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The 49ers Have a QB Problem: Multiple Options Means SF Doesn't Have the Answer at All
Technically, the San Francisco 49ers' roster contains four quarterbacks. But on the Super Bowl-or-bust scale by which the 49ers should understandably be viewing their 2023 season, there's a chance that in reality they have none.
That's age-old in the NFL. The ol' "if you have multiple starters, you actually have no starters" expression.
But in this case, it strikes me that 49ers faithful might be under the impression they're better off under center than they actually are based on the odds.
Remember, most quarterbacks don't pan out in the NFL. Even the first round is a crapshoot for entry-level signal-callers. And really, San Francisco is still completely lacking true sustained track records at the professional level at the sport's most critical position.
Trade rumors have swirled around 2021 No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance. The team has reportedly fielded calls on Lance, and they clearly favor Brock Purdy. But there's reason to be concerned about both.
Lance, of course, barely saw the field in his first two seasons. Injuries are a big factor there, and it's extremely discouraging that the team already has him lower on the totem pole than a sophomore seventh-round pick.
And, of course, that's exactly what Purdy is. Mr. Irrelevant was passed on 261 times in the 2022 NFL Draft. And yes, the 49ers won all five of Purdy's regular-season starts while he posted a 107.3 passer rating in an astonishing rookie campaign, but that's a 170-pass sampling from a player who almost nobody had tape on prior to his unexpected run as a rookie starter.
That will no longer be the case in 2023. And on top of that, Purdy will be coming off a severely limited offseason as a result of a major elbow injury.
And yet, head coach Kyle Shanahan is talking BIG.
"We have two guys who are talented enough to be taken in the top five of the draft," he said this week, according to The Athletic's Tim Kawakami, "and we have another guy who played like it last year."
Oh, and then we have quarterbacks coach Jeff Christensen telling The Athletic's Matt Barrows that Lance has made a "substantial jump" as a passer this offseason.
The other quarterback to whom Shanahan is alluding is Sam Darnold, who has been the subject of much hype this offseason as well. Darnold was indeed a top-five pick five years ago, but he's now on his third NFL roster, presumably because he's got a sub-60 career completion percentage and a sub-80 career passer rating.
And yet, the media is talking BIG.
"He might be—can I say this—the most talented thrower of the football that the 49ers have ever had," NBC Sports' Matt Maiocco told KNBR earlier this month
But Darnold is about to turn 26 and has shown very few signs of being capable of putting that together at the NFL level.
The odds are certainly stacked against him. Ditto for Lance considering his struggles thus far and his failure to even nail down the No. 2 job despite the substantial investment the 49ers made in him just two years ago. And with unproven 30-year-old Brandon Allen likely just a camp arm, that really just leaves Purdy and his eight career regular-season and playoff starts, all of which were abetted by one of the most talented supporting casts in the league.
That dynamic will surely help again in 2023, which is why the 49ers remain a prime Super Bowl contender regardless of uncertainty under center. But we all know how difficult it is to win championships in this day and age without an elite quarterback—14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners had a Pro Bowl quarterback on their roster—and Purdy remains a longshot to become elite.
Diamonds can be found in the draft rough, but it's pretty rare for a quarterback to succeed as such a late-round selection.
"He's a scrappy runner but not dynamic enough to make up for his shortcomings as a passer," Lance Zierlein of NFL.com wrote of Purdy last offseason.
"One could argue that Purdy has no elite traits," wrote Pro Football Network's Ian Cummings.
"While Purdy does not have a starter's skill set, he could develop into being a solid pro backup," added Walter Football's Charlie Campbell.
Total number of undrafted quarterbacks who have entered the league this century who have served as the starter for 50 or more victories: 1 (Tony Romo).
Total number of seventh-round picks who have entered the league this century as quarterbacks who have served as the starter for 50 or more victories: 1 (Ryan Fitzpatrick).
Fitzpatrick comes from a group of 24. Hence those long odds.
The odds were better for Lance as a primo draft pick, of course, but that's no longer the case two years down the road while the team that traded up to draft him indicates serious concern.
Even still, only 11 of the 30 quarterbacks drafted in the top five this century have made multiple Pro Bowls. Those selections remain rolls of the dice. And thus far, both Lance and Darnold have done very little to indicate they aren't snake eyes.
At least the 49ers have given themselves several options, and it's entirely possible one of these guys defies the odds in 2023 and beyond. But there's also a strong possibility we're looking at a case of quantity over quality that will cost the 49ers dearly when it matters in the years to come.