If Welker Can Still Play, He Could Help the Rams
Posted by: Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2015/11/10/if-welker-can-still-play-he-could-help-the-rams/
Running low in their supply of wide receivers, the Rams have signed Wes Welker to replace the ineffective, enigmatic and suspended Stedman Bailey.
Three basic declarations up front:
Among the 32 NFL teams, the St. Louis Rams have received the lowest, poorest production from the slot receiver position. A potentially key component in the passing game has been a non-factor for the last two (or even three) seasons. And the Rams haven’t had a effective slot guy since Danny Amendola’s last season here, in 2012. Bailey has handled much of the slot duties for the Rams over the last two seasons but provided minimal impact.
Welker was arguably the NFL’s best slot receiver during his seasons with New England and Denver, catching more passes for more yards and touchdowns than anyone at the position. Of course, it helps to have Tom Brady and Peyton Manning distributing the passes. But with his smart reads, superb route running and sure hands, Welker was the ideal slot target for the two future Hall of Fame throwers.
If Welker is completely healthy and viable, and if he’s still quick out of the blocks, he can give the Rams a legitimate slot option for the first time since 2012.
Of course, Welker’s level of contribution depends on several factors. At 34, and out of work this season until now, Welker has to show he can still play. He has to get acclimated to the Rams’ offense. Offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti has to come up with effective and creative ways to utilize Welker — and that will be a challenge for an offense that’s as predictable as a Rams’ pre-snap penalty. And quarterback Nick Foles, who struggles with his accuracy, has to be on target if in fact Welker becomes that target.
I don’t know what Welker has left. And he’s alarmingly vulnerable to concussions, having suffered three of them over a nine-month period from November 2013 through August 2014. Welker was suspended for two games by the NFL at the start of the 2014 season for failing the league’s standard screening for performance-enhancing drugs. Welker’s production dropped in Denver last season; he caught 49 passes for 464 yards (9.5 yards per reception) and two touchdowns. It’s also true that Manning had many attractive receiving options to work with and didn’t need to depend on any one guy, including Welker.
These concerns and questions kept Welker at home where he’s helped care for his twins. Welker has had some workouts, most notably with the NY Giants, but didn’t find a landing spot until the Rams needed to fill a void. If Welker still has game, and can avoid injuries, he can make a difference — which really isn’t saying much considering the the Rams’ comically weak impact at slot receiver. Any decent slot receiver would upgrade the position in St. Louis. So Welker — even in a diminished state — has a very low standard to clear.
This signing is one of mutual desperation.
Welker wants to cling to what’s left of his career and avoid the inevitable retirement.
As for the Rams, they are in pathetic shape at slot receiver … and no, I’m not exaggerating.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Rams have attempted only 20 passes to their slot receivers this season. And the position has come up with 11 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. That’s unbelievable; only 11 catches and 103 yards through eight games at a position that’s a vital part of an NFL passing game.
Put it this way: There are 42 individual slot receivers that have posted more than the Rams’ team total of 103 yards.
And 20 individual receivers have more catches than the Rams’ total slot haul of 11 receptions.
Bailey — suspended for four games after flunking the league’s substance-abuse test for the second time in his career — saw the most action in the slot for the 2015 Rams. According to PFF he ran 113 slot routes but was targeted only 12 times, catching five passes for 68 yards and had two drops. Tavon Austin has been used some in the slot this season — with 42 routes — and has five catches for 30 yards and one TD.
Last season the Rams got 581 receiving yards and two touchdowns from the slot.
In 2013, the team slot totals were 570 yards, five TDs.
There hasn’t been a respectable slot receiver in St. Louis since Amendola caught 51 passes for 498 yards and three TDs in 2012.
Welker was a prolific slot receiver over an eight-year stretch (2007-2014) in Denver and New England, racking up 527 catches for 5,938 yards and 31 touchdowns. (Those are his slot numbers only.) Welker was frequently the go-to receiver on third down plays.
As we know the Rams are failing miserably at converting third downs. Their success rate of 23.7 is the worst by an NFL team since STATS LLC began tracking third-down conversion rates in 1972.
Welker was a chain mover in New England and Denver. Between 2007 and 2014, Welker caught 181 passes on third down, fourth most in the NFL over that time. And of the 181 receptions, 77.3 percent picked up a first down.
At this point I feel compelled to repeat something: those stats were compiled with Walker playing for offenses that were creative and innovative. And with Brady and Manning as his quarterbacks.
Whether Welker still has the knack and the skill for getting open is just one of the many questions that are hanging over his arrival. Another, which I’ve already cited, is wondering if the Rams will know what to do with Welker. That applies to Cignetti and Foles.
Welker wants to revive his career.
Or he wouldn’t have come here.
The Rams (4-4) are doing OK but aren’t the prime Super Bowl contender that Welker was shopping for.
So yeah, Welker is just as desperate as the team that just adopted him.
“The frustrating part sometimes is you look out there on the field and you see guys who are playing, and you’re like, ‘I should be playing,'” Welker recently told NFL.com. “That gets me a little bit. I love being at home with my kids, but at the same time, you have that itch and you’re looking out there and seeing how you can fit in with this team or that and there’s never really a perfect plan.”
Is Welker putting his health at risk? Speaking to NFL.com earlier this year, retired NFL cornerback Champ Bailey advised Welker to stay away and preserve his health.
“I don’t want Wes to play for my own personal reasons,” Bailey said, “I’ve seen him get concussions, it scares me. It’s a serious thing when you start talking about your head. For him to have to worry about that at a young age that he is now, he has to think about those years to come.
“I understand why he has that desire to play. He feels like he has things — he wants the ring, he’s been to two really good programs that should have gotten him a ring, and he didn’t get it. And he still has that hunger, I just don’t want to see it.”
Last offseason Welker was cleared for an NFL return by Seattle-based neurological specialist Dr. Stanley Herring. And obviously, Welker had no problem passing the Rams’ physical. So now the Rams will have a low-cost chance to take a look at Welker as he winds down a distinguished career highlighted by five 100-catch seasons, five Pro Bowls, two first-team All-Pro selections and two second-team All-Pro selections.
As long as Welker can get on the field and stay there, the Rams have a chance to cultivate a slot option that tops anyone they’ve utilized there over the last three seasons. And with his immense knowledge about playing wide receiver, Welker could conceivably school a talented young player like Austin and help Austin get better.
But we have to remember that Welker has entered a new world, one that doesn’t feature an elite quarterback, strategical brilliance or an evolved NFL passing attack. If Welker wants to put his his head and health on the line for this opportunity, it’s his call.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie