https://nflpickwatch.com/picks/straight/expert/nfl
Rams 81%/Cowboys 19%
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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2018-nfl-divisional-round-spread-overunder-picks
DALLAS COWBOYS (+7.5) AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
Prediction:
Rams 29-22 (Cowboys cover)
Point: This strikes me as very similar to the Thursday Night Football game between the Cowboys and the Saints, where our numbers pointed towards a Dallas (+7/+7.5) cover despite what we thought were our best intuitions. For example,
Dak Prescott has the worst negatively-graded throw rate among quarterbacks remaining in the playoffs (15.2%), and while
Jared Goff isn’t
that much better at 13.3%, the Rams have an edge at the most important position in all of team sports. This would not have been a game I would have liked on first blush.
For the Cowboys to make up the offensive discrepancy, their defense will have to perform as they did against
Drew Brees and company on that Thursday night, where they held the Saints to 111 yards through the air and 65 on the ground. Their efficiency on early-down runs defensively (allowing only a 37% success rate) and the speed of their linebackers
Leighton Vander Esch and
Jaylon Smith matches up really well with what the Rams want to do, which is run play-action passes and give the ball to
Todd Gurley out of 11 personnel.
Such a situation stymied the Rams offense on a Sunday night in Chicago, and while lessons were likely learned from that outing, it’s difficult for even the brightest football mind to make wholesale mid-season adjustments to an offense missing one of it’s best playmakers in
Cooper Kupp and nursing an injury to its top ball carrier in Todd Gurley.
Lastly, something needs to be said about home-field advantage in this spot. The Rams are coming off of a bye, which is worth something with respect to the spread, but they are playing in a temporary stadium – which we know does not afford the kind of home-field advantage a permanent stadium does.
Secondly, crowd noise (and its effect on referees) could very well be on the side of the Dallas Cowboys as opposed to the Los Angeles Rams, given how well their fan base travels and the relatively slow pace on which the latter has taken over the city as their own. While I like the Rams to win this game, I think more than a touchdown is simply too much to lay in this spot.
Counterpoint: The Cowboys are pretty lucky to be here. They escaped the Seahawks, who decided to play with two downs tied behind their backs and only made the playoffs because the NFC East forgot when the season started. Perhaps we’ve convinced ourselves that Sean McVay spent the last week on the road helping all his friends get head coaching gigs. The difference between the Rams passing attack and the Dak Prescott-led cohort is sizeable, Goff and Co. rank third in expected points added per clean pocket dropback, while the Boys rank 17th.
The Rams also have one of the best running backs in the NFL. That being said, as good as
C.J. Anderson has been,
Aaron Donald is the non-quarterback that has a chance to ruin this game for the Cowboys. Cowboys guard
Connor Williams has allowed pressure on 9% of his pass-blocks since week 13 (fourth-worst among guards), expect
Ndamukong Suh to eat up
Zack Martin and force Williams into 1-on-1’s with A-A-Ron. From coach, to quarterback, to defensive stalwart, the Cowboys have some very real hurdles if they want to keep Jerry happy.