things too and it got him thrown out of, well, what should be San Diego. Anyways, the Lions are up 24-10 in the 3rd quarter, easy FG to make it 27-10 and he goes for it because he is big bad Dan. Well, you dumbass, you cost your team a trip to the Super Bowl, where are you going, you one-eyed, one-horned, flyin' purple people eater dumbass?

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My idea of what Rams should do in the offseason

Our new DC

Move Aubrey Pleasant from DB coach to DC.

Outside free Agent to sign.

Who ever the Bills don't resign, due to they have cap issues. Which is either AJ Espensa or Shaq Lawson.

Our own FAs
Coleman Shelton C - Philly probably signs him, due to Kelce retiring.
Kevin Dotson RG - need to sign 4 years $28 million, $20 million guaranteed
Carson Wentz QB - need to sign, but no more than 1 year, $1.5 million
Carson Tinker LS - need to sign, but not more than 1, year $1.5 million
Demarcus Robinson WR - need to sign, but not more than 1 year, $2 million
Royce Freeman RB - Let him walk
Brett Maher K - need to sign, but not more than 1 year, $2 million
Ahkello Witherspoon CB - need to sign, but not more than 1 year, $2 million
John Johnson S - Let him walk
Duke Shelley CB- Let him walk
Troy Reeder LB - Let him walk
Tyler Johnson WR - Let him walk
Brycen Hopkins TE - need to sign, but not more than 1 year $1.5 million
Larrell Murchison EDGE - Let him walk
Christian Rozeboom LB RFA - sign for lowest tender for RFA
Michael Hoecht EDGE RFA - sign for lowest tender for RFA. Move to DE
Jonah Williams RFA -sign for lowest tender for RFA
Austin Trammell WR ERFA - sign for what ERFA's are worth
Jordan Fuller S - Let him walk
Tremayne Anchrum - Let him walk
Alaric Jackson LT RFA - sign for lowest tender for RFA
Ronnie Rivers RB ERFA - sign for what ERFA's are worth
Earnest Brown IV EDGE RFA - sign for what RFA's are worth

Rams draft if possible

1(19). Kool Aid McKinstry CB Alabama
2(52). Sedrick Van Pran C Georgia
3(83). Jonah Ellis Edge Utah
3(97). Malachi Moore S Alabama *
5(152). Erik Alt TE Iowa
5(153). Kaden Prather WR Maryland
6(190). Omar Speights ILB LSU
6(211). Sheridan Jones CB Clemson
6(213). Fabian Lovelett DT Florida State
6(216). Isiah Davis RB South Dakota State
6(217). Anim Dankwah OT Howard

* = comp pick for Raheem Morris

What Championship Sunday Told Me About Our Rams…

We’re not that far off.

None of these teams is without flaws and holes.

It’s no fluke that we went to the wire with the two conference runners-up… they are not out of our league.

As for the teams in the big game…neither is an unbeatable juggernaut.

We have a solid roster with some key vets returning, some young guys who will continue to improve, and the resources necessary to significantly improve the roster this offseason.

There are no guarantees in this game, but our Rams absolutely could be in the hunt next year.

At this point in the process, hard to ask for more than that.