https://www.patsfans.com/new-englan...w-good-is-the-rams-offense-right-now.1147192/
How good is the Rams offense right now?
We all know that since Kupp has left the Rams offense has struggled somewhat. But how much has the offense struggled? Looking at the overall PPG numbers not much, though it has been inconsistent. So I decided to look a bit deeper.
The Rams since Kupp went to IR have scored 54 vs KC, 30 @ Det, 6 @ Chi, 23 vs Phil, 31 @ AZ, 48 vs SF, 30 vs Dal and 23 @ NO. This all works out to about 30.6PPG. Not much lower than their season average. My question is why does it look so much worse and drop so little? The answer is simple. These numbers are massively inflated for a number of reasons.
KC 54 points? Not exactly. They had 2 defensive TDs and 1 ball at the 50 yard line. The real offensive production was anywhere between
40-37 points.
@Det 30 points? Not exactly. They had 3 recovery's at the 45, 40 and 24 respectively. The real offensive production could be argued between
27-21 points.
@Chi 6 points? Not exactly. They recovered a ball at the 15. The real offensive production could be argued to be
3 points.
Phil 23 points? Probably. They recovered a ball 51 yards from the goal. I don't like to assume anything about balls recovered on your side of the field.
23 points but maybe 20.
@AZ 31 points? You bet. They caught no breaks in this game. It was all earned without any particularly short fields or defensive scores.
31 points
SF 48 points? Nope. They had 1 defensive TD. They also had balls recovered at the 7 and 9 yard lines as well as one ball 52 yards from the goal. It's my opinion if you get 2 balls inside the 10 that should be counted for AT LEAST 10 points but 2 TDs shouldn't be a forgone conclusion. The ball 52 yards from the goal line is a nice side not but I won't count it. The real offensive production could be argued to be
41-27 points
I will sum up to say
Dallas and NO were all earned points at 30 and 23 respectively in regulation. I don't think it's fair to count over time points for the Rams as I didn't count them for the Pats when doing a similar break down.
Of the 245 points scored in these 8 games, how many were caused by good offense and how many by the Defense or breaks? At the least you can take 21 points off and knock it down to 224 points (28 PPG) but that would be a bit dishonest to represent what happened here. I would argue the offense of the Rams since losing Kupp should be credited with these amounts.
40 KC, 21 Det, 3 Chi, 23 Phil, 31 AZ, 31 SF, 30 Dal, 23 NO to get an estimate of what their typical offensive production will be in regulation.
That totals out to 202 total points or about 25PPG.
Again this is an opinion based amount trying to figure out what a number of offensive possessions on short fields should be worth. Simply put, it is highly likely that if we play a clean game we can keep them somewhere around 21-28 points. This offense is good but not explosive. I think the numbers speak for themselves on that matter.
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Seriously, this is great analysis but what you're telling us is the Rams Defense is really good. Good enough to help their offense score points on a short field or through turnovers. They're points none the less and the Pats will have to score more in two Sundays if they want to win.
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I did a quick look and found these kind of situations were outside the norm for the Rams.
During the other 10 games they scored 1 defensive TD. During these 8 they scored 3. Also the amount and location of turnovers or short fields was highly elevated during this streak compared to the other 10 games.
It wasn't their MO all season like Jax last year. It was more of a statistical aberration. Admittedly the Rams first 3 games looked a bit like this but a lot of that can be called sloppy early season football.
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Why do you feel its a streak and a statistical aberation and not simply a team playing really good defense right now? To me the game comes down to whether the Pats can stop the Rams zone blocking run scheme, something they've had trouble with in the past especially when Denver ran it. And whether the Rams stop the Pats play action cat and mouse game that's been absolutely lethal lately.
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Because when the Rams played good teams recently in the playoffs they weren't given any easy points or spots with the ball. Dallas and NO both were able to play clean games and make them drive most of the length of the field. That's what you would expect from a playoff team.
To not make the key mistake to give you opponent easy points. Those kind of things have more do to with the other team than your team in a lot of situations. Also, this isn't saying the Rams aren't playing good D or that forcing turnovers has nothing to do with your defense. But to say it is something they can depend on regardless of how the other offense plays isn't true either.
I think we saw those kind of plays dry up for LA in the playoffs because of the caliber and style of offenses other teams played against them. The Patriots clearly have the ability to do the same thing. They have been one of the safer teams with the ball all year.
We had 18 give aways in the regular season; Dallas had 17 and NO had 16. We are one of the safer teams with the ball. The fact that similarly safe teams like Dallas and NO could avoid costly mistakes against them bodes well for our chances.
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The Patriots need to copy the
Packers Defensive Game plan against the Rams. The Pack lost because of some dumb penalties by their players. But they had Goff and that Offense off balance all game. Packer CB's really played their WR's tight and the Rams were uncomfortable for most of the game. IF Gilmore takes away Cooks the rest of our
D can deal with the rest.
Their Offense is not as Potent as KC's probably a notch or Two below but Mahomes is better than Goff and Watkins/Hill is better than Cooks/Woods.
We Stopped the #1 Offense for a Half and if we play a similar Half against the Rams minus our mistakes in the SB the game could be over by Half Time.
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Not a big fan of these sites but football outsiders seems to think the Pats D is ideally suited to stop this Rams O:
Film Room: Goff vs. Patriots | Football Outsiders
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Gilmore on Cooks, in man, would not be not my first choice. When you match a tall CB with a short WR the receiver has an advantage getting in and out of cuts. Just my opinion.
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I don't think Gilmore will on Cooks for the majority of the time. I think Gilmore will spend more time on woods and we will double Cooks with a CB and Safety like how we defended Hill. BB will not let Cooks beat us one on one.
I think BB will want to try to move Goff off his spot so I think we will see more overload blitz from either side, pushing him to the left side more.
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Cooks is not the Wiggle type like Edelman he's still kinda Straight line-ish. But I get it we can play Two deep and Double Cooks with Jackson and a Safety and keep Gilmore on Woods. That's taking away two options right there.
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The thing that scares me the most about this Rams offense is not any individual player. It's the heavy usage of play action pass.
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This looks like the kind of game where the no name TE can hurt the Pats on third downs i.e. guys like Dennis Pitta, Dustin Keller and Owen Daniels come to mind...for the simple reason that the Pats will do a good job on Cooks and Woods so it'll be the TE and Reynolds who get less attention.
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The Patriots
constantly seemed to bite super hard on play fakes like a bunch of dopes earlier in the season, but really cleaned it up down the stretch. So I'm cautiously optimistic there.
And the Rams look nowhere near as able to make a big play out of nothing as the Chiefs were.
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