Covid 19 thread

[dieterbrock]

Fauci lost me with his do as I say, not as I do act at the baseball game

 

[-X-]

 

[Mojo Ram]

I believe and have believed for awhile now, that after the election(no matter the result) that Covid will magically transform into exactly what it really is and cease to be one of the biggest political tools in the history of this country. There will be little to no use for it in terms of leverage anymore from all parties.

Politicians, news media, scientific figureheads, Corporate optics etc. They will all move on. The mover$ and shaker$ will be done with it.

I would expect that the public will finally get some real information from science at that point. Politics was bigger than Covid. It's kind of disgusting but it's better than the alternative i suppose, which would be a virus that truly threatened all of mankind.

 

[SWAdude]

View attachment 40344

Governors SWAdude‘s rules:

Don‘t be stupid....

Have fun.....

Stay away if you are too concerned. No one wants you there if you are.

 

[RamFan503]

At or below 1% positivity for months, with robust testing.

After daily deaths approaching 800 per day during the awful peak, daily deaths went down to the single digits for months.

Recent increase as seen across the country but NY’s numbers are still among the best. To illustrate, I will use your number above.

Yesterday’s were reported as 2,054. That represented a positivity rate of 1.3%.

As mentioned, like the rest of the country, NY has seen a recent increase. There are several hot-zones in Brooklyn and Queens.

As stated, the entire State positivity rate was 1.3% yesterday. Excluding the 5 hot-zones, the rest on NYS was 1.1%.

I saw that and it is pretty logical. More testing would result in more cases and also generally a lower positivity rate.

But here is what troubles me about these numbers. If you have 2,053 positives at a 1.3% positivity rate, how many tests would you have had to administer for that day? DeBlazio wanted to eventually get to 30,000, then 40,000, then 50,000 tests per day. NY is testing at a rate of roughly 160,000 per day and NYC accounts for some 85,000 of those tests.

What comes to mind is a couple of things. Not only does DeBlazio not know how many tests he needs (understandable), but no amount of testing will be enough. The other thing is that if you are at 1.1 to 1.3 for months and your testing has gone from 40,000 to 160,000 in that span, the actual number of positives continues to climb while the rate of the public infection remains the same.

The thing is, that I understand that my numbers don't really mean much. And knowing this, is why I don't put a lot of stock in the stats and data people choose.

Here was an interesting couple things I saw just today while looking at the trends. Do you not find them both interesting and damning when someone touts how effective their policies have been or how effective a methodology has proven to be?

Behind that disclaimer, was this:

"Currently, states may not be distinguishing overall tests administered from the number of individuals who have been tested. This is an important limitation to the data that is available to track testing in the U.S., and states should work to address it.

When states report testing numbers for COVID-19 infection, they should not include serology or antibody tests. Antibody tests are not used to diagnose active COVID-19 infection and they do not provide insights into the number of cases of COVID-19 diagnosed or whether viral testing is sufficient to find infections that are occurring within each state. States that include serology tests within their overall COVID-19 testing numbers are misrepresenting their testing capacity and the extent to which they are working to identify COVID-19 infections within their communities. States that wish to track the number of serology tests being performed should report those numbers separately from viral tests performed to diagnose COVID-19."

 

[thirteen28]

View attachment 40344

Do you have to ask Governor Newsome if you can go potty too?

 

[RamFan503]

Do you have to ask Governor Newsome if you can go potty too?

Please refer to rule #4. I said MAY. Therefore I'm allowing it as long as you do it MY way. You're welcome. ~ Gavin Newsome

 

[-X-]

Do you have to ask Governor Newsome if you can go potty too?

Depends.

You gotta go tinky? Or make a boom boom?

 

[Allen2McVay]

I saw that and it is pretty logical. More testing would result in more cases and also generally a lower positivity rate.

But here is what troubles me about these numbers. If you have 2,053 positives at a 1.3% positivity rate, how many tests would you have had to administer for that day? DeBlazio wanted to eventually get to 30,000, then 40,000, then 50,000 tests per day. NY is testing at a rate of roughly 160,000 per day and NYC accounts for some 85,000 of those tests.

What comes to mind is a couple of things. Not only does DeBlazio not know how many tests he needs (understandable), but no amount of testing will be enough. The other thing is that if you are at 1.1 to 1.3 for months and your testing has gone from 40,000 to 160,000 in that span, the actual number of positives continues to climb while the rate of the public infection remains the same.

The thing is, that I understand that my numbers don't really mean much. And knowing this, is why I don't put a lot of stock in the stats and data people choose.

Here was an interesting couple things I saw just today while looking at the trends. Do you not find them both interesting and damning when someone touts how effective their policies have been or how effective a methodology has proven to be?

View attachment 40343
Behind that disclaimer, was this:

"Currently, states may not be distinguishing overall tests administered from the number of individuals who have been tested. This is an important limitation to the data that is available to track testing in the U.S., and states should work to address it.

When states report testing numbers for COVID-19 infection, they should not include serology or antibody tests. Antibody tests are not used to diagnose active COVID-19 infection and they do not provide insights into the number of cases of COVID-19 diagnosed or whether viral testing is sufficient to find infections that are occurring within each state. States that include serology tests within their overall COVID-19 testing numbers are misrepresenting their testing capacity and the extent to which they are working to identify COVID-19 infections within their communities. States that wish to track the number of serology tests being performed should report those numbers separately from viral tests performed to diagnose COVID-19."

Plenty of good comments but I am mostly relaxing and enjoying football today.

My response to you was an attempt to address your questioning my comment that NYS has been effectively fighting Covid for more than five months since the brutal time in March and April.

Let me try again with the death numbers.

There was a time in March and April when the U.S. was losing between 1,000 and 1,500 per day. NYS represented more than 50% of those daily deaths. NY was losing close to 800 people per day at the peak.

Last week, the U.S. lost about 5,700 people. NYS lost about 100. That’s less than 2%.

The NYS daily deaths have been between 5-20 almost every day for more than five months.

From more than 50% to less than 2% of our Country’s daily deaths.

Low positivity rates and low daily death numbers relative to the total U.S. rate and death for more than five months now. The mitigation efforts have worked very well here since those awful and painful early months.

 

[XXXIVwin]

Fauci lost me with his do as I say, not as I do act at the baseball game

The guy was there with his wife and his best friend. They were seated far away from anyone else. Fauci had just tested negative for Covid the previous day. Fauci was thirsty, so he took off his mask, took a couple sips of water, paused for a few seconds, then put his mask right back on.

I heard he farted once, too.

The man is a monster.

 

[dieterbrock]

Meanwhile, Thanksgiving dinner at the Newsom residence....

 

[dieterbrock]

The guy was there with his wife and his best friend. They were seated far away from anyone else. Fauci had just tested negative for Covid the previous day. Fauci was thirsty, so he took off his mask, took a couple sips of water, paused for a few seconds, then put his mask right back on.

I heard he farted once, too.

The man is a monster.

His wife who was making sure she had her mask on for her selfie and Fauci sure made sure the mask was on while he was on the mound.
It was a pathetic display and defending it is just silly.

 

[XXXIVwin]

I realize we're into politics again, but this is kind of important and relevant to the discussion. However, if we were reduced to being a dick to each other over it, I'd probably lock it again. Give yourself a pat on the back for being able to evoke rationality out of this discussion as opposed to gratuitous mudslinging. I like you, man. And no, we didn't just become best friends.

Per your statement there, here's the rub. Its foundation is the idea that you "bet" millions of people in the U.S. make their decisions based on his words and deeds; and as such, he's the source of the problem with universal mask wearing. I'm here to tell you he's not. Unless you think he's SO charismatic, that he cast a spell on the people of London, Edinburgh, Rome, Belgium, Melbourne, Madrid, and Montreal, to name a few. Those people have actually taken to the streets over mandates. I'll also use your theory against you here (since it has no foundation). *I'd* bet that if POTUS was 100% pro-mask, that leadership on the other side would be against it (as they were in the beginning). I'd even go as far as to say that millions in this Country would be against it just because he was for it. I can't prove that obviously, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. No, m'man. This thing is bigger than he is. Much, much bigger.

Give yourself a pat on the back for being able to evoke rationality out of this discussion as opposed to gratuitous mudslinging. I like you, man. And no, we didn't just become best friends.

Yeah, cheers, man. Kind of amazing that we can talk this well given the difference of opinion.

*I'd* bet that if POTUS was 100% pro-mask, that leadership on the other side would be against it (as they were in the beginning).

Gotta disagree with this. Leadership on "my side" tends to say, "if the scientists say wear the damn mask, then wear the damn mask." There are a zillion other "political" issues to disagree about. Mask wearing isn't about politics and never should have been.

With that, I'm gonna go back to the sidelines and take a break from this thread for a while...

 

[XXXIVwin]

His wife who was making sure she had her mask on for her selfie and Fauci sure made sure the mask was on while he was on the mound.
It was a pathetic display and defending it is just silly.

Yeah, you're right. Fauci wore his mask the entire time he was at the baseball game, but he took it off for a few seconds to take some sips of water. Indefensible. What a pathetic display. Freaking hypocrite.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

The guy was there with his wife and his best friend. They were seated far away from anyone else. Fauci had just tested negative for Covid the previous day. Fauci was thirsty, so he took off his mask, took a couple sips of water, paused for a few seconds, then put his mask right back on.

I heard he farted once, too.

The man is a monster.

I see you’ve checked out but would just like be perfectly clear here

While you are so forgiving allowing Fauci a pass on his utter “call it what you may” flip flop on masks

Some of us sit back and ponder, “you gotta be shitting me, 50 plus years as a disease expert and you flip” What changed in those 30 days that would change your life’s experience, don’t you dare dare dismiss that as a mistake, that’s insulting to any reasonable person

You would accept there is a reason (you’ve repeated so many times) throw your hands up an proclaiming all is forgiven

To which I’d respectfully counter (also repeated so many times) for fux sake, you sir ( again Fauci) are either incredibly incompetent to alter what was believed your first 49.5 years as an expert...

OR

you (Fauci) have become a political stooge

I vote Stooge

Your so called “experts“ facts on this virus chiefly spreading thru air, are completely in the conjecture stage, they may OR may never know the facts. I’ve heard both sides and honestly don’t have a conclusion

call it what you may, this virus has been a godsend for a certain party that has very astutely taking advantage and pretty much weaponized it.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

View attachment 40344

Lol, pretty sure most people who can actually think for themselves are going to ignore this

god dammit, I didn’t even look this up (your probably pulling our tail) but it’s actually believable considering the utter nonsense coming from The Peoples Republic of California

it’s so embarrassing that I still reside here, only have for over 60 years

 

[-X-]

I didn’t even look this up (your probably pulling our tail)

Nope. It's on their website.

 

[-X-]

Gotta disagree with this. Leadership on "my side" tends to say, "if the scientists say wear the damn mask, then wear the damn mask."

I hope scientists don't tell them to jump off a bridge.

Seriously though, these are the same people who are on record calling POTUS's initial reaction and travel bans an overreach. Leaders from Cali and NY are again, on record, telling people to ignore the "hysteria" he was allegedly causing and to go out and mingle with people (Chinatown and movies/parades/restaurants specifically). And why? Because he took the opposite approach. Don't be so certain that they would willingly follow his lead on anything.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

Nope. It's on their website.

well I suppose I shouldn’t be too surprised

thx

 

[1maGoh]

I said UNIVERSAL mask wearing.

Yeah, when you get near 100% compliance near 100% of the time, you can stamp out the virus pretty damn well.

And BTW, all the research over the last few months point to this being transmitted primarily by droplets and aerosols— NOT by fomites (I.e., surfaces).

As I recall you were the guy who said the presentation of the science behind mask-wearing hasn’t been that great. I agree, I wish the CDC had been better about explaining the science behind mask-wearing.

in the meantime, here’s a good video from “the slow-mo guys” to show how much spittle we all eject— AND how effective masks are in absorbing the spittle.

It’s hard for me to imagine how anyone can watch the first 7:30 minutes of the video below and still say “masks don’t help.” Wish I could do a “watch this slo-mo video challenge” or something. If this video can’t convince, then nothing can.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ66wJFD3bs

Dang, I just noticed a typo in my past earlier. Maybe that's what confused you. 200 employees (with somewhere between 40-60% in the store at any given time) interacting with 1500 customers (I previously said employees here too) per day (mostly during the day and mostly packed into a few hours per day is an incredibly risky environment. Like mojo said, the number of human interactions and potential infection points is absolutely gigantic. Someone check my math but, if 1% of the employees interacted with 10% of the customers that's 300 interactions a day for 8 months. The numbers are very likely to be much higher than that. Given the hype I would expect more than 4 infections. They deal with that every single day for 8 months and only 4 of 200 people get infected? I don't recall anyone suggesting that cloth masks would be that effective. I mean hell, at that rate of everyone wore masks we could have ended the whole pandemic in 2-3 weeks. But again, that's not what anyone was saying. We were told they would be somewhat effective and help flatten the curve. We were told would lower the spread somewhat and help keep hospitals from overflowing. But again, at the rate Mojo's store saw, shit would have been fine by April. I know that some people (I originally included much more offensive language in here, but I want you to know I'm holding back) are saying cloth masks, staying 6 feet a part, and isolating would have killed it off in America but that was always a pipe dream. Italy's daily cases got stomped into the dirt (less than 200 per day, which is pretty low all things considered) and they've shit back up above 20k. Most of Europe, as someone else said had seen huge increases in daily cases. Casually observing, their current situations reflects about what states of similar size are in.

If you're saying fomites aren't a problem (and please don't assume you have to explain things like that to me; even if I didn't already know what it was, I'm perfectly capable of looking it up) then what are you suggesting is happening with the water droplets? Either they fall to the ground, and onto objects people can touch which is what makes touching your face a bad idea, or they float around in the air to be breathed in later which would make this airborne.

And finally, I see how you could interpret an earlier post of mine as saying the mask data was presented poorly. Let me clear that up. The problem with what we've been told about "the science" so far, is that there's a large contingent of people who run around screeching "THE SCIENCE! THE SCIENCE! YOU'RE ALL SO STUPID! FOLLOW THE SCIENCE!" and then when contradictory studies come out they pretend like nothing fucking happened and continue screeching about "the science" as if it didn't just fucking change. So anyone who was concerned about the previous science and how it didn't sound right gets shouted down for several months, then suddenly everything is supposed to be cool with no recognition that somebody had fucked up before. The best part about science is that it can change. So please stop acting like every new study (or even just the ones you prefer) are the be all end all of a given topic and no one is allowed to disagree.

To prove my point, at the beginning of this it was all fomites. You wore the mask so your spittle didn't land on things and infect others. That's why we stood 6 feet apart, the typical spit blob doesn't travel more than 6 feet. You wear the mask to reduce how much you spread, you stay 6 feet away so you don't get any directly on someone, you don't touch your face because you probably picked it up in the last thing you touched, and you wash your hands because you probably picked it up on the last thing you touched. Those are fomite-spread disease recommendations. But now you, you personally and "the science", say it's not fomites? And it's not airborne? And it's not direct person to person, requiring touch or fluid transmission right? It's not animals or soil/water or food? How is it spreading then? To be clear, I'm not saying it's a hoax. I'm saying we were told it absolutely was not under any circumstances airborne. They even did a study that said it isn't airborne. But now it's not fomites either. And it might be airborne, but probably not. And it definitely isn't any off the other transmission methods.

I'm not a scientist. Not even a computer scientist. I am literally incapable of fact checking any of these people or their claims when they do studies and put out reports. So I have to trust and use common sense. And even when common sense says they're probably wrong, I defer to their guidance, but with a skeptical attitude. I try not to be a dick when I'm right, and I try to (as much as I remember to) recognize when I was previously wrong.