OL or WR? Looky here...

  • To unlock all of features of Rams On Demand please take a brief moment to register. Registering is not only quick and easy, it also allows you access to additional features such as live chat, private messaging, and a host of other apps exclusive to Rams On Demand.

Memphis Ram

Legend
Joined
Jun 26, 2010
Messages
6,668
He did pretty good when Reggie Wayne went out and he became the focus...

But Givens is no TY Hilton - Hilton isn't allergic to the endzone

Is Givens allergic to the endzone or has he not been targeted in the endzone/redzone? As stated before, in the endzone/redzone the go to targets have been the slot guys, the TEs, and the bigger WRs.

How many sure TD passes has Givens dropped? You can't score 'em if you ain't getting the opportunity.
 

Alan

Legend
Joined
Oct 22, 2013
Messages
9,765
Morning Memphis. :)
Or does he not get open enough to get targeted.
Just saying cause I haven't looked at any tape. I'm just speculating.
 

Memphis Ram

Legend
Joined
Jun 26, 2010
Messages
6,668
Morning Memphis. :)
Or does he not get open enough to get targeted.
Just saying cause I haven't looked at any tape. I'm just speculating.

Could be. But, it sure seems to me that Bradford and Co seem to know exactly where the ball is going at the snap most of the time.
 

Alan

Legend
Joined
Oct 22, 2013
Messages
9,765
That's a potential double edged sword. It could easily be a product of a lack of confidence by the OC, Bradford or both that they don't call his number very often.
 

mr.stlouis

Legend
Joined
Sep 7, 2011
Messages
6,454
Name
Main Hook
Does any one really give two shits about how many yards our receivers get:wtf:

Is that what is important now? We don't care a bout wins and losses so just give me a guy with individual stats for window dressing??????:bueller:

I agree, W's are all that matter.

With that said, Robinson would help us get more W's than any other player in the draft.
 
Joined
Aug 15, 2013
Messages
5,808
Here's some analysis. I looked the Pro Bowl appearances of Wide Receivers and Guards in the 5 games this decade and the number those picks were each drafted at. For UDFA's, I assumed the number 260, since drafts are over in the 250's. For WR Josh Gordon of Cleveland, I assumed the #39 pick that Cleveland gave up in 2013 for picking Gordon in the supplemental draft. I counted someone whether they were originally picked or a substitution, regardless of whether or not they played in the game.

The average pick of a Pro Bowl WR was #69. The average pick of a Pro Bowl G was #90.

When broken down to number of appearances in each range, there were 48 appearances of WRs and 35 apperances by Gs in the 2010 Pro Bowls.

The Top 10 draft picks account for 15/48 Pro Bowl appearances at WR (31.25%). The same range accounts for 1/35 (2.86%) appearance at G (and that one should be considered a fluke, as it's Leonard Davis, who was originally drafted to play tackle.)

The rest of the 1st round (picks 11-32) accounts for 9/48 apperances at WR (18.75%) and 12/35 appearances at G (34.29%). It should be noted here that none of these guards were drafted above #17 (Steve Hutchinson and Mike Iupati) and Logan Mankins at #32 accounts for 5 appearances.

Rounds 2 and 3 (selections 33-97 by last year's standards) gives us 12/48 appearances at WR (25%) and 10/35 appearances at G (28.57%).

Rounds 4 and 5 (selections 98-168 by last year's standards) gives us 5/48 appearances at WR (10.42%), 4 of which are Brandon Marshall, and 7/35 (20%) appearances at G.

Rounds 6 and 7 (selections 169-254 by last year's standards) gives 1/48 appearance at WR (2.08%) and 0 appearances at G.

Undrafted picks made 6/48 appearances at WR (12.5%) and 5/35 appearances at G (14.29%)

Note that percentages may not add up exactly 100% due to rounding.

Now, what this tells me that obviously, as pointed out, the success rate does peter out the longer you go... but while the Pro Bowl WRs have their biggest representation in the Top 10, Gs have their big representation in the late 1st and 2nd/3rd rounds. Thus, to me, this data backs my assertion all along that great guards can and often are picked later than great wide receivers.

Now left tackles are a different story obviously. But this discussion did not involve left tackles, but only whether it was easier to find elite WRs or elite Gs outside the top 10.

But on the other hand, once someone makes a spreadsheet, the argument has probably gotten too silly to continue. :p

If you want to check my data, you can download the spreadsheet here: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/31822673/WR vs G.xls

A slightly different take: Pro Bowl players drafted (or undrafted) over the last 5 years (I've included C under the heading inter O linemen but they're highlighted in red):

WR: A.J. Green 4th (x3)
Julio Jones 6th
Demaryius Thomas 22nd (x2)
Dez Bryant 24th

Josh Gordon (Suplemental) 2nd round
Alshon Jeffery 45th
Mike Wallace 84th

Antonio Brown 195th

Victor Cruz UD


Median draft position: 39th, median draft position including each appearance as a separate draft position (i.e. Green included 3 times) 23rd

Interior O linemen:
Michael Pouncey 15th
Michael Iupati 17th (x2)
Maurkice Pouncey 18th (x3)
Kyle Long 20th
Alex Mack 21st (x2)
Zane Beadles 45th
Max Unger 49th (x2)
Louis Vasquez 78th

Median draft position: 20.5th, median draft position including each appearance as a separate draft position 20th, median position of OG 32.5th and 20th.

Maybe it just takes interior O linemen longer to get recognised for their work, maybe there's been a change in drafting philosophy, or maybe I've just set the criteria in order to fit in with my own prejudice, I'm not sure.
 

Alan

Legend
Joined
Oct 22, 2013
Messages
9,765
Good stuff R&G.
What I get from that is you have a better chance of drafting a PB player below round one if you're not an interior O-line player and you have very little chance to get one below the second round if you are. I'm sure that I'm sure about that.
 

Memphis Ram

Legend
Joined
Jun 26, 2010
Messages
6,668
That's a potential double edged sword. It could easily be a product of a lack of confidence by the OC, Bradford or both that they don't call his number very often.

Yeah. I even wonder how often he's on the field during those opportunities. If I were running the show I'd go with the bigger guys and quicker slot types too as they provide the better matchup problems in that area.
 

Boffo97

Still legal in 17 states!
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Messages
5,278
Name
Dave
This analysis might mean something if the league were under the old CBA and the Pro Bowl wasn't merely a popularity contest. Under the new CBA we saw guards selected #7 & #10 overall last year.
Wow, that kind of hostile tone indicates I've definitely struck a nerve.

Sure, the Pro Bowl is a popularity contest. But at least this is a far more objective standard than just listing a bunch of people who one says are #1 WRs and another bunch who one says are elite guards. All that leads to is "Yuh huh!" "Nuh uh!" style arguing.

And as far as guards now being selected early under the new CBA, so what? Until those guards prove to be GOOD, they could still be mistakes. And were either of them tackles chosen as guards by teams that already had a LT?

And are you seriously making the counter point to what I'm arguing: That assuming equal talent and equal need, guards should be drafted at a level equal to or even exceeding wide receivers?
 

Memphis Ram

Legend
Joined
Jun 26, 2010
Messages
6,668
Wow, that kind of hostile tone indicates I've definitely struck a nerve.

Sure, the Pro Bowl is a popularity contest. But at least this is a far more objective standard than just listing a bunch of people who one says are #1 WRs and another bunch who one says are elite guards. All that leads to is "Yuh huh!" "Nuh uh!" style arguing.

And as far as guards now being selected early under the new CBA, so what? Until those guards prove to be GOOD, they could still be mistakes. And were either of them tackles chosen as guards by teams that already had a LT?

And are you seriously making the counter point to what I'm arguing: That assuming equal talent and equal need, guards should be drafted at a level equal to or even exceeding wide receivers?

Sorry. I didn't think I was being hostile at all. And it appears that the nerve stuck is your own because you probably spent a great deal of time on something that is so flawed.

I disagree that a popularity contest where fans, players, and the like vote for their favorite players is more objective. Oftentimes, better players are sitting on the sidelines because they are on losing teams receiving less publicity while other players, more known by the masses, have gotten voted in based upon what they have done in the past or being on a winning teams getting a lot of media attention.

And, under the old CBA, guards were rarely selected high due to the salary those choices commanded, thus skewing your data.

In the end, I say that whether it be Guard or WR or whatever, teams should select whom they deem to be the BPA.
 
Last edited:

Boffo97

Still legal in 17 states!
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Messages
5,278
Name
Dave
Sorry. I didn't think I was being hostile at all. And it's impossible to strike a nerve when the analysis is so flawed.
OK. Sure. No hostility there.

I disagree that a popularity contest where fans and teams vote for their favorite players is more objective. Oftentimes, better players are sitting on the sidelines because they are on losing teams receiving less publicity while other players more known by the masses have gotten voted in based upon what they have done in the past and not that particular season.
Like I said, I admit the Pro Bowl has problems. But when it's a case of many people selecting who they think the best are vs. one person doing so, many people is better. At least with the Pro Bowl list, we won't get into pointless debate over who belongs on the list and who does not.

And, under the old CBA guards were rarely selected high due to the salary those choices commanded, thus skewing your data.
And I think they were rarely selected high because good guards were more common, plus there are those (see the other thread for this) who believe that an elite guard vs. a good guard will not have as much impact on the quality of your team as a whole as much as other positions will in terms of elite vs. good. Sure, with the new CBA, we're seeing SOME guards picked early (though I'm not sure we're seeing the Ogden phenomenon people are pushing for), but we don't know yet whether that was the right decision.

In the end, I say that whether it be Guard or WR or whatever, teams should select whom they deem to be the BPA.
And I've said that if there's a huge talent difference between Robinson/Matthews and Watkins, I would support the former being picked. If roughly equal though, the need for Watkins (#1 WR, not just WR, don't forget) outweighs the luxury of taking a guard (which we can get later) who would be tackle (who we don't need right now) someday. Hopefully.

At least, that's my opinion. Yours is different, which is fine. Neither of us gets a vote anyway.
 

Faceplant

Still celebrating Superbowl LVI
Rams On Demand Sponsor
2023 ROD Pick'em Champion
Joined
Aug 11, 2010
Messages
9,597
If I am going by college careers, then I would take Stedman and Tavon before Watkins in any draft. That will send some of you into a tizzy, but it is only my opinion. Why anyone thinks Watkins is going to set the league on fire is beyond me. It really is. Sure, he's a good WR, and the league is RIDDLED with WRs that were superstars in college and are JAG at this level. WRs are the "shiny new toy" everyone clamors for in EVERY draft it seems. I agree with Snisher when they say they are fine at the WR position. They are, after all, paid to make those type of assessments.
 

Boffo97

Still legal in 17 states!
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Messages
5,278
Name
Dave
I agree with Snisher when they say they are fine at the WR position. They are, after all, paid to make those type of judgments.
And if they demonstrate that that's the way they feel on draft day, I'm fine with that. (Although I am worried if they draft Watkins, some people here will need new TVs.)

But this time of year, do you know how to tell if a GM or coach is lying? Check to see if their lips are moving.
 

Faceplant

Still celebrating Superbowl LVI
Rams On Demand Sponsor
2023 ROD Pick'em Champion
Joined
Aug 11, 2010
Messages
9,597
And if they demonstrate that that's the way they feel on draft day, I'm fine with that. (Although I am worried if they draft Watkins, some people here will need new TVs.)

But this time of year, do you know how to tell if a GM or coach is lying? Check to see if their lips are moving.

True enough. I will be fully behind whomever they draft. What choice do we have, haha. I was a huge Avery fan as soon as we drafted him.....even though I had to google the name just to find out who he was!:ROFLMAO:
 

Memphis Ram

Legend
Joined
Jun 26, 2010
Messages
6,668
OK. Sure. No hostility there.

Like I said, I admit the Pro Bowl has problems. But when it's a case of many people selecting who they think the best are vs. one person doing so, many people is better. At least with the Pro Bowl list, we won't get into pointless debate over who belongs on the list and who does not.

And I think they were rarely selected high because good guards were more common, plus there are those (see the other thread for this) who believe that an elite guard vs. a good guard will not have as much impact on the quality of your team as a whole as much as other positions will in terms of elite vs. good. Sure, with the new CBA, we're seeing SOME guards picked early (though I'm not sure we're seeing the Ogden phenomenon people are pushing for), but we don't know yet whether that was the right decision.

And I've said that if there's a huge talent difference between Robinson/Matthews and Watkins, I would support the former being picked. If roughly equal though, the need for Watkins (#1 WR, not just WR, don't forget) outweighs the luxury of taking a guard (which we can get later) who would be tackle (who we don't need right now) someday. Hopefully.

At least, that's my opinion. Yours is different, which is fine. Neither of us gets a vote anyway.

Again there really isn't any hostility to all. In fact it's funny to me why you would think that there would be. We are just talking about football here. But, sorry if I've hurt your feelings.

Anyway, the Pro Bowl popularity contest is all about debates as to who gets on it or not, in itself. So why wouldn't the same happen in this discussion of your analysis?

QB, LT, Pass rusher, shut down type cover CB. Those are and have been considered the most important & most difficult positions/players to acquire for years now. With that in mind, those players usually got paid more and had their draft stock elevated over and above other positions on draft day. With this, under the old CBA and high $$$ contracts, teams typically went after those guys with the higher draft choices whether they were worthy of the selections or not (Example: I don't believe that the Rams or anyone thought Jason Smith was really the 2nd best player in his draft class). It screwed up your teams salary negotiations otherwise and had cap implications. ie. it's a FAR harder negotiation to re-sign your QB, LT, Pass rusher, shut down type CB, when your WR, G, S, or whomever is making more money than what you are offering them.

Your take on Robinson/Matthews vs. Watkins will always be flawed to me as you continue to focus upon the 2014 season and view the former as only Guards when they have the potential to be both guards AND OTs. Again, the 2014 draft is not just about the 2014 season.
 
Last edited:

mr.stlouis

Legend
Joined
Sep 7, 2011
Messages
6,454
Name
Main Hook
Fellas, we have a lot of speed. Giving Stacy and Sam some studs up front will work wonders.

We draft Robonson and Gabe Jackson/Yankey, we're legit contenders. This could be our year with some luck in health.
 

Memphis Ram

Legend
Joined
Jun 26, 2010
Messages
6,668
BTW, as probably stated in this thread or in others, the majority of WRs that typically go very high in the draft are the ones that are rare physical freaks. And, IMO, Watkins simply doesn't fit that category. Mike Evans is a far better fit there.
 

Boffo97

Still legal in 17 states!
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Messages
5,278
Name
Dave
Again there really isn't any hostility to all. In fact it's funny to me why you would think that there would be. We are just talking about football here. But, sorry if I've hurt your feelings.

Anyway, the Pro Bowl popularity contest is all about debates as to who gets on it or not, in itself. So why wouldn't the same happen in this discussion?
Oh, my feelings aren't hurt at all. I just find it funny how vehement you were from word one over this. But fine, you don't think my study here has objective validity (even though to me, all it did was back the conclusion that was already common football sense anyway). I think it has more objective validity than just a list of who one person considers #1 WRs. It's fine to disagree.

QB, LT, Pass rusher, shut down type cover CB. Those are and have been considered the most important & most difficult positions/players to acquire for years now. With that in mind, those players usually got paid more and had their draft stock elevated over and above other positions on draft day. With this, under the old CBA and high $$$ contracts, teams typically went after those guys with the higher draft choices whether they were worthy of the selections or not. It screwed up your teams salary negotiations otherwise and had cap implications. ie. it's a FAR harder negotiation to re-sign your QB, LT, Pass rusher, shut down type CB, when your WR, G, S, or whomever is making more money than what you are offering them.
I disagree and still think it's about impact. Elite QBs, LTs, pass rushers, CBs and WRs do more for your team than elite Gs. I do admit that the new CBA does make it easier to take a guard early if you don't think there's better options. For example, if the Rams DON'T think Watkins is all that (or that Evans also is and he'll be there at #13), it's hard to see what other options they'll have besides the G/T selection. All I see is a DE they don't need, a QB they don't need, an OLB they don't need or just trading out of the top 10, stocking up hopefully very good players rather than 1 elite player.
 
Last edited:

Boffo97

Still legal in 17 states!
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Messages
5,278
Name
Dave
Fellas, we have a lot of speed. Giving Stacy and Sam some studs up front will work wonders.

We draft Robonson and Gabe Jackson/Yankey, we're legit contenders. This could be our year with some luck in health.
It's not about having speed. It's about having a #1 type that can really make Sam shine. I think we can get one and still fix the OL giving him the time to find that #1. But that aside...

I can understand wanting one of the premium guards (Yankey/Su'a-Filo/Jackson or some combination thereof) But wanting one of them AND Robinson/Matthews doesn't make sense to me.

We have Saffold and Barksdale as well. Between them and Ya'a-Son and Robinhews, we have three positions they're going to play: Left Guard, Right Guard and Right Tackle. That means you're sending one of your proven players or high draft picks to the bench.
 

Memphis Ram

Legend
Joined
Jun 26, 2010
Messages
6,668
Oh, my feelings aren't hurt at all. I just find it funny how vehement you were from word one over this. But fine, you don't think my study here has objective validity (even though to me, all it did was back the conclusion that was already common football sense anyway). I think it has more objective validity than just a list of who one person considers #1 WRs. It's fine to disagree.

I disagree and still think it's about impact. Elite QBs, LTs, pass rushers, CBs and WRs do more for your team than elite Gs. I do admit that the new CBA does make it easier to take a guard early if you don't think there's better options. For example, if the Rams DON'T think Watkins is all that (or that Evans also is and he'll be there at #13), it's hard to see what other options they'll have besides the G/T selection. All I see is a DE they don't need, a QB they don't need or just trading out of the top 10, stocking up hopefully very good players rather than 1 elite player.

Ok. Sure. Your feelings weren't hurt over my discounting an analysis that you believe was common sense football and perhaps took you some time to complete. Wasn't vehement at all. Just pointed out it was flawed and you took it to heart. And again for that I'm sorry.

And sorry again for simply not lumping in WRs to the QB, LT, Pass Rushers and CBs Block like you have here. I don't share that opinion, nor do I believe that NFL teams do by their actions.

To me, common sense says that an elite lineman at any position makes far more of a difference than a a good lineman as he makes it much easier for the rest of his teammates to block for his running back and protect the guy responsible to get the football to a WR who may or may not get about 7-10 opportunities a game to make a play.

Peyton Manning had weapons all over the place in the last Super Bowl. But, his good Oline didn't give him enough time to get the ball to them to make a bit of difference in the game. But, I wonder what would have happened if he had an elite Olineman or two blocking for him. Hmmm...
 
Last edited: