Covid 19 thread

[nighttrain]

good luck Dog, hope for the best for your family
train

 

[SWAdude]

I have been following you Dog. So sorry about Emma. Sounds like she is on the mend.

That is such the scary thing about this particular virus. How easy it spreads.

I too hope Alan gets tested. We all need to know where this thing is and where it is not. We all know kids though.

Sorry you and yours are going through this.

Being in Emmas industry, It looks pretty damn dire. I can tell being an airline crew member for 34 years, you really never know how these things play out. Often for the good when it looks impossible. The airline business has become the back bone for our economy. Hence why we are considered an "essential service". This new stimulus package just past put like 30 billion in grants for the airlines with a caveat that you can't furlough till either the end of August or September. The bill got shoved around so much I couldn't keep track.

Hopefully by then there will be anti-virals that will not only flatten this curve, but squish it. People feel a need to get places that they couldn't if it wasn't for the airline business.

Take care buddy.

And good luck to us all.

 

[fearsomefour]

4/07.

 

[IowaRam]

nice timing with the new quarters

 

[12intheBox]

I see there’s a whole conversation going on here, which I am not following, that seems to center around numbers.

I’m gonna drop this here since this is where I’ve been posting on it, Despite the parallel
conversations.

My wife’s son Alan now appears to have all the symptoms. She’s pretty beat up and thinking irrationally, like it’s all Emma’s fault for insisting on taking the job and Delta. (a whole side story about how Emma all too eagerly finds other things to do besides take care of her kids, a typical mother in law stance to take)

Anyway- Alan’s being difficult, refusing to go get tested on the pretext that “It doesn’t matter, the doctors told us we were all going to get it anyway” and of course that is really taking its toll on the wife. Meanwhile, Emma is thinking irrationally as well, insisting she is ready to get retested so she can get her negative result and return to work. Except for one thing- she has zero seniority and 90% of flights are of course halted.

Crazy kids these days. <shrug> I’m hoping clearer minds prevail in the next 24 hrs or so.

Thankfully, there are health care workers checking in with them daily. And it appears the health department is also investigating where all Emma has been, frequently calling and requesting details of her last week flying and where she ate, slept, etc....

wish us luck- it’s not a very good feeling knowing the kids are all sitting ducks waiting for their turn.

Oh man. It is just starting to get to the point for me where I know people fairly well who have it - and I just had the first person I knew die (although I didn't know him as well).

I hope Alan recovers and clearer minds do, in fact, prevail.

 

[…..]

I have been following you Dog. So sorry about Emma. Sounds like she is on the mend.

That is such the scary thing about this particular virus. How easy it spreads.

I too hope Alan gets tested. We all need to know where this thing is and where it is not. We all know kids though.

Sorry you and yours are going through this.

Being in Emmas industry, It looks pretty damn dire. I can tell being an airline crew member for 34 years, you really never know how these things play out. Often for the good when it looks impossible. The airline business has become the back bone for our economy. Hence why we are considered an "essential service". This new stimulus package just past put like 30 billion in grants for the airlines with a caveat that you can't furlough till either the end of August or September. The bill got shoved around so much I couldn't keep track.

Hopefully by then there will be anti-virals that will not only flatten this curve, but squish it. People feel a need to get places that they couldn't if it wasn't for the airline business.

Take care buddy.

And good luck to us all.

Thanks and good luck to you as well. The ideal situation being that this thing runs its course, we come out safe and sound, we all get together once again for good times and cheer in the name of our Rams.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

'Pandemic' scientist says his team has discovered potential cure for COVID-19

'Pandemic' scientist says his team has discovered potential cure for COVID-19

Dr. Jacob Glanville's team took antibodies used to neutralize SARS and used technology in their lab to adapt them to recognize COVID-19.

www.cbs8.com

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Nobel laureate predicts US will have much faster coronavirus recovery than expected

Nobel laureate predicts US will have much faster coronavirus recovery than expected

Stanford University biophysicist Michael Levitt correctly calculated China would get through the worst of its coronavirus epidemic earlier than most health experts estimated. Now he sees …

thehill.com

 

[WestCoastRam]

Dad hid coronavirus symptoms to visit maternity ward after wife gave birth

Strong Hospital will begin taking visitors' temperatures following an incident in which a man hid his illness so he could join his expectant wife.

www.democratandchronicle.com

 

[thirteen28]

Serious downward trend in NYC (scroll down to chart titled "Daily Counts" where you can view total cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

www1.nyc.gov

So why are we being told the worst is yet to come? Anyone besides me want to question the basis of that?

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Serious downward trend in NYC (scroll down to chart titled "Daily Counts" where you can view total cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

www1.nyc.gov

So why are we being told the worst is yet to come? Anyone besides me want to question the basis of that?

maybe cause the worst is yet to come?

It also has a disclaimer:
“Due to delays in reporting,
recent data are incomplete.”

 

[thirteen28]

maybe cause the worst is yet to come?

It also has a disclaimer:
“Due to delays in reporting,
recent data are incomplete.”

Yes, I noticed that too. However, as I've looked at this several times today, the only place the data has changed is in the last date - 3/31, which is today. Nothing has changed for 3/30 or earlier on any of them, and I first checked this about 11 hours ago. So dates before today are probably pretty much set or will change only on the margins. The trend is still unmistakably and decisively downward.

So what is the basis of "the worst is yet to come" argument?

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Yes, I noticed that too. However, as I've looked at this several times today, the only place the data has changed is in the last date - 3/31, which is today. Nothing has changed for 3/30 or earlier on any of them, and I first checked this about 11 hours ago. So dates before today are probably pretty much set or will change only on the margins. The trend is still unmistakably and decisively downward.

So what is the basis of "the worst is yet to come" argument?

On the cynical-side - I would say that they are predicting the worst so when it lands under they can claim victory

 

[thirteen28]

On the cynical-side - I would say that they are predicting the worst so when it lands under they can claim victory

Now that's one possible explanation I could accept.

Either way, there seems to be a systemic over-projection of the numbers relative to the reality of what we're seeing, and worse yet, it does not appear that the models are being updated for new data.

 

[Akrasian]

So what is the basis of "the worst is yet to come" argument?

NYC has been quarantined for a while. Much of the rest of the country has not been.

I went to Walmart yesterday for free pickup outside ($30 minimum. easy to reach) of some necessities - eggs, fruits, vegetables, cheese, condiments, vitamins. The parking lot was full with the inside presumably jammed.

It's things like that, with so many people not taking it seriously or being foolish that makes me wonder if it will get worse - especially with large numbers likely exposed already but asymptomatic.

A slight downward trend in the worst hit area that has been taking fairly extreme measures for a while doesn't change that.

 

[dieterbrock]

Serious downward trend in NYC (scroll down to chart titled "Daily Counts" where you can view total cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

www1.nyc.gov

So why are we being told the worst is yet to come? Anyone besides me want to question the basis of that?

Downward trend? 75k in new affected and over 330 fatalities today. Both are highest totals yet.

 

[thirteen28]

NYC has been quarantined for a while. Much of the rest of the country has not been.

I went to Walmart yesterday for free pickup outside ($30 minimum. easy to reach) of some necessities - eggs, fruits, vegetables, cheese, condiments, vitamins. The parking lot was full with the inside presumably jammed.

It's things like that, with so many people not taking it seriously or being foolish that makes me wonder if it will get worse - especially with large numbers likely exposed already but asymptomatic.

A slight downward trend in the worst hit area that has been taking fairly extreme measures for a while doesn't change that.

I wouldn't call it a slight downward trend. It's actually a pretty solid and significant trend. On March 24th, new cases were at 3209. ON March 30th, they were at 1241 - almost 2000 case drop, or about 2/3 drop from what it was on that date.

My real point is that:

a) the projections from models have wildly overstated the actual numbers; and
b) even as new data comes in, the models are not being adjusted downward to reflect the reality therein. And yet it is those models upon which we are making policy, not the changing data.

A couple of other things to keep in mind:

1) NYC has/had more international visitors than any other city in the U.S.;
2) Queens, the hardest hit borough, has more intergenerational households than any other borough, which gives it something in common with Wuhan, the Lombardy region of Italy, and the Madrid area in Spain - also epicenters. Maybs, just maybe isolating young healthy people who were likely unknown carriers to be quarantined with older, more vulnerable carriers wasn't the most well thought out idea after all.

 

[thirteen28]

Downward trend? 75k in new affected and over 330 fatalities today. Both are highest totals yet.

Where are you talking about? The link I posted is for NYC alone, they are reporting 54 new cases (which could grow), 67 new hospitalizations, and 23 new deaths.

A week ago those numbers were 3213, 656, and 74 respectively (with deaths peaking at 136 on 3/29). NYC alone has only had 41k cases cumulative, so I'm not sure where you get the 75k and 330 numbers from, but that's not what they are reporting.

 

[GBRam15]

View: https://www.facebook.com/Rams/videos/158690972055015/