1maGoh
Hall of Fame
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2013
- Messages
- 3,957
I didn't mean to say that it wasn't less valuable as just that the idea that it's equal to a round lower the current year is illogical.It's devalued because, for the coming year you take a loss. In this case a good pass rusher on a defense that needs talent now. A second round pick this year would be more valuable to immediately the void created by losing Ford. Having to wait a full year to get a return is clearly not as good of an option. So to quantify it, it's like a third round pick, because they are short for a year.
Sure, it could be the same quality player but by your account a second round pick five years from now is just as valuable. It's not.
For one, the formula falls apart as soon as the draft is over. There would be a whole year to go, but you can't say the pick is equal to a third round pick if only we had it last week. For example, the Rams tested a third for Fowler. It's ridiculous to say the 2019 third round pick is equal to a second round pick in 2018, because the time to use it is passed. It has its own unique value to the organization.
And it's the same for the other picks during or before the draft. If I'm trading assets I don't care about, taking a 2 next year if better than a 3 this year. The traded player may not be a part of this year's plans anyway, so I'll take a higher pick next year rather than the immediate gratification of getting them this year. Also, player contacts go up every year, but rookies are still extra cheap. Delaying the pick actually saves me money by giving me more cheap assets when player contracts are higher and the salary cap had increased, which maximizes my another to spend on free agency.
There's a "cost" to it for sure, but saying next year's X round pick is equal to this year's X-1 round pick isn't taking all the data into account. It works ok for a trade value chart for picks to picks trades, but falls apart when scrutinized or used for 7th round future picks.