GDT: Rams at Packers 4:30pm ET

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CGI_Ram

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Game Day Thread

The GDT is a live thread tradition here at ROD.

While we all get fired up watching the game, please remember our core principles;we always show respect for our team and each other.

Despite the emotional highs and lows watching a game, we will moderate this thread with that in mind, however please refrain from name calling. This applies to players, the Rams organization, and others.

This is the core rule of the GDT. Moderators are tasked to issue thread bans, at a minimum, to maintain this standard.

This is our team. Win or lose. Good days and bad.

A more loosely moderated atmosphere can be found in the chat room.

Go Rams!

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ROD Chat Room;

Game Day Room
 

CGI_Ram

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NFL Divisional Round schedule – Saturday, January 16
GameTime (EST)TV
Rams @ Packers4:35 PMFOX
Ravens @ Bills8:15 PMNBC

NFL Divisional Round schedule – Sunday, January 17
GameTime (EST)TV
Browns @ Chiefs3:05 PMCBS
Buccaneers @ Saints6:40 PMFOX

.
 

CGI_Ram

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Rams head to Green Bay with NFC Champ berth at stake

Does defense really win championships?

Here comes the latest installment of putting that maxim to the test.

According to ESPN Stats and Info, this is the fifth matchup between the best scoring offense and the top scoring defense in the last 20 postseasons. The defense won three of the prior four meetings.

Alright, that bodes well for the Rams.

But according to NFL Research, this is the fourth playoff game in the last 50 seasons between the individual passing touchdown leader and the team that allowed the fewest passing touchdowns outright. The quarterback's team has won all three of the prior games… and gone on to win the Super Bowl that postseason, too.

That would tend to favor presumptive MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Don't Pack it In

So of the three teams that have defeated the Packers this season, how did they pull it off?

Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Indianapolis all rushed for at least 140 yards in the game and won the turnover battle.

In a way, those contests were less pronounced versions of what we saw from San Francisco in last year's NFC Championship game.

The Giving Tree

Another branch on the same coaching tree, Kyle Shanahan took it to Matt LaFleur and company last January, to the tune of 42 handoffs for 285 yards rushing and 37 points. Comparatively, Jimmy Garoppolo attempted just eight passes and completed six for San Francisco.

Would Sean McVay take it to that extreme on the Frozen Tundra?

Secondary to None

You can count on one thumb the reason he may want to, but we'll get to the Rams quarterback situation in a moment.

First, credit to the Packers, who may have the best secondary outside of Los Angeles.

Jaire Alexander was named second team All-Pro after leading the team with 13 passes defensed. Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos form one of the league's great safety tandems. Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan complete the picture.

And much like the Rams, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine loves to leverage those defensive backs to his advantage, prioritizing the passing game, and leading the league in dime coverage usage.

Weather Report

Okay, to the issue we've all been wrangling with since the Saints beat the Bears, assigning L.A. to Green Bay.

It's going to be cold on Saturday; perhaps you've heard. Far from an Ice Bowl, but chilly. The coldest kickoff for the Rams since that fateful night in Chicago in 2018.

Even with a healthy throwing hand, Jared Goff has not fared well in two career games below freezing, completing just 47 percent of his throws without a touchdown, five interceptions, and eight sacks.

Conversely, Rodgers missed a career in cold storage (and game show host), apparently. According to The Athletic, he's undefeated in his last 10 thermometer games, with 26 scoring tosses against just one interception when the mercury dips below 32 degrees.

21 And Over

So let's assume for the moment that the Rams defense can and will do its part, as it has just about every week.

Rodgers has never lost a playoff game in which his defense held opponents to 21 or fewer points. He's 7-0.

That would indicate that the Rams offense has to find at least three touchdowns at Lambeau, unless the defense can continue its remarkable run of scoring.

Just for Kicks

How prolific has this Green Bay offense been?

They've scored touchdowns on nearly 40 percent of their drives, the highest rate since the undefeated 2007 New England Patriots. No team cashed in red zone opportunities at a higher clip than the Packers.

Consider that placekicker Mason Crosby, who became the first in franchise history to go an entire season without a missed field goal, only attempted 16 in 2020.

Matt Gay had the exact same number of field goal attempts in seven regular season games in Horns!

Punting for the Win

And while we're on the kicking game, let's highlight what might be the soft underbelly of the Packers: punting.

They ranked 31st in the NFL in yards per punt return, 30th in net punt average, allowed a league-high 17 yards per punt return, including punt return touchdowns by the Jaguars and Eagles. Oh, and they also had a punt blocked.

I'm not even going to mention the punter's name, because this isn't meant to call him out. Merely to point out that there's an opportunity here the Rams must capitalize on.

They run into a peer in the basement of the special teams rankings. With some momentum coming off one of their better outings on teams in the Wild Card win, can they carry that forward to Saturday?

If Johnny Hekker can flip fields, Gay continues to stripe kicks, and L.A. steals yardage in return and coverage, perhaps this won't feel like such an uphill climb to the NFC Championship.

I'll Be Back (From a Rib Injury)

But when push comes to shove, it's up to the Rams best players, including the Terminator, Aaron Donald.

Instead of Sarah Connor, this Los Angeles-based cyborg assassin is after Aaron Rodgers.

Our nominee for Defensive Player of the Year against the presumptive MVP and a Packers offensive line that boasts the league's best pass block win rate and allowed zero or one sack in a league-best 13 games this season.

Thankfully, Donald's pain can be controlled — you just disconnect it.

20 Degrees

Davante Adams is the first player in NFL history to register 100 receptions and 18 receiving touchdowns in a season.

He played 14 games.

His 18 scores were two shy of the Rams team total on offense; one more than the Rams defense allowed all season.

Adams has been aligning in the slot more than ever, according to NextGen Stats, and fortunately Jalen Ramsey is that supreme talent who can cover from any spot on the field.

Can Ramsey freeze Adams out, like he has D.K. Metcalf… and DeAndre Hopkins… and Mike Evans… and Allen Robinson?

Blind Sided

Adams and Ramsey are deserving first team All-Pros. And so is Green Bay left tackle David Bakhtiari, who unfortunately suffered a season-ending ACL injury while practicing on the final day of the calendar year.

According to ESPN, Bakhtiari was one of three offensive tackles to finish the regular season top-10 in both pass block win rate and run block win rate.

The others?

Mike Remmers of Kansas City. And our very own Andrew Whitworth.

I encourage you to listen to Big Whit's podcast interview with Steve Wyche and Jim Trotter of the NFL Network. It'll lift your spirits and confidence level going into Saturday knowing that he's in your team's huddle.

Let's face it: the Rams are underdogs this weekend.

Banged up, on the road, the lowest remaining seed, in harsh and unfamiliar conditions, against a first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback who's having a career season.

There's really only one path to the NFC Championship for Los Angeles. To want it more.

"Playoff football, it's really about imposing your will," Whitworth said. "This time of year, it's really about that grit, that determination to win."
 

CGI_Ram

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Tale of the tape: Rams vs. Packers

Earning a victory over Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in the playoffs is an uphill climb, but not impossible.

Rodgers is 10-8 in the postseason over his 16-year, NFL career. He’s 4-2 at Lambeau Field, losing 37-20 to the New York Giants after the 2011 season and 23-20 to the San Francisco 49ers after the 2013 season.

Rodgers was sacked a combined eight times in those losses, so a key for the Rams will be generating consistent pressure on the Cal product.

The game pits Green Bay’s No. 1 scoring offense (31.8 points per game) against L.A.’s No. 1 scoring defense (allowing 18.5 points a contest).

“It's a great matchup,” Rams head coach Sean McVay said. “Our defense has done a great job, but I have tremendous respect for these coaches, these players and what they've done for the Packers.

“This is what you love. These are the type of matchups and opportunities that as a competitor, you can't wait for. We have to take it a day at a time and have a great week of prep.”

The Rams hold a 46-45-2 (including postseason) edge all-time over Green Bay. The two teams last met in Los Angeles, a 29-27 victory for the Rams on Oct. 28, 2018.

The last time the Rams played in Green Bay was nine years ago when the franchise was still in St. Louis, a 30-20 victory for the Packers on Oct. 21, 2012.

The last time these two teams faced each other in the postseason was nearly 20 years ago, a 45-17 win for the Rams in St. Louis on Jan. 20, 2002.

As Greg Beacham from the Associated Press points out, the Packers and Rams never met in the playoffs at Lambeau Field. However, they played at Milwaukee County Stadium on Dec. 23, 1967. Led by quarterback Bart Starr and head coach Vince Lombardi, the Packers defeated the Rams, headed by QB Roman Gabriel and the Fearsome Foursome, 28-7.

Green Bay won the Ice Bowl and the 1967 title eight days later.

The Rams are 7-point underdogs.

The weather will be mostly cloudy, with temperatures around 25 degrees at game time. That’s not bad weather for Green Bay at this time of year. The Packers will open the doors for 6,000 fans to attend.

Ron Tolbert's crew will officiate the game.

2020 RECORD
Rams: 10-6
Packers: 13-3
Comment: The Packers have finished with back-to-back, 13-3 seasons under head coach Matt LaFleur.

Points Per Game
Rams: 23.3 (22)
Packers: 31.8 (1)
Comment: The Packers won their last six games, averaging 33.5 points a game.

Total offense
Rams: 377.0 yards per game (11)
Packers: 389.0 yards per game (5)
Comment: Packers 80 percent red zone efficiency is tops in the league.

Rush offense
Rams: 126.1 yards per game (10)
Packers: 132.4 yards per game (8)
Comment: With 1,104 rushing yards, Aaron Jones finished No. 4 in the NFL.

Pass offense
Rams: 250.9 yards per game (13)
Packers: 256.6 passing yards per game (9)
Comment: Packers averaging 7.8 yards per passing play, No. 2 in the league.

Time of possession
Rams: 32:01 (2)
Packers: 32:29 (1)
Comment: 36-year-old Kicker Mason Crosby a perfect 16-of-16 during the regular season for first time in his NFL career.

Opponents points per game
Rams: 18.5 (1)
Packers: 23.1 (13)
Comment: Packers allowing a league-worst 17.1 punt return yards per game, including two punt returns for TDs.

Total defense
Rams: 281.9 yards per game (1)
Packers: 334.0 yards per game (9)
Comment: Packers 66.7 red zone efficiency tied for No. 10 in the NFL.

Rush Defense
Rams: 91.3 yards per game (3)
Packers: 112.8 yards per game (T13)
Comment: Safety Adrian Amos lead the Packers in tackles with 86.

Pass Defense
Rams: 190.7 yards per game (1)
Packers: 221.2 yards per game (7)
Comment: Packers allowing 6.6 yards per pass play, No. 12 in the NFL.

Sacks
Rams: 53/350 yards (2)
Packers: 41/254 yards (T10)
Comment: Za’Darius Smith leads Green Bay in sacks with 12.5.

Penalties
Rams: 71/655 yards (2)
Packers: 84/684yards (T11)
Comment: Smith leads the Packers with nine penalties, including five for defensive offsides.

Interceptions
Rams: 14 (T12)
Packers: 11 (T18)
Comment: Darnell Savage leads Packers with four interceptions.

Turnover differential
Rams: minus-3 (T21)
Packers: plus-7 (7)
Comment: Green bay turned it over just twice in the last six games.
 

Mister Sin

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No turnovers is key. Let our defense win us this game and our offense not lose it. Run Cam down their throats and mix in some PA. No stupid mistakes.

Our guys fought hard to get in this position and they are facing their toughest test so far today. No matter the outcome, I'm gonna be happy that this is my team.
 

Ballhawk

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I find this to be somewhat comforting. Power rankings strength of schedule.
The Rams have played a way stronger schedule than the Packers.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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You can wait for big games like this for years. Seeing it live is so much better than watching it afterwards.

Well, I have to watch it after the game later. My sons travel baseball coach arranged an indoor practice session at the same time as the Rams game. Leave it a baseball guy to make a decision like that.