https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/11/12/kansas-city-chiefs-improving-defense-question/
Are the Kansas City Chiefs really improving on defense?
by Lyle Graversen
The Kansas City Chiefs had one of their best defensive performances on Sunday against the Cardinals, but is the unit really improving?
The
Kansas City Chiefs moved to 9-1 on the season on Sunday as they
defeated the Arizona Cardinals 26-14 in Arrowhead Stadium. It was easily one of the best defensive performances the Chiefs have had this season as they held the Cardinals to just 14 points and 260 total yards of offense.
If you look at the defensive numbers from the past four games, the numbers certainly are much better than the first six games of the season. With the
record-setting Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and one of the most explosive offenses in all of the NFL, the Chiefs really just need an average defense. So the question that Chiefs fans now have to ponder is: has the defense really improved?
The last 4 weeks
First off, let’s look at just how much better the numbers have been over the past four weeks. Below is how many points per game, yards per game, and yards per play the defense allowed both over the first six games and the last four games and where those averages would currently rank in the NFL.
The first six games:
- 28.7 points/game (30th)
- 468.2 yards/game (32nd)
- 6.5 yards/play (tied for 30th)
The last four games:
- 17.0 points/game (2nd)
- 324.5 yards/game (7th)
- 5.0 yards/play (tied for 2nd)
So it is not hyperbole to say that the Chiefs defensive numbers the first six games were worthy of being called one of if not
the worst defense in the NFL and their numbers the past four games are worthy of being called one of the best in the NFL.
The quality of K.C.’s opponents
Now, I am certainly not sitting here and telling you that the Chiefs defense has transformed into one of the premiere defenses in all the league. I think the eye test tells us that much. Clearly the caliber of offenses that KC has faced over that stretch has played a key role in their defensive success. So I thought it would be interesting to see the season averages for their opponents in those same three areas.
Offensive season averages of K.C.’s first six opponents:
- 24.9 PPG
- 380.8 YPG
- 5.9 YPP
Offensive season averages of K.C.’s past four opponents:
- 21.1 PPG
- 327.4 YPG
- 5.3 YPP
Clearly, the offenses the Chiefs have faced the past four weeks are less prolific than those they faced to start the season. It backs up the assumption that at least part of the Chiefs’ recent defensive success is due to playing less talented offenses.
Still looks promising
However, if you look at how K.C.’s defense performed compared to the averages, you do see some promising trends. In their first six games, the Chiefs allowed significantly more points, yards, and yards per play than those teams are averaging on the season. The opposite is true over the past four games. Even though they were facing worse offensive teams, the Chiefs defense did at least hold them below their season averages.
The fact that K.C.’s defense has gone from allowing significantly more points and yards than teams have averaged over the course of the season to now allowing less is a sign that there is actual improvement as opposed to just inferior competition.
The real test will come next week when the Chiefs
go toe to toe with the Los Angeles Rams in Mexico L.A.. The Rams boast one of the best offenses in all of the NFL. Thus far, three of the worst defensive performances that K.C. has had have come against the three best quarterbacks that they have faced in
Philip Rivers,
Ben Roethlisberger, and
Tom Brady. Those three quarterbacks averaged 36 points per game against the Chiefs.
When you look at
Jared Goff‘s numbers this season they are right there with those of the three quarterbacks I just listed and
much better than the numbers of
Andy Dalton,
Case Keenum,
Baker Mayfield, and
Josh Rosen, against whom the Chiefs have had their recent defensive success.
So has the Chiefs defense really improved? Well, their numbers certainly have and some of those numbers point towards some of that improvement being legitimate and not just about the opponents. However, before we start talking about this defense really being dependable enough to help win playoff games, they need to get the job done against a high powered offense like that of the Rams.
If they do that, I think Chiefs fans can start to believe in this defense. If they allow 40 points and give up 500 yards next week, then it will certainly be reasonable for fans to ask if any of this recent defensive success was actually K.C.’s doing. So basically, this defense has a lot to prove next week.
If Chiefs fans want to hold out hope that the improvement is legit, it may be
the pass rush that could prove them right.
Dee Ford and
Chris Jones have combined for 10 sacks over the past four games after combining for 6 in their first six games. They are both amongst the league leaders at their positions in both sacks and total pressures.
You combine that with
Justin Houston‘s return this past week where he showed some signs of life both in pressuring the quarterback and coming up with a nice interception on a screen pass, and you could have the makings of a front seven that can get after the quarterback, regardless of who they are facing.
In fact, the Chiefs are now tied for first in the NFL in team sacks (although they have played one more game than the other teams they are tied with). That will come in very handy for the Chiefs since they typically put up a lot of points and force their opponent into having to pass to keep up.
So if the Chiefs can score on the Rams and then get pressure on Jared Goff next week the defense may just have a chance to prove themselves as clearly improved from the beginning of the season.
That is, if they don’t allow
Todd Gurley to run wild on them, but that’s a topic for another post.
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I think its two fold;
1. Az has arguably one of the most inept offenses in the game this season and one of the worst Olines to go with. KC did what any good team should do and took advantage of it.... defensively. The coaching staff knew this and Im sure Reid went into more conservative play-calling as a result. The score may not have reflected it but the game was over once JH intercepted Rosen. Az were mailing it in after that and KC put it in cruise control.
2. Its just over the half way point of the season and weather, injuries and coaching schemes now start to reflect that as this time of year till the end of season favors defenses and they can take over games.
The Chiefs & Rams have more in common than a lot of pundits give them credit for. Both offensive are explosive but much like NO did to the Rams last week, I think KC can trade punches with them. Yes player-wise defensively the Rams have more talent but the Rams D didnt fair so well again NO and I believe KC have just as good an offense. So long as the game doesnt get to big for PM(a la the 1st half of the NE game)l I think KC can win
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The offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals is made up of mostly rejects and walking wounded. Their two highest paid players are the two offensive guards. Iupati didn't suit up as he was injured. Pugh left the game with an injury. Andre Smith, the large ROT, who is better suited to play inside, has never been consistent in the NFL. He is very lazy and takes plays off. As a result, Ford made him look like a version of Sack-in-Tosh when he played for the Chiefs.
Their youngest lineman is their center and this is his rookie year. The GM of the Cardinals has tried to sign any large type just walking past the practice field to take any spot of the O-line. He has missed badly with rejects such as Daniel Munyer, who was cut by the Chiefs a few years back. Yet, I have read threads at other sites, where they believe a roadmap to the Lombardi by the Chiefs went on display yesterday. The Chiefs overwhelmed a very mediocre offensive line and that proves exactly WHAT?
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To me it proves that the Chiefs can play down to their competition, which I definitely think they did yesterday, and still win handily. That game was closer than need be, and to me it all started on the Chief's 2nd series with that play where they had Hill out to the left and everyone was yelling at him that he was on the wrong side.
Come on Andy, lets cool the imagination a wee bit...that kind of stuff is just a little over the top. After that the offense looked like they were just a bit off, and never quite got into sync. Andy sometimes outsmarts himself!
And btw, w/ Kupp out that will make things pretty dicey for Goff. Goff has turned into a good QB, but w/o a lot of targets to throw to, he may be susceptible to a heavy rush.
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I think the Chiefs D has looked slightly better over the last 4 weeks but still garbage. They get a big break with Cupp out but wouldn’t be surprised if Gurley etc still have huge games. Good news is the Chiefs O should give them a shot
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While it's encouraging to see our defense play better against these lesser quality teams, we can't let it go to our heads. The way the defense played to start the season, ANY QB looked like a future HOF candidate. Our run defense is still a major concern though. Thus far our main run defense has just been getting far enough ahead where teams have to abandon it(though I have seen us make some nice short yardage stops on run D... it just usually gets ruined by penalties).
The ILB/safety positions are still pretty troubling. I was hoping Ragland/Hitchens would be thinking less and playing the ball more than they still are. It's the hesitation at those 2 spots that's really killing the run defense.
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The biggest problem is still the ILB's. The Chiefs have a 'front 5' not a 'front 7', and yesterday those 5 did a pretty good job of pressuring Rosen. Houston made a big difference. Scandrick, Fuller, and Nelson seem to be getting better. The Rams have 2 good receivers in Kupp and Cooks, Cooks being their version of Tyreek Hill...but not quite, and Gurley is one more RB to show up the Chiefs run D.
Yesterday, especially Fisher, was being beaten like a drum. Next Week it's going to be the g-c-g that will be getting tested w/ Suh, and Donald working them over, but Fisher won't be off the hook as Fowler will be keeping him busy. Mahomes had better keep his head on a swivel next week.
And lets not forget that Peters is going to want to make a point next week, so If Mahomes and Hill can get a couple of completions against him, they may be able to get under his skin, and then watch him melt down. He's always right on the edge. Since Peters almost always plays off about 10 yards, maybe a couple of quick hitters in front of Peters, then a juke and jive by Hill may do the trick.
One thing I think Reid needs to do is get on these guys and the stupid penalties they're getting. Hill especially needs to get under control w/ his celebrating. The Chiefs are getting way too many penalties, and most are just silly because of not concentrating. Nelson getting an offsides for lining up offside...good grief.
But I'm sick and tired of all the calls by the officials of stuff that has no bearing on the play. The block in the back by Harris on the return for TD that Hill had, is one that I mean. First of all it looked pretty marginal that he was hit in the back, but also the block was behind Hill and was not going to affect the play as Hill was gone. Those are the kind of calls that need to just be picked up, and no penalty. The officials are taking over the game
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Our 2 guys we got rotating at NT are doing a pretty good job from what I've noticed(even the rookie). What I really see lacking in our ILB play is they're waiting and reacting instead of recognizing the play early and moving in to blow it up. By the time they make their move on a play it's already gained 3-5 yards and if they wiff on shedding their blocks/tackles it turns into 8-10.