Peter King: Rams Must Trade Up, Draft Quarterback

[kurtfaulk]

QB really is the only position to push this crap team over the hump.

crap team? really?

no qb will get a crap team over the hump. that's why they're crap.

a qb will get a team a "qb away from getting over the hump" over the hump. this is where the rams sit.

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[Dieter the Brock]

gee jerry, i hope this doesn't turn into another "rams fan in pittsburgh" situation. you're not gonna get all bitter and twisted if the rams don't do what you want are you? you're too good a poster for this board to lose.

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Seriously

 

[jrry32]

Are you saying that it makes sense because it's logical? Or that it makes sense based upon how you feel about the Cowboys decision making abilities?

Would you make the same decision if you ran the Cowboys organization?

You'd bank on the availability of your soon to be 36 year old QB coming off collarbone break(s) and back injury history? You'd pass on the rare chance at a so-called potential franchise QB in hopes of developing a later round selection who may or may not pan out? You'd actually bank on a rookie at another position making a significant enough immediate impact to make a difference elsewhere instead? Really?

Both. Would I make the same decision? No. But I rate Goff extremely highly. If the Cowboys don't have the same high rating, they won't be making the same decisions.

But frankly, I'd strongly consider a RGIII type offer in their shoes (or an offer where they get a future 1st) if I thought I could trade back and get Carson Wentz. Might even take it despite how high I am on Goff...because I am also high on Wentz and think the ideal situation for him is to sit and develop.

Maybe you are answering my earlier questions here.

The Cowboys have time to develop another QB because they have Romo. But, the Rams don't have time to develop someone not named Goff because they don't have a Romo?

Problem is Goff will be a rookie coming from a college spread offense and will have to be developed, too. If the Rams don't have time then what they really need to do is try to package some picks to acquire a veteran.

Goff can develop on the field and provide effective enough play as a rookie for the Rams to make the playoffs.

They could go after a veteran...but why? Teams with a young veteran aren't going to trade him. I'm not trading a huge package for a QB past 30 years old (unless it's Aaron Rodgers). The advantage of Goff is that we have him under cheap team control for the next few years and we get the kid for the next decade plus.

I don't know how much you have seen of Lynch, but he is not a plug and play kid. He is another spread QB that will not help next year. Goff likely will not help either being another spread guy.

Fact is Mannion is more likely ready to play now then those two guys right at this point.

Now if they dont like Mannion then they have to draft a kid to groom, but dont expect that kid to step in and take this team to the playoffs. There is no Luck in this draft and even if there were, you can't get him with where the Rams are drafting.

Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Marcus Mariota, RGIII, Derek Carr, and Andy Dalton all came out of spread offenses in the past 5 years and played at a high enough level that the 2015 Rams would have made the playoffs if they were our starter.

In fact, Paxton Lynch played in the same system that Andy Dalton played in. Guess where Andy Dalton's team ended up his rookie year? The playoffs.

Fact is that Mannion is more ready to play. But it's not about being ready to play. It's about being the better QB. Nick Foles was more ready to play last year than any of these guys will be next year...but he was a far lesser QB. If Mannion is more NFL ready and the better QB, he'll play. He'll win the competition.

I do expect one of those kids to step in and take us to the playoffs.

 

[jrry32]

@jrry32

A couple years back (and perhaps still today) you did a lot of work and were extremely high on Teddy Bridgewater as being the best QB in the 2014 draft class. How does Goff compare to you rating wise?

Better. Better pure thrower.

Both guys had outstanding pocket presence, movement, and poise under pressure. Both guys process things extremely quickly on the field. Teddy was a better decision-maker as Goff takes more risks. Goff has a better throwing motion. So the difference for me is that Goff has a stronger arm and better overall accuracy. Teddy was a scattershot deep thrower.

Goff needs to polish his footwork a bit and he's coming from a system that isn't Pro Style (unlike Bridgewater). But I'm not concerned based on what I've seen and know about the kid.

 

[jrry32]

gee jerry, i hope this doesn't turn into another "rams fan in pittsburgh" situation. you're not gonna get all bitter and twisted if the rams don't do what you want are you? you're too good a poster for this board to lose.

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Nope. If I'm unhappy, I'll leave and come back when I am happy with the direction of the team. Not going to stay here and project my unhappiness onto you guys.

I won't be upset if the Rams address the QB position properly.(and no, Goff isn't the only way to do that) If they don't address it, though, I'll be upset.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Goff can develop on the field and provide effective enough play as a rookie for the Rams to make the playoffs.

So you believe that Goff can do this and the others cannot. I disagree, but I better understand your point of view now.

Fact is that Mannion is more ready to play. But it's not about being ready to play. It's about being the better QB. Nick Foles was more ready to play last year than any of these guys will be next year...but he was a far lesser QB. If Mannion is more NFL ready and the better QB, he'll play. He'll win the competition.

As far as having a legit competition, drafting a QB in the first round is tough enough. But, shelling out a butt load of selections to move up and draft one in the first round automatically makes any sort of competition obsolete. That player is going to be the starting QB, if healthy. Bar none.

 

[blackbart]

Yes. A team like the Rams that desperately needs a QB to contend.

This is not everyone's opinion. They are likley to end up 1 game out of the playoffs this year. I doubt that they are a desperate as you make them out to be.

 

[Lesson]

I'm OK with not drafting a QB in the 1st.

If that happens, though, I'd want a QB to still be selected no later than the 2nd or for another QB to be brought in via FA or trade who would be a clear step above Keenum. I'd like to see how good Mannion is, but I don't think it would be fair to get a good evaluation on him until he actually starts and plays in multiple regular season games.

 

[PARAM]

Jared Goff.

Okay. So we have a first and two seconds and future firsts to give away. Goff is worth all that. So what team in position to draft him would be dumb enough to take that deal and pass on Goff? And what happens to the team who finds somebody dumb enough to pass on him and take all those picks, if Goff doesn't pan out. I don't buy into the "can't miss" descriptions. Seen too many of them fall flat on their faces.

I just don't think anybody is worthy of a trade like that. It's a crapshoot. From 2001-2014 twenty-five QB's have been taken in the top 16 of round one. Knowing what we know now there may be 8 of them taken now. Maybe. That's not a good average and that's with paid NFL evaluators rating them.

 

[Akrasian]

This is not everyone's opinion. They are likley to end up 1 game out of the playoffs this year. I doubt that they are a desperate as you make them out to be.

Especially since if the Rams had the level of play of Case Keenum the last three games all season long they likely would have won a game or two more. Now imagine the level of Case Keenum (or even better, if Mannion is ready next season and productive) combined with an actual receiving corps, and an OL not manned almost entirely by rookies or rookies for practical purposes - I suspect they would be better.

I'm not saying don't get a QB - I'm saying that it would be foolish to trade so much for ANY player, since in fact there is no such animal as a sure thing in the NFL. Even if the talent is there, AND they can pick up the NFL quickly (unlike many QBs coming out of a spread) things can happen. Or is Sam already forgotten? For that matter, is Clowney forgotten? He's playing better, but thanks to injuries he may never reach the levels predicted.

Now, if a QB they like falls, and they can trade up with a second to get him, that's different than a trade that would make the RG3 trade look small. Or if they can get a veteran QB better than Keenum, that is fine too. Use the picks saved to fill in any holes from players lost in free agency, and, you know - get a freakin' WR or two.

 

[jrry32]

Okay. So we have a first and two seconds and future firsts to give away. Goff is worth all that. So what team in position to draft him would be dumb enough to take that deal and pass on Goff? And what happens to the team who finds somebody dumb enough to pass on him and take all those picks, if Goff doesn't pan out. I don't buy into the "can't miss" descriptions. Seen too many of them fall flat on their faces.

I just don't think anybody is worthy of a trade like that. It's a crapshoot. From 2001-2014 twenty-five QB's have been taken in the top 16 of round one. Knowing what we know now there may be 8 of them taken now. Maybe. That's not a good average and that's with paid NFL evaluators rating them.

We're going in circles with this. Every person has brought this up and I've replied with the same answer. That is my evaluation. NFL teams may or may not share it. Different NFL teams will rate the same prospects differently. You can't assume because I love Goff that every NFL team will. Even if the Rams love Goff as much as I do, that doesn't mean the Browns will or the Cowboys will.

What happens if he doesn't pan out? Life goes on. Redskins are in the playoffs despite RGIII not panning out.

But I'm betting on him panning out.

So you believe that Goff can do this and the others cannot. I disagree, but I better understand your point of view now.

I never said that. I think all of the QBs except Wentz can. And Wentz can prove otherwise at the Senior Bowl.

As far as having a legit competition, drafting a QB in the first round is tough enough. But, shelling out a butt load of selections to move up and draft one in the first round automatically makes any sort of competition obsolete. That player is going to be the starting QB, if healthy. Bar none.

Why? It's a sunk cost. If he's not as ready, you play Mannion. They picked Robinson at #2 and didn't start him Week 1 when he wasn't ready.

 

[jrry32]

This is not everyone's opinion. They are likley to end up 1 game out of the playoffs this year. I doubt that they are a desperate as you make them out to be.

I think you made my point for me. They have a top 10 defense and a top 10 running game this year. We still are going to end up at .500 and out of the playoffs. The Rams are absolutely desperate for a QB. Because we're right on the cusp of being a true contender. And that will push us over the edge.(although, we still need to add a couple weapons in addition to the QB)

 

[blackbart]

I think you made my point for me. They have a top 10 defense and a top 10 running game this year. We still are going to end up at .500 and out of the playoffs. The Rams are absolutely desperate for a QB. Because we're right on the cusp of being a true contender. And that will push us over the edge.(although, we still need to add a couple weapons in addition to the QB)

It's all good jrry we are all just guessing what might happen over the next few months.

I really didn't make your point I just tried to show why they are nowhere near the desperate organization you want them to be so they might freak out and pull off this crazy trade to get in position to get the guy you want. They aren't desperate and they are smarter than that. And deep down I think you know that. Your original mock is much closer to being something that is in the world of possibilities.

 

[jrry32]

It's all good jrry we are all just guessing what might happen over the next few months.

I really didn't make your point I just tried to show why they are nowhere near the desperate organization you want them to be so they might freak out and pull off this crazy trade to get in position to get the guy you want. They aren't desperate and they are smarter than that. And deep down I think you know that. Your original mock is much closer to being something that is in the world of possibilities.

The better your team, the more desperate you are if you can't make the playoffs. Especially a coach going into the final year of his contract. The Rams should have been in the playoffs this year. But they rolled with the wrong QB(s). And that's why Fisher should be desperate to fix the problem.

 

[blackbart]

The better your team, the more desperate you are if you can't make the playoffs. Especially a coach going into the final year of his contract. The Rams should have been in the playoffs this year. But they rolled with the wrong QB(s). And that's why Fisher should be desperate to fix the problem.

At the beginning of the year I really would have been amazed if they made it with that oline. Now that we are the end it seems they did great getting through the injuries but waited too long to pull the plug on Foles. Too bad he turned out to be such a waste.

 

[jrry32]

At the beginning of the year I really would have been amazed if they made it with that oline. Now that we are the end it seems they did great getting through the injuries but waited too long to pull the plug on Foles. Too bad he turned out to be such a waste.

I'm not sure Keenum gets us there. It's possible. But it likely would have come down to Sunday even if Keenum started all year.(I think we'd have 1 more win)

Regardless, I don't think either guy is the answer. And I don't think either guy can be relied on to get us to the playoffs. Can Mannion? I don't know. If they roll with him next year, I sure hope so. But I'm not optimistic. I do think the right rookie QB can play well enough for us to make the playoffs.

I brought up Andy Dalton not too long ago. Came out of spread offense (Paxton Lynch's coach was his OC) and did enough as a rookie for the Bengals to make the playoffs. Didn't put up amazing numbers but played well enough for the Bengals to make it. That's all we need. And Dalton isn't the most physically talented guy in the world. So I don't think it's crazy to think one of these rookies could get us to the post-season in 2016. And then in 2017...watch out.

 

[OldSchool]

LOL glad I read this thread the comedic relief was amazing. People making assumptions, criticizing others for their own assumptions, making assumptions based off random assumptions then defending three tiers of assumptions. I've seen @jrry32 say it several times. We don't know who ahead of us is going to do what with their picks or why they're going to do it. Hell a handful of the teams ahead of us we don't even know who's going to be making the picks so assuming that team will or won't do something is asinine. Another thing is the Rams don't seem to have as many holes as some of the teams ahead of us do, making it less likely they'll bundle picks to move up(that much at least most people should be able to agree on). Goff looks by many to be the real deal and somebody the Rams could really use. We've only had a couple QB's worthy of the franchise lable in 30 years. I for one am tired of the musical chairs under center.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AyCNjJNWKfs

 

[VegasRam]

I generally concur that the Rams should go after a QB high, but at max our 1st and both 2nds IF it's Goff. Otherwise, he'll to the no. No future 1sts.

@jerry 32, in your opinion, why is Goff that much better than Mannion?

 

[Akrasian]

LOL glad I read this thread the comedic relief was amazing. People making assumptions, criticizing others for their own assumptions, making assumptions based off random assumptions then defending three tiers of assumptions. I've seen @jrry32 say it several times. We don't know who ahead of us is going to do what with their picks or why they're going to do it. Hell a handful of the teams ahead of us we don't even know who's going to be making the picks so assuming that team will or won't do something is asinine. Another thing is the Rams don't seem to have as many holes as some of the teams ahead of us do, making it less likely they'll bundle picks to move up(that much at least most people should be able to agree on). Goff looks by many to be the real deal and somebody the Rams could really use. We've only had a couple QB's worthy of the franchise lable in 30 years. I for one am tired of the musical chairs under center.

Yeah, there are differences in assumptions. For instance, yes it is an assumption that a trade would require something close to the traditional draft pick trade value chart - but since that chart is based on what it normally costs to make a trade, and since it's well known that trading up for an elite QB tends to cost more, it is much less of an assumption to expect that to be the cost of a trade than to argue that a trade would be WAY under what the charts expect.

It is an assumption that the Browns would want to draft a QB - but since they have been trying to get an elite QB for 5-6 years, have made major offers to do so, to think that they would be happy with Manziel when a top QB prospect is falling in their lap is ridiculous. They might not end up with Goff, but they will take a top QB prospect - currently the thinking is that there are two.

Oh, and to think that Goff is clearly worth a RG3 trade, but that other teams won't recognize that he is at least worth a lesser trade up, is unreasonable. If Goff is that good, other teams should be expected to realize that he is valuable at least. They might not value him as much, but since other teams are in MUCH better position to draft him, they don't need to in order to beat out the Rams.

It's an assumption to think that the Cowboys will want a QB - but since they considered strongly taking Manziel two years ago, since their 35 year old QB had two major injuries this year, and since cutting Romo in two years would save them over $16 million, it is a far more reasonable assumption to think that the Cowboys would strongly considering drafting a potential star QB when he falls to them.

The 9ers of course are in the market for Goff. And if they feel it necessary to trade up - it really won't take that much for the #5 pick in the draft (where they currently are) to move up. Certainly nowhere close to a RG3 level trade. It is a huge assumption that the Chargers would prefer a bunch of much lower draft picks over a high pick or two, since historically teams go with the high pick.

This is what bothers me - some posters accept ridiculous assumptions as equivalent to ones that actually fit in with history and what is in team's interests.