Covid 19 thread

[thirteen28]

View: https://www.facebook.com/Rams/videos/158690972055015/

Man, that stiff-arm was a thing of beauty!

 

[XXXIVwin]

I wouldn't call it a slight downward trend. It's actually a pretty solid and significant trend. On March 24th, new cases were at 3209. ON March 30th, they were at 1241 - almost 2000 case drop, or about 2/3 drop from what it was on that date.

My real point is that:

a) the projections from models have wildly overstated the actual numbers; and
b) even as new data comes in, the models are not being adjusted downward to reflect the reality therein. And yet it is those models upon which we are making policy, not the changing data.

A couple of other things to keep in mind:

1) NYC has/had more international visitors than any other city in the U.S.;
2) Queens, the hardest hit borough, has more intergenerational households than any other borough, which gives it something in common with Wuhan, the Lombardy region of Italy, and the Madrid area in Spain - also epicenters. Maybs, just maybe isolating young healthy people who were likely unknown carriers to be quarantined with older, more vulnerable carriers wasn't the most well thought out idea after all.

“Things are looking up in NYC!” doesn’t seem like a point that needs to be made right now.

 

[thirteen28]

“Things are looking up in NYC!” doesn’t seem like a point that needs to be made right now.

Why? How is fewer people getting sick a bad thing? How is fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths a bad thing?

If NYC is turning the corner, is that not a good thing? Please explain.

 

[dieterbrock]

Where are you talking about? The link I posted is for NYC alone, they are reporting 54 new cases (which could grow), 67 new hospitalizations, and 23 new deaths.

A week ago those numbers were 3213, 656, and 74 respectively (with deaths peaking at 136 on 3/29). NYC alone has only had 41k cases cumulative, so I'm not sure where you get the 75k and 330 numbers from, but that's not what they are reporting.

NY data day over day

 

[dieterbrock]

Infuriating

View: https://twitter.com/apbenven/status/1244710354061529088

 

[XXXIVwin]

Why? How is fewer people getting sick a bad thing? How is fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths a bad thing?

If NYC is turning the corner, is that not a good thing? Please explain.

Yes, of course “fewer ppl being sick is a good thing.”

But your emphasis on supposedly “positive” casualty numbers seems to fit into your overarching concern about relaxing “some” of the social distancing guidelines for the sake of economics. You have written many posts about “not wanting the cure to be worse than the disease.”

Here’s a quote from you just a few days ago:

“I just don't think the empirical data we actually have now - related to both the virus as well as the unemployment numbers, the effects thereof, and other secondary effects, can support shutting things down into May. The various parts of the country only started implementing these lockdowns in the past two weeks or so, and look what we already have - a 2% jump in unemployment. If we go to May as you suggest, that number will get much, much, bigger, and will dwarf any impact of the virus even if we had done nothing.”

—————

Wow. “Dwarf any impact of the virus even if we had done nothing?” Just wow.

We have strongly different opinions on this subject, and rather than getting drawn into a prolonged discussion about it, I’d rather just say we can agree to disagree.

 

[kurtfaulk]

remember, new deaths are a couple of weeks behind the showing symptoms stage. in theory the death rate will keep rising even if new cases are decreasing. for two or three more weeks one would think.

.

 

[12intheBox]

3/31/2020

801,400 confirmed
38,714 dead

4.8% mortality rate

4/1/2020

877,422 confirmed
43,537 dead

4.9% mortality rate

 

[CeeZar]

remember, new deaths are a couple of weeks behind the showing symptoms stage. in theory the death rate will keep rising even if new cases are decreasing. for two or three more weeks one would think.

.

There are a lot more people on hydroxychloroquine. Hopefully it will be useful on a decent percentage of patients to cut down on both the hospitalization and death counts.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Gilead begins UK trials of COVID-19 drug remdesivir

Gilead begins UK trials of COVID-19 drug remdesivir -

Gilead has begun testing its COVID-19 coronavirus antiviral remdesivir in the UK, announcing plans to trial the drug in patients in England and Scotland.

pharmaphorum.com

 

[thirteen28]

NY data day over day
View attachment 35119

Can you provide an actual link to that? I provided a link directly to the NYC Dept of health (Main page here, virus #'s here) and those numbers are day by day numbers (not cumulative).

The numbers you are posting look like cumulative and appear to cover the entire state. The state numbers for NY can be found here.

For convenience, here's a screencap:

Cumulative numbers only give you totals, they don't give you trends. The day by day data, from the NYC dept. of health, indeed shows a significant downward trend in new cases, new hospitalizations, and new deaths. Nothing out there showed yesterday or any day of 75k new cases in NYC in a single day. As of 5 PM yesterday, NYC had a cumulative total of just over 41k confirmed cases.

 

[thirteen28]

I’d rather just say we can agree to disagree.

Fair enough.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Doctor in Netflix’s ‘Pandemic’ says he discovered potential coronavirus cure

Doctor in Netflix’s ‘Pandemic’ says he discovered potential coronavirus cure

A San Francisco doctor featured in the Netflix documentary “Pandemic” announced that he and his team have discovered a potential coronavirus cure — which will now be tested by the US military…

www.google.com

 

[thirteen28]

Boston Medical Center furloughs 700 employees, 10% of hospital’s workforce

BMC President Kate Walsh told employees in an email the cutbacks are due to a sudden and significant decrease in revenue, The Boston Globe reported.

www.masslive.com

Coronavirus in Ohio: Job woes in health care as 700 Mercy Health workers face furlough

The Ohio Hospital Association is still collecting data from members but estimate an impact of $1.2 billion a month.

www.cincinnati.com

https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article241565211.html

Williamson Medical Center furloughing nearly 200 employees

During the coronavirus pandemic, Williamson Medical Center announced it will furlough around 200 employees from the hospital.

www.tennessean.com

Kansas hospital cuts pay as coronavirus strains providers

The coronavirus has led to an increase in the cost for supplies and a sharp drop in the number of patients seeking routine and non-emergency care.

www.kmbc.com

Man, that's an awful lot of health care workers not going to work considering our hospitals are supposedly being overrun, or are approaching capacity. I realize that some of these hospitals may not be in harder hit areas, but couldn't some of these workers be temporarily re-assigned to those areas where hospitals are allegedly overrun?

 

[WestCoastRam]

Malaria Drug Helps Virus Patients Improve, in Small Study (Published 2020)

A group of moderately ill people were given hydroxychloroquine, which appeared to ease their symptoms quickly, but more research is needed.

www.nytimes.com

I'm not big on touting things without empirical data to back them up and HC seemed to have more "hopes and prayers" behind it than raw data but I'm more than willing to change my mind when the data changes. A small sign that there's data to support this treatment and not just anecdotes. Granted, study is from China but I am less inclined to believe things like their death counts and total cases than small case trials like this.

 

[thirteen28]

Malaria Drug Helps Virus Patients Improve, in Small Study (Published 2020)

A group of moderately ill people were given hydroxychloroquine, which appeared to ease their symptoms quickly, but more research is needed.

www.nytimes.com

I'm not big on touting things without empirical data to back them up and HC seemed to have more "hopes and prayers" behind it than raw data but I'm more than willing to change my mind when the data changes. A small sign that there's data to support this treatment and not just anecdotes. Granted, study is from China but I less inclined to believe things like their death counts and total cases than small case trials like this.

I linked this on another post the other day, but most people here just ignored it or glossed over it:

Dr. Vladimir Zelenko has now treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak [UPDATES] - Tech Startups

April 11 Update: A new research study reveals that COVID-19 attacks hemoglobin in red blood cells, rendering it incapable of transporting oxygen. In the conclusion, researchers found that chloroquine could prevent the virus attacking the hemoglobin in the red blood cells. Last Wednesday, we...

techstartups.com

699 treated is starting to get into statistically significant territory. And that is here in NY.

A French doctor has done two studies as well, both with about 80 patients, and both with very high success rates. Based on those the French govt. reversed course and allowed the drug to be used to treat cases of COVID-19.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Where are you talking about? The link I posted is for NYC alone, they are reporting 54 new cases (which could grow), 67 new hospitalizations, and 23 new deaths.

A week ago those numbers were 3213, 656, and 74 respectively (with deaths peaking at 136 on 3/29). NYC alone has only had 41k cases cumulative, so I'm not sure where you get the 75k and 330 numbers from, but that's not what they are reporting.

I think you missed this disclaimer:

Due to delays in reporting,
recent data are incomplete.

 

[dieterbrock]

Can you provide an actual link to that? I provided a link directly to the NYC Dept of health (Main page here, virus #'s here) and those numbers are day by day numbers (not cumulative).

The numbers you are posting look like cumulative and appear to cover the entire state. The state numbers for NY can be found here.

For convenience, here's a screencap:

View attachment 35126

Cumulative numbers only give you totals, they don't give you trends. The day by day data, from the NYC dept. of health, indeed shows a significant downward trend in new cases, new hospitalizations, and new deaths. Nothing out there showed yesterday or any day of 75k new cases in NYC in a single day. As of 5 PM yesterday, NYC had a cumulative total of just over 41k confirmed cases.

New York

Cases, testing, hospitalization, outcomes, long-term-care, and race and ethnicity data for New York, plus data sources, notes, and grade.

covidtracking.com

Cuomo was just on, NYS is up to 84k infected and sadly, 391 people in NYS died between Tuesday to this morning alone.

N.Y.C. Virus Death Toll Nears 1,400 as a Key Date Looms (Published 2020)

Mayor de Blasio has often said April 5 was a “demarcation line” in the coronavirus fight. Now it is just days away, and supplies are still badly needed.

www.nytimes.com

Any report or assumption that there is a slow down of any type in the NYC area is completely false.

It’s getting worse each day at the moment and we are just hoping for some grace here.

 

[thirteen28]

I think you missed this disclaimer:

Due to delays in reporting,
recent data are incomplete.

I already addressed that in another post upthread.

Dieter's post, responding to mine, stated (or at least appeared to state, given the way it was worded) that there were 75,000 new cases in NYC in a single day. That's more than the cumulative number of cases that NYC had reported as of yesterday at 5:00 PM at the time of my posting (around 41,000 total at the time). If you want to argue that the numbers jumped from 41000 to about 116,000 in NYC in a single day, show your work.

 

[bluecoconuts]

I already addressed that in another post upthread.

Dieter's post, responding to mine, stated (or at least appeared to state, given the way it was worded) that there were 75,000 new cases in NYC in a single day. That's more than the cumulative number of cases that NYC had reported as of yesterday at 5:00 PM at the time of my posting (around 41,000 total at the time). If you want to argue that the numbers jumped from 41000 to about 116,000 in NYC in a single day, show your work.

I see that now, you just simply decided it didn't count because it hasn't been updated yet, so therefore it must be complete? It doesn't work that way, that's not how you analyze data. If they are having delays in reporting then you need to wait until they get the numbers. Especially if you're going to be making claims that seem to indicate the opposite of what the data had been saying and what it's been saying elsewhere.