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FALCONS ARE ON THE ROAD, BUT HERE'S WHY IT'S OK
Matthew Tabeek
Welcome to Straight from the ’Beek! It’s Tuesday on a short week as the Falcons are busy preparing for Saturday’s wild-card showdown against the Rams in Los Angeles. And you’ve got plenty of questions – so let’s get right to them. Just remember, all opinions you see in this space are mine, unless otherwise noted.
Robert from Ellenwood, GA
What scenario would have to play out for the Falcons to have a playoff game at home?
Matt: There are no scenarios, Robert. Due to the fact that the Falcons are the sixth seed – the lowest-seeded team in the NFC – they will not host a single game. They will be the road team in the wild-card round and for as long as they continue to survive and advance. And in case you’re wondering if there’s a chance they’d be the home team in the Super Bowl should they make it to Minneapolis, the answer is no.
Since AFC teams are the home team in even-numbered years and this will be Super Bowl LII, the eventual AFC champs will be the designated home team. The NFC is home during odd-numbered years. For what it’s worth, Super Bowl LIII will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and the Falcons could be the home team if they were to make it.
And how about this little nugget? Regardless of which team makes it, the home team might want to consider wearing their white jerseys. Why? Teams in white jerseys have won 12 of the past 13 Super Bowls.
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Omar in Orange, CA
My question is, how much do you think playing on the road and outdoors will affect the team? If they win, they go to Philly. I think it will help the brotherhood aspect of the team and create an 'us against everybody' mentality that will serve them well. Your thoughts?
Matt: The Falcons were just as good on the road (5-3) as they were at home (5-3) this season, Omar. As far as playing outside goes, the Falcons were 4-2 this season. The won on the road against the Bears, Jets, Seahawks and Buccaneers. The lost outside on the road against the Patriots and Panthers. So, based on those results, I don’t think they’ll be affected in an adverse way. It’ll come down to how they play on the field against the Rams.
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Emerson from Greensboro, NC
Do you think Steve Sarkisian will cut back on the toss runs and focus more on running out of a shotgun formation? Go Falcons!
Matt: I don’t expect the Falcons offensive coordinator to change his philosophy at all once the postseason starts, Emerson. I think you’ll see the Falcons try to take advantage and exploit any type of mismatches and run the same offense they’ve been running all season long.
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Tony from Redding, CA
Finally, a pretty good performance on both sides of ball. That was the best performance of the season so far, and I’m glad when it mattered most they responded. I’ve been saying all year that Steve Sarkisian needs to get running backs more involved in the passing game and Freeman’s nine catches were huge! I believe if he keeps that up in playoffs it will be key to getting on to the next round.
Looks like we will probably be without
Taylor Gabriel for a while so
Justin Hardy is gonna have to step up. I think he’s very talented and will be up to task. Special teams are gonna be key going forward too, and we’re gonna have to play better there. That’s been a bit subpar this year but very fixable issues.
As far as the Rams game goes, I really believe this team matches up well with them. We should be able to run the ball against the Rams and keeping Aaron Donald out of our backfield will be huge. Might be good idea to give
Wes Schweitzer some help on passing downs when he lines up over him. I believe that defensively if we shut down Todd Gurley we will win this game, and I think our defense is peaking at the right time.
Gotta cut down on pre-snap penalties and we’re due to get some calls our way. The last couple weeks the refs have not been kind to us. Lol! Looking forward to next Saturday!
Matt: Hey, Tony. You’re right about Freeman – he was targeted 11 times – just as many times as
Julio Jones and
Mohamed Sanu during the Panthers game – and he caught nine passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. He was an integral part of the Falcons’ success on Sunday and that should give the Rams plenty to think about come Saturday. I think the rest of your comments are on point, and thanks for writing.
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Jim from Roswell, GA
. I think our defense has looked good all season and they have kept us in every game, but with all the inconsistencies our offense has shown throughout the season such as bad red zone efficiency and dropped balls/interceptions, my question is, do you think this offense can find their swagger in the playoffs? Even with how good
Matt Bryant has been playing, we can’t rely on him to score the majority of our points in the playoffs.
Matt: A couple of thoughts based off your comments. The Falcons are not the same team as they were last year – and what I mean is, they’re built different and playing different. Their defense is playing much better this season and, as a result, they can rely on them more. They aren’t giving up a ton of points and being forced to score a ton more to pull out wins.
Some are calling this team a defensive team, but I just think they’re more balanced. I think they have a swagger, but have been inconsistent, too, at times. And you’re right about Bryant – he’s certainly a reliable weapon, but you’re not going to survive and advance without scoring touchdowns in the red zone – even with the Falcons defense playing so well.
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Joe from Shelby, NC
It was great to see
Andy Levitre return. Our offensive line is so much better with him in there. The Falcons took the ball right down the field the first series. As soon as he went out, our running game stopped. I sure hope that he is ready to go against the Rams. The Rams aren't good against the run, and with Levitre in, the Falcons can keep the Rams offense on the sideline. Atlanta really needs him in this game.
Matt: We will find out more about Levitre’s status this week. There’s no question that teams want to be at full strength heading into the postseason, but it’s tough this time of year.
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Maniyu from Honolulu, HI
Solid win on Sunday wrapped up 2017 beautifully. Our defense seems to really be clicking. I’m generally just curious about your take on the matchup with the Rams. We haven’t lost to a team with a rookie quarterback in quite a while (2016 maybe?), but most of our wins against ‘contenders’ this year have come when the opposing team was missing one or more key players (i.e., Stewart on Sunday).
What do you think that does for our chances against a healthy (and rested) Rams team? Also, our defense has done a good job of containing explosive, multi-faceted running backs – like Alvin Kamara. Does Todd Gurley do anything different that we should be especially concerned about on Saturday night?
Matt: Don’t underestimate the Rams. First, Jared Goff is not a rookie quarterback – he just completed his second season, which was far better than his rookie campaign. After going 0-7, completing 112 of 205 passes for 1,089 yards and throwing just five touchdown passes in 2016, Goff made a huge turnaround in 2017.
Goff, who sat out the final game of the season, led the Rams to an 11-4 record, completed 296 of 477 passes for 3,804 yards and tossed 28 touchdown passes under new coach Sean McVay. And you mentioned Gurley – he’s also coming off his best year in the league, running for 1,305 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns on the ground.
When the Rams get the running game going, they’re tough to beat. He also sat out the Rams’ final game of the season, but in the four games they lost with him in the lineup, Gurley did not rush for more than 100 yards in each. So limiting the third-year back out of Georgia will be likely be huge key for the Falcons.
https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2018/...-opens-up-as-a-touchdown-underdog-on-the-road
Falcons-Rams playoff odds: Atlanta opens up as a touchdown underdog on the road
You would expect nothing less.
By Dave Choate
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
The
Atlanta Falcons just slipped into the playoffs, and their very first matchup will pit them against one of the NFC’s best offenses and a very solid defense. The
Los Angeles Rams are playing their first season in California under rookie head coach Sean McVay, but they’re a formidable opponent with the talent to make a deep playoff run. It will be a stiff test for our beloved birds, to say the least.
Predictably, the Falcons are underdogs in this game. They’re listed as 5.5 point underdogs most everywhere, and that makes perfect sense considering the questions around Atlanta’s week-to-week performance, the fact that the Rams are at home, and the fact that there are legitimate questions about whether the Falcons can stop
Todd Gurley for a full game. I’m hoping Atlanta can answer those and come away with a win, but the line is not a surprise whatsoever.
The Falcons have experience working in their favor, and a defense that has swung between good and genuinely great over the last month. If that defense shows up, the offense can do more than just pile up the field goals.
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Just how I want it
We do, at least, seem to play with a bit more fire as underdogs.
Also, we generally play pretty well on West coast trips. So I’d hope that trend continues
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our team can’t stand prosperity but does well as underdog. I guess it’s something about psychology.
And I hope Vic Beasley remembers how he sacked crap out of Goff in the previous matchup (a strip sack returned for a TD along the way).
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Goff has at least two major mistakes he's gonna make in this game
it’s imperative we capitalize on’em
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Best we could hope for
The Rams are tough, but we have a fast defense that can focus in on Gurley. This seems like a better match up than the Saints at home.
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First impulse was to think that seemed a bit high, but the more I think about it, I could see the line moving 1 or 1.5 points in the Rams favor.
I think this is a winnable game, but the expectation should be that the Falcons defense will have trouble stopping Gurley and that the Falcons offense will be able to move the ball, but have trouble finishing drives. And that the Falcons special teams will set both the offense and the defense up with disadvantageous field position.
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Bad matchup for Rams
Our defense is built to stop teams like the Rams. Plus our wide receivers are going to play well against their secondary. Also rams run defense is not good. Look for Freeman and Coleman to be the ones to take us to victory
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That's some nice optimism.
Todd Gurley played 15 games this year. He had over 2,000 all purpose yards and 19 touchdowns. He’s Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman if the two of them were one guy. And if we’re honestly, he’s actually a little better than that. He should probably be the league MVP.
In what world is this Falcons defense built to stop an offense built around such a dominant back? This Falcons defense struggles with strong and versatile backs, and Gurley is the best back in the league by a wide margin.
Yes, it’s possible the Falcons can load the box and keep Gurley to 80-85 yards rushing, but we shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking they’re built to do that. Because they’re not. They’re undersized and they get pushed around a fair amount. And even if they keep Gurley more or less contained, Goff made major strides this season—28 touchdowns to 7 interceptions in 15 games.
The Falcons defense is not untalented. But the Rams are a team that runs the ball extraordinarily well, throws the ball well (very effectively using the running back in the passing game) and that protects the ball extremely well. This is the antithesis of the offense this Falcons defense was built to stop.
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Defense only had trouble with Ajayi. After that we’ve done pretty well. 104.5 ypg for rushing and that’s usually against teams with 2 or more solid backs. Rams only have Gurley. 214 yards per game for passing.
What we’ve actually had trouble with is mobile QBs.
Our Offense has had trouble scoring tds despite good field position opportunities.
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The Falcons do have trouble with mobile quarterbacks.
They also have trouble tackling in space and have been abused by several different running backs, particularly in the second half of close games. They also struggle covering running backs in the passing game (according to Football Outsiders, they’re 21st in the league). It’s not a great matchup for the Falcons defense.
You’re right that the Falcons offense has had trouble taking advantage of a couple favorable bits of field position that they were
finally gifted by the defense in the last couple weeks. Sark’s red zone playcalling has been a problem for a lot of the year, and it was never so on display as in the New Orleans game.
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If the Rams had two backs I'd be worried.
We have a choice – either let Gurley try to win the game or make Goff win it. The games the Rams have lost (save one where Gurley got 99 yards rushing) have all been games where Gurley was made into an avg back. Those games also were the ones where Goff threw his picks. I think we’ll do fine against Gurley.
Space tackling is erratic as is much else on this team but it looked like they worked on it for the Panthers game. We get abused once or a few times by pass catching backs but nothing unusual – it happens to every team.
I hope our Offense gets us a lead where we can be more aggressive but I don’t think Q and Manuel prefer to do that.
I’m concerned about the front 7 of LA. The Panthers and Saints gave Ryan hell – he responded well in one of those games.
I pray that Sark remembers TeCo on Saturday and that Hooper is not in outer space – they can be excellent weapons against the pass rush.
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We don't give up many long plays thankfully. If we stop dumb penalties we're good.
Defense has played much better. Just have to accept that they give up the dinks and dunks all the way to the Red Zone but then they tend to stop the other team from scoring tds.
For all the talk about giving up long drives etc we still don’t give up many points or total yardage. The Defense has been good about choosing what to shut down and doing it.
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Fewer possessions benefit the defensive yardage and point total stats.
If you look at the top 10 defenses (total yards), you get:
Minnesota (4415) 163 drives (26.52 yards per drive—fourth)
Jacksonville (4578) 183 drives (23.48 yards per drive—first)
Denver (4640) 175 drives (24.44 yards per drive—second)
Philly (4904) 171 drives (27.63 yards per drive—sixth)
Pittsburgh (4910) 160 drives (28.39 yards per drive—eighth)
Arizona (4975) 181 drives (25.85 yards per drive—third)
Carolina (5074) 162 drives (28.88 yards per drive—tenth)
Dallas (5089) 151 drives (33.55 yards per drive—27th)
Atlanta (5089) 150 drives (31.95 yards per drive—21st)
Both Dallas and Atlanta squeak into the top 10 on the strength of playing a full game’s worth of possessions fewer than most of the rest of the league. Both Dallas and Atlanta are actually near the bottom of the league when you compare plays and time of possession per drive stats. And they’re both mid tier in points per drive.
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We're going to have to find some way (any way) to break our pattern this year.
Falcons have only been underdogs twice this year and neither was a good result (23-7, 23-13). I guess none of that matters now—it’s a new season.
Winning this game comes down to what offense shows up and whether they can finally start limiting what’s been killing them, which is mostly themselves. Penalties, dropped/tipped passes, bizarre playcalling, errant throws, etc. are pretty much the story of the 2017 offense. I really wish Levitre was healthy. It seems to be a big factor having all five starters—our only TD against Carolina happened with all five in there.
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Our offense needs to show up and score early and often
That would force Goff to throw more, thereby, creating more opportunities for mistakes. If we can get a sizable lead, we win the game. If it ends up being close, I’m not as optimistic.
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Anybody expecting a multiple score win hasn’t been paying attention. Even if we do get a decent lead, we will go into soft zone and allow the opposing team back into it. It’s just who we are this season.
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I hate to admit it but you are on the money. Our losses were excruciatingly close as well as 7 of those wins. I just want that 28-3 "hangover" anger to erupt for these final 4 games.
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Gurley is as good a back in the league and they can wrap up and finish or not. Talk is cheap.
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Nobody seems to be talking much about injuries
Clayborn got injured in the last contest and I haven’t heard much about his status going forward. I think Freeman came off limping late vs Carolina as well. Wonder where we’re at in terms of health to key guys.
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I just noticed the rams were a pedestrian 4-4 at home this year…maybe not so daunting of a task after all of picking up a win here.
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