The Goff-season Thread

[Mackeyser]

Depends on how many times you've made the recipe.

Also depends on if it's cooking or baking.

Cooking is art. I tend to not use recipes when I cook. Lil extra here, maybe sub out an ingredient there...

Baking is science. You better measure that stuff... Baking is stoichiometry with heat. Off by a little bit can drastically change the output.

 

[UKram]

Yes they have limitations. That's how numbers work though. You'll never find a flawless system. But that's better than no system. Your eyeball's or my eyeballs or anyone else's isn't a system. it's a perspective. That doesn't mean eyeballs aren't ever useful, but it should never take precedent over analytics. You have to marry the two but I'll always trust analytics more.

And as for the Ramsey thing. PFF will literally tell you that Ramsey is one of the best corners in the league, and that being the highest graded doesn't always mean you're the best. Covering different recievers, playing different teams, etc. They said after Ramsey signed his deal that he's a generational corner though.

Being the highest graded doesn’t mean your the best ????

Aren’t you arguing that our oline was “good” because pff said goff had 2.5 seconds to Throw

I mean that’s pretty much a double standard my man

 

[UKram]

He wouldn’t have played if Wolford didn’t get his bell rung.

And maybe we don’t make next round ... see we can both play this game ...I mean I like wolfords
Spark and fire ... I don’t like his 9 points output and the fact he wasn’t playing against Murray for 90% of the game

 

[UKram]

I am in the boat of -

Goff has shown us what he has.....and that is he is a solid QB capable of good and bad games, but with a higher talent ranking than your average Joe QB in the league.

What does that mean?

We can win with him, but we will lose almost as often and it requires a lot of maintenance by McVay.

If I were to spitball the issue between Goff and McVay......go back to how often we heard McVay had to hold Goff's hand to get him to realize his talent and win games......maybe McVay is done with doing that and after seeing his offense under a different type of QB. Maybe he has realized he wants something else.......maybe he thinks his offense can be better with someone other than Goff.

A different qb who scored 9 points

 

[Ram_Rally]

Being the highest graded doesn’t mean your the best ????

Aren’t you arguing that our oline was “good” because pff said goff had 2.5 seconds to Throw

I mean that’s pretty much a double standard my man

Nah they were two different stats from two different orgs. But in terms of PFF grades specifically , they say that they understand that a player can be performing well and still not be the "better" player. The same way getting a higher test score doesn't mean one person is smarter than the other necessarily.

 

[Ram_Rally]

a) they don't do in depth analysis. They do tally aggregation. They cannot do in depth analysis because they don't know the play or the progressions within the play.

b) as has been said, not all of the PFF graders have a football background. After YEARS of criticism Collinsworth and company decided to upgrade their stat collecting crew, but they use a LOT of people and you have to pay for experience. When PFF first started, it was literally fans doing it. Literally. They volunteered and got some minor consideration. So even with PFF's basic training, they are making grades when they have no idea what constitutes a "win" or even if a play was a positive or not. Over the course of a season, it averages out, but even then, expressly because their numbers lack context and depth, it's barely a basic evaluation tool. Barely.

c) roll outs unless the DE/OLB on that side blows it up will take nearly 3s if not longer. They are a longer play by design. McVay pulled out all the tricks to bolster the OL including almost always going max protect (meaning the RB and TE/TEs stay in to block instead of going out of routes to stress the D and give the QB more targets.

I don't understand how pff is a bunch of no nothing's in terms of football and yet the nfl actually used them for football. How do you create a system to grade a particular thing, get paid by companies to grade that thing, and have no clue what you're doing? Like I read that they get to watch the all-22 when they grade. How can they grade it if they don't know they they're seeing? Here's the Bengals offensive line coach in 2017 talking about how he looks at pff grades. And yes he is well respected despite being with the Bengals at the time lol


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Smith/status/846683473129689088

 

[Ram_Rally]

Here's an example. Neither DVOA or the PFF stats take into account the Rams staying in max protect as often as they do. That means 2 fewer eligible receivers out in routes.

We're constantly leaving the RB and TE in to block.

So the data is helpful, but it's not singularly illustrative.

Okay but In the scenario, if they're in max protect and they succeed then shouldn't the qb then have time? Even if they're masking our offensive line issues with play action, roll outs, max protect, etc, shouldn't that give the qb more time (since pff is "grading" their blocking on those plays as good) shouldn't the qb be able to produce better in those plays?

 

[Ram_Rally]

Actually I deleted that part but it posted it anyway. The other paragraph is my point. I always forget to preview. my bad

Me too honestly lol. Debates ln this thread feels like wildfire. I can't keep up

 

[TexasRam]

But it's possible that they do have enough experience to develop a working system right? That's not to say they're so good at it that they good do the coaches job, but that they do have a higher understanding of it than most. Correct? I mean they actually work with teams. So I'm sure they have at least some respect from people in the building? They even say it themselves. They don't know the assignment "100 percent" but they do have an understanding.

The proof is in the pudding. Until PFF stops with these idiotic ratings that show they know less then the average informed football fan then you don't need to ask questions regarding knowing assignments and such.

I am as much of a data driven guy as the next, but as someone stated they gave Ramsey a 50 rating on a day he completely shut down a Pro Bowl WR. There are 1000's of examples like these every year and maybe 100's every week. I've watched every Ram game over the last 4 years rewinding as many times as needed to ascertain where offensive plays broke down and how each blocker did. From just a pure fan perspective, without inside knowledge I can tell you I followed PFF's weekly rating very closely and compared it to my own and found they consistently did lazy analysis. They would catch a few key plays and make a grade more aligned with highlights and general impressions then a play by play breakdown of every play. They do that to this day.

An important thing to realize is they are a business. They make millions off fan subscriptions and and other means based on being an "authority". If their reputation was tanked then they could not survive. So what you read is their attempt at saving their reputation.

And I don't believe you will ever see teams offer up plays and assignments. Think of the ramifications of that. It's hard enough to keep the Belichicks of the world form stealing them. Same reason teams bring on opponents former players and in our case our former coaches.

 

[MachS]

I agree.

Also, I think people REALLY underestimate Goff's value around the NFL. Goff's resume would mean 2 1st rounders or a high 1 and high 2.

Rest assured there are teams out there that KNOW what @jrry32 was saying about the development time of a pocket QB and the time with McVay will be considered valuable.

Also, what other QB is available that's been to a Super Bowl, been to 2 Pro Bowls, led the #1 offense twice and has the second most wins... all in the last 4 years?

That's an amazing resume and while fans may think Goff's a ham sandwich, rest assured teams know that he's a great kid with a good head on his shoulders who may not have been a long term fit in this situation, but should have a long future in the NFL.

Goff would be gangbusters in Indy and I would only do that trade if we had an agreement in principle for Watson.

Yea I think he'll bring pretty good value..more than a 1st for sure he is only 26. But it's hard to say how many will truly be interested given his contract. But I think the team that trades for him would only need to pay him ~$25M next season so its not that bad.

Regarding Indy, I think thats a legit landing spot. Who has studied Goff more than Frank Reich? Not many I'd bet. He was with Doug P in Philly in 2016 when they had to evaluate both Wentz and Goff when they had the #2 pick of the draft. Philly has said they would've drafted Goff if we went Wentz with the first pick.

We have maybe the best GM in the NFL at getting trades done. He's not afraid to wheel and deal and you know him and McVay both are very aggressive when they target a player they like. But beyond Watson I dont really know what the plan would be? Trade up in the draft and get a rookie McVay loves? If we could net a 1st rounder + something for Goff then we could maybe land Watson if he tells Houston he wants to play here. It's hard to project what McSnead is thinking regarding who the replacement would be.

 

[Ram_Rally]

The proof is in the pudding. Until PFF stops with these idiotic ratings that show they know less then the average informed football fan then you don't need to ask questions regarding knowing assignments and such.

I am as much of a data driven guy as the next, but as someone stated they gave Ramsey a 50 rating on a day he completely shut down a Pro Bowl WR. There are 1000's of examples like these every year and maybe 100's every week. I've watched every Ram game over the last 4 years rewinding as many times as needed to ascertain where offensive plays broke down and how each blocker did. From just a pure fan perspective, without inside knowledge I can tell you I followed PFF's weekly rating very closely and compared it to my own and found they consistently did lazy analysis. They would catch a few key plays and make a grade more aligned with highlights and general impressions then a play by play breakdown of every play. They do that to this day.

An important thing to realize is they are a business. They make millions off fan subscriptions and and other means based on being an "authority". If their reputation was tanked then they could not survive. So what you read is their attempt at saving their reputation.

And I don't believe you will ever see teams offer up plays and assignments. Think of the ramifications of that. It's hard enough to keep the Belichicks of the world form stealing them. Same reason teams bring on opponents former players and in our case our former coaches.

Again though, they are employed by each NFL team. I don't think nfl teams are chomping at the bit to hire your or me lol. So no, they're not average informed football fans. And again, here is a well respected offensive line coach showing how he uses them


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Smith/status/846683473129689088

 

[TexasRam]

Again though, they are employed by each NFL team. I don't think nfl teams are chomping at the bit to hire your or me lol. So no, they're not average informed football fans. And again, here is a well respected offensive line coach showing how he uses them


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Smith/status/846683473129689088

Yea with all due respect this is in my opinion PFF brand advertising. Collinsworth and others have lots of money dumped into this thing. You should expect videos like this, its part of business. The kickbacks to those willing to endorse the product is going to be significant.

Especially when you see a refined video such as this.

Collinsworth has money and connections. A Coach salary can be (let's just say) nicely supplemented by some side money.

If you think this type of thing isn't common place you should research American Politics and the money going on behind the scenes. How do you think so called public servants become multi millionaires off 100k salaries.

Again, the proof is in the pudding on the grading system. But the stat collection might be useful when stacked up against other sources. It gives a starting point to look at things and a point of reference from a perspective. It's still remains superficial and insufficient when considering context.

But I think any fan that has watched the NFL for 40 years and carefully watches one team multiple times a week has just as good or a better chance of evaluation as some of these yahoos. Especially when an entire fan base agrees a PFF score is way off what we saw with our own eyes. And this happens all the time.

 

[Ram_Rally]

Yea with all due respect this is in my opinion PFF brand advertising. Collinsworth and others have lots of money dumped into this thing. You should expect videos like this, its part of business. The kickbacks to those willing to endorse the product is going to be significant.

Especially when you see a refined video such as this.

Collinsworth has money and connections. A Coach salary can be (let's just say) nicely supplemented by some side money.

That's a of speculating though. It's a promo testimonial but it's from a real coach. And we have no reason or evidence to show that he was paid off. And I hate to sounds like a broken record but pff is employed by every team. I doubt that it's some grand scheme where collinsworth is actually pulling all the strings and strong arming the entire NFL

 

[Mackeyser]

Okay but In the scenario, if they're in max protect and they succeed then shouldn't the qb then have time? Even if they're masking our offensive line issues with play action, roll outs, max protect, etc, shouldn't that give the qb more time (since pff is "grading" their blocking on those plays as good) shouldn't the qb be able to produce better in those plays?

More time doesn't equate to anything other than more time. doesn't make receivers be open or open throwing lanes.

Look, PFF has come a long way from their initial evaluations when no one in the league paid them for much beyond raw data. That said, I'll continue to argue and make the same point that Belichick made which is that unless you're in a team's building and you know the call, you CANNOT know the player's responsibility and as such, any "grade" is going to be at best under informed.

The best I can do is to say that PFF is a basic tool and any FO or coach who uses them as the be all will shortly be out of a job.

You can sell them all you like, I'm not buying. Push all you like, I and others are giving you reasons based on the inherent limitations of both what and how they collect the data.

Also, as someone who built networks, if the PFF data was really all that, there'd already be a database tool for teams to create profiles from college players so they'd KNOW with a level of certainty not seen in the modern age of who will succeed making it to the next level. There is no computer modeling for this because the data isn't contextual enough at this time to create accurate models. REAL analytics is getting better and better at determining such things with greater and greater accuracy, but what must precede that is contextual data and the NFL isn't there, yet.

They're a helluva lot farther along than when PFF started, but again, if PFF were all that, you wouldn't need scouting departments or GMs. You'd just create an algorithm for team building and execute that.

 

[dieterbrock]

Also, what other QB is available that's been to a Super Bowl, been to 2 Pro Bowls, led the #1 offense twice and has the second most wins... all in the last 4 years?

Sounds like a dream scenario. I'd say let's go out and get that guy
Oh, wait a minute...

 

[Dxmissile]

I haven’t been the biggest Goff supporter but his contract is hard to maneuver around. So I say let’s bring in Kaepernick. It’s a low cost option he’s been to a Super Bowl and he will definitely push Goff. At the end of the day either Goff rise to the challenge or McVay can really massage his ego by resurrecting Kaep

 

[Mackeyser]

Welp, grab your popcorn...

As for Kaep as a QB, the problem was that the book was out on him... he was apparently a roll out/half the field QB and teams adjusted.... crash on the run and guard the half of the field he was looking or running to.

I don't think he's gonna play football again for umpteen reasons.

I wonder how long this goes before it gets locked?

 

[sjm1582002]

Please, no.

 

[ottoman89]

Why isn't this post in blue font? It's a satire post right?

 

[FrantikRam]

I think it's reasonable to recognize that our OL wasn't bad and that Goff needs to be better. Where I differ from many is in his my belief that volatility is a reality of life with a young pocket passer. So I don't see a broken QB in Goff. I see a guy who can continue to grow and move past most of his issues. Interior pressure will always be a problem for him, so we need to work hard to solve that. The rest of the issues this year are fixable.

My thought watching him as the year progressed was that he presses when he doesn't feel the offense is performing. And when he presses, he makes decisions he knows better than to make. It seemed that sitting his ass on the bench in Week 17 (even if the injury was the reason) caused him to play smarter in the playoffs, but he was still playing too conservatively at times. He needs to find the middle ground between hero ball and calculated risks.

I don't think Jared is broken. I think the OL issues along with defensive adjustments that him and McVay didn't handle well for too much of the season were the culprit for his play in 2019. In 2020, I think we took a calculated (and smart) risk with the Cooks trade, but we overestimated what Everett and Reynolds could provide (credit to @Merlin for articulating that well). Without a big-play threat he trusted, Jared and the offense were reduced to a less explosive unit, and unfortunately, the issue I noted above manifested itself.

What can we do? Upgrade on Blythe and bring in a deep threat this offseason. I don't think we need a three-down player as a deep threat, but it would be nice to have a guy to rotate in who can take the top off a defense. I believe that Whit (if he plays like he did this year) and Hav are a top 5, if not top 3, OT duo in the NFL. I'm much higher on Hav than most. I think Corbett and Edwards are both above average to good starters. If we can get a guy in there next to them who doesn't have games where he just dominated, I think that'll go a long way towards solving our problems. If the interior OL holds up, I expect Goff will do well. Plus, Cam Akers emerged big time late in the year. If we have a top HB to pair with Goff again, I expect we'll see a lot of our offensive problems dissipate.

What can Goff do? He needs to work on his game. Keep improving the mechanics. Watch tons of film to reduce the chances that he's fooled by coverages or pressure packages. Prepare himself mentally for next season. And be ready to come out smart but aggressive. Nobody doubts Jared's ability to throw the football. People are just too quick to jump on the mental game of young QBs. I think Goff will get there. Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. weren't always the guys we know now. They got there through hard work, experience, and playing a lot of football.

I am finally calming down about this year. It's not healthy or productive to keep harping on it.

Props to you for the Manning/Goff comparison - gives me hope for next year.