1. Defensive tackle Jason Jones, 25 years old.
Jones will easily command the biggest contract on this list, but his price tag likely would've been far more exorbitant had he been available in any previous year. As the Titans moved away from Jim Washburn's old "Wide-9" defensive line technique and toward a scheme emphasizing size in the front four, the 6-foot-5, 276-pound Jones was forced learn strong-side end during a lockout-shortened offseason after dominating at three-technique tackle in his first three seasons. Jones set career lows in sacks and tackles per game while taking an enormous step back in overall effectiveness. He was uncomfortable at the new position and has made that clear this offseason.
Though built angularly for an inside pass rusher, Jones is much more Darnell Dockett than Justin Tuck. He is a one-gap penetrator with an explosive lower half (4.67 forty, 10'3" broad jump) and his best football ahead of him. In Jones' last season as a full-time interior defender (2010), Pro Football Focus graded him as the league's No. 6 overall defensive tackle and No. 1 inside rusher. The Rams and Eagles are sensible landing spots for Jones because new St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher drafted Jones in Tennessee, and Washburn now oversees Philadelphia's defensive line.
Prediction: Rams on a four-year, $28 million contract.
2. Cornerback Terrell Thomas, 27 years old.
A long-armed corner-safety hybrid coming out of USC, Thomas emerged as the Giants' starting right cornerback in his second season, beating out former first-round pick Aaron Ross. Thomas displayed elite playmaking ability with 10 interceptions, five forced fumbles, a pair of sacks, and 34 breakups in 2009-2010. Unfortunately, Thomas tore his right ACL during the 2011 preseason and missed his entire contract year. He previously tore the same ACL as a college freshman.
The silver lining for Thomas is that he tore the ligament early enough in the 2011 season that he'll be a full-go by 2012 training camp. Thomas resumed running on January 18. While by no means a shutdown cover man, when healthy Thomas possesses every trait NFL teams seek in a No. 2 corner. He is an efficient tackler and has sufficient ball skills to capitalize when opponents attack him in coverage. The Giants have prioritized re-signing Thomas over incumbent starter and fellow free agent Ross, a sign that they are well aware of Thomas' superior skills. A short-term, prove-it deal makes sense in New York, although Thomas could fare far better if he hits the open market.
Prediction: Giants on a one-year, $4 million contract.
3. Wide receiver Robert Meachem, 27 years old.
The perception of Meachem is that he's a one-trick pony deep threat. A rotational receiver who couldn't overcome Devery Henderson for consistent playing time in New Orleans. Meachem can certainly take the top off a defense, holding a career yards-per-reception average of 16.1. He ran a 4.39 forty at 6-foot-2, 210 coming out of Tennessee. 35 of Meachem's 141 catches have gone for 20-plus yards, good for a 24.8 20-yard rate that compares favorably to fellow top free agents Mario Manningham (23.4), Marques Colston (19.2), Reggie Wayne (18.1), and Pierre Garcon (15.4). Meachem has also been part of a receiver-committee approach with the Saints. He played 55.6 percent of New Orleans' offensive snaps in 2009, 48.9 percent in 2010, and 65.5 in 2011.
Meachem may be capable of more than his past statistics and role illustrate, however. He was always the Saints' best blocking receiver, playing over Colston in all one-wideout sets, and has been charged with just 11 career drops by Pro Football Focus. The Boston Globe reported in February that pro scouts consider Meachem a superior free agent to Colston as a less scheme-dependent receiver who could produce at a higher rate in an offense that utilized him differently. Either Meachem is going to be a steal on the open market, or he will generate more interest than anyone expects.
Prediction: 49ers on a three-year, $13 million contract.
4. Offensive tackle Anthony Collins, 26 years old.
Collins was a surprise early entrant into the 2008 draft after protecting Kansas QB Todd Reesing's blind side as a junior. He had just four years of football experience after taking up the sport as a high school senior. Collins earned playing time as a fourth-round rookie, however, holding his own in six starts to close out the year. Collins spent most of the ensuing three seasons as Cincinnati's "swing" tackle behind LT Andrew Whitworth and RT Andre Smith. Though Collins has never played full time, he's racked up 18 starts, six at left tackle and a dozen on the right. Collins is 6-foot-5, 315, and athletic enough for a zone-blocking scheme. His best NFL position is right tackle.
This year's tackle market is incredibly thin, driving up the demand for Collins. Only Jared Gaither, Demetrius Bell, and likely Cardinals cap casualty Levi Brown project as surefire 2012 starters. Collins falls in line as the No. 4 tackle available. The Dolphins are desperate for a right tackle upgrade after Marc Colombo flopped in the role, and new defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle saw Collins practice on a daily basis in Cincinnati. He could put in a good word at a position of need.
Prediction: Dolphins on a four-year, $14 million contract.
5. Offensive guard Chilo Rachal, 26 years old.
The 39th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Rachal had the look of a long-term building block when he overtook Tony Wragge for a starting job as a rookie. Rachal seemed to shake off a sophomore slump by grading out as Pro Football Focus' No. 2 run-blocking guard behind only Carl Nicks in 2010. Rachal lost his footing and ultimately his job when Jim Harbaugh took over as 49ers coach in 2011, however. Benched by Harbaugh at halftime of Week 3, Rachal spent the rest of the year as a special teamer and jumbo-set option. Adam Snyder was Harbaugh's starter at right guard.
Rachal will appeal primarily to power-running teams because he's a 6-foot-5, 323-pound mauler who's been inconsistent in pass protection. Redskins O-Line coach Chris Foerster, Rachal's position coach in 2008 and 2009, may want to take another crack at a talented old pupil, however. If a zone-blocking team like Washington is willing to sacrifice a little athleticism at any offensive line position, it's right guard. Rachal should come pretty cheaply and has dominating potential. Incumbent RG Chris Chester could kick over to left guard after struggling mightily last season.
Prediction: Redskins on a one-year, $2.75 million contract.
6. Weak-side linebacker Erin Henderson, 25 years old.
As is often the case with undrafted free agents, Henderson made his early-career mark on kick and punt coverage, playing sparingly in Minnesota's base defense. Promoted into the starting lineup last season, Henderson broke out for career highs in tackles (70) and forced fumbles (2) while grading out as Pro Football Focus' No. 3 run-stopping 4-3 outside linebacker, behind only Von Miller and Jarret Johnson. Henderson was used strictly as a two-down player, but packs a wallop at 6-foot-3, 244 and ran respectable forty times of 4.73 and 4.74 coming out of Maryland. Henderson has extensive background with new Jets defensive line coach Karl Dunbar, a position coach in Minnesota for the last six seasons. The Jets need to replace inside 'backer Bart Scott.
Prediction: Jets on a three-year, $10.5 million contract.
7. Tight end Martellus Bennett, 25 years old.
The youngest player on this list, Bennett entered the NFL as an immature 21-year-old second-round pick. While he drew the ire of Cowboys officials more than once for questionable off-field decisions, Bennett has encountered no legal issues and still possesses plenty of upside. Bennett is 6-foot-7, 255 and ran a forty time in the 4.6s at the 2008 Combine. His production levels were never where Dallas wanted them to be, but Bennett has quietly emerged as one of the league's premier blocking tight ends. The Dolphins and Bengals have showed interest in Bennett at past trade deadlines. Miami may cut incumbent starter Anthony Fasano due to a $3.6 million salary.
Prediction: Dolphins on a two-year, $6 million contract.
8. Running back Justin Forsett, 26 years old.
Though purely a scatback at 5-foot-8, 198, Forsett has settled in as a highly efficient, versatile pro. Forsett's career 4.63 YPC average compares favorably to top-end free agent backs Peyton Hillis (4.22), Michael Bush (4.18), and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (4.05), and Forsett's receiving/pass protection combo makes him an ideal fit as a third-down specialist. Decreased opportunities in Seattle last season, largely due to Leon Washington's unearned bigger role, may result in diminished market value for Forsett. Still highly regarded by ex-Seahawks and current Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, Forsett is a strong fit for Oakland's new zone-blocking scheme. He could give Taiwan Jones veteran competition for the No. 2 back job behind Darren McFadden.
Prediction: Raiders on a two-year, $5 million contract.
9. Defensive end Marcus Benard, 26 years old.
Originally undrafted out of Jackson State, Benard flashed too much pass-rush ability in workouts for the Browns to leave him unprotected on their practice squad. Waived at Cleveland's final cuts in 2009, he was signed to the 53-man roster two months later. Despite playing sparingly, Benard racked up 11 combined sacks and 42 tackles during his first two seasons. After a slow start to the 2011 campaign following a team-requested offseason weight gain, Benard was unluckily involved in an October motorbike accident that ended his season. Benard was not tendered as a restricted free agent this winter and is free to sign with any team. At 6-foot-2, 256, Benard's best position can be 4-3 nickel end or 3-4 outside 'backer. He's got a natural gift for pressuring the passer, and has past coaching staff ties to the Bucs (DL coach Bryan Cox) and Cowboys (DC Rob Ryan).
Prediction: Buccaneers on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.
10. Wide receiver Eddie Royal, 25 years old.
Royal exploded onto the NFL scene as a rookie in 2008, ranking eighth in the league in receptions (91) as the flanker and slot maven in Mike Shanahan's offense. Miscast since as a Deion Branch-type outside wideout under Josh McDaniels, and dogged by injuries as a part-time player last year, Royal's market value has sunk to the point where he'll be cheap to sign. Though undersized by NFL standards at 5-foot-10, 188, Royal has incredibly quick feet and plenty of long speed (4.39 forty). He's a tailor-made slot receiver for offenses that frequently go three-wide. With Shanahan in Washington and 33-year-old Santana Moss on his last legs, Royal's old coach would be a logical pursuer. Particularly if the Skins miss out on the top end of this year's free agent receiver class.
Prediction: Redskins on a one-year, $2.5 million contract.