Covid 19 thread

[RamBall]

The early projections that U.S. deaths could be in the millions, were based on little-to-no mitigation.

Science has been fairly consistent and accurate on this new virus; and has corrected itself when appropriate.

The epidemiologists are the experts, and they are all (pretty much) on the same page.

By not following the science, more people have gotten sick than necessary.

By forcing nursing homes to take in covid patients when there were hospital beds available for them is what caused many people to die needlessly. If all 50 governors would have followed common sense and science the number of deaths would be much lower possibly between 25-30% lower.

 

[XXXIVwin]

Nobody in this thread has ever said they won't do "the right thing". In fact, everyone I've seen has said they wear one.
I don't see what the problem is, or who these "truth deniers" even are.

I agree with you insofar as just about everyone in this thread (only one or two exceptions I can think of) has said they wear masks in crowded places. I think just about everyone on this thread would say, “jamming together thousands of shouting ppl, when the vast majority are not wearing masks, is a bad idea.”

Which is why I experience so much cognitive dissonance re. this strong support for a leader who does the exact opposite of the “right thing.” Does POTUS actively encourage his followers to disregard masks? Of course he does. There have been hundreds of examples of this. AT BEST he has sent out mixed messages. At worst, as he said himself, those who wear masks “signal disapproval of him.” There is significant peer pressure to NOT wear masks at POTUS rallies... this does not seem debatable. Right?

I‘ve used this phrase before, but yes, I find the picture below “mind-boggling.” I see at least 80 faces, and I count only four masks. (Go ahead and zoom in and try searching for masks— it’s like a game of “Where’s Waldo.”)

And by the way, I could post lots and lots of rally photos like this, where the overwhelming majority of attendees are crowded together and shouting without masks. This is by far the rule, it is NOT the exception.

So yeah, the tens of thousands of maskless ppl who attend these rallies are “truth deniers” about the importance of mask wearing. Their actions speak for themselves.

Are these events hugely influential in shaping public opinion, and eroding public support for mask-wearing? That is a separate question, but (again) it seems awfully obvious to me that “many” supporters of POTUS lose faith in mask wearing when seeing scenes like this over and over.

If someone wants to argue that “the virus is gonna do what it’s gonna do regardless of our efforts and masks don’t matter”, that is a coherent position.

But if OTOH one says, “wearing masks in crowded places is indeed important,” shouldn’t we AT LEAST expect our leader to be 100% supportive of this, in both words and deeds?

 

[RamBall]

Glad to here your 'neck of the woods' is doing well. Would not wish what I have witnessed on anyone.

However, there are many Americans being careless, undisciplined and irresponsible when it comes to protecting other people; and that continues to result in too much unnecessary suffering.

Many of the people that believe they are doing the right thing by wearing a mask are just contributing to the spread by touching their mask with their hands that possibly picked up the virus from a surface or if they have covid and dont know it they are spreading the virus to any surface they touch after touching their mask. I wear a mask when required but I dont put it on until I am entering the door and it comes off as soon as I exit. I wash my cloth masks often, especially the ones I wear when working. While at work I wear a new mask at each house I enter or when in the yard and there are other techs that I may encounter. I think people just need to get over the fear and realize covid is not killing healthy people and by slowing the spread we are just keeping it around longer which in turn means it is more likely that those that are not healthy will eventually get it.

 

[XXXIVwin]

I'd like to comment on this. I work for a MAJOR grocery chain in the middle of a MAJOR city. We employ around 200 ppl per store. Ranging in age from 16 to 75+ years old. We interact with about 1,500 customers/day. Since March we have had exactly 4 employees test positive. No hospitalizations, no deaths.

Think about that. I can't even begin to do the math in terms of the sheer amount of people interactions in my store every day for the last 8 months. Yet just 4 positives? And they all got a nice paid vacation at home with the sniffles.

I dunno, but from my POV (and I know some would disagree), the success seen at your store is a testament to the effectiveness of universal mask wearing.

In all the grocery stores in CA I have been to over the last few months (and I have traveled a bit), I have seen almost 100% compliance on masks, from both customers and employees.

BTW, I gotta say, Mojo, your posting style (and moderation of this thread) have been much appreciated. Even when you disagree strongly you do so without EVER getting anywhere near to insults or an attacking tone. All class, much appreciated. Cheers

 

[1maGoh]

I dunno, but from my POV (and I know some would disagree), the success seen at your store is a testament to the effectiveness of universal mask wearing.

In all the grocery stores in CA I have been to over the last few months (and I have traveled a bit), I have seen almost 100% compliance on masks, from both customers and employees.

BTW, I gotta say, Mojo, your posting style (and moderation of this thread) have been much appreciated. Even when you disagree strongly you do so without EVER getting anywhere near to insults or an attacking tone. All class, much appreciated. Cheers

The only problem with saying that's a testament to their effectiveness is that we know they aren't that effective. 200 employees by 1500 employees every day? The number of interactions on a daily basis of a possibly/probably airborne virus plus the environmental risk from the droplets on food packages, pos terminals, etc. For only 4 people in the last 6-7-whatever months isn't a testament to the effectiveness of cloth masks. It's an indictment of what we're being told.

 

[XXXIVwin]

The only problem with saying that's a testament to their effectiveness is that we know they aren't that effective. 200 employees by 1500 employees every day? The number of interactions on a daily basis of a possibly/probably airborne virus plus the environmental risk from the droplets on food packages, pos terminals, etc. For only 4 people in the last 6-7-whatever months isn't a testament to the effectiveness of cloth masks. It's an indictment of what we're being told.

I said UNIVERSAL mask wearing.

Yeah, when you get near 100% compliance near 100% of the time, you can stamp out the virus pretty damn well.

And BTW, all the research over the last few months point to this being transmitted primarily by droplets and aerosols— NOT by fomites (I.e., surfaces).

As I recall you were the guy who said the presentation of the science behind mask-wearing hasn’t been that great. I agree, I wish the CDC had been better about explaining the science behind mask-wearing.

in the meantime, here’s a good video from “the slow-mo guys” to show how much spittle we all eject— AND how effective masks are in absorbing the spittle.

It’s hard for me to imagine how anyone can watch the first 7:30 minutes of the video below and still say “masks don’t help.” Wish I could do a “watch this slo-mo video challenge” or something. If this video can’t convince, then nothing can.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ66wJFD3bs

 

[-X-]

If someone wants to argue that “the virus is gonna do what it’s gonna do regardless of our efforts and masks don’t matter”, that is a coherent position.

But if OTOH one says, “wearing masks in crowded places is indeed important,” shouldn’t we AT LEAST expect our leader to be 100% supportive of this, in both words and deeds?

Only if you think you’re in danger of dying. And if you’re under 60 years old, you have an extremely slim chance of that happening. Anyone who is afraid of it wouldn’t attend those rallies anyway. I probably wouldn’t wear one there either. I wear one when I’m required to. That’s all anyone is getting out of me. And since my State is pretty lenient about that, I’m happy where I am.

See, you’ve read enough of my posts to know that I’m of the opinion that this is WAY overblown. POTUS has nothing to do with how I arrived at that conclusion. And from what I can ascertain from listening to talk radio all day, nobody else is taking their direction from him either. People read. They study data. They form their own opinions.

 

[XXXIVwin]

Only if you think you’re in danger of dying. And if you’re under 60 years old, you have an extremely slim chance of that happening. Anyone who is afraid of it wouldn’t attend those rallies anyway. I probably wouldn’t wear one there either. I wear one when I’m required to. That’s all anyone is getting out of me. And since my State is pretty lenient about that, I’m happy where I am.

See, you’ve read enough of my posts to know that I’m of the opinion that this is WAY overblown. POTUS has nothing to do with how I arrived at that conclusion. And from what I can ascertain from listening to talk radio all day, nobody else is taking their direction from him either. People read. They study data. They form their own opinions.

I dunno quite how to articulate this, but my question about masks isn’t about “what would you choose for yourself as an individual” but “what do you think is the best choice for the group as a whole.”

And yeah, I get that you don’t take your cue from POTUS, you do your own research. But he’s got millions of followers who are hardcore in their support for him, and I bet they listen to his advice pretty damn seriously.

I’d concede that POTUS is a charismatic dude and a compelling speaker. If POTUS truly believed that mask-wearing was good for the USA, I’m sure he could figure out some way of signaling that for his followers in some way that they’d eat it up. He could use sense of humor, or reminders about how mask-wearing is good for business, or all sorts of things.

Imagine if POTUS began every rally by saying something like, “Hey Wisconsin, let me see ‘em, let me see all your beautiful masks! Yeah, we gotta do it, we gotta protect grandma and grandpa. We love our Seniors, don’t we? And we gotta wear masks to keep things OPEN, we gotta keep this economy rolling! The vaccines are just around the corner, we won’t have to wear them much longer!”

I dunno, but if POTUS had gone fully pro-mask this entire time, I think the country would be better off AND I think his odds of re-election would be much higher.

Just my opinion of course. Maybe we can test it out in an alternate universe somewhere...

 

[-X-]

And yeah, I get that you don’t take your cue from POTUS, you do your own research. But he’s got millions of followers who are hardcore in their support for him, and I bet they listen to his advice pretty damn seriously.

I realize we're into politics again, but this is kind of important and relevant to the discussion. However, if we were reduced to being a dick to each other over it, I'd probably lock it again. Give yourself a pat on the back for being able to evoke rationality out of this discussion as opposed to gratuitous mudslinging. I like you, man. And no, we didn't just become best friends.

Per your statement there, here's the rub. Its foundation is the idea that you "bet" millions of people in the U.S. make their decisions based on his words and deeds; and as such, he's the source of the problem with universal mask wearing. I'm here to tell you he's not. Unless you think he's SO charismatic, that he cast a spell on the people of London, Edinburgh, Rome, Belgium, Melbourne, Madrid, and Montreal, to name a few. Those people have actually taken to the streets over mandates. I'll also use your theory against you here (since it has no foundation). *I'd* bet that if POTUS was 100% pro-mask, that leadership on the other side would be against it (as they were in the beginning). I'd even go as far as to say that millions in this Country would be against it just because he was for it. I can't prove that obviously, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. No, m'man. This thing is bigger than he is. Much, much bigger.

 

[OldSchool]

I dunno quite how to articulate this, but my question about masks isn’t about “what would you choose for yourself as an individual” but “what do you think is the best choice for the group as a whole.”

The best for the group as a whole is to protect the vulnerable and at risk population. Isolate and quarantine them and the rest do their best to mitigate and likewise protect the at risk when/if they're around them. We've taken the ideas of quarantine and turned them on their head this go round. And it's failed and hurt society as a whole.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

I said UNIVERSAL mask wearing.

Yeah, when you get near 100% compliance near 100% of the time, you can stamp out the virus pretty damn well.

And BTW, all the research over the last few months point to this being transmitted primarily by droplets and aerosols— NOT by fomites (I.e., surfaces).

As I recall you were the guy who said the presentation of the science behind mask-wearing hasn’t been that great. I agree, I wish the CDC had been better about explaining the science behind mask-wearing.

in the meantime, here’s a good video from “the slow-mo guys” to show how much spittle we all eject— AND how effective masks are in absorbing the spittle.

It’s hard for me to imagine how anyone can watch the first 7:30 minutes of the video below and still say “masks don’t help.” Wish I could do a “watch this slo-mo video challenge” or something. If this video can’t convince, then nothing can.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ66wJFD3bs

I don’t suppose this guy made the same Vid with one sneezing thru a paper mask, lol

And so now (according to you) science has flipped yet again and has determined the spread is primarily from particles mysticaly traveling thru air, not hands to mouth.

uh boy

Whats my newfound favorite term again?

oh yeah, conjecture, save posting Some ridiculous study, we both hopefully are smart enough to understand this may take years of study to remove all conjecture

btw, can someone, anyone, tell me have they figured out if eggs are good for you or detrimental to your health, lol

 

[Allen2McVay]

Hmmm....

This from a report today:

New York reported more than 2,000 new cases of COVID-19 for the second time this week Friday, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Saturday.

At or below 1% positivity for months, with robust testing.

After daily deaths approaching 800 per day during the awful peak, daily deaths went down to the single digits for months.

Recent increase as seen across the country but NY’s numbers are still among the best. To illustrate, I will use your number above.

Yesterday’s were reported as 2,054. That represented a positivity rate of 1.3%.

As mentioned, like the rest of the country, NY has seen a recent increase. There are several hot-zones in Brooklyn and Queens.

As stated, the entire State positivity rate was 1.3% yesterday. Excluding the 5 hot-zones, the rest on NYS was 1.1%.

 

[SWAdude]

By far the highest risk of your Thanksgiving dinner this year is getting to the party alive.

 

[Allen2McVay]

By forcing nursing homes to take in covid patients when there were hospital beds available for them is what caused many people to die needlessly. If all 50 governors would have followed common sense and science the number of deaths would be much lower possibly between 25-30% lower.

No issue with your comment except that it in no way relates to what I had posted.

Yes ... better, common sense decision making at the local levels (states) would have saved many lives. Your Point.

Yes ... simply following the science and listening to the experts regarding simple things like wearing masks, would have also saved many lives. My Point.

 

[XXXIVwin]

I don’t suppose this guy made the same Vid with one sneezing thru a paper mask, lol

And so now (according to you) science has flipped yet again and has determined the spread is primarily from particles mysticaly traveling thru air, not hands to mouth.

uh boy

Whats my newfound favorite term again?

oh yeah, conjecture, save posting Some ridiculous study, we both hopefully are smart enough to understand this may take years of study to remove all conjecture

btw, can someone, anyone, tell me have they figured out if eggs are good for you or detrimental to your health, lol

Aw crap, I far prefer the words and tone from the unedited post you posted three minutes ago....

(But thanks for being willing to take the time and watch that video, much appreciated!)

No, science has not “flipped again.” They made stupid mistakes in Feb and March, before they figured out how this virus is transmitted.

But on April 3, Fauci came out and said,(not a direct quote, I’m paraphrasing): “We’ve learned that little droplets ejected from people’s mouths spread this disease. And masks do a great job of absorbing these spittle particles. So please, everyone do your part and wear a mask.”

And he, and the vast majority of scientists, echoed that same consistent message— “wear a damn mask!”— throughout the month of April.

And May.

And June.

And July.

And August.

And September.

And October.

And so on.

So no, I just don’t get why ppl have to insist that the mask issue is so “confusing.” Fauci made a horrible mistake early on (in Feb and March), back when he thought “surface to surface contact” was the main engine of spread. (Hence his warnings about touching your face, etc.)

But ever since April 3, Fauci has been consistent in saying “wear the damn mask.” Yet ppl make this straw man argument that he’s constantly flip-flopping.

OC wrote: “And so now (according to you) science has flipped yet again and has determined the spread is primarily from particles mysticaly traveling thru air, not hands to mouth.“

No, my man. Science has been warning about the danger of particles expelled by the mouth (and the effectiveness of masks to absorb them) ever since early April.

Fauci made a big mistake, and apologized and owned up to it. But ever since April 3, Fauci has repeated the same message over and over and over and over and over.

 

[RamFan503]

I’d concede that POTUS is a charismatic dude and a compelling speaker. If POTUS truly believed that mask-wearing was good for the USA, I’m sure he could figure out some way of signaling that for his followers in some way that they’d eat it up. He could use sense of humor, or reminders about how mask-wearing is good for business, or all sorts of things.

Imagine if POTUS began every rally by saying something like, “Hey Wisconsin, let me see ‘em, let me see all your beautiful masks! Yeah, we gotta do it, we gotta protect grandma and grandpa. We love our Seniors, don’t we? And we gotta wear masks to keep things OPEN, we gotta keep this economy rolling! The vaccines are just around the corner, we won’t have to wear them much longer!”

This is a fair point. However, as has been said before in many ways, if POTUS says it, the "other side" takes the opposite approach. And it does it in unity. In a way, you might say that he is making mask wearing en vogue for his opposition. So there's his contribution to mask wearing.

As to the idea that his "followers" would eat it up... I highly doubt it. I would guess instead that many in his base would find it as a weakness and he would lose face with many of them. I don't buy that he could have had any kind of a win in all this with how the media and hollyweird pundits paint anything he does - no matter what he did. And IMO, that is born out by the FACT that he has done MANY things and made MAJOR efforts to do get PPEs rolling, ventilators, hospital beds, etc... and the usual suspects act like none of it happened.

My wife is in an at risk category as she has sarcoidosis. We do what we can to avoid getting this or anything that might be able to transfer to the lungs or other organs. But I have to work as does she. And we also have to live.

We go to places where others are not wearing masks like bars and restaurants. We wear masks as required and then take them off while eating and drinking. While it's possible that masks might make it a little less likely that we spread the virus if we were to get it, neither one of us believe it is going to make much difference in contracting it.

I make sanitizer for us and the restaurants I manage and am a firm believer in using it. I will continue to do that after this particular bug is gone as it will no doubt be replaced by the next one. Not only that, but I PERSONALLY believe that we should have been doing more of this all along. I carry a bottle everywhere I go.

Will I wear a mask once it is no longer required? Hell no. Do I think that masks are going to stop the spread? No. I only think they might slow the spread and the population bye in large will get it if they were going to get it. But it is more about seeing a facial expression; being able to stand over a broiler or a fryer for hours; being able to hear my employees without them practically having to shout through the mask (likely creating more droplets than the mask was going to stop if he was just speaking normally); and honestly, it is also about not feeling like I live in a third world country.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

Aw crap, I far prefer the words and tone from the unedited post you posted three minutes ago....

No, science has not “flipped again.” They made stupid mistakes in Feb and March, before they figured out how this virus is transmitted.

But on April 3, Fauci came out and said,(not a direct quote, I’m paraphrasing): “We’ve learned that little droplets ejected from people’s mouths spread this disease. And masks do a great job of absorbing these spittle particles. So please, everyone do your part and wear a mask.”

And he, and the vast majority of scientists, echoed that same consistent message— “wear a damn mask!”— throughout the month of April.

And May.

And June.

And July.

And August.

And September.

And October.

And so on.

So no, I just don’t get why ppl have to insist that the mask issue is so “confusing.” Fauci made a horrible mistake early on (in Feb and March), back when he thought “surface to surface contact” was the main engine of spread. (Hence his warnings about touching your face, etc.)

But ever since April 3, Fauci has been consistent in saying “wear the damn mask.” Yet ppl make this straw man argument that he’s constantly flip-flopping.

No, he made a big mistake, and apologized and owned up to it. And ever since April 3, Fauci has repeated the same message over and over and over and over and over.

Fair enough, we’ll just have agree to disagree, after all, neither of our takes have changed from 100 pages back, I have zero confidence in anything that comes out of Fauci’s mouth, they really need to get a real bright mind 20-30 younger than this flip flopping fossil, experts with 50 plus years owning to such a simple “mistake” right then and there he needed to go, 50 years!

Cheers!

 

[SWAdude]

Science, science, science, science........

if they are the only ones to listen to because they are the only ones that really know, why the hell do they change their minds ALL THE TIME!!!

Do we always only make life decisions based on science? NO!

Most of us wisely look at life holistically. And it has damn well served us well.

Scientists base their decisions on theory. We can use that, along with EVERYTHING ELSE!

 

[thirteen28]

Trust the science! Trust the science! Oh wait ... not THAT science ...

Multiple journals reject major mask study amid hints that it shows masks don't stop COVID

Results will be published "as soon as a journal is brave enough," researcher says.

justthenews.com

"A major study out of Denmark that sought to examine the efficacy of face masks at limiting the spread of COVID-19 has reportedly been rejected by multiple academic journals amid hints that the study found face coverings are not effective in protecting individuals from the coronavirus."

Lockdowns work!! Everybody must be confined to their homes and only go out if absolutely necessary!! Meanwhile, in Argentina ...

After 146 Days in Lockdown, Argentina’s Virus Problem Is Getting Worse

Argentina’s coronavirus fight is taking a turn for the worse as the nation that implemented one of Latin America’s strictest lockdowns sees deaths surge anyway.

www.bloomberg.com

Meanwhile, in Sweden ...

Source: https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se

 

[-X-]

So no, I just don’t get why ppl have to insist that the mask issue is so “confusing.” Fauci made a horrible mistake early on (in Feb and March), back when he thought “surface to surface contact” was the main engine of spread. (Hence his warnings about touching your face, etc.)

Yeah, I don't know about all that. He started before February and March. On January 30th he said, "Obviously, you need to take it seriously and do the kind of things that the CDC and the Department of Homeland Security are doing. But this is not a major threat for the people of the United States. And this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about."

Look, he's obviously a very smart person with decades of experience in immunology, and one of the leaders in the field of infectious diseases, but he's said some very stupid and counter-intuitive things. If this guy is the standard for information and we should heed his every word, then why would he (a) predict this would be a big nothing burger for us, (b) use the IHME model that predicted millions of US deaths, and then weeks later tell the press that "you can't rely on models", (c) say it's not driven by asymptomatic carriers, (d) go on National Television to denounce mask-wearing, (e) say that going on dating app hookups is something people can do if they want to risk it, and then (f) have his professional opinions used as the rationale that the President is the one who mishandled everything? I mean, maybe if you count the President appointing this guy, then yeah. He mishandled it.