Trust me I get it, if the trade is there to be made by all means the Rams should do it.
Trust me I get it, if the trade is there to be made by all means the Rams should do it.
Agreed on both counts. Finding an elite guy is hard. But the reason I chose the criteria of long-term starter is because that's an objective thing. A team choosing to stay with a guy for the length of his rookie and/or sign him to an extension is a fact that provides some degree of objectivity.Yeah and when you start to define hit things sure do get subjective too.
Crazy thing is for the Rams an average starter isn't good enough, so the percentages are probably worse than you cited. We have already seen McVay cast off a good QB in Goff.
Whoever they go get I hope he is hyper competitive and loves the shit out of ball.
A young QB has got to go to the right situation with the right coaching staff.Facts. Last draft, I researched the hit rate for all 1st round QBs since Stafford's draft, judging success as merely being a long-term starter for the drafting team. This is not even talking about whether the QB is above average or elite. And it obviously leaves out Sam Darnold type reclamation projects.
Anyway, the hit rate for picks 1-5 was 60%, 6-15 was 40%, and 16-32 was 20%. It's hard out there.
IMO, the problem is teams aren't developing these guys right. They're looking for immediate results when as you say very few young QBs have "it." They need to be more patient and not rush the QB into starting.
The other problem is too much emphasis on tools (arm and legs) rather than the mental aspect. You mentioned QBs who can't read a defense and lack intelligence. I didn't run the numbers on this but my general sense was that the players who had the mental aspect coming out of college - could read a defense, go through progressions, adjust protections, manipulate defenders, etc. - had much greater success even when they lacked some in the arm or mobility department. (I'm not entirely sure QBs develop a whole lot in this mental area when it was wholly lacking in college, but I'm open to being shown to be wrong.)
So IMO, you gotta go with talent + giveafuck + mental processing if you want success. And I'd rank talent/tools third in that equation.
This should be in blue font:
View: https://x.com/richjohnsonnfl/status/1993763583771988289?s=46&t=WEmuN_hfFyUykYusVuf0Tw
This should be in blue font:
View: https://x.com/richjohnsonnfl/status/1993763583771988289?s=46&t=WEmuN_hfFyUykYusVuf0Tw
I mean is name is literally translated as "Dick Dick" so there's thatHis whole account should be in blue font. I decided to see who this guy was. I suspect he’s actually an AI douche bot created for trolling. He looks like he’s 70 but just joined X in ‘24 and has less than 2000 followers. His posts are all douchy rumors. How the fuck he has even that many followers is a sad commentary on society.
This is true. However I think there's also accountability required for the young QB. To be a top performer at this position in the NFL requires enormous amounts of buy-in by the QB, which includes studying film and working on the mental and physical aspects of the job.A young QB has got to go to the right situation with the right coaching staff.
And I question if there are really that many NFL coaching staffs that can develop young QBs.
If the Rams go that route, hopefully they are one of them.
Sure, it's on the coaches and the players.This is true. However I think there's also accountability required for the young QB. To be a top performer at this position in the NFL requires enormous amounts of buy-in by the QB, which includes studying film and working on the mental and physical aspects of the job.
So I try not to make it all about the coach. Also as it pertains to our staff, I think McVay and his boys are plenty good enough for bringing any young QB in this league to a level of excellence. But I also think they are capable of making a non-optimum selection or hitting a wall where a good QB is not good enough.
If we use the Colts as an example, they have a very good offensive mind running that offense in their HC position. Now granted I don't follow them like we do the Rams. But I like the way he draws it up and he was very effective in Philly. He tends to favor QBs who run threat and can do a little read action. Makes a big selection of a QB in the draft who shows very little in two years, suffers injuries and also takes himself out of a game for being tired/winded. Is Steichen the problem? Last year I would have said ok maybe he's just not HC material. But in comes Jones and boom that fuckin offense takes off in a similar fashion to the GSoT, meaning they had built a strong structure of offense but nobody knew it until they got a real QB in there.
We could do this with plenty of other teams too, there is no shortage of examples of young QBs who fall short not just because the coaches aren't good enough, but also because it's a tough fucking job and a lot of these boys aren't ready mentally to handle it. NFL defenses are no joke. You gotta have next level knowhow to read and diagnose when they're showing/shifting different looks pre and post snap on the back end and bringing heat on the front.
The QB has to read all that every snap. So I agree it's in part coaching. I agree young QBs have a hard road of it. But it's also the quality of the kid in that QB role.
That's a bit too much hindsight for my taste.Sure, it's on the coaches and the players.
But as for your example, Daniel Jones has been in the league for 6 years and had a decent season in 2022 before he even got to Steichen.
Anthony Richardson had only started 13 college games before he entered the league and thrust into the starting lineup way too early.
I think we are talking about two different things.That's a bit too much hindsight for my taste.
Nobody prior to the season was talking up Indy. But they were the best offense in this league through the first half of the season. Saying "oh well Jones did have some good games prior" doesn't really factor in here. Fact is that the moment they plugged a QB in that offense who can distribute the ball to the talent they assembled that unit blasted off. Now the media is like "wow look at all these weapons."
Re: Richardson some of us like the upside. Some of us think he's only upside. I'm in the latter camp, and don't want to argue about what he is because that will be proven on the field. But as it pertained to the Colts throwing starts at him, he wasn't even remotely ready.
And the year before the Vikes were a good example with Darnold. Which I think favors your point of view with the staffs being so important. Really we see all this similarly, I just tend to feel the need to point out player responsibility in these discussions.
Where it applies is the difference in the offenses.I think we are talking about two different things.
My comments above were in regards to the development of young QBs entering the league. Not veterans.
BTW, the insertion of Daniel Jones has shown a significant difference in the Colts offense this year, but so has not having all the OLine injuries and inexperience they were forced to deal with last year..
In his interview with Garret he said he wants to play as long as he's having fun so he may not ride off. Who knows at this point but I expect him back next season either way.Also while it's on my mind... IF the Rams win it all this year with Stafford I think there's a strong chance he sails off into the sunset knowing the Hall is assured. Because he's a family man, and it would be an opportunity to go out on top knowing your long career is capped properly.
So then what would the Rams do hypothetically speaking.
I suspect they may make a play for that top pick, or failing that one of the others in the top 3.
In his interview with Garret he said he wants to play as long as he's having fun so he may not ride off. Who knows at this point but I expect him back next season either way.
When he signed his new deal his comment was "I'm here for another year and maybe more after that".The thought that Stafford is "looking" to retire is patently false, IMO. Spent 12 years in a horrible Detroit Lions situation, he wants to spend AS MUCH TIME POSSIBLE with the functional Rams and All-Time Great Head Coach Sean McVay as he can, also IMO.
He's 37. He's going to play his age 38, 39, 40, and beyond seasons at a high level as his contemporaries Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers did.
No one Jim Brown did it in 1965.Would it be the first time in the history of the NFL that the MVP retires the year he receives it?
He's "flirted" with retirement in the same manner Favre and Rodgers did, every year the last 5 years of their careers. And for the same reasons, ego, and MORE money.When he signed his new deal his comment was "I'm here for another year and maybe more after that".
He's also flirted with retirement the last 2 years.
That's not patently false that's his own words and actions.
My whole point with Stafford and others who've done the same thing is there's no possible way you, I or anybody else on this board or others know that for sure. Absolutely money can make you put up with another year of beating. But like with guys like AD they can also walk away from it when they feel it's done.And for the same reasons, ego, and MORE money.