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Chiefs vs. Rams: How the Chiefs defense beats Los Angeles
Come down to the Lab to find out how the Chiefs can stop the Rams offense this week.
By Craig Stout
The defense put a hurting on a bad offense last week, but faces almost the polar opposite this week. The Rams throw
many different things at a defense — pretty much exclusively out of the same 11 personnel. That means coordinators aren’t able to key on specific players or personnel, and with the Rams showing so many looks from so few alignments, defensive coordinators have their work cut out for them.
Quarterback Jared Goff — now in his third season — leads the Rams offense. He’s already over 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. He takes good care of the ball, too — having thrown just six interceptions so far. He’s an accurate quarterback that likes to throw the deep ball, and he typically avoids risky throws.
At running back, the Rams get to line up the best running back in the league:
Todd Gurley. In his second year under McVay, Gurley is on pace for another year of over 2000 total yards and 19+ touchdowns. He’s fast, he’s strong and he’s agile. He’s just 100 percent
ridiculous.
At wide receiver, the Rams just took a bit of a hit when they lost
Cooper Kupp for the season. Despite missing some time, he had accounted for 20 percent of the Rams’ passing targets this season. He’ll be a huge loss.
The Rams will try to replace him with Josh Reynolds. Brandin Cooks is a good route runner and deep threat, and
Robert Woods is a very good possession receiver that’s great with the ball in his hands. Tight end is the only position where the Rams regularly swap out personnel, with both
Tyler Higbee and
Gerald Everett getting plenty of looks in the offense.
The Rams offensive line is quite good, ranking first in the league in
Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards formula. The interior of Roger Saffold,
John Sullivan and
Austin Blythe has paved the way to a league-best 5.5 ALY up the middle.
Left tackle
Andrew Whitworth is one of the best in the league, and the Rams rank first in runs to the left side of the line. Meanwhile, right tackle
Rob Havenstein — along with the Chiefs’ very own
Mitchell Schwartz — is among the best in the league. Havenstein hasn’t been penalized even once this season.
How to defend
Routes against single-high safety coverages
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The Chiefs defense runs single high safety looks — Cover 1 or Cover 3 — roughly 72 percent of the time they see 11 personnel in the passing game. That includes end-of-the-game prevent defenses and soft zones on long down and distance situations. Unless Bob Sutton throws a change-up this week — similar to the
Cincinnati Bengals game — we should expect to see a lot of single high again this week.
While the Rams are good attacking any coverage shell, they do an excellent job with finding space against middle of the field closed looks. In this play, the Rams motion across the formation and find that the defense is in man coverage. Off the snap, the boundary safety spins down as a robber and the defense is in a Cover 1 shell.
Cooks does well to beat the press routing him inside, and as he approaches the 10-yard mark in his route, he opens his hips like he’s running a post route across the face of the deep safety. That holds the deep safety inside, and Cooks makes a cut to the corner route. The opening is there for a deep throw to the corner, and Goff is able to hit it.
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This is just a fantastic call against Cover 3. The strong side number one runs a 9 route, which occupies the cornerback in his deep-third zone. The tight end chips the rush, then runs an out route, which occupies the underneath zone defender. Kupp runs an up-and-out, and due to the route distribution, doesn’t have anyone covering him.
If the apex defender underneath had gotten more depth to track Kupp’s route and the hook had tracked the tight end’s out route, the weak-side number one coming across the formation would have come open with room to run. Even though Kupp is out, this is a play that any member of the Rams receiving corps can — and will — run.
If the Chiefs want to stay in their single high looks this week, running Sutton’s Cover 3 match concepts might prove effective. Bailing to the deep third helps protect against the Cover 1 corner route shown above, and the match ability underneath would be able to track those route distributions that would otherwise find space in the Cover 3 seams. Sutton has done that often enough this season that we just might see a heavy dosage of it this week.
Rub routes/pick plays
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One of the benefits of running condensed formations and bunches is the ability to create traffic that produce natural screens with route distributions. The Rams do it often — and to great effect — out of their tight bunches. Since the receivers are lined up so tight to the tackle box, crossing routes through the middle of the field against man coverage result in defenders having to fight through hook defenders while trying to track the Rams’ explosive receiving corps.
But it’s not just out of trips that the Rams run these pick routes. As shown here, they throw them out of just about every alignment they can. With Kupp lined up as an H-back, the Rams kick him out into the flat against Cover 1. As the defense is in man, Cooks runs a deep clear-out, and Woods runs a slant to pick the defensive back covering Kupp. Kupp is into space with the ball in his hands, and all he has to do is turn on the jets to get to the end zone.
It is absolutely paramount that the Chiefs switch or banjo this week. Even though the Chiefs implemented it regularly last year, Sutton hasn’t shown much of it this year. We saw last week that the Chiefs’ inability to switch cost them a touchdown against
David Johnson and the Cardinals. That
will cost them yardage and touchdowns if they’re unable to make that adjustment this week.
McVay is an absolute wizard at getting players open and making easier reads for Goff — regardless of who the receiver is on the other end. If the Chiefs aren’t able to switch and transition coverage out of these rub routes, they’ll be playing right into the Rams game plan.
Jet sweeps
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McVay
loves to run jet sweeps. Expect five or six handoffs to Rams receivers throughout the course of Monday night’s game. What makes them more dangerous is that they run them out of condensed formations, which keeps the defense compressed.
On this play, Cooks motions to the short side of the field, making it a 2x2 alignment. The defense is in a 3-3 formation and has a single high safety with a box safety over the tight end on Cooks’ side of the field. Cooks runs the sweep and clears the play side edge, and he’s got the entire field to use his speed and get to the pylon before the two defensive backs can get off their blocks to pursue the ball carrier.
The Rams run so many jet sweeps that defenses
have to respect every jet motion. And they run jet sweeps to just about every wide receiver on the roster. With a back like Gurley, it’s hard to commit to defending the jet sweep, as the Rams will absolutely
prey on hesitation by the linebackers — especially if the defense is in the Chiefs’ preferred single high formations. Here, McVay took advantage of a tendency to play a box safety over the tight end — like the Chiefs do regularly — to shift the balance of the run defense away from the jet sweep.
The Chiefs are going to have to commit to stopping Gurley, so the force defenders out of these alignments are going to have to step up to make the stop, or prevent the receivers from using their speed in the open field. The Chiefs defensive backs and edge rushers will have to be very conscious of their keys and close quickly to turn these run plays back inside or make the stop.
Misdirection out of similar alignments
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The reason why the Rams offense is so difficult to defend is that they run largely similar alignments for the majority of the game, but will show a great many looks out of those alignments. For a defense, identifying a tendency pre-snap from McVay’s offense is nearly impossible.
Shown above are two plays from two consecutive drives by the Rams offense. In both, the Rams are lined up in a tight 3x1 alignment. The first shows Woods on an end around action, but the Rams hand the ball off to Gurley for a gain of nine while running at the bunch.
The back-side linebacker is frozen due to the end around action, and he’s unable to attack Gurley. On the second play, the Rams run a toss end around, with Gurley and Woods overlapping at the toss angle. This freezes the strong side linebackers, and it puts Woods in space on the run with a linebacker to beat.
The Rams will build on these concepts — out of the same alignments and motions — throughout the course of the game. It’s up to the defense to stay sound in their assignments, and try to limit the damage when the Rams
do implement misdirection.
The defense will have opportunities to bring down the ball carrier in space if they stay true to their assignments against these misdirections — they just have to make sure they tackle securely to bring down the player and limit the yardage.
Goff under pressure
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One of the few weaknesses of the Rams offense is Goff’s inability to be effective outside the pocket. While that’s true of any quarterback, Goff is especially poor when he’s pushed off his spot and his rhythm is broken.
The Rams offensive line is very good, but Whitworth was still beaten inside a couple of times last week against the
Seattle Seahawks. On this play, he oversets, and the rusher is able to cut back underneath the defender with an inside rip.
Goff hasn’t even hit the top of his drop before the rush flashes across his face. He panics and turns his back to the field, running into more pressure by the defensive tackle. As he’s being brought down, he spins and chucks an underhand pass into space.
As shown in these examples, the Rams implement lots of five- and seven-step drops to allow longer-developing routes to get open. Goff needs time to see these routes develop and to be able to hit the windows they create.
While the Rams will chip the Chiefs’ pass rushers with their tight ends, running backs and slot receivers,
Dee Ford and
Justin Houston should be able to find some minimal success with a good plan that sets up outside rushes with power counters. If Chris Jones can continue his high rate of play, Goff
will abandon the play and make very ill-advised decisions.
The bottom line
We’re 2,000 words into this week’s post, and I’ve barely even scratched the surface of what the Rams do on offense. Hell, I’ve barely
mentioned all-world running back Todd Gurley when going over the things McVay does schematically.
Gurley is going to get his, there’s no doubt. The Chiefs struggle to stop the run even without the window dressing that McVay puts on the run game — never mind the quality blocking that he’ll receive from a very good offensive line. I fully expect Gurley to have a day similar to or better than the one that
David Johnson had last weekend against the Chiefs. He’s just too good to be held to less than that by this Chiefs defense.
The real question is if the Chiefs can keep the rest of the weapons on this defense in check. Leaning on their match coverages and switching out of picks and rubs will help nullify a lot of the Rams short passing game, as well as help protect against those routes attacking the Chiefs single-high looks. That extra split second that Goff may have to hold onto the ball might be the difference between Cooks with the ball in space and Goff running panicked out of the pocket.
We can’t pretend that Sutton is going to scheme a low-scoring game this week based on what we’ve seen in the 2018 season. The Rams are too explosive, dynamic, and well coached to
really shut them down. However, if Sutton can get his players to stay assignment-sound on early downs against the Rams run game, the Chiefs might be able to force a few third-and-longs on Monday night — a spot where the Chiefs defense is having a nearly 70 percent success rate.
This game has a high likelihood of being a shootout, so getting a small handful of stops may be all that’s needed to win against one of the best offenses in the NFL. If Sutton throws a couple of wrenches in the mix against this Rams team, we might see just that.
And if this Chiefs defense holds the Rams under 28 points this week? We’re throwing a party in Bob Sutton’s honor.
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I was watching the weekly NFL playbook over this game and there was an EYE popping stat of the Rams defense.. they are giving up more than 5 ypc which is ridiculous. Your 28 point mark is a good number and I think we can do it but it’s going to come down to our offense playing methodical and cramming the ball down their throat. I also expect Andy to run much of what he did against that Jaguars defense…. aka tons of misdirection and motion early to tire that D out.
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I don't think either of these defenses can stop the other's offense with traditional approaches/schemes
and if that’s true, this is the week to mix things up defensively. Abandon the "bend don’t break" conservative approach for this one. I’d suggest some well timed safety blitzes and even some corner blitzes.
Anything that could potentially get a key sack or a key turnover could potentially decide the game by providing an extra possession for the offense. (Same applies for the Rams defense). If a big play results from a poorly timed blitz, oh well – you know the Rams are going to score on 5 or 6 drives regardless, right?
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The Rams offense has been very good picking up blitzes and hitting hot routes.
You’d get one or two, but I think you’re asking to start a track meet with that philosophy. It might be one anyway, but if there’s a game to try to hold the opposition to some field goals, this is it.
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Pressure with 4 defenders rushing will be the key.
I’ve noticed even before this article, (Very well written Craig) that Goff will take just a bit longer sometimes before throwing. He’s used to 3 to 4 seconds of clean pocket thanks to his O-Line.
If Ford/Houston/Jones/Bailey can get pressure, we’ll get a few stops. What we really need though is for the Offense to give us lead to keep them from just feeding Gurley in the run game over and over. We need 12+ pressures on the QB to win this one.
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It's not a terribly original opinion
but I think this game will come down to a single turnover.
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Really worried
About Gurley out of the backfield. We have been struggling with that. That’s all the Cardinals did!
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Yeah, he's likely going to rack up yardage there.
Might see a lot of 3 safety looks with Dan/Lucas spinning down against Gurley, similar to what Bob did against James White for a fair bit of the game.
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Chiefs are going to put up A LOT of points on Monday Night. If we keep rams under 35, we will have a good chance of winning the ball game.
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Worried about the O-line holding up against the Rams’ push up front and the Chiefs ability to constantly open up running lanes for Hunt and Ware.
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Fully agreed on the way to stop the Rams offense.
Dee, Houston, and Jones need to be beasts and make Goff uncomfortable. Gurley is going to get his regardless, so we have to get to Goff with four-man pressure.
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Thats easier said than done.
The times I have been watching the Rams this year, it looks a lot to me like the real star of that offense is the oline.
Goff seems pretty comfortable most of the time, and as good as Gurley is, he also seems to have pretty good running lanes open up for him quite a bit.
As a team, they just might have the best oline and dline in football.
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This analysis isn't giving me warm fuzzies on holding the Rams to 28 points.
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Why are most pundits automatically giving Sean Mcvay offensive genius staus?
He has not been in the league as a head coach but for 2 years? No playoff success. He hasn’t created a new offensive system or anything either. He seems like josh McDaniels/todd haley 2.0 to me.
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Apparently, the media loves smart young coaches with terrible facial hair
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He took the #32 offense in the league to #1 in an offseason
That’s amazing. He’s amazing. The fact that he’s young and is 0-1 in the playoffs doesn’t diminish his genius in the slightest.
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They were #32 because the team quit
They had talent they just gave up on the coach. It’s not like Sean Mcvay brought that immediately.
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McVay has been phenomenal so far. He lost his first playoff game, big deal.
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I have a feeling that the experience of sutton will come out in this game.
A good portion of the rams offense has been stolen from the chiefs. He said it himself. Bob has seen and prepared for it for 5 plus years
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Seems to my untrained eye (and about a hundred fifty other APers this week) that the best way of trying to slow the Rams down is to sell out trying to stop Gurley and to try, whenever possible, to get Goff off his spot.
I guess this means a lot of heavy metal up near the line of scrimmage, including the occasional Safety (loved Parker’s sack against the Cardinals last week) and the DBs will just have to hang on as best they can. If Gurley escapes, or Goff does manage to beat up on our undermanned secondary then that’s just too bad.
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If the Chiefs hold the Rams to 28, i will be ecstatic
Even though it takes 41 points in the NFL to defeat Patrick Mahomes.
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I just hope they dont score 40. Bob will not adjust and the rams will put up some serious numbers. We will see if our offense can out score them or will it be a replay for the Colts/Chiefs playoff game years ago. I just dont have much faith in Bob, I hope him and his defense proves me and must others wrong.
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Goff is not mobile and can’t throw on the run like Patty
We will get after him Monday. Book it. Chris Jones has another big game and dee ford continues his insane run. Kupp being out also takes away a familiar option and they don’t have a tight end that can take over.
Bend don’t break will work excellent against this team. All we have to do is stop Gurley in the red zone.
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Parker is going to get eaten alive
This game is why I’ve been so afraid of him being back there.
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I think were going to get 3 or 4 offside penalties.
David Johnson had a good game last week because we extended drives with penalities. I can see it happening again this week. I believe the Rams are going to have over 150 yards rushing. I guess the question is, can we get pressure on Goff?
If Sammy Watkins can play and be productive, we can keep up with the Rams even if we have to match scores.
Great post ! But it didn’t make feel confident that we will win the game.