NFL and gambling

[Kupped]

Considering the NFL made the argument in court that they are NOT, in fact, a sport (which has specific LEGAL requirements esp as it affects their anti-trust exemptions which allow things like the draft that without them would be illegal restraint of trade), what's the argument?

The NFL doesn't consider itself a sport, but "entertainment".

In baseball, a ticket holder has a right to a "fair contest"... again, that term has legal significance.

In football, a ticket holder solely has the right to view the entertainment and the NFL has argued that BECAUSE it's entertainment, they are under no obligation to provide or ensure a "fair contest".

Now, the embrace of gambling by fans is because enough fans either don't believe or don't want to believe what the NFL is outright telling them... that the outcomes of certain games are "steered".

I've been clear that I don't think every game is scripted like the WWE, but I do think that as the season goes on, the NFL steers narratives so that they can hype the playoffs and Super Bowl up.

Once fans realize that especially as the season goes on that the NFL is steering outcomes, we'll see a different tack.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the NFL complete flips re: their embrace of gambling and that will "coincide" with their embrace of a host of various technologies that will make each game much more uniform.

Unfortunately, I don't think it'll happen until someone with reach does an analysis which is ultimately irrefutable... the data is out there now, but someone will do a really deep dive and will show that beyond a shadow of a doubt there's been steering of outcomes. The NFL will lose fans and then THAT'S when we'll see the flip on gambling and the bevy of technologies which ensure games are called uniformly.

My ticket has nothing to do with a bet or gambling markets.

So, any “steering” would create huge issues with any gambling partnerships they take part in as those are regulated.

 

[Kupped]

I couldn't disagree more.

In every contest in 2021, we use technology to ensure we get the outcome right... and when there are people calling it, there is something like instant replay or some technology as a backstop.

The NFL is woefully behind in this regard.

and to be clear, there is NOTHING charming nor nostalgic about humans getting shit wrong. Nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

There are plenty of calls that cannot be reviewed.

Sorry.

 

[Kupped]

The latest estimate is that yes, globally, in excess of $100B is bet on the Super Bowl.

It's insane how much is bet on that one game.

Link it.

How Much Money Will Be Bet On The Super Bowl in 2024?

The answer to how much money will be bet on the Super Bowl this year. Legal sports betting is expecting record online handle in 2024.

www.thelines.com

 

[Mackeyser]

Yeah, as u probably know IMHO organized cheating at a high level seems unlikely because a. difficult to execute plan and b. downside risk of getting caught is immense.

Who in the NFL would have the desire to pay refs? If it's owners, which ones? Which owners would pay off refs to help their own team lose?

The NFL is the Golden Goose as it is. Why risk bringing down a proven moneymaker on the off chance that a stray call here or there "might" tip the balance of a close game?

I could see the Mafia targeting certain refs. But an "inside job" involving NFL Execs seems entirely different. Much harder to coordinate and keep secret.

Just my 2 cents

As someone who's designed workflows, the workflow for such an enterprise is far simpler than you'd think.

Far simpler. It's compact, contained and very difficult to prove.

Now, if I can do this as a thought experiment in less than 30 mins, you can rest assured, they've put more safeguards in place to ensure that who one believes any whistleblowers.

It's not as hard as y'all are thinking.

 

[Kupped]

As someone who's designed workflows, the workflow for such an enterprise is far simpler than you'd think.

Far simpler. It's compact, contained and very difficult to prove.

Now, if I can do this as a thought experiment in less than 30 mins, you can rest assured, they've put more safeguards in place to ensure that who one believes any whistleblowers.

It's not as hard as y'all are thinking.

Oh.

 

[Merlin]

I need to make one of those for when I mow my lawn. Neighbors will love it.

 

[Mackeyser]

Link it.

How Much Money Will Be Bet On The Super Bowl in 2024?

The answer to how much money will be bet on the Super Bowl this year. Legal sports betting is expecting record online handle in 2024.

www.thelines.com

I said globally. It's FAR less in the US, but the whales from Asia, especially, are known to make some really big bets and many of them are special bets which don't affect the lines.

Doesn't really matter tho.

When given the chance in court to affirm that the NFL is a sport, they specifically chose to move away from that.

And there was no damage from that. Why would the NFL worry about people thinking the NFL is fixed? The WWE is as popular as ever and the NFL isn't scripted, just steered with many possible outcomes so that they only have to apply gentle touches and with all the "human element", it can be written off as "this crew just calls ticky tack calls" versus a "let them play" crew.

I don't really care, I'm irrationally attached to the Rams as a fan and continue to root for them. I'm just not under any illusion that the NFL is an unadulterated contest solely determined by skill, talent, scheme and execution.

Oh that it were...

 

[Merlin]

I lost all faith in the NFL with the '01 Super Bowl loss where they didn't call our receivers getting mugged for 60 minutes. Not to mention burning the tapes of how New England cheated. That alone shows how fucking crooked it is tbh.

But in '01 they wanted the Patriots to win because of 9-11. Look at the BS that happened for them that year even against the Raiders in the playoffs.

 

[LouisvilleRam]

 

[Mackeyser]

My ticket has nothing to do with a bet or gambling markets.

So, any “steering” would create huge issues with any gambling partnerships they take part in as those are regulated.

That's incorrect.

Part of WHY the NFL had to do that in court was to make the gambling NOT illegal.

If the NFL were a sport and there were ANY instances of steering, that would create significant issues.

Well, there's still gambling on WWE matches...

Thus if you make a wager and let's say someone brings up unequivocal proof that the game outcome was steered.

The worst that would happen is that the book would simply cancel the bets and return the money. That's it...

Your incredulity doesn't mean it's not happening.

Edit: the court case came first, but the NFL quickly realized that by making that argument in court, they could embrace gambling and put Las Vegas in play as a city.

But yeah... it's amazing how quickly the NFL used to punish players for even going to Vegas during the season, but after that argument in court, they not only embraced gambling, but put a team in the gambling capital of the US...

 

[XXXIVwin]

Considering the NFL made the argument in court that they are NOT, in fact, a sport (which has specific LEGAL requirements esp as it affects their anti-trust exemptions which allow things like the draft that without them would be illegal restraint of trade), what's the argument?

The NFL doesn't consider itself a sport, but "entertainment".

In baseball, a ticket holder has a right to a "fair contest"... again, that term has legal significance.

In football, a ticket holder solely has the right to view the entertainment and the NFL has argued that BECAUSE it's entertainment, they are under no obligation to provide or ensure a "fair contest".

Now, the embrace of gambling by fans is because enough fans either don't believe or don't want to believe what the NFL is outright telling them... that the outcomes of certain games are "steered".

I've been clear that I don't think every game is scripted like the WWE, but I do think that as the season goes on, the NFL steers narratives so that they can hype the playoffs and Super Bowl up.

Once fans realize that especially as the season goes on that the NFL is steering outcomes, we'll see a different tack.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the NFL complete flips re: their embrace of gambling and that will "coincide" with their embrace of a host of various technologies that will make each game much more uniform.

Unfortunately, I don't think it'll happen until someone with reach does an analysis which is ultimately irrefutable... the data is out there now, but someone will do a really deep dive and will show that beyond a shadow of a doubt there's been steering of outcomes. The NFL will lose fans and then THAT'S when we'll see the flip on gambling and the bevy of technologies which ensure games are called uniformly.

I'll concede the point about entertainment.

But the notion of "NFL steering games" is hard to take seriously without a shred of detail regarding anything even hypothetically plausible about "the mechanics" of how that would be done.

How many people are in on it? Who pays whom? And a thousand other questions. It's not enough to have a motive-- there has to be a remotely plausible means to carry it out.

 

[Kupped]

That's incorrect.

Part of WHY the NFL had to do that in court was to make the gambling NOT illegal.

If the NFL were a sport and there were ANY instances of steering, that would create significant issues.

Well, there's still gambling on WWE matches...

Thus if you make a wager and let's say someone brings up unequivocal proof that the game outcome was steered.

The worst that would happen is that the book would simply cancel the bets and return the money. That's it...

Your incredulity doesn't mean it's not happening.

Edit: the court case came first, but the NFL quickly realized that by making that argument in court, they could embrace gambling and put Las Vegas in play as a city.

But yeah... it's amazing how quickly the NFL used to punish players for even going to Vegas during the season, but after that argument in court, they not only embraced gambling, but put a team in the gambling capital of the US...

Doesn’t mean it does.

Fun exercise… explain the Rams/Saints game for NFC title in this context.

Because… OBVIOUSLY.. the Rams would be the beneficiary of any steering, based on league interests.

And then the subsequent Super Bowl.

 

[XXXIVwin]

As someone who's designed workflows, the workflow for such an enterprise is far simpler than you'd think.

Far simpler. It's compact, contained and very difficult to prove.

Now, if I can do this as a thought experiment in less than 30 mins, you can rest assured, they've put more safeguards in place to ensure that who one believes any whistleblowers.

It's not as hard as y'all are thinking.

Now we're getting somewhere!

Again, if I could just hear the broad outlines of such a "workflow", I'd be intrigued.

Again, who pays off whom? Simple question.

EDIT: I'll lay off hassling ya on this Mack, since you're one of my favorite posters and ya got plenty of folks to tussle with on this!

 

[dieterbrock]

I called in October of 2001 that the Pats were gonna win the Super Bowl even as they were a very inconsistent team.

The Super Bowls since SB 36 have all been "steered".

The first half of the last SB? With KC and TB? Yeah... when Reid's son got in that DUI accident that killed the mom and the little girl was still fighting for her life? There was ZERO chance the NFL was gonna allow KC to celebrate while that little girl was like I said fighting for her life. And so we saw KC be flagged for showing up, for hiking the ball, for breathing on the field... if there was a way to throw a flag, they did.

I think the plan was to have a real shoot out, fun, high scoring game where Brady and TB still win, but with Reid's son having that DUI accident with fatalities and severe injuries, the narrative changed to what looked like on the surface a dominating win and more fellatio for Brady...gross.

Heck, you can steer an outcome just with holding calls, alone. Simply call holding on any big offensive play or big return.

So the blatant cheating by the NFL predates the gambling by quite a bit... more than a decade.

I lost many friends and work associates in 9-11 and am repulsed by the notion that the “league” thought to having Patriots win a championship.
The whole line of thinking is so juvenile. Surely nobody in the NYC metro area were feeling that an NFL team represented patriotism. You know, where 3,000 folks perished on that day and afterwords.
I get it that conspiracy theories are fun for some, but they are extremely insulting to those affected.

 

[XXXIVwin]

View attachment 50218

Yeah, the Tim Donaghy scandal bolsters my point, IMHO.

The notion of one single corrupt ref (with an admitted gambling addiction who bet on his own games)... that is entirely plausible and makes sense.

But an entire fleet of corrupt refs? Who are in cahoots with the owners to steer dozens of games over decades? And it's all super duper secret and never even a shred of evidence?

 

[Mackeyser]

Something super basic.

the only folks who'd have to be involved are those who call holding... the crew chief is typically the Ref...ump... I can never keep those straight...

Moreover, it doesn't have to be as blatant as "hey Ref, we're fixing this game"

All it needs to be is some really basic memo sent to the crew chief "as per the League outlines and a review of prior games, the NFL wants to emphasize that holding be called even if it happens away from the ball" or conversely, "as per the League outlines and a review of prior games, the NFL wants to ensure the flow of the game and emphasize those calls near the ball or that specifically affect the outcome of the play."

Pretty innocuous, but it sends the message.

Doesn't require all the refs to know, doesn't require some grand scheme... just a few people who know and communicating through open channels. Innocuous language can have secondary meanings that have been established in advance.

Doesn't require a "grand conspiracy"

Doesn't require a ton of people in the know

Doesn't require elaborate schema or spy level codes or secret communications

 

[Mackeyser]

I lost many friends and work associates in 9-11 and am repulsed by the notion that the “league” thought to having Patriots win a championship.
The whole line of thinking is so juvenile. Surely nobody in the NYC metro area were feeling that an NFL team represented patriotism. You know, where 3,000 folks perished on that day and afterwords.
I get it that conspiracy theories are fun for some, but they are extremely insulting to those affected.

I found it disgusting at the time and spoke out about it that it diminished the game and worse, used the real patriotism that people felt as a fucked up marketing tool.

Yes, it's insulting.

The insult came from the NFL, tho.

 

[Kupped]

Something super basic.

the only folks who'd have to be involved are those who call holding... the crew chief is typically the Ref...ump... I can never keep those straight...

Moreover, it doesn't have to be as blatant as "hey Ref, we're fixing this game"

All it needs to be is some really basic memo sent to the crew chief "as per the League outlines and a review of prior games, the NFL wants to emphasize that holding be called even if it happens away from the ball" or conversely, "as per the League outlines and a review of prior games, the NFL wants to ensure the flow of the game and emphasize those calls near the ball or that specifically affect the outcome of the play."

Pretty innocuous, but it sends the message.

Doesn't require all the refs to know, doesn't require some grand scheme... just a few people who know and communicating through open channels. Innocuous language can have secondary meanings that have been established in advance.

Doesn't require a "grand conspiracy"

Doesn't require a ton of people in the know

Doesn't require elaborate schema or spy level codes or secret communications

Sure it does…

Because it requires a decision making process up top.

Are you suggesting that Goodell could unilaterally make decisions like this without it being brought to light?

 

[Kupped]

I found it disgusting at the time and spoke out about it that it diminished the game and worse, used the real patriotism that people felt as a fucked up marketing tool.

Yes, it's insulting.

The insult came from the NFL, tho.

Yeah… obviously it was fixed.

Not like BB and Brady turned out to be the two GOATs or something.

 

[blackbart]

Yeah… obviously it was fixed.

Not like BB and Brady turned out to be the two GOATs or something.

Not without a whole lot of calls going their way, investigations finding they were indeed cheating and no consequences, or calls not being made like mugging receivers the entire game because they knew the calls would not be made.