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https://www.patspulpit.com/2019/1/2...ntage-of-los-angeles-rams-coverage-tendencies
Patriots can take advantage of the Rams coverage tendencies
The Patriots can force winnable match-ups in the Super Bowl.
By Rich Hill
The New England Patriots will have their hands full next week when they face the star-powered Los Angeles Rams defense. Los Angeles boasts a ferocious front line with All Pros in Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, and they also have both 2016 First Team All Pro cornerbacks in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib.
It’s not going to be easy for Tom Brady and company.
If New England is going to be able to pass the ball against the Rams, they’ll have to force the best match-ups for Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and Phillip Dorsett- and the Rams have some defensive tendencies that Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is sure to capitalize on.
View: https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/1088825666857041925?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1088825666857041925&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.patspulpit.com%2F2019%2F1%2F25%2F18197375%2Fsuper-bowl-53-new-england-patriots-can-take-advantage-of-los-angeles-rams-coverage-tendencies
There’s a lot to digest here, so let’s try to break it down.
The snap counts reveal that Rams cornerback Aqib Talib spends 93% of his snaps as left cornerback, covering the receiver that lines up on the right side of the offensive formation. Fellow Rams cornerback Marcus Peters spends 62% of his snaps on the left side and 28% of the right side, with the rest of the snaps in the slot. Nickell Robey-Coleman is the Rams’ slot cornerback and will always align in the slot when on the field.
The Rams have increased their usage of zone defense over the second half of the season, so that’s worth noting, too.
Based on this information, we can determine that the Rams are likely to keep Talib in the same position all game, which allows the Patriots to line up players for the sake of match-ups.
For example, the Patriots could use Chris Hogan in the same way they’ve used him all season- to clear space underneath for Edelman and James White- and just have Hogan run down the field against Talib on every snap. Hogan’s been targeted on a mere 12% of his routes, the lowest of the starting receivers on either team, and he’s used to this role.
Alternatively, the Patriots could try to flood the left side of the field with their star players and have James Develin trot out against Talib. That’d be a good use of resources.
The Patriots have a lot of options because their receivers are not pigeon-holed into a specific role. Julian Edelman spends 65% of his time in the slot and 35% of his time outside. Hogan has a relatively even split with 46% of snaps in the slot and 54% outside. Phillip Dorsett is actually most heavily used on the outside, where he spends 79% of his snaps, compared to 21% in the slot.
This means that the Patriots can motion their receivers all over the offensive formation until they get the favorable match-up they want. Any of those three can line up at any of the positions on offense, which is a distinct advantage to have over a zone defense in order to flood certain zones with too many receivers (ex. have multiple players in the slot) for the defenders to cover.
And if the Rams decide to revert back to man coverage, well, Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel can take advantage of their favorable match-ups. The Rams allowed the second-most yards to tight ends in 2019 and ranked last in the league in yards allowed per rush.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots should be able to continue with their man coverage that’s been so successful.
Rams receivers Brandin Cooks , Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds are versatile and all have spent between 27%-53% of their time in the slot. Cooks spends 56% of his time on the left side and Reynolds spends 54% of his time on the right; Woods is the primary slot receiver at 53%.
Los Angeles loves moving the receivers around the formation to get favorable match-ups. And the Patriots should be able to respond.
Patriots cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, and Jason McCourty have been fairly balanced as they follow their receivers around the field. Gilmore has played 44% of his time on the defensive right and 36% on the defensive left; Jackson’s also an even split at 37% and 41%; and McCourty isn’t too different at 27% and 34%.
Now McCourty spends more time in the slot than the other cornerbacks, with 39% of his snaps versus 20% for Gilmore and 23% for Jackson. But the Patriots defensive backs are capable of covering players wherever they line up.
If I’m Brian Flores, I’d consider borrowing from last week’s play book against the Kansas City Chiefs and have Jonathan Jones (not included in this data) cover Brandin Cooks with Devin McCourty over the top. That would allow Gilmore to cover his former Bills teammate Woods all over the formation, while Jackson would defend Reynolds on the outside.
This excludes Jason McCourty from covering receivers, but the Patriots found a way to use McCourty as the sixth defensive back on the field instead of Duron Harmon. Jason McCourty still played 67% of the snaps against the Chiefs and could be used to cover the Rams’ tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. This would subsequently free up Patrick Chung to cover the Rams running backs out of the backfield.
Both the Rams and the Patriots are coached by some of the most innovative minds in football, so any game plan won’t be “simple.” But I’m sure Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are looking at the Rams’ defensive tendencies and formulating ways to take advantage of them.
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Surprised they don’t move Talib around a bit as the gap between he and Peters seems fairly huge. Prior to reading this I was almost hoping they’d burn Talib by locking him up on Gronk (as we did with him when he shut down Jimmy Graham…I always liked Talib), figured they could run at him and wear him out for later in the game.
I gotta think they’re going to have some wrinkle on defense, allowing us to dictate who he covers by just placing him in one spot seems like blood in the water to me….
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I'd bet
NE goes after Peters aggressively with the Edelman/Dorsett stack that has generated both of Dorsett’s touchdowns and Edelman’s wide open OT catch. It’s a nice wrinkle they’ve added since Gordon left. Brady just needs to protect the ball. The Rams’ secondary isn’t good enough to play man consistently, especially Peters, which is probably why they’ve played so much zone.
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Kinda similar to Sherman in the Seattle SB
Wherever Richard Sherman lined up was usually a pretty solid tipoff to whether they were in man or zone
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I don’t think the Pats go small and put a DB on those TEs
That’s asking to get dominated in the run game, especially against a top O-line. I don’t know how LA uses its TEs, but I think the step down from Kelce is so huge there’s no reason to depart from a more conventional coverage strategy.
That means focus on the WRs and stopping the run. I also don’t think they double Cooks like that. He’s dangerous, but he just isn’t that much more dangerous than the other options. If they do give help over the top, he’ll be getting shoved around at the line for sure tho. I suspect the Pats will try to bully him as much as possible.
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I think they should absolutely cover Cooks the same way they covered Hill.
They both are short, shifty, fast, and are at their most dangerous as a deep threat. I think it’s a good idea to keep Gilmore on Woods because Gilmore has a familiarity with him from their time with the Bills and while I think Cooks is a deep threat, I believe Woods is the more important receiver when it comes to moving the chains.
Putting Gilmore on Woods would make life more difficult for Goff, IMO. If they put Gilmore on Cooks with a safety then it’s too much resources dedicated to one player, but if they put Gilmore on Cooks 1-on-1 there is a greater risk of giving up a big play
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Nobody seems to be acknowledging that there is a cost to doubling a WR
And that cost is paid in the run game, in the ability to blitz, and in the risk of giving up huge gains on things like wheel routes. There’s a limited number of players on defense.
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You are right. They will go mostly man
with a stacked box, Talib either on Gronk or Jules, being physical with the later at the LOS. Then Wade has to pray that Peters can hang with whomever he’s on. He’s a gifted corner but an utter knucklehead as well. Talib is a total gamer, so don’t look for any stupid PF penalties by Talib in a game where the stakes are so high.
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you do not need to double Cooks
There should be basically no double teams at all this game. Certainly there will be coverages where you want a safety over the top so primary coverage can stop the deep curl. I want someone dropping into the deep middle a lot this game to rob the deep digs and crossers.
Woods is the best route runner, but not sure how fast he is. Probably want the best technician on Woods and the best speed with a height advantage on Cooks. No doubt with our experience with Cooks we’ll have a very clear plan how to defend him.
Priority #1 is stop the run. May actually see Devin in the box a lot to man up Gurley, unless we think Chung is fast enough. Either way, Gurley should never not be marked out of the backfield, and should be hit no later than when the ball arrives. He will get his touches even in limited snaps. Roberts on the field every time Anderson is.
I think this is going to be our first blowout SB win.
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How many of us thought this last year too?
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I wasn't one of them
I was actually concerned with Edelman not being available.
He was very important in the playoffs and helped Patriots win 2 Super Bowls.
Then after Cooks got himself knocked out, I was very worried.
He was a big part of the Patriots offense, and he was suddenly gone.
I was worried when Butler was benched and replaced with Eric Rowe after I read bad stuff about Rowe as a former Eagle that Eagles would take advantage of.
I was concerned that Nick Foles who was once a starting Eagles quarterback who threw 7 touchdown passes in a game would play great against the Patriots.
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Don’t underestimate Wade Phillips. His 2016 AFC Championship game plan stacked the middle of the field and dared Tom to throw the ball outside the numbers. Part of me expects a similar game plan. Or a borrowed one from either the Lions game or the Titans’ game from earlier in the season. I’m not fearful of us losing. Just saying that at this time of year, EVERYTHING is in play.
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I do think this Rams’ defense is suspect. But Wade is shrewd enough to come up with something.
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That's what MANY teams try to do to defend Brady
The reason why it worked for Phillips in the 2015-16 AFC title game (barely) is because:
1) The Patriots had a beat-up, patchwork and in some cases inexperienced offensive line, and the Pats overall were something like the #3 team in the NFL that year for most injuries
2) Pats had no run game (see point 1, plus lack of RBs)
3) Denver led the league in sacks that year (LA is like 15th this year)
4) Denver was playing at home in a very loud environment that affected Patriot communications (SB shaping up to be 60% Pats fans)
5) There are numerous reports that Denver (Miller) deciphered the NE snap count, which yes is going to be a huge problem no matter who you face when it happens.
Patriots are miraculously healthy right now, and the offensive line is playing about as well as I’ve ever seen it play. I get that people still have nightmares about that AFC title game in Denver, but the situation is completely different for this game for any number of reasons.
Beyond that as far as the Rams offense goes, yeah, they’ve got talent, but I don’t know why anyone would be even remotely scared of them after what the Patriots just faced and where they faced it. The only thing I would really suspect is that the Rams may try to be patient with their run game, in a way that neither the Chargers nor the Chiefs were/could be. Gurley is a beast and CJ Anderson has been playing well, too (although neither did much in New Orleans).
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You’d be a fool NOT to be "remotely scared" of what they can do on offense. I agree that our D is healthy and peeking at the right time however the Rams basically took Dallas’s D over their knee and made them look like a clown show. They are dangerous as hell if Goff is "on and CJ Anderson/Gurley are gashing the defense.
Patriots can take advantage of the Rams coverage tendencies
The Patriots can force winnable match-ups in the Super Bowl.
By Rich Hill
The New England Patriots will have their hands full next week when they face the star-powered Los Angeles Rams defense. Los Angeles boasts a ferocious front line with All Pros in Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, and they also have both 2016 First Team All Pro cornerbacks in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib.
It’s not going to be easy for Tom Brady and company.
If New England is going to be able to pass the ball against the Rams, they’ll have to force the best match-ups for Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and Phillip Dorsett- and the Rams have some defensive tendencies that Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is sure to capitalize on.
View: https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/1088825666857041925?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1088825666857041925&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.patspulpit.com%2F2019%2F1%2F25%2F18197375%2Fsuper-bowl-53-new-england-patriots-can-take-advantage-of-los-angeles-rams-coverage-tendencies
There’s a lot to digest here, so let’s try to break it down.
The snap counts reveal that Rams cornerback Aqib Talib spends 93% of his snaps as left cornerback, covering the receiver that lines up on the right side of the offensive formation. Fellow Rams cornerback Marcus Peters spends 62% of his snaps on the left side and 28% of the right side, with the rest of the snaps in the slot. Nickell Robey-Coleman is the Rams’ slot cornerback and will always align in the slot when on the field.
The Rams have increased their usage of zone defense over the second half of the season, so that’s worth noting, too.
Based on this information, we can determine that the Rams are likely to keep Talib in the same position all game, which allows the Patriots to line up players for the sake of match-ups.
For example, the Patriots could use Chris Hogan in the same way they’ve used him all season- to clear space underneath for Edelman and James White- and just have Hogan run down the field against Talib on every snap. Hogan’s been targeted on a mere 12% of his routes, the lowest of the starting receivers on either team, and he’s used to this role.
Alternatively, the Patriots could try to flood the left side of the field with their star players and have James Develin trot out against Talib. That’d be a good use of resources.
The Patriots have a lot of options because their receivers are not pigeon-holed into a specific role. Julian Edelman spends 65% of his time in the slot and 35% of his time outside. Hogan has a relatively even split with 46% of snaps in the slot and 54% outside. Phillip Dorsett is actually most heavily used on the outside, where he spends 79% of his snaps, compared to 21% in the slot.
This means that the Patriots can motion their receivers all over the offensive formation until they get the favorable match-up they want. Any of those three can line up at any of the positions on offense, which is a distinct advantage to have over a zone defense in order to flood certain zones with too many receivers (ex. have multiple players in the slot) for the defenders to cover.
And if the Rams decide to revert back to man coverage, well, Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel can take advantage of their favorable match-ups. The Rams allowed the second-most yards to tight ends in 2019 and ranked last in the league in yards allowed per rush.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots should be able to continue with their man coverage that’s been so successful.
Rams receivers Brandin Cooks , Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds are versatile and all have spent between 27%-53% of their time in the slot. Cooks spends 56% of his time on the left side and Reynolds spends 54% of his time on the right; Woods is the primary slot receiver at 53%.
Los Angeles loves moving the receivers around the formation to get favorable match-ups. And the Patriots should be able to respond.
Patriots cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, and Jason McCourty have been fairly balanced as they follow their receivers around the field. Gilmore has played 44% of his time on the defensive right and 36% on the defensive left; Jackson’s also an even split at 37% and 41%; and McCourty isn’t too different at 27% and 34%.
Now McCourty spends more time in the slot than the other cornerbacks, with 39% of his snaps versus 20% for Gilmore and 23% for Jackson. But the Patriots defensive backs are capable of covering players wherever they line up.
If I’m Brian Flores, I’d consider borrowing from last week’s play book against the Kansas City Chiefs and have Jonathan Jones (not included in this data) cover Brandin Cooks with Devin McCourty over the top. That would allow Gilmore to cover his former Bills teammate Woods all over the formation, while Jackson would defend Reynolds on the outside.
This excludes Jason McCourty from covering receivers, but the Patriots found a way to use McCourty as the sixth defensive back on the field instead of Duron Harmon. Jason McCourty still played 67% of the snaps against the Chiefs and could be used to cover the Rams’ tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. This would subsequently free up Patrick Chung to cover the Rams running backs out of the backfield.
Both the Rams and the Patriots are coached by some of the most innovative minds in football, so any game plan won’t be “simple.” But I’m sure Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are looking at the Rams’ defensive tendencies and formulating ways to take advantage of them.
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Surprised they don’t move Talib around a bit as the gap between he and Peters seems fairly huge. Prior to reading this I was almost hoping they’d burn Talib by locking him up on Gronk (as we did with him when he shut down Jimmy Graham…I always liked Talib), figured they could run at him and wear him out for later in the game.
I gotta think they’re going to have some wrinkle on defense, allowing us to dictate who he covers by just placing him in one spot seems like blood in the water to me….
-------------
I'd bet
NE goes after Peters aggressively with the Edelman/Dorsett stack that has generated both of Dorsett’s touchdowns and Edelman’s wide open OT catch. It’s a nice wrinkle they’ve added since Gordon left. Brady just needs to protect the ball. The Rams’ secondary isn’t good enough to play man consistently, especially Peters, which is probably why they’ve played so much zone.
------------
Kinda similar to Sherman in the Seattle SB
Wherever Richard Sherman lined up was usually a pretty solid tipoff to whether they were in man or zone
-------------
I don’t think the Pats go small and put a DB on those TEs
That’s asking to get dominated in the run game, especially against a top O-line. I don’t know how LA uses its TEs, but I think the step down from Kelce is so huge there’s no reason to depart from a more conventional coverage strategy.
That means focus on the WRs and stopping the run. I also don’t think they double Cooks like that. He’s dangerous, but he just isn’t that much more dangerous than the other options. If they do give help over the top, he’ll be getting shoved around at the line for sure tho. I suspect the Pats will try to bully him as much as possible.
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I think they should absolutely cover Cooks the same way they covered Hill.
They both are short, shifty, fast, and are at their most dangerous as a deep threat. I think it’s a good idea to keep Gilmore on Woods because Gilmore has a familiarity with him from their time with the Bills and while I think Cooks is a deep threat, I believe Woods is the more important receiver when it comes to moving the chains.
Putting Gilmore on Woods would make life more difficult for Goff, IMO. If they put Gilmore on Cooks with a safety then it’s too much resources dedicated to one player, but if they put Gilmore on Cooks 1-on-1 there is a greater risk of giving up a big play
-----------
Nobody seems to be acknowledging that there is a cost to doubling a WR
And that cost is paid in the run game, in the ability to blitz, and in the risk of giving up huge gains on things like wheel routes. There’s a limited number of players on defense.
----------
You are right. They will go mostly man
with a stacked box, Talib either on Gronk or Jules, being physical with the later at the LOS. Then Wade has to pray that Peters can hang with whomever he’s on. He’s a gifted corner but an utter knucklehead as well. Talib is a total gamer, so don’t look for any stupid PF penalties by Talib in a game where the stakes are so high.
-------------
you do not need to double Cooks
There should be basically no double teams at all this game. Certainly there will be coverages where you want a safety over the top so primary coverage can stop the deep curl. I want someone dropping into the deep middle a lot this game to rob the deep digs and crossers.
Woods is the best route runner, but not sure how fast he is. Probably want the best technician on Woods and the best speed with a height advantage on Cooks. No doubt with our experience with Cooks we’ll have a very clear plan how to defend him.
Priority #1 is stop the run. May actually see Devin in the box a lot to man up Gurley, unless we think Chung is fast enough. Either way, Gurley should never not be marked out of the backfield, and should be hit no later than when the ball arrives. He will get his touches even in limited snaps. Roberts on the field every time Anderson is.
I think this is going to be our first blowout SB win.
-------------
How many of us thought this last year too?
-------------
I wasn't one of them
I was actually concerned with Edelman not being available.
He was very important in the playoffs and helped Patriots win 2 Super Bowls.
Then after Cooks got himself knocked out, I was very worried.
He was a big part of the Patriots offense, and he was suddenly gone.
I was worried when Butler was benched and replaced with Eric Rowe after I read bad stuff about Rowe as a former Eagle that Eagles would take advantage of.
I was concerned that Nick Foles who was once a starting Eagles quarterback who threw 7 touchdown passes in a game would play great against the Patriots.
---------------
Don’t underestimate Wade Phillips. His 2016 AFC Championship game plan stacked the middle of the field and dared Tom to throw the ball outside the numbers. Part of me expects a similar game plan. Or a borrowed one from either the Lions game or the Titans’ game from earlier in the season. I’m not fearful of us losing. Just saying that at this time of year, EVERYTHING is in play.
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I do think this Rams’ defense is suspect. But Wade is shrewd enough to come up with something.
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That's what MANY teams try to do to defend Brady
The reason why it worked for Phillips in the 2015-16 AFC title game (barely) is because:
1) The Patriots had a beat-up, patchwork and in some cases inexperienced offensive line, and the Pats overall were something like the #3 team in the NFL that year for most injuries
2) Pats had no run game (see point 1, plus lack of RBs)
3) Denver led the league in sacks that year (LA is like 15th this year)
4) Denver was playing at home in a very loud environment that affected Patriot communications (SB shaping up to be 60% Pats fans)
5) There are numerous reports that Denver (Miller) deciphered the NE snap count, which yes is going to be a huge problem no matter who you face when it happens.
Patriots are miraculously healthy right now, and the offensive line is playing about as well as I’ve ever seen it play. I get that people still have nightmares about that AFC title game in Denver, but the situation is completely different for this game for any number of reasons.
Beyond that as far as the Rams offense goes, yeah, they’ve got talent, but I don’t know why anyone would be even remotely scared of them after what the Patriots just faced and where they faced it. The only thing I would really suspect is that the Rams may try to be patient with their run game, in a way that neither the Chargers nor the Chiefs were/could be. Gurley is a beast and CJ Anderson has been playing well, too (although neither did much in New Orleans).
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You’d be a fool NOT to be "remotely scared" of what they can do on offense. I agree that our D is healthy and peeking at the right time however the Rams basically took Dallas’s D over their knee and made them look like a clown show. They are dangerous as hell if Goff is "on and CJ Anderson/Gurley are gashing the defense.
