The Goff Thread

[MachS]

Why is our offense playing worse than last year? Honest answer? They're not. Last year we averaged 22.9 offensive PPG. This year we're averaging 24.0. How is that NOT improvement? If you're talking about the "eyeball test" then you aren't remembering the Browns game, the Steelers game, the Bears game or the Ravens game. The last 5 games of the year, the O line got better (than they were when they were in flux). We averaged 27.6 offensive PPG over those last 5 games. We had 4 turnovers and 10 takeaways. That "plus 6" helped the offense. I think that may be the offense you're comparing the 2020 offense to, not the entire 2019 offense. Right now, we're EVEN on +/-. So why is the offense only playing a little better than last year? Too many turnovers and not efficient enough in the Red Zone.

I'm talking about points scored, using the eye test our running game is light years better than last year but passing game seems similar. Last year we averaged 24.6ppg for the entire season, this year we are averaging 24.0. So yea we're underperforming compared to last year. Not sure where you're getting 22.9ppg from. But scoring is up across the entire NFL this year, but not for us. 24.6ppg last season ranked #11, whereas 24ppg this year ranks #18 in the NFL. And to your point if you look at the last 5 games of 2019 when we averaged 27.6, then we are significantly down this year compared to that figure. I agree we need to be better in the red zone and protect the ball more, but I disagree that the OL isnt playing that much better.

I already provided the advanced stats regrading the OL this year, they are playing very well:

Goff has the 4th best OL protection in pressures allowed, all while getting blitzed 7th HIGHEST in the NFL. So they're blitzing the shit out of him but our OL is still not giving up pressures. And he has the 9th best time in the pocket. Plus we have the #8 rushing attack in the NFL. All indications the OL is playing much better compared to 2019.

-Pressure % ( Times QB is pressured by dropback)
In 2020 - #4th best pressure % in the NFL, pressured on only 15.7% of dropbacks
-Blitzes (Times QB has been blitzed)
In 2020 - #7th highest in the NFL at 113 times
-Pocket Time (Avg time QB has in pocket between snap and throwing the ball or pressure collapses)
In 2020 - #9 rated pocket time in the NFL at 2.5seconds per snap

 

[PARAM]

Where I'm getting the PPG for 2019 is Pro Football Reference. Offensive points are passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns, field goals, PATs and 2-pt conversions.

The 2019 Rams had 22 TD passes (132 pts), 20 rushing TDs (120 pts), 24 FGs (72 pts) and 42 PAT's (42 pts). That's 366 points divided by 16 games and that comes out to 22.9 PPG.

So will you agree that 24.0 PPG is better production than 22.9 PPG? And hell man if we had a guy who can kick field goals and PATs, we have even more points. So far we've got 13 TD passes (78 pts), 14 rushing TDs (84 pts), 10 FG (30 pts), 22 PAT (22 pts) and a 2-pt conversion (Higbee) for a total of 216 points divided by 9 games equals 24.0 PPG.

And btw, I was incorrect on 2019. Gurley had a 2-pt conversion so that makes it 368 pts or 23.0 PPG. Still not as good as 24.0 PPG.

 

[dieterbrock]

Last year we averaged 24.6ppg for the entire season, this year we are averaging 24.0. So yea we're underperforming compared to last year. Not sure where you're getting 22.9ppg from

2019 defense scored 4 TD and a safety. Points scored, 394 - 29= 365 /16 22.81 ppg vs 2020 24.0 ppg

 

[PARAM]

I already provided the advanced stats regrading the OL this year, they are playing very well

To me "advanced stats" are a lot like "advanced scouting". Sometimes it tells the story and sometimes it don't.

2019 defense scored 4 TD and a safety. Points scored, 394 - 29= 365 /16 22.81 ppg vs 2020 24.0 ppg

Yeah, I rechecked (see my edited post above). They averaged 23.0 PPG in 2019 and have 24.0 PPG this year. And if MachS thought a dropoff of 0.6 PPG was enough to be concerned with, then an improvement of 1.0 PPG should be reason to celebrate. And if we're going to dot the i's and cross the t's, his perception was actually 1.6 PPG off.

 

[So Ram]

To me "advanced stats" are a lot like "advanced scouting". Sometimes it tells the story and sometimes it don't.



Yeah, I rechecked (see my edited post above). They averaged 23.0 PPG in 2019 and have 24.0 PPG this year. And if MachS thought a dropoff of 0.6 PPG was enough to be concerned with, then an improvement of 1.0 PPG should be reason to celebrate. And if we're going to dot the i's and cross the t's, his perception was actually 1.6 PPG off.

Good math . Nice

The bottom line to me is win vs loss.
I think The Rams have been lucky,but do an excellent job of finishing games.

The 2 minute offense that Goff runs helps his stats,so having the lead cuts into his stats.

 

[nighttrain]

Good math . Nice

The bottom line to me is win vs loss.
I think The Rams have been lucky,but do an excellent job of finishing games.

The 2 minute offense that Goff runs helps his stats,so having the lead cuts into his stats.

kinda evens out then, aye?
train

 

[So Ram]

kinda evens out then, aye?
train

Yeah - last season The Rams just about made the playoffs. There were a couple plays that could have changed
those games.

Copper Kupp’s numbers seems to be way down. I don’t even know his numbers,but I notice that he doesn’t stick out all that much on key downs.

 

[RamDino]

Sure the O-line is better than last year... but let's not forget the Joe Noteboom experience at guard THIS YEAR. And I also think the guys are still getting used to each other, and their new positions. Still, hard to compare last year to this year. We had a speedster in Cooks until he got hurt. You could also make an argument that the wide receivers are not getting a lot of separation since Cooks left. We also had Gurley who ran the ball ok at times and scored a lot of touchdowns. And how many times did Goff have to throw 60 times a game last year because they were getting blown out?

The point I am making is that it's too easy to pin everything on Goff. I just don't think you can make a broad generalization like "Goff is not playing well because our points per game is down". Outside of Mahomes, I would not trade Goff straight up for anyone else. Just my two cents.

 

[Mojo Ram]

I think his windup and release are something that needs looking at.... And that is not an easy thing to alter at this stage. I swear those have both gotten slower though,

Dude, yep. Go look at his release from Cal thru the 2018 season. It's quicker and more compact. Using some major hyperbole here but, his release now more resembles tossing to your 8 year old kid in the backyard. Looping like you mentioned, eazy peazy.

 

[nighttrain]

Yeah - last season The Rams just about made the playoffs. There were a couple plays that could have changed
those games.

Copper Kupp’s numbers seems to be way down. I don’t even know his numbers,but I notice that he doesn’t stick out all that much on key downs.

catches 53
YDS 577
AVG 10.9
TDS 2
not down by much
train

 

[So Ram]

catches 53
YDS 577
AVG 10.9
TDS 2
not down by much
train

That’s good to know. He always seems to put up silent numbers.To think he had the most catches as a Ram Rookie.

 

[PARAM]

Yeah - last season The Rams just about made the playoffs. There were a couple plays that could have changed
those games.

There was 1 play that could have changed the whole season and that was Z's miss (for the win) against Seattle. When I think of multiple plays that could have changed the season or at least that game was two 3rd and 16 conversions by SF on the same drive....the drive where they kicked the GWFG. Win one of those games and we're in the postseason at 10-6 winning the tie breaker over Minnesota. Win both and we're in 2nd in the West.

But that was last year. We have a new opportunity in front of us.

 

[So Ram]

There was 1 play that could have changed the whole season and that was Z's miss (for the win) against Seattle. When I think of multiple plays that could have changed the season or at least that game was two 3rd and 16 conversions by SF on the same drive....the drive where they kicked the GWFG. Win one of those games and we're in the postseason at 10-6 winning the tie breaker over Minnesota. Win both and we're in 2nd in the West.

But that was last year. We have a new opportunity in front of us.

Agree - I’m enjoying the ride. Let’s see what happens. I believe the team will get more momentum .TBay will be a Big Game.

 

[PARAM]

That old Vermeil mantra is pretty interesting. Take the season and divide it into 4 quarters.

Goff's first two quarters and a game.....

1st quarter: 88 of 122 (72.1%) for 1063 yds (8.71 yds/att) 6 TD (4.9) 2 Int (1.6) 108.1 rating (3-1)
2nd quarter: 98 of 162 (60.5%) for 1082 yds (6.68 yds/att) 7 TD (4.3) 4 Int (2.5) 84.4 rating (2-2)
Start of 3Q: 27 of 37 (73.0%) for 302 yds (8.16 yds/att) 0 TD (0.0) 0 Int (0.0) 96.9 rating (1-0)

lets have some more good 3rd quarter stuff!!!! with more TDs!!!

 

[BriansRams]

Say what you want, but 58 f’ing touchdowns in 5 seasons have NOT been improved upon.

Yeah but how did Gurley contribute during the 2019 season? Superstar player?

 

[Merlin]

Then had no preseason with a new OC.

This is a fair point and something that might be more important to him than some other vet QBs. The offense didn't change, but Goff is also far more involved (with more expectation from McVay) than he was last year in decision making at the line, both play selection as well as protections. So more is on him in combination. Could be that is all part of the same equation, in fact I think it contributes just a question of how much.

 

[Merlin]

I am confused.... The TV talking heads today are mentioning how good Russell Wilson is when he has a run game.

Cowherd commenting that Wilson's 200 yds passing with a big running attack is the perfect game for him... And he means it as a compliment.

Yet, when people say Goff needs a running attack and play action, it's meant as a criticism?

Now not saying Goff is in Russ' league, but I don't get those two views with one being a positive and the other as a negative when it comes to those two guys.

I'm with you. And for the record I don't mind seeing Rams fans talking about where Goff needs to improve because most here are rooting for him. But the fucking talking heads the way they spin shit pisses me off.

 

[Merlin]

I've considered those factors and it is my opinion you are overstating the improvement of the O line. Are they better this year? Yes. Are they playing "great"? Great is an overstatement. They're playing pretty good.

I agree this OL is not playing great. But to my eye they're definitely a top third unit. Not elite but had they not lost Whit I'd say 10th range overall. Now with Boom maybe they'll be more of a middle of the pack or perhaps lower but we'll see.

Goff has a better than average line though, not to mention a coach who can scheme pressure out very well. The issue to my eye is the dropoff after the WR2 (Goff too btw he does need to improve) and not being able to replace an elite weapon in Gurley so it's weapon related. And McVay knows he's got RBs not maximizing what is there in the run game, not to mention has to have Brown in there for comfort level on knowing the play calls (as alluded to by Goff in that vid above).

That much argued over turnover in the redzone vs the Dolphins Goff had tell Hendy what side to line up on. I've seen him doing it with others too like Everett. I think it's a problem, the mental side, and it's affected the flow and potency of the offense just like the weapon dropoff.

 

[dieterbrock]

This is a fair point and something that might be more important to him than some other vet QBs. The offense didn't change, but Goff is also far more involved (with more expectation from McVay) than he was last year in decision making at the line, both play selection as well as protections. So more is on him in combination. Could be that is all part of the same equation, in fact I think it contributes just a question of how much.

I think it means a lot from the pass protections standpoint. Gurley was terrific at pass pro, and had a great feel for where to be for dump offs. I think this years offense is very different from years past and at its best, still isnt going to be the explosive unit of 2017-2018
No doubt we've seen some 2016 Goff at times this season, which is not good. But he is still a kid, and the offense now rests in his hands which I dont believe was the case before.

 

[SeminoleRam]

Definitely looked like GOFF TIME last night with a little over two minutes left in the game! He may not have had a great game for 60 minutes but he was playing against a pretty good Defense and he played pretty well when it counted!