Wentz headed to Sr. bowl

[Athos]

And again, who exactly does Cook through too that will be an NFL War or has gone on to become one?

Maybe Burbridge. Maybe.

 

[Stel]

To be fair, how many of his pass catchers will be impact players on Sundays?

Probably about as many as the Rams have.

 

[jrry32]

And again, who exactly does Cook through too that will be an NFL War or has gone on to become one?

Maybe Burbridge. Maybe.

Well, if we're talking about reaching the NFL, he'll probably have around 5 or 6 WRs over his career that reach the NFL. Off the top of my head, all of these guys have reached the NFL or likely will get a shot:
Bennie Fowler (UDFA)
Keith Mumphrey (5th round)
Tony Lippett (5th round)
Aaron Burbridge (4th/5th round)
Macgarrette Kings (late round/UDFA)
R.J. Shelton (late round/UDFA)

The last three are projections. But none of the guys in the NFL have done much.(Tony Lippett is actually playing CB in the NFL)

 

[Stel]

Didn't stop Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, or Matt Stafford from being successful.

I realize that you and I will never agree on Cook. We'll find out who is right in a couple of years.

You found four sub 60% college passers who found some success in the NFL out of 14 years of drafting. Let's look at them.

Matt Ryan was one pass out of 1347 from being a 60% college passer and, not surprisingly, he is the most successful of your four. Ryan's last three years in college he completed 62.1%, 61.6%, and 59.3%.

Carson Palmer steadily improved in college and finished his senior year completing 63.2% of his passes after being at 54.2% and 58.6% the previous 2 years. As it was, in the 9 years before he got to Arizona he had a career 54-67 record as a starter.

Jay Culter at least had one season as a better than 60% passer. He is not a elite passer in the NFL and has a .500 record as a starter.

Matt Stafford steadily improved in college, finishing his senior year completing 61.4% of his passes after being at 52.7% and 55.7% the previous 2 years.

Connor Cook, on the other hand, has seen his completion percentage decline each year, finishing his Senior year with a 56.8% mark. While he may find success in the NFL, I doubt he is ever more than a 60% passer. In today's NFL, that gets you a lot of middle of the pack seasons and draft picks in the teens.

Agree you don't base an entire evaluation on one stat. However, completion percentage is a very important stat. Doesn't matter how good your read defenses, how good your decisions are, or how strong your arm is if you cannot complete passes.

 

[Athos]

Well Eli is a career 60% passer in the NFL.

But he finds the end zone more often than not.

 

[Stel]

Well Eli is a career 60% passer in the NFL.

But he finds the end zone more often than not.

And he was a better than 60% passer in college. If Cook follows Eli's pattern, he would be a 56.4% passer in the NFL. Hey, that is exactly Nick Foles this year, good for 34th in the NFL. Is that what you want out of a first round QB?

 

[jrry32]

I realize that you and I will never agree on Cook. We'll find out who is right in a couple of years.

You found four sub 60% college passers who found some success in the NFL out of 14 years of drafting. Let's look at them.

Matt Ryan was one pass out of 1347 from being a 60% college passer and, not surprisingly, he is the most successful of your four. Ryan's last three years in college he completed 62.1%, 61.6%, and 59.3%.

His completion percentage got worse over his college career (something you criticized Cook for) and he finished below 60% for his career.

Carson Palmer steadily improved in college and finished his senior year completing 63.2% of his passes after being at 54.2% and 58.6% the previous 2 years. As it was, in the 9 years before he got to Arizona he had a career 54-67 record as a starter.

And Matt Ryan's got worse each year as a starter. It means absolutely nothing.

And don't even try to imply that Palmer isn't a quality QB. The Rams would spend a #1 pick without thinking twice if they believed that QB was another Carson Palmer.

Jay Culter at least had one season as a better than 60% passer. He is not a elite passer in the NFL and has a .500 record as a starter.

And he had a worse career completion percentage than Connor Cook. Who cares if he's an elite passer? He's a quality QB. The Rams would happily take a young Jay Cutler.

And it's odd that you bring up record here considering Connor Cook's team is 36-4 since he took over as a starter. You consider that irrelevant (or far less important than completion percentage) but consider Cutler's record in the NFL relevant?

Matt Stafford steadily improved in college, finishing his senior year completing 61.4% of his passes after being at 52.7% and 55.7% the previous 2 years.

Matt Stafford played on some ridiculously talented teams in a QB friendly system and still finished with a lower career completion percentage than Connor Cook.

Connor Cook, on the other hand, has seen his completion percentage decline each year, finishing his Senior year with a 56.8% mark. While he may find success in the NFL, I doubt he is ever more than a 60% passer.

Matt Ryan (career)
College - 59.9%
NFL - 64.2%

Carson Palmer (career)
College - 59.1%
NFL - 62.8%

Jay Cutler (career)
College - 57.2%
NFL - 61.9%

Matt Stafford (career)
College - 57.1%
NFL - 60.4%

Donovan McNabb (career)
College - 58.4%
NFL - 59.0%

Every single QB I gave you with a college completion percentage below 60% is now completing more than 60% during their NFL career except Donovan McNabb. And frankly, I don't think a single one of us Rams fans would be complaining if Connor Cook turns into a 6 time Pro Bowl QB that only has a career completion percentage of 59%.

His completion percentage declining is irrelevant. Peyton Manning's worst completion percentage of his college career came his Senior year in college. Same with Matt Ryan. Same with Tom Brady. And I'm sure there are more QBs that's true of.

In today's NFL, that gets you a lot of middle of the pack seasons and draft picks in the teens.

Yea, the Carolina Panthers are really struggling this year with Cam Newton only completion 58.8% of his passes. I'm sure the Rams would struggle to win if we only had a Jay Cutler level QB. Why spend a first round pick to get that when you can stick with Case Keenum?

Agree you don't base an entire evaluation on one stat. However, completion percentage is a very important stat. Doesn't matter how good your read defenses, how good your decisions are, or how strong your arm is if you cannot complete passes.

No, it's not. We're not talking about a QB that can't complete passes. We're talking about a QB only completing 57% of his passes instead of 60% of his passes.

Completion percentage is not an important stat. Tim Tebow, Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, etc. had higher career completion percentages in college than Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. Those busts completed plenty of passes. But unfortunately for them, it did matter at the NFL level how good they were at reading defenses, making decisions, etc.

It's odd to me that you ignore Cook's stellar TD to Int ratio (for a pro style college QB) to harp on completion percentage. I happen to value a high TD to Int ratio far more than a high completion percentage. Give me 2015 Cam Newton or Blake Bortles any day of the week and twice on Sundays over 2015 Kirk Cousins or Matt Ryan.

 

[jrry32]

And he was a better than 60% passer in college. If Cook follows Eli's pattern, he would be a 56.4% passer in the NFL. Hey, that is exactly Nick Foles this year, good for 34th in the NFL. Is that what you want out of a first round QB?

Yep. I'll take a 56.4% passer if he's throwing 29 TDs to 8 Ints and putting up over 7 yards per attempt.

 

[Stel]

Yea, the Carolina Panthers are really struggling this year with Cam Newton only completion 58.8% of his passes. I'm sure the Rams would struggle to win if we only had a Jay Cutler level QB. Why spend a first round pick to get that when you can stick with Case Keenum?

You think Connor Cook at 58.8% will be able to do what Newton does? Seriously?

Cam Newton, college rushing, 285 carries, 1586 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, 24 TDs.
Connor Cook, college rushing, 169 carries, 233 yards, 1.4 yards per carry, 3 TDs.

Oh, and Newton was a 65+% passer in college.

Cook and Newton are nearly the same and we can expect Cook to be just as successful in the NFL.

I want to spend a first round pick on a QB, just not on Cook.

 

[Athos]

Especially with a run game that has Gurley and Tavon. That'd be some TD production.

 

[dieterbrock]

When McNabb was young...sure. When he was in his 30s, he wasn't much of a runner. Still was a Pro Bowl level QB until his last couple years.

BTW, I don't know why you're implying that Cook isn't mobile. It's not hurting your team if he's running the ball. He's actually a pretty athletic QB. Similar to Cutler in terms of mobility.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=11761106



Why would that make it more excusable? If you're evaluating his accuracy by watching the games, none of this would really matter.



No, he didn't. Cousins played under Don Treadwell who left to coach Miami of Ohio and spent his final year under Dan Roushar who now coaches for the Saints. Cook has played his entire career under Dave Warner and Jim Bollman (co-OCs). They don't run the same system that Cousins did. They run a more vertically oriented offense. It's basically like Michigan State went from a WCO to an Air Coryell offense.

Plus, if we're going to bring up Cousins...yes, he had a much better career completion percentage. But Cook's TD to Int ratio is much higher.(Cousins threw 66 TDs to 30 Ints while Cook has 71 TDs to 20 Ints) I'd say TD to Int ratio is more important than completion percentage.

So wait, we are comparing Cook as a prospect to McNabb as a 30 year old? You lost me there man.
As for Cook at MSU it was Dantoni offense which has opened up.
Cook plays from a clean pocket and throws some wtf passes.
Frankly I'm surprised you're supportive of him. At least as a 1 rounder. He misses a lot of throws.

 

[SuperMan28]

I liked Mannion better coming out. Pass.

 

[Stel]

Updated mocks on cbssports.com, Rams picking at 17

Rob Rang has us taking WR Laquon Treadwell (only QBs off board are Lynch and Goff, Cook goes 22 to Houston)
Dane Brugler has us taking CB TreDavius White (Lynch, Goff and Cook off the board; has Wentz going 22 to Houston)

 

[jrry32]

You think Connor Cook at 58.8% will be able to do what Newton does? Seriously?

Do exactly what Newton does? No. But if you're going to focus so intently on numbers, Cook's career TD to Int ratio project out to 29 TDs to 8 Ints over a 16 game season. I think the Rams won't give a shit about his 57% completion percentage if he's throwing 29 TDs to 8 Ints...or even 24 TDs to 10 Ints.

But I also think your conclusion that he'll never be a 60% passer is an erroneous one. He's far from a finished product and as I already demonstrated, all but one of the QBs that I gave as examples of passers with sub-60% completion percentages are averaging a completion percentage above 60% for their NFL career.

Cam Newton, college rushing, 285 carries, 1586 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, 24 TDs.
Connor Cook, college rushing, 169 carries, 233 yards, 1.4 yards per carry, 3 TDs.

Oh, and Newton was a 65+% passer in college.

Cook and Newton are nearly the same and we can expect Cook to be just as successful in the NFL.

I want to spend a first round pick on a QB, just not on Cook.

Cook and Newton have very little in common. But the QBs Cook has the most in common with (Cutler/Stafford/Eli) are all quality QBs that all of us would kill to have on this team.

As for Newton, he completed 65% of his passes in a spread. He had accuracy issues coming out.(of course, if you only looked at completion percentage, you wouldn't realize it) But he's improved quite a bit in the NFL as a passer and his low completion percentage this year is more connected to the quality of his WRs and the vertical nature of his offense than accuracy.

If Cook had played in the sorts of spread systems that guys like Newton, Goff, Weeden, etc. played in...he'd have a completion percentage well above 60% for his career. But he'd actually be a lesser prospect.

So wait, we are comparing Cook as a prospect to McNabb as a 30 year old? You lost me there man.
As for Cook at MSU it was Dantoni offense which has opened up.
Cook plays from a clean pocket and throws some wtf passes.
Frankly I'm surprised you're supportive of him. At least as a 1 rounder. He misses a lot of throws.

I'm not comparing Cook at all to McNabb. I'm telling you that McNabb is a clear example of a QB with poor accuracy that succeeded because the rest of his skill-set was so strong. You pointed out that he was mobile. Which is why I brought up 30 year old McNabb...even after he lost his mobility, he was still a quality QB.

Mark Dantonio isn't an offensive coach. He coached defense all his career before becoming HC.

I don't blame you for being surprised. Typically, I hate QBs with accuracy problems/inconsistencies. But Cook is a rare exception. The mental acuity and instincts make up for it for me.

Cook does get quality protection but he also has shown the ability to handle pressure just fine.

 

[jrry32]

Okay...so found a passing chart on twitter for Cook. I'm not sure if it's accurate but it's the best I have so I'm going to roll with it. Here are his percentage of attempts in each range:
Behind LOS - 7.5%
0 to 10 yards - 43.3%
11 to 20 yards - 35.7%
20+ yards - 13.5%

Here's Greg Peshek's QB metrics from last year:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/52722/349/2015s-quarterback-conundrum

It has the average of those QBs:
Behind LOS - 21.1%
0 to 10 yards - 42.7%
11 to 20 yards - 22.7%
20+ yards - 13.5%

Here's his metrics from 2014:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/out-of-the-box

It also has the average of those QBs:
Behind LOS - 22.1%
0 to 10 yards - 42.3%
11 to 20 yards - 21.3%
20+ yards - 14.3%

Based on that, I'd say the average top QB prospect throws around 21.6% of passes behind the LOS, 42.5% 0-10 yard passes, 22% 11-20 yard passes, and 13.9% deep passes.

Compare that to Cook's numbers and you'll see how his offensive system hinders his completion percentage. The 14.1% of his behind the LOS throws are almost entirely distributed to the intermediate range (11-20 yards) which is a far lower percentage throw.

 

[Dodgersrf]

Okay...so found a passing chart on twitter for Cook. I'm not sure if it's accurate but it's the best I have so I'm going to roll with it. Here are his percentage of attempts in each range:
Behind LOS - 7.5%
0 to 10 yards - 43.3%
11 to 20 yards - 35.7%
20+ yards - 13.5%

Here's Greg Peshek's QB metrics from last year:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/52722/349/2015s-quarterback-conundrum

It has the average of those QBs:
Behind LOS - 21.1%
0 to 10 yards - 42.7%
11 to 20 yards - 22.7%
20+ yards - 13.5%

Here's his metrics from 2014:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/out-of-the-box

It also has the average of those QBs:
Behind LOS - 22.1%
0 to 10 yards - 42.3%
11 to 20 yards - 21.3%
20+ yards - 14.3%

Based on that, I'd say the average top QB prospect throws around 21.6% of passes behind the LOS, 42.5% 0-10 yard passes, 22% 11-20 yard passes, and 13.9% deep passes.

Compare that to Cook's numbers and you'll see how his offensive system hinders his completion percentage. The 14.1% of his behind the LOS throws are almost entirely distributed to the intermediate range (11-20 yards) which is a far lower percentage throw.

Nice breakdown.

 

[dieterbrock]

I don't blame you for being surprised. Typically, I hate QBs with accuracy problems/inconsistencies. But Cook is a rare exception. The mental acuity and instincts make up for it for me.

Its also a matter of watching a kid play vs watching tape. I've seen far too many games of Cook where I scratch my head.
In any event, back to Wentz, ND State doesnt play again for a couple weeks, wonder if he'll play?

 

[jrry32]

Its also a matter of watching a kid play vs watching tape. I've seen far too many games of Cook where I scratch my head.
In any event, back to Wentz, ND State doesnt play again for a couple weeks, wonder if he'll play?

I think he will. They made him a game time decision each of the past two weeks.

 

[Athos]

Awesome shit @jrry32

Having almost 50% of your passes travel 11-20% yards in the air is insane. That's decreases anyone's accuracy especially if you don't have even one top notch WR.

If expect those stats from a Clemson style O.

For perspective Rodgers attempted such cases passes 33% of the time. Same for Dalton this season.

Ryan comes in at 30% this season.

Big Ben was at 52% last year yea, but that offense is stacked.

Palmer this year is 43%.

Eli is 27%.

I think with a more NFL style O which limits such pass attempts closer to the 30% range there's prolly be an increase of accuracy with Cook.

 

[jrry32]

Awesome crap @jrry32

Having almost 50% of your passes travel 11-20% yards in the air is insane. That's decreases anyone's accuracy especially if you don't have even one top notch WR.

If expect those stats from a Clemson style O.

For perspective Rodgers attempted such cases passes 33% of the time. Same for Dalton this season.

Ryan comes in at 30% this season.

Big Ben was at 52% last year yea, but that offense is stacked.

Palmer this year is 43%.

Eli is 27%.

I think with a more NFL style O which limits such pass attempts closer to the 30% range there's prolly be an increase of accuracy with Cook.

That's absolutely true. I don't want people to get me twisted on that, though. Cook does have accuracy issues. He's far too streaky. But I think solely looking at completion percentage tends to warp your perception. Especially if you ignore system. If he played in the average college system, his career completion percentage would likely be 3% to 5% higher. And if he played in one of the super QB friendly systems, it would likely be 7% to 10% higher. Wouldn't make him a more accurate QB, though. And, imo, it would make him a lesser prospect.