https://www.patspulpit.com/2019/1/3...ots-los-angeles-rams-tom-brady-rob-gronkowski
9 keys to Super Bowl 53 between the Patriots and Rams
Patriots v Rams 2.0
By PatrioticChief
Key Pivots
When I use the word “key pivot” I mean the performances I believe will have the greatest chance of having a major impact. The key here is the phrase “greatest chance”. For example, the
Rams have one of the best offensive lines in football. If they were bad across the board it would be devastating for the Rams but it is not very probable.
Patriots: Tom Brady
The GOAT may not be at the height of his powers but he certainly is at the height of his clutch. If this game becomes really close I think we all know who our money is on. The GOAT is and always will be a pivot for this team.
Rams: Offensive Line Domination
The Rams have the best offensive line in football. This presents a big problem for the
Patriots defensive line. New England beat the crap out of the
Chargers offensive line; I predicted that. The Chargers’ line was one of the worst in football and the Patriots showed earlier in the season they were capable of beating up on bad offensive lines. They also were surprisingly successful against the
Chiefs, particularly in regards to pressure up the middle. Now awaits a different kind of challenge, though.
Jared Goff is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks when given a clean pocket. If the Patriots are forced to rely solely on the occasional unexpected blitz they are going to be in for an extremely long night. But the danger doesn’t stop there. New England is not good against the run.
That has not been terribly relevant as they have mowed through two pass-happy offenses with significant early leads. But if the Rams are able to jump out to an early lead of their own or keep pace with the Patriots, the league’s best run blocking unit in the NFL could become a nightmare as L.A. turns the Patriots’ own strategy against them.
The biggest adjustment from Sean McVay throughout these playoffs has been the patience to rely on the running game to win games and it has gotten him and his team to a Super Bowl. I like this strategy to continue on Sunday. This is the most likely pivot for the Rams and why I have it listed first.
Patriots: Offensive Line Domination
Yep, the Patriots’ most likely pivot is the exact same as the Rams’. The Patriot offensive line has been dominant for four straight weeks on the ground and has played two of its best games in the playoffs against some of the stiffest competition. We will get to the Rams’ front seven in a moment but I see little evidence that the Patriots cannot continue to run rampant on the ground.
This is not the
Eagles’ defensive line from last year that was ranked number one against the run and top five against the pass. The Patriots should be able to run the ball outside — the Rams linebackers don’t inspire fear — and dominate on the ground.
The big question for me is how they limit interior pressure. If they manage to overcome that hurdle they will be in good shape. This is an area the Patriots can, have, and must dominate one more time to win the game.
Rams: Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh
Look, the Rams defense is definitely better than the Chiefs’. But it’s not dominant. It is certainly not better than the Chargers’. They have mediocre edge defenders, bad linebackers, solid corners, and average safeties. This defense would not be concerning on paper if it weren’t for two players: Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. Donald is the best defensive player in the NFL, Suh has played like one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL the last two games.
Tom Brady’s biggest weakness has always been interior pressure. Can Donald and Suh destroy his life the way the
Giants destroyed the ‘07 Patriots? It’s definitely possible. The good news is that Donald has been held without a sack through the postseason against two offensive lines worse than the Patriots’.
Teams are constantly doubling him but the bad news is that Suh has taken advantage of that extra attention. He’s been effective rushing the passer and maintained his dominance against the run. This postseason, New England’s offensive lines has performed as well as any Brady has ever had. It needs to stay that way for one more game.
Rams: Every secondary player not named Aqib Talib
The Rams secondary was actually an unsung disappointment this season.
Lamarcus Joyner went from one of the league’s best cornerbacks to being average.
Marcus Peters went from one of the league’s most promising corners to arguably his worst season.
Nickell Robey-Coleman probably would have lost his team a Super Bowl journey had fate, or a corrupt NFL, not sought otherwise. The Rams secondary has not been impressive most of the season.
However, the return of Aqib Talib has had a strong ripple effect on the defense. Talib has played well as a number one cornerback, Peters has played better as a number two. The Rams’ front seven has benefited from the superior coverage. I like Talib man-to-man against any one of New England’s receivers.
The Patriots will have to win where he is not most of the time, which means the performance of the rest of the Rams secondary will be key. Can guys like Peters and Joyner play to their talent or will the bright lights of the Super Bowl overwhelm them? That will be an important pivot in this game.
Patriots: Julian Edelman
Don’t get it confused. Do you remember that 32-year old seventh-round draft pick coming off an ACL tear who converted to wide receiver only after being drafted into the NFL? He’s been the best wide receiver in the NFL this postseason. He’s amassed 257 yards at well over ten yards per a catch.
Chris Hogan made an incredible play in the
AFC Championship Game and he deserves all the credit in the world for that.
Phillip Dorsett had a good touchdown. They were all critical. But the only consistent wide receiver on this roster is Edelman. And so far, that is all the Patriots have needed. If Edelman continues to play as well as he has they probably don’t need much more.
Rams: Sean McVay
The media orbits around Sean McVay. The youngest head coach ever. The man who single handedly turned around a moribund franchise. The photogenic good guy with a supermodel girlfriend who remembers every offensive play he’s ever seen. Bill Belichick is the GOAT, though, but let’s not deceive ourselves. We have seen this story before: the Patriots play good defense in the divisional and conference championship only to get blown up in the Super Bowl.
Last year, the Patriots let a historically great quarterback performance become wasted in the dustbin of history because Doug Pederson kicked the crap out of Bill Belichick before the game even started. That’s supposed to be the Patriots’ calling card and the Eagles turned the tables on them. Can Sean McVay do the same? We will find out.
Patriots: Bill, Brian and the Rushing Defense
Despite entering the season with a defensive roster riddled with question marks, the Patriots have rallied at the perfect moment. Their defense has been absolutely dominant during the first half of both playoff games, allowing their offense a chance to amass a lead the other team could not overcome. However, 31 points by the Chiefs in the second half show that this defense remains deeply vulnerable.
Playing from a lead has been critical for the Patriots the last two games and I’d argue that it would be even more devastating against the Rams than it was the Chiefs. If the Rams cannot run the ball because they fall behind I am confident they will lose this football game.
Jared Goff and company are a formidable foe but
Patrick Mahomes and his armory they are not. This Rams team wants to run the ball and needs to run the ball. Not that different from the Patriots. If the Patriots can scheme early defensive domination or play the run without completely selling out I think they might win this game comfortably.
Rams: Linebackers
This is a negative pivot for the Rams. I think
James White and
Rex Burkhead are a massive mismatch for these guys and can have a field day. I think the L.A. linebackers are going to struggle if the defensive line cannot clamp down on the run. I also think the Rams secondary has leveled out with Talib. The second-least important position in football might just do in the Rams.
Patriots: GROOOOOOOOOONKKK!
Screw it. He’s had two weeks to rest. It’s possibly the last game of his career.
Rob Gronkowski has been dominant in both of his previous Super Bowl appearances. I say third time’s the charm and he does it again. The lovable goofball goes out on top and caps his Hall of Fame résumé with a Super Bowl performance for the ages.
Final Prediction
I think both teams will enter the game with a similar strategy of running the ball early and dominating time of possession. Both teams are good at this and both teams have shown vulnerability defending it.
Todd Gurley shreds the Patriots as a receiver while Rex Burkhead and James White combine for the same effect against the Rams.
Both offenses benefit from a few play action deep balls but most of the game is short passes and running. Gronk steps up with a big game as Wade Phillip schemes Julian Edelman out of contention. A key blitz on second down and excellent secondary coverage on a third-and-long force the Rams to punt once more than they can afford. At the end of the game, the slightly wilier quarterback and coach defeat the more talented Rams with a game ending field goal.
I hope.
Patriots: 30
Rams: 27
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I think a huge onus is on Trey Flowers in this game
I don’t expect much of any pass rush from Goff’s weak side with how Whitworth is playing, meaning it’s up to Flowers to disrupt Goff from the strong side. He could stand to make a LOT of money off of his performance in this game if he delivers.
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I agree they can be had if we can jump on them early
Goff struggles when the playaction isn’t a viable option…also has anyone else seen the rumors that McVay is in his headset basically telling Goff what to do until it cuts out at the 15 second mark? I find that fascinating as an opposing fan and I would be terrified (if it’s true) were I a Ram fan, to me that doesn’t indicate a high level of trust by McVay or ability by Goff.
Also seems highly exploitable via the amoebic shifts and movements that have been brought back (much to my delight) by young Mr. Flores….
If this is it for Gronk I want the big fella to win the MVP; 100 yards and at least a TD or two with some dominant blocks. Do you think we have enough receiving juice in a 2 TE, 2 RB, 1 WR look to start the game with that? The blocking would be off the chain with Allen/Gronk and Dev all on the field, and I greedily want another initial drive like last game…
Pats 34, Rams 20.
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I hope we are able to confuse Goff just enough...
and our O-line stands strong for 1 last time this season
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The Pats will win on the field
They will lose on the non calls and reviews by the New York replay crew. Just like last year.
I don’t have my hopes up after rewatching both division championships. Rams should have had two DPIs called against time, not just one. Rams win on either call.
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This is why I hope this isn't a typical close game for the Pats.
Put it out of reach early, just in case you’re right!
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Pats 34-24
A couple of picks for defense
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Cordarrelle
4 carries for 75yds against that Rams run defense could be an X factor in this game
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The New England Patriots are the visiting team and will call the toss before Super Bowl LIII this Sunday in Atlanta against the Los Angeles Rams'
Let’s hope Slater has a few more coin tosses go his way, and we get the ball first!
March right down the field ala AFCCG and put them in a hole right out of the gate.
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Seems like outdated analysis by a naive, younger fan..
NE not "stopping the run" is so October. lol
The Rams Run D is worse, giving up an average of 5.1 YPC. WHen NE wants to execute something defensively, they do it. Load the box and stop the run.
NE’s O Line also may have something to say about the Rams supposed "best" OL in the league, too. If I remember correctly, Saffold was a bust early in his career and they moved him to Guard to hide his bust status.
A little tiring seeing all the accolades go to other teams all the time. Saffold is overrated, Whitworth and his time with Cincy never really impressed much, and with his age, I am not so sure he’s that good, other than it being Gurley who is that good.
A guy like Gurley would make the Jets OL look good.
Young kids shouldn’t be allowed to be so arrogant talking about these things in front of a computer.
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https://www.patspulpit.com/2019/1/3...les-rams-charting-favorite-offensive-packages
Dissecting Los Angeles’ favorite offensive packages
The Rams rely heavily on one formation.
By Bernd Buchmasse
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
The
Los Angeles Rams have one of the NFL’s premier offensive attacks — a group that ranked third in the NFL during the regular season with 30.5 points scored per game; one that also was in the top-5 in yards and yards per play, net yards per rushing and passing attempt, and points per drive. Needless to say, the
New England Patriots defense will have its hands full on
Super Bowl Sunday trying to stop this offense.
But how exactly will the Rams’ offensive attack look like? Let’s take a closer look at their favorite personnel packages to find out — and one thing we can see right off the bat is that the Patriots will be in a lot of nickel and dime packages on Sunday: Los Angeles runs its offense almost exclusively out of 11-personnel groups with three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back on the field.
The team’s most-used package with a total of 281 snaps featured
Cooper Kupp, now on injured reserve, as the team’s number three wide receiver. With him out of the picture, the top group Los Angeles uses now looks as follows:
QB Jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley, WR Robert Woods, WR Josh Reynolds, WR Brandin Cooks, TE Tyler Higbee, LT Andrew Whitworth, LG Rodger Saffold, C John Sullivan, RG Austin Blythe, RT Rob Havenstein
In total, the Rams used this personnel package on 264 of a possible 1,248 snaps this season (21.2%). A group that is used no matter the spot on the field or the situation, it is hard to draw any definitive conclusions from personnel alone about what kind of play is run out of it: L.A. attempted 134 passes out of this package compared to 130 runs.
The numbers were solid either way, as the Rams averaged 5.8 yards per play when using this group while also scoring 14 touchdowns and turning the football over just four times (1.5%). This variation of an 11-personnel package gained 4.5 yards per run on the ground, while also being able to gain 7.0 yards per attempt through the air. However, all three statistics rank below the Rams’ season-long averages.
On a per-pass basis, for example, the following package was more productive:
QB Jared Goff, WR Todd Gurley, WR Robert Woods, WR Josh Reynolds, WR KhaDarel Hodge, TE Tyler Higbee, LT Andrew Whitworth, LG Rodger Saffold, C John Sullivan, RG Austin Blythe, RT Rob Havenstein
Los Angeles gained 11.3 yards per pass attempt using this variation of 11-personnel, with the only difference to the group above being the use of undrafted rookie wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge over ex-Patriot Brandin Cooks. However, the package is not one regularly used by the Rams: the team employed the Hodge-for-Cooks group on only 31 offensive snaps this season, attempting a mere 12 passes.
When it comes to passing the football, the following group is more prominently featured and can be characterized as a pass-first package:
QB Jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley, WR Robert Woods, WR Josh Reynolds, WR Brandin Cooks, TE Gerald Everett, LT Andrew Whitworth, LG Rodger Saffold, C John Sullivan, RG Austin Blythe, RT Rob Havenstein
As opposed to the Rams’ most-used package, tight end Gerald Everett is on the field here instead of Tyler Higbee. Overall, L.A. trotted out this group for 137 snaps this season and on 121 of them Jared Goff dropped back to attempt a pass. Once again, however, the yardage gained per pass is below his season-long 8.2 yards per attempt as the team averages “only” 5.6 when using this 11-personnel group.
What’s the reason for this? As we discussed last week, Goff’s 2018 is essentially
a tale of two seasons. His numbers before and after the Rams’ week 12 bye look drastically different when compared to his early-season statistics. One number that reflects this is the oft-mentioned yards per attempt: Goff gained 9.3 yards per pass through the first eleven games, and only 6.5 over the seven since.
There are two basic factors that played into this decline. Not only did the team face four of the NFL’s playoff teams since the team’s bye week — the
Chicago Bears, the
Philadelphia Eagles, the
Dallas Cowboys and the
New Orleans Saints — it also lost the aforementioned Cooper Kupp to injury. Before tearing his ACL, Kupp averaged 14.2 yards per catch and scored six touchdowns as a core offensive playmaker for Los Angeles.
With him gone, Goff lost one of his most trusted weapons. Kupp’s replacement meanwhile, Josh Reynolds, is solid when catching the football — he averages 13.9 yards per reception — but has a much lower catch percentage: while Kupp caught 72.7% of his targets before his injury, Reynolds has a season-long catch rate of only 53.1%. And while it is not the lone reason for the statistical step back L.A. and its most prominent groups has taken, it still is a factor to be considered.
But while the passing efficiency suffered over the second half of the season, the running game is still going strong — and the package with Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, Brandin Cooks and Gerald Everett at the skill positions is actually pretty productive in the ground game, albeit not often used: on 12 rushing attempts out of this group, L.A. gained 6.3 yards per rush so far.
A more prominently used group when it comes to running the football is the following:
QB Jared Goff, RB C.J. Anderson, WR Robert Woods, WR Josh Reynolds, WR Brandin Cooks, TE Tyler Higbee, LT Andrew Whitworth, LG Rodger Saffold, C John Sullivan, RG Austin Blythe, RT Rob Havenstein
C.J. Anderson has come on strong since the Rams brought him on board in December, rushing for 466 yards and four touchdowns on just 82 attempts. When he is on the field, the team likes to run the football as the personnel group outlined above illustrates. Los Angeles used the group on a total of 60 snaps so far, with 41 of which turning into running plays — with a solid outcome on a yards-per-play basis: L.A. gains 5.1 yards a rush out of this group.
Overall, Anderson is a bit of a key for the Patriots to rely upon. When he is on the field, the play is more likely to be a run than a pass: Los Angeles attempted a rush on 60% of his snaps, which is not overwhelming in one direction but still more lopsided when compared to the usage of other groups — most prominently the one we outlined first, the Rams’ favorite package ever since losing Kupp to injury.
In general, though, one thing stands out: Los Angeles is an 11-personnel team, and capable of using it to both pass the football and run it as well. New England will likely counter with a nickel look to be safe against passing plays, but also has to put an emphasis on stopping the run game out of the package — something the Patriots have not been able to successfully do at times this year.
Ultimately, it would not be a surprise if the team used plenty of 5-1-5 alignments with the linebackers used to help set the edge and funnel plays into the middle towards big-bodied defenders
Lawrence Guy and
Malcom Brown. No matter how the Patriots opt to approach the Rams’ 11-personnel look, though, one thing is clear: it will be a tough test for a defense that has played impressive for stretches during the postseason so far.
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Their O packages scare me as much as the D-line
Our LB’s are average. The first half of KC was good and the second half came apart. Hopefully the secondary will give them the extra time to get to Goff.
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That's one of the brilliances of McVay...
… is that before so many teams would try to show so many packages and so many personnel varieties that it’s hard to track it all, easy to lose yourself in the cues. But McVay has gone the other way, to see how far down you can reduce the formations/personnel packages to where you do so much out of it that teams can’t get cues from those.
But it takes the personnel to make it work. In my mind, that’s Gurley. He’s versatile enough to make it happen. Not quite Faulk*, but close enough that it really stirs the drink.
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