http://www.packershome.com/forum/posts/t27253-Matchup--2018--Green-Bay-Packers-at-Los-Angeles-Rams
Rams- 38
Packers- 21
(7 Mason Crosby field goals)
We move the ball, but never seem to be able to score touchdowns.
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The season begins Sunday
Healthy team
13 days to prepare.
Packers run for 150+ yds.
Aaron throws for 350.
Defense gets 3 turnovers.
Packers 27
Rams 17
BOOK IT!
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The best part. If Packers do win, fans will still complain and say the Rams just had an off game.
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https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...w-aaron-rodgers-offense-jared-goff-sean-mcvay
Striking similarities between Packers, Rams suggest close game if Rodgers ignites
The difference between these two teams isn’t on defense despite LA’s big-name talent. If Green Bay’s offense plays to its potential, it can upset the Rams on the road.
By Peter_Bukowski
When the Green Bay
Packers look at the 2018
Los Angeles Rams, they must see the team this version of Green Bay was supposed to be. If
Aaron Rodgers hadn’t hurt his knee in Week 1, this matchup might look even more like a mirror image than it already does, as his lack of mobility has stunted the development of the offense, particularly in the red zone.
But even with those limitations, injuries to key skill players, and shuffling along the offensive line, the comparisons between the 7-0 Rams and the 3-2-1 Packers remain more apt than one would intuitively assume.
Coming into Sunday, the Rams had the No. 1 offense in football by total yards. The Packers were second. Wade Phillips’ defense was ranked 14th, with Mike Pettine’s squad coming in at 16th. The Packers have the No. 2 passing offense in the league by yardage, with
Jared Goff and company coming in fourth.
But as Pettine has noted already, yardage totals can be deceiving. By Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which accounts for opponent, the Rams boast the league’s second-ranked offense, while the Packers stand seventh.
Todd Gurley and the run game are the best in the league, while Green Bay’s stable of backs are fourth by DVOA.
The difference must be in the red zone then right? The Packers have struggled mightily scoring touchdowns instead of field goals. Except it’s not. Sean McVay’s team scores touchdowns at a marginally better rate (17th in the NFL) than the Packers (22nd). But it is true that the Rams have score more touchdowns than the Packers and get in the end zone more often than Green Bay relative to how often they settle for field goals.
McVay, with Goff, Gurley and Cooks et al, averages about one more play of 20+ yards per game more than the Packers (they have ten more total, but four of them came against the
49ers). When they get chunk plays, they go for touchdowns, whereas the Packers haven’t had the same kind of success.
Part of that is just lucky, the same way
Julio Jones can be the most physically dominant receiver in the league and can’t sniff the end zone, whereas as
Falcons rookie
Calvin Ridley can’t
stop finding paydirt. There’s some flukiness to it even if it’s true the Rams offense is really good. And it is.
The biggest difference right now is Jared Goff and the passing attack have been more efficient than the most efficient quarterback to ever play the game. Injuries robbed Rodgers of his ability to create outside the pocket and extend plays as consistently as he’d like. Losing two of the only three pass catchers he trusts also dented the continuity of the passing offense while early deficits robbed the Packers of any chance to be balanced in most of their games to this point.
If there’s a roadmap to success for the Packers this week, it’s simple: Green Bay gets 2016 Run the Table™ Rodgers with Cobb and Allison back from injury and the knee brace off. They get the version of the offense this team has hinted at lately, with consecutive 500-yard offensive games coming off the 420+ they hung on a very good
Bills defense.
If the Packers can get a little better big-play luck and improved red zone offense, it’s not unreasonable to think this game looks more like the
Seahawks or
Vikings game, where the Rams needed to win a shootout late.
Defensively, the two teams might as well be the
Spider-Man pointing meme, despite the obvious difference in big name talent. Here’s a look at the two teams by DVOA.
Packers defense
22nd in total DVOA
15th vs. the pass
28th vs. the run
Rams defense
17th in total DVOA
14th vs. the pass
26th vs. the run
Kirk Cousins lit this Rams defense up on a short week, though
Marcus Peters played hurt in that game.
Russell Wilson threw three touchdowns in a game LA won by just two, and even
Case Keenum threw for 300+ against the Rams in a three-point loss for the
Broncos. And had
Philip Rivers not suffered a handful of terrible drops, the
Chargers would have given the Rams a much better game.
If a virtuoso Rodgers game is what the Packers need to win, this Rams defense has shown itself susceptible to giving those games up against good quarterbacks with quality weapons. Green Bay clearly qualifies there. Early questions will be about whether this defense can play well enough to beat the Rams, but given what we’ve seen the Rams do with a statistically comparable defense, the real question should be: can the offense?
We’ve seen Rodgers do it for stretches this season even with the injuries. The second half against a very good Bears defense. The last drive against the 49ers. The would-be game-winning drive at the end of regulation vs. the Vikings. Even the no-punt performance against the Lions hints to how unstoppable this team can be moving the ball.
And we know what Rodgers looks like with an extra week to prepare, get healthy, and create some continuity. If this defense does only what it’s done all season and the offense plays to its potential, the Packers can absolutely beat the best team in the NFL. It won’t take a so-called “perfect” game to do it. But it will take an offensive performance better than we’ve seen to this point in the season from Green Bay.
In 2012, with the Packers dealing with similar doubters, a struggling offense, and a 2-3 record,
Aaron Rodgers went into Houston and answered any questions with a six touchdown performance against the 5-0 Texans.
Think it can’t happen again? No. 12 might have something to say about that.
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Except they have Aaron Donald
and the right side of our OL sucks (maybe Bulaga will be back to full health after the bye week?).
They have Todd Gurley and our OLBs cannot hold the edge to save their lives.
The rankings tell a story, but it just doesn’t apply here due to the particular match up disasters we face in this game.
Yes, if Rodgers goes Rodgers on them, we can totally win this game. But that’s our only hope, as far as I can see.
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I think the odds of Rodgers "igniting" and pulling out a win...
…are on par with Rodgers actually igniting from friction as Aaron Donald scrapes him across the turf like a match. So we’ve got a 50/50 chance would be my point if I were to have one.
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I dont like our chances.
Not one bit. Todd gurley is going to carve our sad sack run defense like a Thanksgiving turkey
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Rams have a boy named Suh - look out 12!
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Comparing opponents
DVOA has both offenses above average, but its important to note that it has the Packers at 13% above average while the Rams are around 33% above average. The Packers are as close to the average team in the league on offense as they are to the Rams. On defense they are very close though, Rams are about average and the Packers a slightly below.
Brian Burke’s EPA model has the Packers and Rams about he same level on defense, but on offense there is no comparison. The Rams are the best in the league, while the Packers are mediocre. I should say this is not updated for this week’s games, but it wouldn’t change much.
Ron Yurko’s EPA/success rate model shows a similar story. Here are the offenses in EPA per play (ie. how good have they been) and success rate (how consistently good have they been). The Rams are up at the top while the Packers are average.
The same plot showing the defenses (bottom left is better). Both the Packers and Rams have had similar success rate, although the Rams have a better EPA per play, maybe indicating they have given up fewer big plays?
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Striking similarities?
Is that a joke? The Packers have a dysfunctional running game/three-headed monster, that is led by its worst running back (in YPC and elusiveness) and a WR, who is Green Bay’s poor man’s version of an Austin Eckler or Tarik Cohen. IDC how well Williams supposedly blocks (and he misses block, too), the Rams have
the best running back in the NFL in Gurley. If McCarthy was the Rams’ HC he’d probably force Gurley into a time-share with a ‘blocking on third down’ RB like Williams on obvious pass plays.
The Rams have a superior OL and wide receivers. Unless, somebody wants to argue Cooks- Woods – Kupp is somehow less than Adams (who is the top receiver on either team), Randall (one great game and then disappear) Cobb (LOL) and Allison are somehow a superior WR trio. TE, who cares if you are the Rams, and Jimmy ‘One-TD’ Graham in Green Bay. On defense, is GBs thin line (featuring the fading Mike Daniels), but led by the budding All Pro, Clark is, as a unit, even with, or better than what the Rams field with Donald, Suh and Brockers.
Of course, the Packers
can upset Rams, and we hope they do. But, let’s stop the pretense that GB is somehow close to the Rams in talent and coaching. Or, has the hot-seated, Mike McCarthy, who can’t or more likely won’t even field his only elusive RB most of the time (just to show his All World QB who’s boss, is superior to McVay.
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McVay vs McCarthy
Oh man, that’s not even funny: one of the most creative offensive minds in the NFL today, against a guy who hasn’t had a new idea in at least 7 years – and counting. I’m guessing Gurley by the middle of the 1st quarter will have more touches than Aaron Jones the entire game. And that alone will keep me p%#&ed off for the rest of the week.
