https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/01/16/r...-game-michael-thomas-aqib-talib-marcus-peters
Michael Thomas Is the Key to Saints-Rams
By ANDY BENOIT
Yes, the Saints last week rushed for 137 yards, while their No. 2-ranked run defense held Philly’s ground game to just 49 yards. And the Rams amassed an unfathomable 273 yards rushing against Dallas, surrendering only an almost equally unfathomable 50 to league rushing champ Ezekiel Elliott.
But let’s be honest: Even with outstanding ground games, the Saints and Rams are playing for the NFC championship because of their aerial assaults. Both are afforded unique dimension from running backs—backfield screen master Todd Gurley for L.A. and super flex piece Alvin Kamara for New Orleans—but the backbone of these passing attacks is formed by stud wide receivers.
The Rams have maybe the league’s best all-around duo in the highly refined Robert Woods and turbo-driven Brandin Cooks, though L.A.’s aerial success derives predominantly from its detailed, deceptive play-action, which makes this passing game about the scheme as much as the personnel. New Orleans’s aerial scheme is also great, though it would look a lot less “great” without Michael Thomas. Which is why the third-year wideout is the key difference-maker entering Sunday’s contest.
Recall that when the Rams and Saints met back in Week 9, Thomas had 12 catches for 211 yards, including a 72-yard touchdown that, like many of his other catches, came after burning Marcus Peters. The Rams cornerback was only traveling with Thomas because Aqib Talib was out with his 10-week ankle injury.
It’s been a different Rams pass D since Talib’s return in Week 13, and on Sunday Thomas can expect to see a lot of the well-traveled 12th-year star corner. The Rams don’t typically travel their corners with specific receivers when Peters and Talib are both in, but Talib’s lanky frame is too nice a fit against Thomas’s physicality.
Still, the Saints will not have to tweak their approach if Talib follows Thomas. Talib is an off-coverage corner who has a keen sense for simultaneously reading the QB and multiple routes. Thomas is a borderline genius route runner, deft at disguising his patterns and setting up breaks.
And Drew Brees, who is better with deceptive body language and eye manipulation than any other passer of this era, is a difficult QB to read. Putting Talib on Thomas would be more of a survival tactic for the Rams. Thomas, when you factor in his ability on contested catches, is a player who—to dig up the old cliché than Dan Patrick buried with sarcasm years ago on
SportsCenter—you cannot stop, you can only hope to contain.
This is especially true when you consider how the Saints use Thomas. At times he’ll align in the slot (where Talib is less comfortable—as is Peters, for that matter). Often, Thomas is one of just two wideouts on the field, as the Saints are more base personnel-driven (two tight ends or two backs) than people realize.
Some offensive coaches over the years have privately said that Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips becomes predictable when you play base personnel (though you don’t hear this as much now as you did before to Phillips won a Super Bowl with the 2015 Broncos). Predictability against Brees is poisonous, and it would surely mean single zone coverage against Thomas, which the Saints feast on.
Part of New Orleans’s success against zone, particularly in obvious passing situations, comes from shrewdly leveraging Kamara and Thomas together. In empty formations, they often align together on the weak side, where it’s all but impossible to double both. In traditional formations, Kamara’s route will often work near or underneath Thomas’s route, attacking the same group of zone defenders. If it’s man-to-man, those routes will intersect, creating natural rubs on defenders. (The Rams were bested here a few times in that Week 9 meeting.)
L.A.’s saving grace is that Brees no longer has the arm strength to push the ball vertically unless his pocket is clean. New Orleans’s stalwart O-line matches up well to L.A.’s pass rush, except inside, where no one matches up well to Aaron Donald. Compromise the 6-foot Brees’s interior pocket and you condense New Orleans’s passing game to throws of 20 yards and shorter.
That’s what happened during the stretch in December in which the Saints, in games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Bucs, uncharacteristically struggled to score. Thomas, one of the NFL’s best intermediate receivers, can still hurt a defense in a constricted passing game, but not having to defend over the top, a defense has a much better chance at competing. That’s what this game comes down to. If the Rams keep Thomas in check, they’ll win. If they don’t, they’ll lose.