Peter King: Rams Must Trade Up, Draft Quarterback

[Akrasian]

Nah. You're overstating things. The RGIII trade was truly one of a kind. You almost never see that sort of value. I think, at most, it would cost us what RGIII cost Washington. Might cost us less considering the lack of competition.

But I don't see us trading up to #1.

Actually, I was understating things by the draft value chart.

http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

First overall is worth 3000 points - #18 is worth 900, leaving 2100 to go. I'm figuring the Eagles' #2 would be 11th in the round, and ours would be 17th, which adds up to 880 points, leaving 1220. Future picks are devalued by a round or so in theory, so two future firsts would still not be worth 1220.

And I'm not sure why you'd think there would be less competition - the Browns need a QB, the 9ers need a QB, other teams would like an impact QB if Goff is one - and the Browns and 9ers especially will be picking much higher than the Rams. As I've said elsewhere, the Browns' could trade their pick, guaranteeing Tennessee their choice of any non-QB. Might take their second to do so - but that would be more valuable on the trade chart than the above Rams' trade.

The reason you don't see trade ups from #18 to the top of the draft is that it takes far too much in trade most years - i.e., years where there are actually a few elite players available.

But you're right - the Rams won't trade up to #1, because it would take far too much and would cripple the team's depth for years to come. So unless teams decide that Goff isn't a sure thing and he drops (and he could still be at the top merely being a nice QB prospect) the Rams have no affordable chance at him.

If there is a QB they really like I could see them trading a second to move up to 10 or so. That's if they decide that they don't want to give Mannion a chance. If they like Mannion enough, they could easily decide that it would be better to go for BPA in the first, and say use their seconds to get a WR and a CB.

 

[PARAM]

Good receivers are easier to find than good qb's. Give Keenum a couple receivefs who actually scare somebody and watch the difference it makes. No doubt in my mind our passing game moves to the middle of the pack and coupled with our running game and elite defense we will break the string of non winning seasons and string of missing the playoffs. All predicated on continued improvement on the OL.

Gotta agree here. I'm not saying Keenum is THE GUY and I'm not saying Foles isn't. Give em time and targets and it'll make a world of difference. I can't remember many highly drafted QB's who came in, made a mediocre receiving corp (and offense, urgo team better) immediately. Keep on the current path. Draft solid football players and make the team better. I don't want a 26 million dollar a year QB. Too many cap eggs in one basket. How many times has Peyton won a SB? Marino? Favre? I'll take the decent guy and a great team everyday.

 

[RamWoodie]

I'm not sure I agree with King. My main reasoning is...

WHAT DO YOU HAVE IN MANNION?

Does anyone know?

 

[jrry32]

Actually, I was understating things by the draft value chart.

http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

First overall is worth 3000 points - #18 is worth 900, leaving 2100 to go. I'm figuring the Eagles' #2 would be 11th in the round, and ours would be 17th, which adds up to 880 points, leaving 1220. Future picks are devalued by a round or so in theory, so two future firsts would still not be worth 1220.

Find me one trade where a team gave up more than Washington did to move up in the draft. I'll wait.

You didn't understate things. And using the trade value chart doesn't make that point. Especially when you overly devalue future picks.

And I'm not sure why you'd think there would be less competition - the Browns need a QB, the 9ers need a QB, other teams would like an impact QB if Goff is one - and the Browns and 9ers especially will be picking much higher than the Rams. As I've said elsewhere, the Browns' could trade their pick, guaranteeing Tennessee their choice of any non-QB. Might take their second to do so - but that would be more valuable on the trade chart than the above Rams' trade.

More valuable on the trade chart =/= more valuable to the Titans. That's what you're not getting. It all depends on how the Titans see this draft and see the next couple of drafts. And how they evaluate their needs.

But you're assuming we need to trade up to #1. The Browns could easily choose to stick with Manziel or not like Goff as a prospect.

The 49ers are competition. But with all of their holes, they can't afford to make the same trade we can.

The reason you don't see trade ups from #18 to the top of the draft is that it takes far too much in trade most years - i.e., years where there are actually a few elite players available.

The #1 pick is almost never traded. But you're assuming our only option is to trade up to #1.

But you're right - the Rams won't trade up to #1, because it would take far too much and would cripple the team's depth for years to come. So unless teams decide that Goff isn't a sure thing and he drops (and he could still be at the top merely being a nice QB prospect) the Rams have no affordable chance at him.

If the Rams offered a RGIII deal, I bet they could move up to #1. But at this point, it's unclear if that's necessary.

If there is a QB they really like I could see them trading a second to move up to 10 or so.

I'm fine with that too. But if there's an opportunity to get Goff, I'm taking it.

 

[jrry32]

I'm not sure I agree with King. My main reasoning is...

WHAT DO YOU HAVE IN MANNION?

Does anyone know?

Nope. And that's the problem. You don't bet it all on a 3rd round pick that didn't get on the field as a rookie despite incompetent QB play ahead of him when your team is playoff caliber and needs a QB.

Gotta agree here. I'm not saying Keenum is THE GUY and I'm not saying Foles isn't. Give em time and targets and it'll make a world of difference. I can't remember many highly drafted QB's who came in, made a mediocre receiving corp (and offense, urgo team better) immediately. Keep on the current path. Draft solid football players and make the team better. I don't want a 26 million dollar a year QB. Too many cap eggs in one basket. How many times has Peyton won a SB? Marino? Favre? I'll take the decent guy and a great team everyday.

Peyton and Favre each won a Super Bowl. The Rams in their history have one Super Bowl win. Favre led his teams to 186 wins in his career. Peyton led his teams to 186 wins in his career.

The Rams have 142 wins in their 21 years in St. Louis.

Yep, give me a Peyton or a Favre.

 

[Akrasian]

Find me one trade where a team gave up more than Washington did to move up in the draft. I'll wait.

There aren't those trades - because if there is a highly desirable player at the top of the draft the team doesn't trade down to #18, but instead wants a far better pick as the centerpiece of the package, and finds a team with a much better pick to trade with. Which is why it's safe to say that the Rams are not going to trade up to #1 to get Goff, as I've been arguing.

The #1 pick is almost never traded. But you're assuming our only option is to trade up to #1.

Yes, because you're assuming that Goff is this epic, can't miss prospect. I'm saying that if that is the case, then the Browns would take him at #2. It's fantasy to think otherwise, that a team that has been trying to get a top QB for years is going to miss something like that. Heck, they don't have to value him as highly as you do to still want to take him at #2. Oh, and it's fantasy to think that they will want to stick with Manziel, when there are better options in their lap.

The 49ers are competition. But with all of their holes, they can't afford to make the same trade we can.

They won't need to. Their #1 is considered much more valuable (likely #5) than the Rams (likely #18). They could trade up to the third pick, for instance, by throwing in their second rounder, if the pick is available in trade that is. Their first rounder this year and next year might be enough to move up to #1 if they want. Teams generally greatly prefer getting high picks than ones in the second half of the first.

 

[jrry32]

Really?!?! In the last 2 drafts the Rams have selected the 'BPA' with AD99 and TG30. It could be argued that neither one of them were a 'need' at the time they were selected.

Go back to those drafts and tell me who was available at the time those 2 were selected and who you would take instead.(?)

BPA be damned...indeed.

I didn't see anything about regretting taking Donald and Gurley. I saw him saying we need a QB. BPA be damned. And he's right. BPA be damned. Get this team a QB.

Despite having Donald and Gurley, where will the Rams be when the playoffs start?

 

[jrry32]

There aren't those trades - because if there is a highly desirable player at the top of the draft the team doesn't trade down to #18, but instead wants a far better pick as the centerpiece of the package, and finds a team with a much better pick to trade with. Which is why it's safe to say that the Rams are not going to trade up to #1 to get Goff, as I've been arguing.

Only if they can. You make the assumption that another team can make a more competitive offer. What team is going to do it? If I'm the Titans and the Rams offer me #18, their 2017 1st, their 2018 1st, and the Eagles 2nd against the 49ers offering #5 and their 2nd...it's a no brainer.

Your argument essentially boils down to, "it hasn't happened so it can't." Yea, that's not a safe assumption. It all depends on how Tennessee sees this draft.(if they do end up picking #1)

Yes, because you're assuming that Goff is this epic, can't miss prospect. I'm saying that if that is the case, then the Browns would take him at #2. It's fantasy to think otherwise, that a team that has been trying to get a top QB for years is going to miss something like that. Heck, they don't have to value him as highly as you do to still want to take him at #2. Oh, and it's fantasy to think that they will want to stick with Manziel, when there are better options in their lap.

No, I'm not. Give it a rest. I've already explained this multiple times to you. You continue to ignore it. I think Goff will be a great NFL QB. I am telling you what I want the Rams to do. I do not pretend to talk for 32 NFL teams. They all evaluate players differently.

You're making assumptions. I am not. I am only giving my opinion.

Frankly, you have no idea what the Browns will do. Neither do I. We don't even know if they will have the same coach/GM next year. The Browns could choose to stick with Manziel. Or they could choose not to. But even if they choose not to, it doesn't necessarily mean they take Goff. They may not like Goff as much as I do.

 

[PhillyRam]

This reminds me of Eagle fans thinking the Eagles had to trade up for Marriota, never taking into consideration that the Titans may not want to trade or any of the other 18 teams picking higher than the Eagles had a better shot of making a trade if a trade was even available.

 

[PhillyRam]

....and the whole mentality of trading up for a QB at all costs is silly. So if the second coming of Ryan Tanneyhill is the best QB that is available via a trade up, you still must trade up and give up multiple high picks?

From what I can see this draft has a lot of QBs in that 3rd- 5th round area that are in the same ball park as some of these top guys. If you want another young arm, then burn another 3rd for the kid from Indiana or someone else along those lines. I would not force a big trade for a marginally better prospect.

 

[jrry32]

....and the whole mentality of trading up for a QB at all costs is silly. So if the second coming of Ryan Tanneyhill is the best QB that is available via a trade up, you still must trade up and give up multiple high picks?

Nope.

From what I can see this draft has a lot of QBs in that 3rd- 5th round area that are in the same ball park as some of these top guys. If you want another young arm, then burn another 3rd for the kid from Indiana or someone else along those lines. I would not force a big trade for a marginally better prospect.

None of this is even remotely accurate. That kid from Indiana (Sudfeld) isn't in the same class as the top prospects in this class. Which is why he's not getting first round hype.

 

[jrry32]

This reminds me of Eagle fans thinking the Eagles had to trade up for Marriota, never taking into consideration that the Titans may not want to trade or any of the other 18 teams picking higher than the Eagles had a better shot of making a trade if a trade was even available.

Rumors are that the Eagles tried to trade up and made a competitive offer but the Titans turned them down...because they didn't have a QB and didn't want to give up Mariota.

 

[nighttrain]

Legit QB and playmaking WR. That's two problems by my count. This team is really close. Many may disagree with me but that's okay.

you nailed it, freak the media

train

 

[PhillyRam]

Nope.



None of this is even remotely accurate. That kid from Indiana (Sudfeld) isn't in the same class as the top prospects in this class. Which is why he's not getting first round hype.

And then if these top two kids are so great, why would QB needy teams pass them up and trade down or why would the Titans trade all the way down to 18?

I mean you can't say how great they are, then realistically think they can be had by trading up 17 or more spots. Those are two incompatable lines of thinking.

 

[PhillyRam]

To me it comes down to whether you want to project a kid like Wentz and take him at 18 or a few spots higher or lower, or take a kid later, or better yet, bring in a vet and continue to develop Mannion.

Otherwise Goff and Lynch are likley not attainable, and Cook is probably not a of a lot better if a prospect than Wentz and Hackenburg.

 

[jrry32]

And then if these top two kids are so great, why would QB needy teams pass them up and trade down or why would the Titans trade all the way down to 18?

I mean you can't say how great they are, then realistically think they can be had by trading up 17 or more spots. Those are two incompatable lines of thinking.

There are only two QB needy teams in the top 10 picks. And Cleveland, one of the two, could choose to stick with their first round QB for another year.

Why would the Titans trade down? They don't need a QB. You offer them enough value and they'll take it. They have a team that needs a lot of talent...kind of like the Rams after 2011.

They aren't incompatible lines of thinking. This isn't your normal year. A number of the teams picking at the top of the draft have talented young QBs or veteran franchise QBs. It offers a rare opportunity to trade up.

Like I said, though, our only likely chance at Goff is if the Browns choose to pass on him.

 

[jrry32]

To me it comes down to whether you want to project a kid like Wentz and take him at 18 or a few spots higher or lower, or take a kid later, or better yet, bring in a vet and continue to develop Mannion.

Otherwise Goff and Lynch are likley not attainable, and Cook is probably not a of a lot better if a prospect than Wentz and Hackenburg.

LOL

I saw the original name before the edit. "Hindenburg"

That's a good one. Because Hackenberg probably will go down in flames too.

Cook is a MUCH MUCH MUCH better prospect than Sackenberg. Cook is more pro ready than Wentz which is why he makes more sense for us.

 

[Merlin]

Cook is a MUCH MUCH MUCH better prospect than Sackenberg. Cook is more pro ready than Wentz which is why he makes more sense for us.

Cook is definitely a nice fit for a Fisher team. Lot of similarities with D'Antonio and Fisher, he wouldn't be expected to sling it all over the joint but to keep doing what he's done in college: take care of the ball, hand it off and put up some timely passes.

Prob is that I wouldn't feel confident he'll make it to 18 or wherever the Rams draft. They'll probably need to trade up for him as well to avoid missing out, IF he's the guy they target.

 

[Akrasian]

There are only two QB needy teams in the top 10 picks. And Cleveland, one of the two, could choose to stick with their first round QB for another year.

Why would the Titans trade down? They don't need a QB. You offer them enough value and they'll take it. They have a team that needs a lot of talent...kind of like the Rams after 2011.

They aren't incompatible lines of thinking. This isn't your normal year. A number of the teams picking at the top of the draft have talented young QBs or veteran franchise QBs. It offers a rare opportunity to trade up.

Like I said, though, our only likely chance at Goff is if the Browns choose to pass on him.

Well, the Chargers as recently as last season were looking to be without Rivers - who is 34 anyway. They may want to draft a replacement when they have a chance. Keep in mind that they drafted Rivers while still having Brees, so they have a history of drafting a replacement before absolutely necessary.

The Cowboys are widely reported to be looking to groom an eventual replacement for Romo. And Jerry Jones is definitely the sort to want to make a splash by drafting a top QB.

There are several other teams who might take a QB, if a good prospect falls to them, including the Giants, who may not wish to pay an aging Eli Manning beaucoup dollars. Especially since they may figure a year or two of grooming for a draft pick.

I would be utterly shocked if Cleveland didn't take a QB, incidentally. Manziel has been mediocre, and they are displeased about him repeatedly lying about his drinking, and his work ethic. They can always get something back for him from the Cowboys, if the Boys don't draft a QB.

 

[jrry32]

Well, the Chargers as recently as last season were looking to be without Rivers - who is 34 anyway. They may want to draft a replacement when they have a chance. Keep in mind that they drafted Rivers while still having Brees, so they have a history of drafting a replacement before absolutely necessary.

Because Rivers reportedly was refusing to re-sign with them if they moved to LA. He signed an extension.

The Cowboys are widely reported to be looking to groom an eventual replacement for Romo. And Jerry Jones is definitely the sort to want to make a splash by drafting a top QB.

I'll believe it when I see it. Not buying it.

There are several other teams who might take a QB, if a good prospect falls to them, including the Giants, who may not wish to pay an aging Eli Manning beaucoup dollars. Especially since they may figure a year or two of grooming for a draft pick.

Not buying it. Giants are locked into Eli's contract either ways. They have no out for a couple of years.

I would be utterly shocked if Cleveland didn't take a QB, incidentally. Manziel has been mediocre, and they are displeased about him repeatedly lying about his drinking, and his work ethic. They can always get something back for him from the Cowboys, if the Boys don't draft a QB.

I would be too. But a new coach may opt to work with him...or they may not like Goff.