The Goff-season Thread

[jrry32]

yeah. We had a whole conversation about marrying the two above lol. But using a measuring cup to put the right amount of milk into a recipe isn't the same as "I'll just watch it with my eyes" lol

PFF looks at each play as a series of individual matchups. And they grade each play based on what they see. But they admit they make no effort to determine scheme responsibilities when evaluating what they're seeing. The problem with that approach is that football isn't a game of individual matchups and understanding scheme responsibilities is central to understanding what went right and what went wrong.

To use an example, let's say we have an inside-zone play. Blythe is facing an elite NT. The scheme calls for Edwards to initially double the NT with Blythe and then to climb to the second level. But for whatever reason, Edwards climbs straight to the second level and pancakes the Mike LB. Without the help he's supposed to have, Blythe gets blown off the ball by the NT, who tackles Akers for a loss. If it were McVay judging this play, he'd almost certainly tell Edwards that the failure of the play was his fault. But PFF would actually grade Edwards positively for the play and blame Blythe for the failure in its grading.

Anyways, I'm beating a dead horse here, but that's why I don't put much stock in PFF's grades. I think their data is great and very useful. But I don't make judgments based on their grades. At best, they're a starting point.

 

[Ram_Rally]

PFF looks at each play as a series of individual matchups. And they grade each play based on what they see. But they admit they make no effort to determine scheme responsibilities when evaluating what they're seeing. The problem with that approach is that football isn't a game of individual matchups and understanding scheme responsibilities is central to understanding what went right and what went wrong.

To use an example, let's say we have an inside-zone play. Blythe is facing an elite NT. The scheme calls for Edwards to initially double the NT with Blythe and then to climb to the second level. But for whatever reason, Edwards climbs straight to the second level and pancakes the Mike LB. Without the help he's supposed to have, Blythe gets blown off the ball by the NT, who tackles Akers for a loss. If it were McVay judging this play, he'd almost certainly tell Edwards that the failure of the play was his fault. But PFF would actually grade Edwards positively for the play and blame Blythe for the failure in its grading.

Anyways, I'm beating a dead horse here, but that's why I don't put much stock in PFF's grades. I think their data is great and very useful. But I don't make judgments based on their grades. At best, they're a starting point.

I hear ya. But if they're the starting point. What we're doing feels archaic. But I hear ya.

 

[Bearrister]

PFF looks at each play as a series of individual matchups. And they grade each play based on what they see. But they admit they make no effort to determine scheme responsibilities when evaluating what they're seeing. The problem with that approach is that football isn't a game of individual matchups and understanding scheme responsibilities is central to understanding what went right and what went wrong.

To use an example, let's say we have an inside-zone play. Blythe is facing an elite NT. The scheme calls for Edwards to initially double the NT with Blythe and then to climb to the second level. But for whatever reason, Edwards climbs straight to the second level and pancakes the Mike LB. Without the help he's supposed to have, Blythe gets blown off the ball by the NT, who tackles Akers for a loss. If it were McVay judging this play, he'd almost certainly tell Edwards that the failure of the play was his fault. But PFF would actually grade Edwards positively for the play and blame Blythe for the failure in its grading.

Anyways, I'm beating a dead horse here, but that's why I don't put much stock in PFF's grades. I think their data is great and very useful. But I don't make judgments based on their grades. At best, they're a starting point.

Excellent explanation. I’m not one of those anti-analytics people - I think raw numbers have their place but they have to be put in context. Raw numbers alone often doesn’t tel the whole story.

 

[Ram_Rally]

PFF looks at each play as a series of individual matchups. And they grade each play based on what they see. But they admit they make no effort to determine scheme responsibilities when evaluating what they're seeing. The problem with that approach is that football isn't a game of individual matchups and understanding scheme responsibilities is central to understanding what went right and what went wrong.

To use an example, let's say we have an inside-zone play. Blythe is facing an elite NT. The scheme calls for Edwards to initially double the NT with Blythe and then to climb to the second level. But for whatever reason, Edwards climbs straight to the second level and pancakes the Mike LB. Without the help he's supposed to have, Blythe gets blown off the ball by the NT, who tackles Akers for a loss. If it were McVay judging this play, he'd almost certainly tell Edwards that the failure of the play was his fault. But PFF would actually grade Edwards positively for the play and blame Blythe for the failure in its grading.

Anyways, I'm beating a dead horse here, but that's why I don't put much stock in PFF's grades. I think their data is great and very useful. But I don't make judgments based on their grades. At best, they're a starting point.

I actually looked it up and they say that they do grade based on each players assignment on the play.

"The key to properly evaluating performance on any given play is understanding assignments. A common criticism of PFF is that we can’t possibly know what those assignments are, and thus can’t accurately evaluate. While the claim that we can’t know with 100% certainty a player’s assignment is valid, it doesn’t logically lead to the conclusion of not being able to accurately evaluate."

How we grade offensive and defensive linemen

Senior Analyst Mike Renner outlines how the team at Pro Football Focus grades offensive and defensive linemen.

www.pff.com

Am I interpreting that wrong?

Here's the video.

View: https://youtu.be/xVD-Hw7cTo4

 

[Ram_Rally]

Excellent explanation. I’m not one of those anti-analytics people - I think raw numbers have their place but they have to be put in context. Raw numbers alone often doesn’t tel the whole story.

Pff does add context. Here's a video explaining


View: https://youtu.be/xVD-Hw7cTo4

 

[Ballhawk]

Excellent explanation. I’m not one of those anti-analytics people - I think raw numbers have their place but they have to be put in context. Raw numbers alone often doesn’t tel the whole story.

I actually looked it up and they say that they do grade based on each players assignment on the play.

"The key to properly evaluating performance on any given play is understanding assignments. A common criticism of PFF is that we can’t possibly know what those assignments are, and thus can’t accurately evaluate. While the claim that we can’t know with 100% certainty a player’s assignment is valid, it doesn’t logically lead to the conclusion of not being able to accurately evaluate."

How we grade offensive and defensive linemen

Senior Analyst Mike Renner outlines how the team at Pro Football Focus grades offensive and defensive linemen.

www.pff.com

Am I interpreting that wrong?

Here's the video.


View: https://youtu.be/u6KU199DBgU

Makes you wonder just how they know exactly what the assignments are supposed to be.

 

[Tron]

My take on this which doesnt matter-

McVay made his comment out of frustration from the loss, thinking if we'd won the division and took a different route in the playoffs we'd be about to play in the SB, and blames Goff for the losses which cost us the division. Snead is trolling the media and fans for how over blown it's been taken, and just fkn with all of us, and in doing so creating more attention to us and LA.

As a result from all of this, McVay treats him more like someone who needs to be better so is hard on him, doesnt coddle him anymore, gets on his ass and makes him earn his check. Snead gets what he wants which is bringing attention to the Rams and LA and his players playing with a bit of an edge.

Goff keeps his stubble or grows a beard and keeps wearing the glove, gaining a kinda "fk this shit, and fuck the haters i'll show them, ima make the sun set wherever i want it" attitude, getting rid of the california kid, cool hand luke kinda attitude and it pisses him the fuck off so he wants to show everyone they are wrong. Goff grows into our new Warner, here to chew bubble gum and kick ass, but all out of bubble gum.

This is what I believe... I am drunk atm so..... Just hoping for the best

Or i could be beyond wrong and Goff and McVay/Snead are about to break up. Hoping for the former though.

 

[cvramsfan]

yeah. We had a whole conversation about marrying the two above lol. But using a measuring cup to put the right amount of milk into a recipe isn't the same as "I'll just watch it with my eyes" lol

I will bet that there a lot of cooks/chefs out there that would laugh at that, lol.

 

[Ram_Rally]

Makes you wonder just how they know exactly what the assignments are supposed to be.

They explain it here lol they don't know they assignments but they analyze it the same way an opposing coach would. And as they say in the vid, most coaches come around to what they're saying when they listen.

View: https://youtu.be/xVD-Hw7cTo4

 

[Ram_Rally]

I will bet that there a lot of cooks/chefs out there that would laugh at that, lol.

I dropped out of culinary for the same reason lol

 

[jrry32]

I actually looked it up and they say that they do grade based on each players assignment on the play.

"The key to properly evaluating performance on any given play is understanding assignments. A common criticism of PFF is that we can’t possibly know what those assignments are, and thus can’t accurately evaluate. While the claim that we can’t know with 100% certainty a player’s assignment is valid, it doesn’t logically lead to the conclusion of not being able to accurately evaluate."

How we grade offensive and defensive linemen

Senior Analyst Mike Renner outlines how the team at Pro Football Focus grades offensive and defensive linemen.

www.pff.com

Am I interpreting that wrong?

Here's the video.

View: https://youtu.be/xVD-Hw7cTo4

Well, that's a big change. Back in the day when I talked to the founder, he told me they don't make an effort to determine player responsibility. Although, your link doesn't exactly counter that. They basically say, "It's not complex, so we can guess what the assignment is, which conveniently is whatever the guy does on the play." So yeah, that doesn't alleviate my concerns. This is what T.J. Lang had to say about them:

TJ Lang: Pro Football Focus Is "Absolute Garbage"

Apparently, most NFL players feel the same way.

detroit.cbslocal.com

 

[BonifayRam]

Has Jared Goff already played his last game for the Los Angeles Rams? - Sports Illustrated

NFL Rumors: Rams Considering Trading Quarterback Jared Goff? - NESN.com

Jared Goff, Rams relationship appears to have 'some cracks' (247sports.com)

 

[jrry32]

They explain it here lol they don't know they assignments but they analyze it the same way an opposing coach would. And as they say in the vid, most coaches come around to what they're saying when they listen.

View: https://youtu.be/xVD-Hw7cTo4

But that's not accurate. When we're talking about the NFL, opposing coaches know the game well enough to have a strong understanding of what the play is trying to do and what the players' responsibilities are. To use an analogy to my career, I can read the brief of a non-lawyer representing himself and have an idea of what sort of legal claims he's trying to make even without him knowing the "magic words" to use for those claims (within reason). But if a person who wasn't a lawyer tried to read that brief, it's unlikely they'd have the knowledge to be able to put the pieces together like I can.

An opposing coach can look at the play as a whole and recognize the big picture in a manner that the PFF analysts simply can't because they don't have the same level of experience or knowledge.

 

[Ram_Rally]

Well, that's a big change. Back in the day when I talked to the founder, he told me they don't make an effort to determine player responsibility. Although, your link doesn't exactly counter that. They basically say, "It's not complex, so we can guess what the assignment is, which conveniently is whatever the guy does on the play." So yeah, that doesn't alleviate my concerns. This is what T.J. Lang had to say about them:

TJ Lang: Pro Football Focus Is "Absolute Garbage"

Apparently, most NFL players feel the same way.

detroit.cbslocal.com

I remember that haha. They've had some good wars. They did mention your scenario in the video though. They said (paraphrasing)

"If Joe thomas' assignment is the b gap and a rusher beats him, we don't blame thomas because his initial assignment put him in bad position vs the rusher". The video is a great watch. I think you'd like it. I only understood 45 percent of it but I'm sure you'd be better suited lol

 

[Ram_Rally]

But that's not accurate. When we're talking about the NFL, opposing coaches know the game well enough to have a strong understanding of what the play is trying to do and what the players' responsibilities are. To use an analogy to my career, I can read the brief of a non-lawyer representing himself and have an idea of what sort of legal claims he's trying to make even without him knowing the "magic words" to use for those claims (within reason). But if a person who wasn't a lawyer tried to read that brief, it's unlikely they'd have the knowledge to be able to put the pieces together like I can.

An opposing coach can look at the play as a whole and recognize the big picture in a manner that the PFF analysts simply can't because they don't have the same level of experience or knowledge.

But it's possible that they do have enough experience to develop a working system right? That's not to say they're so good at it that they good do the coaches job, but that they do have a higher understanding of it than most. Correct? I mean they actually work with teams. So I'm sure they have at least some respect from people in the building? They even say it themselves. They don't know the assignment "100 percent" but they do have an understanding.

 

[jrry32]

But it's possible that they do have enough experience to develop a working system right? That's not to say they're so good at it that they good do the coaches job, but that they do have a higher understanding of it than most. Correct? I mean they actually work with teams. So I'm sure they have at least some respect from people in the building? They even say it themselves. They don't know the assignment "100 percent" but they do have an understanding.

I can't speak to what they do with teams, as I've been out of the game for a long while. But back in the day when they were getting their start, teams weren't working with them in that way. They basically farmed out data entry to PFF. PFF's people would catalog every play and send them extraordinarily comprehensive data. But they weren't buying player grades or having their scouts and coaches work with PFF's people. They were just using PFF's massive and comprehensive amounts of data.

I'm sure when you watch that much football, it helps. But it only goes so far. There's a big picture understanding that they're simply not going to have. And that will limit them. Higher understanding then most? Sure. A high enough understanding to be able to account for the sort of problem I referenced? Being blunt, I doubt it.

 

[Gandalf]

Which is exactly my issue with eyeballing things. We see what we want.

How do most people evaluate things?

By what they see, no?

 

[Ram_Rally]

I can't speak to what they do with teams, as I've been out of the game for a long while. But back in the day when they were getting their start, teams weren't working with them in that way. They basically farmed out data entry to PFF. PFF's people would catalog every play and send them extraordinarily comprehensive data. But they weren't buying player grades or having their scouts and coaches work with PFF's people. They were just using PFF's massive and comprehensive amounts of data.

I'm sure when you watch that much football, it helps. But it only goes so far. There's a big picture understanding that they're simply not going to have. And that will limit them. Higher understanding then most? Sure. A high enough understanding to be able to account for the sort of problem I referenced? Being blunt, I doubt it.

I get that. It's difficult to quantify. By the way, really cool that you had so much experience with in depth stuff. I'd love to bend your ear and hear your story one day

 

[Ram_Rally]

How do most people evaluate things?

By what they see, no?

But it has to be quantified. So, In research (when I was in grad school) a team of people would have to sit down and agree on what fit a category. Example, what counts as a "qb hurry" vs the qb just holding the ball too long? There has to be objective variables. And it has to always be consistent.

 

[Gandalf]

yeah. We had a whole conversation about marrying the two above lol. But using a measuring cup to put the right amount of milk into a recipe isn't the same as "I'll just watch it with my eyes" lol

Depends on how many times you've made the recipe.