Post 3 of 3
The other huge mistake IMHO was the reopening of several states without following the Centers for Disease Control guidelines. Yes, people can debate endlessly about this, and say that “some” CDC guidelines were followed for reopening. But obviously not enough were.
Sometimes I truly wonder if people understand the basic principles behind the CDC guidelines. (Frankly, I myself didn’t really understand the basic principles back in March and April, but I do now.)
In the early days, our goal was to “flatten the curve.” This was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Were we largely successful at “flattening the curve”? Yes!
But once we managed to successfully “flatten the curve”, we should have adhered to the CDC’s NEW goal BEFORE reopening: “crush the curve to near baseline.” This discipline to “crush the curve to near baseline” is where the EU succeeded and the USA failed. (Again, I am NOT criticizing all the USA’s brave front-line workers. I am just heartbroken by the spectacular failure of our leadership.) There were several different recommendations, but one of the KEY guidelines was to have a full 14-day period of consecutive declining cases BEFORE re-opening. And many states chose to ignore this advice.
As every day goes by, the failure of the USA (as compared to the EU) becomes more and more shocking and disturbing. Testing in the EU is very widespread and comparable to the USA. But when it comes to assessing which region has had more success in “preventing new cases”, this graph is irrefutable:
The EU has about 3,700 new cases per day, and that figure has been stable for almost 2 months. Meanwhile, in the USA, new cases have zoomed up to 40,000 per day, then 50,000, and soon 60,000, with no end in sight.
The analogy is to battling a wildfire. The whole point of is
to suppress it enough so that SMALL outbreaks are containable. With small outbreaks (‘brushfires’), we are able to do contract tracing and isolation of cases. But when the outbreaks spike (‘raging fire’), we lose our ability to contain it. The most successful countries in the EU did this. And many of the worst-hit states in the USA did not.
Have fatalities caught up with the exploding new cases? No, miraculously they have not, yet. (I have read several articles about the discrepancies between fatality rates and new cases.) But in the past, the trend has been that once hospitals in major urban areas start to strain with overflow, we tend to see a disturbing spike in fatalities.
Just today, Florida absolutely shattered the record for most cases by any state in a single day, with 15,299 new cases. Most disturbingly, the test positivity rate in Florida has jumped to nearly 20% (it’s at 19.6 %).
As I write this, I realize I am running out of gas and not explaining my case for “lack of adherence to CDC Guidelines” as well as I’d like. If some other poster wants to fill in the gaps, please go right ahead.
But the bottom line is that battling a viral pandemic adheres closely to the analogy of battling a wildfire. It’s not “political”. It’s just common sense, science, and experience. There really isn’t a big mystery about what works and what doesn’t.
Again, I’m sorry to be so blunt, but many states (most notably AZ, TX, and FL) willfully ignored our own CDC Guidelines about re-opening. And now they are on the verge of paying a horrific price for it.
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In closing, I’m glad that we are all united in our love for the Rams. But for me personally, I just can’t handle it that there isn’t more consensus on our battle against this pandemic. On a nationwide level, so much of our debates seem like they SHOULD be about science and common sense. But somehow, we Americans have skittered away into bizarre and unnecessary politicized debates.
So guys, please continue to try your damndest to be civil while you disagree. I know sometimes it’s really hard. As for me, I am gonna TRY to avoid this thread in the future, because I frankly find it too painful to discuss.
Peace out to all, and
GO RAMS
Always enjoy reading your posts. Cheers.
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