Peter King: Rams Must Trade Up, Draft Quarterback

[jrry32]

Well, Philly has 2 3rds and a future 1 thst would be higher, theoretically rtf ham ours, plus a pick tj is year as high as 9 if they lose Sunday.

For that matter the Titans could take that ninth pick and trade down again to say 15 or 16 and get another top 60 or 75 pick and still pick higher than 18th.

They have two thirds. We have two seconds. We can match any future 1st they offer. Philly doesn't have any more ammo than we do. We'll see where they end up picking.

And we have no idea who will be running that team. We don't know if they'll want to trade up.

 

[PhillyRam]

BTW, remember when Snead said back in 2012 that it was important to remain in the top ten when they traded that 2nd pick? I would think any gm worth their salt would do the same.

A rebuilding team would still want a diff maker in the draft after a deal. A top 5 or 10 pick could bring a big time OT prospect or a top pass rusher, or #1 WR. Harder to get those at 18 or 19.

 

[PhillyRam]

They have two thirds. We have two seconds. We can match any future 1st they offer. Philly doesn't have any more ammo than we do. We'll see where they end up picking.

And we have no idea who will be running that team. We don't know if they'll want to trade up.

Believe me Philly knows they need a franchise QB. They had one with McNabb, 2nd pick in draft, and they have not won a playoff game since he left. That is not lost on Lurie and that front office and the fans.

And yes they can offer more, a pick that might be 7-8 picks higher. If they win Sunday they drop to 15 or 16 and then they too would be out of the running if they are not already.

Anyway, it is a good discussion. Hopefully they can pull something off, I just dont think it is possible.

 

[jrry32]

BTW, remember when Snead said back in 2012 that it was important to remain in the top ten when they traded that 2nd pick? I would think any gm worth their salt would do the same.

A rebuilding team would still want a diff maker in the draft after a deal. A top 5 or 10 pick could bring a big time OT prospect or a top pass rusher, or #1 WR. Harder to get those at 18 or 19.

And then we traded out of the top 10.

Look, none of us know how the top teams see this draft. If you're the Titans and you don't think any player is a must have at #1, you're going to be willing to trade down. Then the question becomes if there is an offer good enough.

Unless they think this draft lacks talent at the top, I don't doubt that they would prefer to stay in the top 5 or 10. But if the Rams give them the best offer, it's not hard to believe that can override that desire.

I don't think you guys are giving enough recognition to how significant 3 1sts and a 2nd is. Look at what it allowed us to do. A team like Tennessee will look at that like we looked at it in 2012...as a godsend. They can build around their young QB and use all those picks to add talent to a team that needs it.

 

[jrry32]

Believe me Philly knows they need a franchise QB. They had one with McNabb, 2nd pick in draft, and they have not won a playoff game since he left. That is not lost on Lurie and that front office and the fans.

I'm sure they do know it. The question is...how much will they give up to get one? None of us know. Especially not now. Because we don't know who their coach will be.

 

[Memphis Ram]

@jrry32

Methinks you have totally eliminated possibilities to justify your Rams wishes here. I could see just about everything you've stated couldn't happen as a legit possibility. Especially, the Cowboys drafting a QB in the first round.

Also keep in mind when it comes to trade capital, things are still pretty fluid. Suitors could still acquire draft capital this offseason or even offer players that another team really wants to make up differences. Examples: WR Tim Dwight was included in the Vick trade package. The Jets trade up for Sanchez included 3 players. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

Finally, while the draft order isn't set and anything is possible, it's HIGHLY unlikely that any NFL team is going to move from #1 to #18 in any NFL draft class minus an extremely lopsided offer. Especially, if a QB is deemed as the top prize. These executives not only have to answer to their owner, but from what I understand many also care about how their peers might view a deal.

 

[jrry32]

@jrry32

Methinks you have totally eliminated possibilities to justify your Rams wishes here. I could see just about everything you've stated couldn't happen as a legit possibility. Especially, the Cowboys drafting a QB in the first round.

Also keep in mind when it comes to trade capital, things are still pretty fluid. Suitors could still acquire draft capital this offseason or even offer players that another team really wants to make up differences. Examples: WR Tim Dwight was included in the Vick trade package. The Jets trade up for Sanchez included 3 players. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

Finally, while the draft order isn't set and anything is possible, it's HIGHLY unlikely that any NFL team is going to move from #1 to #18 in any NFL draft class minus an extremely lopsided offer. Especially, if a QB is deemed as the top prize.

No. I have eliminated possibilities based on what I think makes total sense. The Cowboys are closer to contending for a Super Bowl than they are picking top 5. They picked top 5 this year because they lost Romo. They have an opportunity to hit a homerun here. They can trade down for a bunch of picks or they can take a top talent like Jalen Ramsey or an interior pass rusher to shore up the defense.

This is not a first round or bust class. There is a lot of QB depth in this class. It makes much more sense for a team like Dallas to grab a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round. Or if they want a developmental QB, to trade down and take a guy like Wentz in the mid first.

Although, obviously, if they think as highly of Goff as I do. It makes sense to take him top 5. But I don't think they likely will.

As for trading players, I don't think that will sway the deal if one team is offering a ton of picks. Plus, we have a few players we could trade.

As for moving up to #1, it's highly unlikely. Which is why I think our best chance is if the Browns don't draft Goff. Trading up with San Diego or Dallas is far more attainable.

Odds are that Tennessee will not want to trade down or will not want to trade down far. But I don't think it's logical to dismiss it as a total impossibility.

 

[Akrasian]

This is not a first round or bust class. There is a lot of QB depth in this class. It makes much more sense for a team like Dallas to grab a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Heh. So a team like the Rams, who would have to trade away a huge number of picks to get a QB, wouldn't just draft a guy later and use their draft capital to build up their team around him, while the Cowboys who have an aging, injury prone QB and could draft a top guy without trading additional picks wouldn't do that and would just hope that whomever they draft later works out? As has been pointed out, two years ago the Cowboys nearly drafted Manziel, but now they wouldn't draft a QB in the first round with Romo older and having suffered multiple major injuries?

Right.

Let me make it plain. The Rams are not going to make an idiotic RG3 type trade to move up to get Goff. They are too far down, and the only teams in NFL history that have traded that much draft capital for a player have ALL regretted it - the Vikings, the Saints, and the Redskins. And there is zero reason to think that a Fisher team would consider trading that much for a QB. In addition, despite your protestations, there are multiple teams - 3 in the top 5 - who need QBs and can get Goff either without a trade or with a relatively small trade, likely not involving a future pick at all - since your proposed Ram trade involves less than fair value on the pick trade value charts, no reason to suppose others would have to trade MORE in historic value. Finally, if the Rams were going to trade more than their first and a second for a QB, much more likely that they would trade for a veteran game manager from another team, and keep the extra picks to either get WRs, or to draft BPA. That fits in with what Snead and Fisher do. And makes much more sense - a vet would help them immediately, while an expensive rookie would hurt the team around him and wouldn't be ready immediately anyway.

 

[Memphis Ram]

No. I have eliminated possibilities based on what I think makes total sense. The Cowboys are closer to contending for a Super Bowl than they are picking top 5. They picked top 5 this year because they lost Romo. They have an opportunity to hit a homerun here. They can trade down for a bunch of picks or they can take a top talent like Jalen Ramsey or an interior pass rusher to shore up the defense.

This is not a first round or bust class. There is a lot of QB depth in this class. It makes much more sense for a team like Dallas to grab a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round. Or if they want a developmental QB, to trade down and take a guy like Wentz in the mid first.

Although, obviously, if they think as highly of Goff as I do. It makes sense to take him top 5. But I don't think they likely will.

As for trading players, I don't think that will sway the deal if one team is offering a ton of picks. Plus, we have a few players we could trade.

As for moving up to #1, it's highly unlikely. Which is why I think our best chance is if the Browns don't draft Goff. Trading up with San Diego or Dallas is far more attainable.

Odds are that Tennessee will not want to trade down or will not want to trade down far. But I don't think it's logical to dismiss it as a total impossibility.

I understand. Depends upon each person's opinion I guess.

IMO, it doesn't makes total sense for the Cowboys to pass on a potential franchise QB (if they see one) for a rookie at another position in hopes that said rookie is going to help them enough short term to get over the hump. Especially, given the limited opportunities teams have to acquire such players, Romo's age and injury history, and the object lesson they experienced this season. And if he goes down again, which given his age and injury history is a real possibility, they are in the same boat. I'm sure Jones hasn't forgotten the 4-5 year lull from Aikman to Romo.

If agreed, not being a first round of bust class at QB for the Cowboys holds true for the Rams, too.

BTW, while it depends upon the players being discussed, I could easily see how proven players could be of more value than future possibilities (picks) to another team. Especially, if said players know the system being implemented.

 

[Force16X]

Heh. So a team like the Rams, who would have to trade away a huge number of picks to get a QB, wouldn't just draft a guy later and use their draft capital to build up their team around him, while the Cowboys who have an aging, injury prone QB and could draft a top guy without trading additional picks wouldn't do that and would just hope that whomever they draft later works out? As has been pointed out, two years ago the Cowboys nearly drafted Manziel, but now they wouldn't draft a QB in the first round with Romo older and having suffered multiple major injuries?

Right.

Let me make it plain. The Rams are not going to make an idiotic RG3 type trade to move up to get Goff. They are too far down, and the only teams in NFL history that have traded that much draft capital for a player have ALL regretted it - the Vikings, the Saints, and the Redskins. And there is zero reason to think that a Fisher team would consider trading that much for a QB. In addition, despite your protestations, there are multiple teams - 3 in the top 5 - who need QBs and can get Goff either without a trade or with a relatively small trade, likely not involving a future pick at all - since your proposed Ram trade involves less than fair value on the pick trade value charts, no reason to suppose others would have to trade MORE in historic value. Finally, if the Rams were going to trade more than their first and a second for a QB, much more likely that they would trade for a veteran game manager from another team, and keep the extra picks to either get WRs, or to draft BPA. That fits in with what Snead and Fisher do. And makes much more sense - a vet would help them immediately, while an expensive rookie would hurt the team around him and wouldn't be ready immediately anyway.

other than the fact the Rams need a franchise QB, i dont see anything resembling that in the draft..................other than that is whats available in april. the only reason to trade up is to get joey bosa. the Rams are not 1 player away from being relevant. connor cook was pretty inefficient tonight. the NFL is a little tougher than Alabama by the way. and to the poor folks here whose feathers i ruffle, come back to reality. hopefully the Rams will shore up the OL and get a WR or two that can get open and lets see what keenum and mannion can do instead of wishes and prayers.

 

[Rainram]

Two things I haven't seen mentioned...but then I did skim over some of this.

1. If Tennessee were to trade down with us doesn't mean they have to pick at 18. They could very well try to trade back up a bit. I think a lot of this depends on who Tennessee wants in this draft.

2. I wonder if it's possible for us to offload a player or two in a deal to Tennessee and not just a shit ton of picks.

 

[jrry32]

Heh. So a team like the Rams, who would have to trade away a huge number of picks to get a QB, wouldn't just draft a guy later and use their draft capital to build up their team around him, while the Cowboys who have an aging, injury prone QB and could draft a top guy without trading additional picks wouldn't do that and would just hope that whomever they draft later works out? As has been pointed out, two years ago the Cowboys nearly drafted Manziel, but now they wouldn't draft a QB in the first round with Romo older and having suffered multiple major injuries?

Right.

Yes. A team like the Rams that desperately needs a QB to contend. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have a franchise QB who led the NFL in QB Rating in 2014.

So...the Cowboys have a few options:
1. Draft a QB in the top 5. And have him backup Romo for the next two years.
2. Draft an impact player at a position where they have a need in the top 5. Draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round to develop behind Romo for the next two years.
3. Trade down, get a bunch of picks, and draft a QB in the mid first round to develop behind Romo for the next two years.
4. Draft an impact player at a position where they have a need in the top 5. Trade for a young QB to develop behind Romo for the next two years.

Stop acting like the first option is the only option. I don't happen to believe it's the most likely option.

Yes. The Cowboys ALMOST drafted Manziel...because Jerry Jones had a raging hard-on for him. And guess what happened? Stephen Jones talked him out of it to address a need. But they ALMOST drafted Manziel in the mid first round. Not in the top 5. There's a huge difference.

I don't doubt that they're going to draft or trade for a QB. I do doubt they're going to insist on spending a top 5 pick to do so.

Let me make it plain. The Rams are not going to make an idiotic RG3 type trade to move up to get Goff. They are too far down, and the only teams in NFL history that have traded that much draft capital for a player have ALL regretted it - the Vikings, the Saints, and the Redskins. And there is zero reason to think that a Fisher team would consider trading that much for a QB. In addition, despite your protestations, there are multiple teams - 3 in the top 5 - who need QBs and can get Goff either without a trade or with a relatively small trade, likely not involving a future pick at all - since your proposed Ram trade involves less than fair value on the pick trade value charts, no reason to suppose others would have to trade MORE in historic value. Finally, if the Rams were going to trade more than their first and a second for a QB, much more likely that they would trade for a veteran game manager from another team, and keep the extra picks to either get WRs, or to draft BPA. That fits in with what Snead and Fisher do. And makes much more sense - a vet would help them immediately, while an expensive rookie would hurt the team around him and wouldn't be ready immediately anyway.

Let me make it plain: I don't give a shit. I'm going to express my opinion whether or not it's popular. Your opinion is not reality. Somebody else "made it plain" a couple years ago to me that the Rams would not draft Aaron Donald in the first round. The Rams didn't need a DT. He was too small to fit Waufle's mold. And the Rams needed a CB. That person claimed it was reality and I needed to accept it.(wasn't a person on this board in case anyone is wondering)

Guess what? Wasn't reality. It was their opinion. Just like this is your opinion. And I have mine. I know what I want the Rams to do. I know it isn't likely. I know the Browns are going to be a difficult hurdle. But it's not going to stop me taking a stance that I believe is right. You seem hellbent on proving that it's impossible. Well, it ain't.

Don't try and tell me what reality is. I don't care what you think reality is. Your reality isn't my reality. I respect your opinion. I respect your stance. But I don't agree with you.

I think Goff is going to be a great QB. I think the Rams need to do whatever it takes to get him. And I think if he gets by the Browns, the Rams can make a trade up to get him. I don't see a trade up to #1 being likely. But it's not impossible. If it takes a RGIII type trade, so be it. I'd pay that price.

other than the fact the Rams need a franchise QB, i dont see anything resembling that in the draft..................other than that is whats available in april. the only reason to trade up is to get joey bosa. the Rams are not 1 player away from being relevant. connor cook was pretty inefficient tonight. the NFL is a little tougher than Alabama by the way. and to the poor folks here whose feathers i ruffle, come back to reality. hopefully the Rams will shore up the OL and get a WR or two that can get open and lets see what keenum and mannion can do instead of wishes and prayers.

We were not talking about Connor Cook. But you overlooked a pretty important thing...playing on a NFL team means playing with NFL talent. Alabama is the most talented team in college football. Cook was playing with college players against Alabama. Which is why his OL got whipped badly and his WRs were blanketed for much of the game.(kind of sounds like the issues Sam and Bulger had)

And this team has no business trading up for Joey Bosa. That would be a bad move.

 

[ViennaMax]

Two things I haven't seen mentioned...but then I did skim over some of this.

2. I wonder if it's possible for us to offload a player or two in a deal to Tennessee and not just a crap ton of picks.

what about foles and cook?

 

[Tron]

other than the fact the Rams need a franchise QB, i dont see anything resembling that in the draft..................other than that is whats available in april. the only reason to trade up is to get joey bosa. the Rams are not 1 player away from being relevant. connor cook was pretty inefficient tonight. the NFL is a little tougher than Alabama by the way. and to the poor folks here whose feathers i ruffle, come back to reality. hopefully the Rams will shore up the OL and get a WR or two that can get open and lets see what keenum and mannion can do instead of wishes and prayers.

Really? Bosa is who'd you'd expect us to trade up for? If Fisher did that I'd stop watching the Rams. Trade up for a DE? I hope you are joking.

 

[jrry32]

I understand. Depends upon each person's opinion I guess.

IMO, it doesn't makes total sense for the Cowboys to pass on a potential franchise QB (if they see one) for a rookie at another position in hopes that said rookie is going to help them enough short term to get over the hump. Especially, given the limited opportunities teams have to acquire such players, Romo's age and injury history, and the object lesson they experienced this season. And if he goes down again, which given his age and injury history is a real possibility, they are in the same boat. I'm sure Jones hasn't forgotten the 4-5 year lull from Aikman to Romo.

BTW, while it depends upon the players being discussed, I could easily see how proven players could be of more value than future possibilities (picks) to another team. Especially, if said players know the system being implemented.

I agree. But, at the same time, I think they know how close they are and recognize that Romo will be there for the next two years. In that case, it makes sense for them to go all in with that pick for the Super Bowl.

If agreed, not being a first round of bust class at QB for the Cowboys holds true for the Rams, too.

Absolutely. Difference is that the Cowboys have time. The Rams do not. It's why a guy like Wentz or Hackenberg (as much as I dislike him) or Cardale Jones or Jacoby Brissett or Nate Sudfeld makes plenty of sense for Dallas but not as much for the Rams. They have time to develop their next QB behind Romo. I think the world of Carson Wentz but I also recognize that he needs development before he plays to fully reach his potential. The Rams don't have the same ability to offer that.

So I think it makes plenty of sense to a team like Dallas to take something like:
#18
2nd
2017 1st
2017 4th

From the Rams for Goff. They take Wentz at #18 to develop behind Romo. And then they gain a future 1st, a 2nd, and a future 4th. The Rams get a more pro ready passer with a very high ceiling.

But I won't be crying if we end up with Connor Cook or Paxton Lynch or Carson Wentz.

 

[FrankenRam]

Yet again, your ire is misplaced. I don't agree with the BPA draft strategy because it ignores positional value. I agree with BVA. But this is the year the Rams put it aside and go after a QB in the first round. Come second round, go right back to BVA.

You keep assuming he (and I) slammed the strategy. Neither of us did. But this year? Damn BVA (and BPA). The Rams need to draft a QB.

You're choosing to ignore the message to take one sentence out of context.

I'm not ignoring anything. There is a limit to what they should give up to draft a QB. I, for one, hope they don't mortgage the future and give up an RG3 like bounty to grab one. There is no player worth risking that much for.

 

[jrry32]

I'm not ignoring anything. There is a limit to what they should give up to draft a QB. I, for one, hope they don't mortgage the future and give up an RG3 like bounty to grab one. There is no player worth risking that much for.

And that's where we disagree. There are a few players worth risking that much for. And they all play QB.

 

[FrankenRam]

And that's where we disagree. There are a few players worth risking that much for. And they all play QB.

We definitely disagree. The draft is simply too big a crapshoot to risk that much....on any single player. Is it possible the one the Rams would trade up for would turn out to be the next Brady, Manning, or Luck. Sure....it's possible. It's equally possible he could turn out to be the next RG3 or Ryan Leaf. And unless/until someone obtains an actual functioning crystal ball, risking what the Skins gave up for RG3 is just too big a gamble.

 

[jrry32]

We definitely disagree. The draft is simply too big a crapshoot to risk that much....on any single player. Is it possible the one the Rams would trade up for would turn out to be the next Brady, Manning, or Luck. Sure....it's possible. It's equally possible he could turn out to be the next RG3 or Ryan Leaf. And unless/until someone obtains an actual functioning crystal ball, risking what the Skins gave up for RG3 is just too big a gamble.

Sometimes, you just have to trust your gut. No such thing as a sure thing but I think the juice is the worth the squeeze.

 

[FrankenRam]

Sometimes, you just have to trust your gut. No such thing as a sure thing but I think the juice is the worth the squeeze.

Ahhh...., the infamous 'gut instinct'. THE quickest way for a coach/GM to earn themselves a seat in the stands with the fans.

I remember board members (not you) having a 'gut instinct' last year that Austin Davis would be the Rams' starting QB this year, and insisting their 'gut' was right more often than not.

Sarcasm aside, there is a bit of 'gut instinct' in a lot of picks...no question. Drafting players is not remotely a pure science. And I'm fine with that in later rounds, and even at #18 in the first if there are multiple players a team has rated fairly closely. But trusting gut instinct to make an RG3 like deal........not in this lifetime.