Covid 19 thread

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CoachAllred

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And THAT is a good thing IMO. We're not going to move past this with the entire world hiding in their houses. If we want to get back to normal it's going to require enough people getting the virus and creating a buffer of immune non-vectors so that it will die down.

If we all hide in our houses for 2x years the virus will still be waiting, this thing is not going away. So let's face it. Let's fuckin party. (y)

Merlin, I think what you are describing is what's called the "herd effect" and I agree 100%
The idea is to infect enough young healthy people to create protection for the elderly or others with underlying
health issues. From what I have gathered we are getting close to that point now.
So I at this time would be in favor of opening all schools.
That being said, I do not claim to be properly educated on this subject and will keep a open mind and
would certainly change my mind provided evidence to the contrary.
I apologize in advance if my post was too political. I shouldn't have given away my political party
by stating I have a open mind. :biggrin:
 

OC--LeftCoast

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No offense taken. I'm whacko and a lefty, so... I mean, I dunno if they go together, but I can't say you're exactly wrong...LOL

Influenza mortality in 2017 per the CDC is 2 per 100k or 0.002% of the population. The raw number of deaths was 6515. When lumping influenza together with pneumonia, the number is 55,672. But where the CDC published the numbers purely for influenza, it's 6515.

We're already at 133,940... so far... which is 0.04%... or TWENTY TIMES more deadly... and we don't know for how long we'll be stacking bodies. Sorry, that's crude.

So, no, even if we ended COVID today, and everyone was known to at least had contact with it so that they either were exposed and were immune, exposed and carrier, but no symptoms, exposed had mild symptoms, had significant symptoms, but no hospitalization, were hospitalized and recovered or died... we're still looking at a mortality rate of 20x over the flu for which we have complete data.


I watched the vids and I'm not gonna jump into that rabbit hole.

Part of why he had the complaints were apparently he made a vid comparing COVID favorably with the flu? I dunno, I watched both vids and went to his twitter feed and he seems to be a pretty political person even as some of his points are reasonable.

I don't think you can use a Dr who's also a politician who's focusing on VERY political things like redistricting as a bellwether for Drs with dispassionate issues on how a state DoH or the CDC is handling this or dealing with the guidance which did change after we knew more (the mask issue is front and center).

I've been vocal about how poorly the data has been handled all around, so that's not even a partisan issue for me...and even if it were, I'm not a part of either party at issue, so...I'm happy to freely criticize both.

Here's the bottom line for me. And I'm being a bit serious, here.

Outside of all the medical stuff, if WE the PEOPLE had simply taken up the mantle of "SAVING AMERICA" and took this seriously, made mask wearing a patriotic thing from the beginning (and yes, we had data from places with early success...I'll say it again... South Korea), we'd be cautiously starting the NBA, MLB and the NHL back up and the NFL would be in camp.

Oh and tens of thousands of people would be alive that aren't.

Why didn't we do that? Why did we YOLO this? I mean besides the political stuff calling it a hoax and the nonsense that it's spread by 5G?

I dunno. As much as I take serious issue with much in this country (as we all do, it seems... just about different things, I guess), I always when we got down to brass tacks thought that we loved one another in a real way, not just in when Lee Greenwood sings, "Proud to be an American" and that every American life was precious.

It's sad and frustrating to be so clearly set straight that for many Americans, they couldn't give a single SHIT about anyone, forget Americans. I dunno how to deal with that.

I was a kid watching guys walk on the moon. I still cry when I see the Miracle on Ice. I joined with no other purpose than to serve.

I mean, when all is said and done... we're gonna have to rethink some things because the social contract we THOUGHT we had... we clearly don't. CLEARLY don't.

I don't expect us to agree always...or even at all on most things. But caring for one another during a disaster or a pandemic? That used to be sacrosanct. It's not anymore. Hell, there was an idiot (older person) who was so incensed about the whole mask thing that she COUGHED ON A BABY!!! WTF are we doing???


And for all the joking, that's really sad to me. I dunno if we can fix that foundation or even if enough want to. I mean for all the various divides...racial, political, economic...whatever... if I told you last June that over 100k Americans would die in less than a year because of a global pandemic and the answer from a LOT of Americans would be "YOLO, it's nature, some gotta die, yo" would you have thought "welp, that's normal" or had a different reaction?

I dunno.

Hey, the good news is that our local library was open and I was able to get Philip K Dick's The Man in the High Castle as well as a new bit of fiction, The Network by LC Shaw. Looks interesting. Had to do something... My youngest introduced me to tiktok (they've shown me dozens of them, but I'd never installed it to see a linked tiktok she shared with me... that damn thing is so addictive, it makes twitter seem like CNN... So I just had to find something to spark that reading urge. I mean, I have two full paper grocery bags plus...filled with books from the last two book drives from the library... I always give them back to resell, but still... something had to give.

so yeah...reading... I mean it's an alternate history where the Nazis and Imperial Japanese win WW2, but it's a start...

Also been binging the series on Amazon and it's been really good...so far...no spoilers. I'm in Season 3 I think. I dunno how to describe where I am without giving spoilers. Well... the Man in the High Castle just moved...

EDIT: Corrected a word
You sprinkled in a couple of facts with a lot of what I’d respectfully label conjecture, which is good conversation yet still conjecture, time will reveal down the road where this eventually leads, I like to believe we’re way past stacking bodies, no need to rehash the last 35 pages yet again.

Cheers my man and stay safe.
 

OC--LeftCoast

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Perhaps I would like to add just one more take, and it’s on masks.

Let me start by saying that I’ve worn a mask in public long before they were mandatory in California for absolutely no other reason than consideration for others (sorry I think they’re basically useless for the user but no doubt have some effect limiting exposure to others)

Then we get flip flop Fauci on TV explaining the basic futility of simple folk wearing masks...saying they basically did nothing...yada yada yada he very articulate on why, we all saw the report. (again, we all know masks help limit exposure to others with basically zero help to the wearer)

Here’s the problem I have, in that same report he also outlined how not properly putting on a mask can actually lead to the virus, now these numbers seem to change by the week but as I recall around 35 pages ago in conversation with Mack I had pointed out after watching a Bronx Hospital ER Dr. pretty much came out and state they’ve been learning a great amount on how the disease spreads, overwhelmingly It’s from hand to mouth

Put 2 and 2 together there and you get my point

The Dr also claimed 9 to 1 ratio being infected inside as opposed to open air outside.

Cali was one of the very first states to implement social distancing, our numbers were relatively low, mask wearing wasn’t really too popular until oh about 2 months ago, and pretty much everyone I see wears them in public, it’s mandated, yet our numbers Have definitely increased during the mask era. (More testing?)

I just can’t help but wonder if there is another side to the coin people getting rona because not following the rules each and every time you put on a mask, there is no way for proving or disproving this, it only takes one slip, myself I do the bank robber bandana thing.

So do most people get the virus hand to mouth or do they get it from droplets floating in the air, as of a month ago the opinion was overwhelmingly hand to mouth. That’s the big question no one has a fact based answer to.

With that blather just being typed, I continue to wear masks and will continue until the threat is eliminated
 

XXXIVwin

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Fair Enough Mack, but I do have 2 questions or thoughts some folks have been dodging or file it under thee ole “a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest” thingy

1) If indeed the CDC is correct in their assumption that 10 times the population has rona that those who tested positive to date...would that drastically affect the mortality rate % and dare I say it (only because to me the fatalities are losing steam) is not much different than a severe flu at this point (Just a theory of course)

2) About ”gun decking” the numbers (either way) on page 92 X posted a couple of tweets from a ER Doctor whom pretty much was parroting those two Drs from Bakersfield over a month ago, not sure why either of these guys would be motivated to risk their careers on a lie.

Curious on your whacko lefty (just kidding gawd dammit) takes on this, you could chime in too partner in crime whackster @XXXIVwin

All in fun yet constructive exchanges of different points of view is a good thing.
Ok, I'll bite. But only cuz I'm a fear-mongering-commie-partner-in-crime-whackster.

Re. #1: I feel like it is really hard to estimate the mortality rate of COVID because it is next to impossible to ascertain the "true" number of infections. By the same line of reasoning, one would have to assume that the "true" numbers of influenza might be similarly undercounted, right? The "true" number of influenza cases are similarly just a projection-- not confined merely to confirmed positives.

Regardless, it doesn't seem like any epidemiologist is still trying to claim that COVID is in anywhere near the same ballpark as the flu. I mean, the entire world has gone thru hell and shut down, and this bug STILL has killed over half a million people. Given COVID's ability to transmit like crazy during exponential growth, can you imagine the death toll if we had treated it "just like the flu" and hadn't taken these extraordinary measures? Seems logical to assume that the death toll would be multiple millions. That is a whole order of magnitude type of difference.

From what I've read and seen, seems like settled scientific fact that COVID is significantly more deadly than even a "severe" flu.

Re. #2: Quite honestly, I believe that COVID deaths are probably significantly undercounted. Many other scientific studies echo this opinion. A Yale study just published a week ago in JAMA Internal Medicine came to this very conclusion:


So Yes, maybe there are a few over-zealous money-grabbing hospital administrators. But OTOH, there are statistics which show as-yet unexplained unusually high death rates. Basically, in the 3 month period from March 1 to May 30, way more Americans died than normally... actually 19% more. The research says that a significant number of these deaths which were supposedly attributed to other factors--stroke, heart attacks, etc.-- most likely had undiagnosed COVID as a contributing cause of death.

A second reason from my POV.... when low-income folks with inadequate health care die, I imagine there is not real rigorous double-checking for COVID after they have passed away. Just seems common sense that a LOT of undiagnosed COVID fatalities would fall through the cracks.

Bottom line though-- I think both mortality rate and total death tally are both somewhat unreliable figures. I think mortality rate in particular is HIGHLY subjective.
 

OC--LeftCoast

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Ok, I'll bite. But only cuz I'm a fear-mongering-commie-partner-in-crime-whackster.

Re. #1: I feel like it is really hard to estimate the mortality rate of COVID because it is next to impossible to ascertain the "true" number of infections. By the same line of reasoning, one would have to assume that the "true" numbers of influenza might be similarly undercounted, right? The "true" number of influenza cases are similarly just a projection-- not confined merely to confirmed positives.

Regardless, it doesn't seem like any epidemiologist is still trying to claim that COVID is in anywhere near the same ballpark as the flu. I mean, the entire world has gone thru hell and shut down, and this bug STILL has killed over half a million people. Given COVID's ability to transmit like crazy during exponential growth, can you imagine the death toll if we had treated it "just like the flu" and hadn't taken these extraordinary measures? Seems logical to assume that the death toll would be multiple millions. That is a whole order of magnitude type of difference.

From what I've read and seen, seems like settled scientific fact that COVID is significantly more deadly than even a "severe" flu.

Re. #2: Quite honestly, I believe that COVID deaths are probably significantly undercounted. Many other scientific studies echo this opinion. A Yale study just published a week ago in JAMA Internal Medicine came to this very conclusion:


So Yes, maybe there are a few over-zealous money-grabbing hospital administrators. But OTOH, there are statistics which show as-yet unexplained unusually high death rates. Basically, in the 3 month period from March 1 to May 30, way more Americans died than normally... actually 19% more. The research says that a significant number of these deaths which were supposedly attributed to other factors--stroke, heart attacks, etc.-- most likely had undiagnosed COVID as a contributing cause of death.

A second reason from my POV.... when low-income folks with inadequate health care die, I imagine there is not real rigorous double-checking for COVID after they have passed away. Just seems common sense that a LOT of undiagnosed COVID fatalities would fall through the cracks.

Bottom line though-- I think both mortality rate and total death tally are both somewhat unreliable figures. I think mortality rate in particular is HIGHLY subjective.
Okay I’ll admit it’s possible my flu take represented “alternate facts” lol, I know you like that one.

On the other issues, I’d say one of us 75% wrong, yet it’s 50/50 just which of us is, that’s damn close to a Yogi reference

If we both manage to survive this, we may find out who was closer to being halfway right

btw, were you a Wentz guy like your brother Mack? :biggrin: Be honest now, lol
 

oldnotdead

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The problem with the herd immunity concept is the assumption that once you have been exposed your body builds an immunity to the disease. That ignores the fact that COVID-19 has already mutated at least once. There is evidence to suggest that prior exposure does not prevent you from becoming symptomatic from exposure to the mutated virus. Also, because of that aspect herd immunity may never be achieved or will probably take much longer at a much larger cost in lives than the development of a vaccine. It's easier to tweak an effective vaccine such as is done with each year's version of the flu vaccine.

There is no proof that herd immunity among humans is even possible with COVID-19, it's simply a THEORY based upon animal observation. Which does not really account for the ongoing cost of that need to evolve the immunity. We are talking generations if we take that approach. Those who are advocating herd immunity to save the economy might actually be dooming it over the long run. American's trying to implement this unproven theory is why the US is so far behind the rest of the world with no end in sight. At some point, common sense says "this ain't working".
 

XXXIVwin

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Okay I’ll admit it’s possible my flu take represented “alternate facts” lol, I know you like that one.

On the other issues, I’d say one of us 75% wrong, yet it’s 50/50 just which of us is, that’s damn close to a Yogi reference

If we both manage to survive this, we may find out who was closer to being halfway right

btw, were you a Wentz guy like your brother Mack? :biggrin: Be honest now, lol
Yup, I’ll agree with you on that— one of us is AT LEAST 75% wrong, my alt-facts-lovin’ bruthah!:zany:

And check out my post from April 2016 entitled “Goff superior to Wentz.” True dat!

Go Rams
 

XXXIVwin

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Well to be fair my post wasn't only about that.
Yeah, totally fair. As I say, you have posted tons of reasonable stuff in this thread that I agree with. Especially re. economics and the need to move forward with a coherent plan and a minimum of partisanship.

I was just trying to point out one specific particular opinion with which I disagreed.

I am extremely concerned that over the coming weeks and months the numbers are going to get really bad. We’ll all have spirited debates about how to muddle through as best we can.

I just don’t want us to fool ourselves into thinking that there’s some sort of “silver lining“ to exploding case numbers, because there’s not. Higher infection rates will NOT get us significantly closer to herd immunity. The only thing that will give us a chance at herd immunity is the arrival of the vaccine.

Cheers
 

bluecoconuts

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Findings
Seroprevalence was 5·0% (95% CI 4·7–5·4) by the point-of-care test and 4·6% (4·3–5·0) by immunoassay, with a specificity–sensitivity range of 3·7% (3·3–4·0; both tests positive) to 6·2% (5·8–6·6; either test positive), with no differences by sex and lower seroprevalence in children younger than 10 years (<3·1% by the point-of-care test). There was substantial geographical variability, with higher prevalence around Madrid (>10%) and lower in coastal areas (<3%). Seroprevalence among 195 participants with positive PCR more than 14 days before the study visit ranged from 87·6% (81·1–92·1; both tests positive) to 91·8% (86·3–95·3; either test positive). In 7273 individuals with anosmia or at least three symptoms, seroprevalence ranged from 15·3% (13·8–16·8) to 19·3% (17·7–21·0). Around a third of seropositive participants were asymptomatic, ranging from 21·9% (19·1–24·9) to 35·8% (33·1–38·5). Only 19·5% (16·3–23·2) of symptomatic participants who were seropositive by both the point-of-care test and immunoassay reported a previous PCR test.


TL;DR - Evidence doesn’t suggest that herd immunity will simply by achieved by exposing more people, in fact it suggests the opposite.

This argument feels like the argument going on earlier between the virus just simply going away in the summer vs not. People suggested it would go away based on other diseases, data suggested that no it wouldn’t, there was so much back and forth suddenly that the science started getting lost in all it, and surprise, it didn’t go away.

Herd immunity might be possible, especially with a vaccine, but it’s not a guarantee. Plus as some have noted they refuse to take it, which can make herd immunity impossible if the numbers of those who refuse are high enough.

Acting as if we should push for herd immunization by just exposing ourselves isn’t likely to lead to any real success.

Sweden tried that approach. Thousands more died in Sweden than in Norway and Finland. Norway had a little over 200, Finland a little over 300, Sweden 5,500. So going for the remain open and try for herd immunity didn’t work in the sense of reducing anything, but it meant their economy didn’t need to shut down, which is good.

Except the death and sickness has still taken its toll on their economy and they’re right there with everyone else. But with 5,000 more deaths that come across as unnecessary more than ever now.

Maybe the model will work, but the data doesn’t suggest it will at all. It’s pointing to the opposite.
 

OC--LeftCoast

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More Conjecture, just saying

Science and “data” have been screwing the pooch from the get-go, that’s pretty much my only take concerning this plague to date

im a little more optimistic than some here

C’est la Vie
 
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12intheBox

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Science evolves as new data emerges. Scientists are consistently questioning themselves, challenging their assumptions. It’s how science works.

Lay opinions on the other hand are much less fungible. We humans get some thrill out of assessing things quickly, making our determination, and then digging our feet in to try to prove - even if only to ourselves - that we have been right on that determination.

Qui vivra verra
 

OC--LeftCoast

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Science evolves as new data emerges. Scientists are consistently questioning themselves, challenging their assumptions. It’s how science works.

Right, however it doesn’t change my point that they have pretty much been a step behind from the beginning

And there could be a reason, surely you remember the “swims like a duck“ thing 36 or so pages ago

This ain’t your run of the mill virus, it’ll come out eventually

We all used to be allowed opinions, nowadays follow msm or else?
 

12intheBox

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Right, however it doesn’t change my point that they have pretty much been a step behind from the beginning

And there could be a reason, surely you remember the “swims like a duck“ thing 36 or so pages ago

This ain’t your run of the mill virus, it’ll come out eventually

We all used to be allowed opinions, nowadays follow msm or else?

right. The made in a lab thing but released accidentally theory? I remember everything about that except the motive. You kept that one secret. Are you ready to reveal it now? I really am interested in hearing the why.
 

OC--LeftCoast

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right. The made in a lab thing but released accidentally theory? I remember everything about that except the motive. You kept that one secret. Are you ready to reveal it now? I really am interested in hearing the why.
Motive?

lol Motive?

Look at the impact on the Western worlds economy for crying out loud, China is NOT our friend (at least thru my pov) or should I say, currently our friend...which shouldn’t surprise anyone. lol as apparently many are not ( gotta tread lightly around this critical point)

You know I once saw a picture of a surfboard, with a missing surfer and an obvious shark bite on the board, it had the caption...but did you actually see the shark?

My problem is unfortunately I can‘t produce a picture of the damn shark for you, lol, dammit!

Dude, I like you, your football takes are usually solid, and I hope this doesn’t drive a wedge between us, but we just need to agree to disagree on this topic, we both obviously see things differently and have all along, I have zero desire to change one’s opinion, just trying to put forth mine, which hopefully isn’t the end of the world doing so.

Peace
 
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RamBall

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Perhaps I would like to add just one more take, and it’s on masks.

Let me start by saying that I’ve worn a mask in public long before they were mandatory in California for absolutely no other reason than consideration for others (sorry I think they’re basically useless for the user but no doubt have some effect limiting exposure to others)

Then we get flip flop Fauci on TV explaining the basic futility of simple folk wearing masks...saying they basically did nothing...yada yada yada he very articulate on why, we all saw the report. (again, we all know masks help limit exposure to others with basically zero help to the wearer)

Here’s the problem I have, in that same report he also outlined how not properly putting on a mask can actually lead to the virus, now these numbers seem to change by the week but as I recall around 35 pages ago in conversation with Mack I had pointed out after watching a Bronx Hospital ER Dr. pretty much came out and state they’ve been learning a great amount on how the disease spreads, overwhelmingly It’s from hand to mouth

Put 2 and 2 together there and you get my point

The Dr also claimed 9 to 1 ratio being infected inside as opposed to open air outside.

Cali was one of the very first states to implement social distancing, our numbers were relatively low, mask wearing wasn’t really too popular until oh about 2 months ago, and pretty much everyone I see wears them in public, it’s mandated, yet our numbers Have definitely increased during the mask era. (More testing?)

I just can’t help but wonder if there is another side to the coin people getting rona because not following the rules each and every time you put on a mask, there is no way for proving or disproving this, it only takes one slip, myself I do the bank robber bandana thing.

So do most people get the virus hand to mouth or do they get it from droplets floating in the air, as of a month ago the opinion was overwhelmingly hand to mouth. That’s the big question no one has a fact based answer to.

With that blather just being typed, I continue to wear masks and will continue until the threat is eliminated

The biggest thing I have noticed about those that wear masks, is that the masks are usually filthy like they have been touched a thousand times and not washed recently. I wear a mask when I have to for work and make sure once its been worn it goes in the dirty bag and I have my wife wash them every weekend. She just dumps the bag in the washer along with her bag of masks, no touching. I dont wear a mask shopping, mainly because the science says it does no good for me or others. And I am just in there to get my shit and get out. We dont make it a family outing and I know what I am there for and where it is. I have actually found that by not wearing a mask, people are more likely to get out of my way and let me shop while they try to decide which brand canned pineapple they want or what size bottle of ketchup to get. It amazes me that people believe it is dangerous enough to wear a mask, but not too dangerous to make a family outing of it and spend God knows how long in the store that is so dangerous. I am in, out and back home in under 30 mins. I figure if masks dont slow the spread of cold and flu why would we expect them to slow the spread of covid. There have been several studies over the years showing masks dont slow or stop other corona viruses and I will go out on a limb and suggest covid is just like other corona viruses when it comes to the size of the spores. Once a mask gets wet, about 5 minutes if your lucky. As you exhale that moisture is forced out and broadcast even further than if there were no mask, at least thats what I have read and heard from Drs. And it makes sense if you think about it. If my employer left it up to me I would only wear a mask when the customer wishes I do so, which wouldnt be very often. Maybe 2 or 3 times a week, most customers are sick of the lockdown and just want this to get over with, herd immunity more quickly, not the long slow drawn out kill as many people as possible way it is being done or been done by many states. The only reason we have so many more cases than other countries is because we test way more people, than other countries. We even test people that never felt sick and end up testing positive. Other countries only test the sick. Last I looked the rate of positive cases hasnt jumped dramatically while the deaths have dropped off steadily nation wide with some states increasing and others decreasing.
 

OC--LeftCoast

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The biggest thing I have noticed about those that wear masks, is that the masks are usually filthy like they have been touched a thousand times and not washed recently. I wear a mask when I have to for work and make sure once its been worn it goes in the dirty bag and I have my wife wash them every weekend. She just dumps the bag in the washer along with her bag of masks, no touching. I dont wear a mask shopping, mainly because the science says it does no good for me or others. And I am just in there to get my shit and get out. We dont make it a family outing and I know what I am there for and where it is. I have actually found that by not wearing a mask, people are more likely to get out of my way and let me shop while they try to decide which brand canned pineapple they want or what size bottle of ketchup to get. It amazes me that people believe it is dangerous enough to wear a mask, but not too dangerous to make a family outing of it and spend God knows how long in the store that is so dangerous. I am in, out and back home in under 30 mins. I figure if masks dont slow the spread of cold and flu why would we expect them to slow the spread of covid. There have been several studies over the years showing masks dont slow or stop other corona viruses and I will go out on a limb and suggest covid is just like other corona viruses when it comes to the size of the spores. Once a mask gets wet, about 5 minutes if your lucky. As you exhale that moisture is forced out and broadcast even further than if there were no mask, at least thats what I have read and heard from Drs. And it makes sense if you think about it. If my employer left it up to me I would only wear a mask when the customer wishes I do so, which wouldnt be very often. Maybe 2 or 3 times a week, most customers are sick of the lockdown and just want this to get over with, herd immunity more quickly, not the long slow drawn out kill as many people as possible way it is being done or been done by many states. The only reason we have so many more cases than other countries is because we test way more people, than other countries. We even test people that never felt sick and end up testing positive. Other countries only test the sick. Last I looked the rate of positive cases hasnt jumped dramatically while the deaths have dropped off steadily nation wide with some states increasing and others decreasing.

Holy Shit, that was one hell of a difficult read from my iPad:D

Pretty sure I agree with most of what you said

Cheers
 

FaulkSF

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Another topic: Asymptomatic carriers. If COVID is spread via coughs and sneezes, and these folk are not doing so. Can we still catch it from them?

Would they just be talking, sneezing, and coughing blanks?

Is there indisputable scientific evidence it has been spread this way?
 

Loyal

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I will say one thing, and I really don't care if anyone agrees with me or not. I'm a personal liberty guy.. The wearing of masks, and more the coercion of people into wearing masks has a limit for me. I will not wear masks after a certain point and anyone telling me to do so in a year will get the stink eye from me or worse. Yes, there are vulnerable people to Covid, but humanity has been getting all sorts o bugs in the air for the last 40,000 years. This seems to be a long term game by germaphobes to force everyone to wear masks by appealing to your sympathy. Do I wear masks now? Yes, because I choose to in courtesy for others until it seems like they have a handle on things. If they never do, then fukk that in the ass.
 
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