http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2016/12/10/13882566/stats-preview-falcons-rams-2016-by-the-numbers
By the Numbers Stats Preview: Falcons at Rams
In this epic west coast battle of NFL juggernauts, who has the statistical advantage on offense and defense?
by Kevin Knight
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
The Atlanta Falcons (7-5) take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-8) on Sunday in their last west coast trip of the season. Atlanta is coming off a tough, one-point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Rams are fresh off a mauling by the New England Patriots.
As you can infer from the record, these are two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. Atlanta is one of the top offenses in the league and is currently leading their division. Los Angeles is floundering, having given up back-to-back big games on defense and doing almost nothing on offense.
From the eye test, this game appears very one-sided. What do the numbers say?
Offense
Points/game: Falcons 32.2 (1st), Rams 15 (32nd)
Total Yards/game: Falcons 412.0 (3rd), Rams 284.0 (32nd)
Passing Yards/game: Falcons 302.0 (3rd), Rams 204.8 (29th)
Passing TDs: Falcons 27 (3rd), Rams 13 (T-26th)
Rushing Yards/game: Falcons 110.0 (9th), Rams 79.2 (30th)
Rushing TDs: Falcons 14 (T-3rd), Rams 5 (T-27th)
Third Down Efficiency: Falcons 41% (13th), Rams 32% (32nd)
Turnover Margin: Falcons +3 (T-11th), Rams -6 (T-26th)
Atlanta is still atop the league in scoring with 32.2 points/game, and are 3rd in total yards, passing yards, and passing TDs. The rushing attack has been emphasized more in recent weeks, and the Falcons have moved up to 9th in rushing yards and 3rd in rushing TDs. They’re also above average on third down (13th) and in turnover margin (T-11th).
The Rams are, quite literally, the worst offense in the NFL. They average less than half the points per game of Atlanta (15 per game, 32nd), and less than 300 yards/game overall (284.0, 32nd). They are equally inept in passing (29th) and rushing (30th), and are worst in the league on third down, converting only 32% of their opportunities. Los Angeles has also been turnover prone, and are -6 on the year (T-26th).
Advantage: Falcons
Defense
Points/game: Falcons 27.6 (29th), Rams 21.8 (15th)
Total Yards/game: Falcons 381.7 (27th), Rams 345.0 (10th)
Passing Yards/game: Falcons 280.8 (32nd), Rams 231.0 (T-9th)
Passing TDs: Falcons 26 (T-30th), Rams 21 (T-18th)
Rushing Yards/game: Falcons 100.8 (15th), Rams 114.0 (21st)
Rushing TDs: Falcons 11 (T-21st), Rams 9 (T-11th)
Third Down Efficiency: Falcons 43% (26th), Rams 38% (8th)
Sacks: Falcons 25 (T-19th), Rams 22 (T-24th)
On defense, Atlanta is still among the worst in the league in most major stats. They’re 29th in points/game, 27th in total yards, and 32nd in passing yards. They’re better against the run: the Falcons are 15th in rushing yards and T-21st in rushing TDs. Atlanta has also improved markedly in the pass rushing department, as they have 25 sacks on the season (T-19th).
The Rams are a mostly average defense that have a few strong points. They’re 15th in scoring, 21st in rushing yards, and T-24th in sacks. But they’re also 10th in total yards, T-9th in passing yards, and 8th in third down efficiency. Yes, the Rams vaunted pass rush, with players like Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald, has less sacks than the Falcons thus far. Still, by the numbers, they’re a better defense than the Falcons, though that isn’t saying much.
Advantage: Rams
Let’s be honest here: the Rams are a deeply dysfunctional team with serious personnel and coaching issues. While they do play somewhat better at home, this is a team that is coming off two blowout losses. They’ve scored 20-or-more points in one of their last five games and have won only one home game all season.
Add to that the fact that they’ve been all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason and you get a recipe for a blowout, or at the very least, a disappointing performance. There are also rumors of discontent and a “toxic” relationship between the coaches and personnel. None of this looks good for Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is an offensive juggernaut that has been nearly unstoppable at times and has played very well on the road. The Falcons defense is exploitable by average or better offenses, but the Rams are far, far worse than average. Their offensive line, namely, is a huge liability, and the Falcons pass rush could be primed for a big game.
The status of Julio Jones and Jake Matthews will play in a role in just how dominant the Falcons might be in this game, but by both the eye test and the numbers, Atlanta should walk away with a comfortable win on Sunday.
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http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2016/12/10/13890808/falcons-defense-rams-offense-2016-week-14
Falcons defense vs. Rams offense: who wins?
This is a matchup between two pretty lackluster groups, but someone has to come out on top, right? Right?
by Kyle W McClendon
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Last week the Falcons defense made Alex Smith and the Kansas City offense look like the Green Bay Packers in 2010 for a couple of drives, but they also showed signs of figuring some things out as the game went on. Ultimately, though, the defense looked like they have all season: inconsistent and somewhat clueless at times. Luckily, things get easier this week as they take on the Rams of Los Angeles—owners of the worst offense in the NFL.
Neither group really has a strength or an identity so there is very little possibility of predicting this matchup, I think. We’ll give it a shot anyway.
In the trenches
Pro Football Focus player ratings make things a little easier here because they are based on some form of quantifiable data, but this matchup is still not very solid. The Rams have one player along their offensive line that rates above a 75: Rob Havenstein has been hovering right around average for most of the year. Every other offensive lineman, however, is rated closer to 70 and have been a little below average on the season. Los Angeles is 30th in the league in rushing and have allowed 31 sacks on the season, so this is one of the worst offensive lines the Falcons will face all year.
In light of that, I think the Falcons have a chance to actually impact the line of scrimmage here. Grady Jarrett should have one of his better games of 2016 and Dwight Freeney and VicBeasley should be able to impact rookie Jared Goff as they line up against Greg Robinson and Rob Havenstein.
An important note is that I really have struggled to put my faith in this defensive line on a regular basis because they have yet to perform well regularly, so I will give them the edge here even though I think it is smaller than some people initially think.
Advantage: Atlanta Falcons
Skill Positions
The Rams have the 29th ranked receiving group in terms of yards per catch (the NFL’s default measurement, apparently) and the 26th if we go by touchdowns. The highlight of this offense is Todd Gurley by a wide margin. However, there are a couple of guys with the potential to win some matchups against Robert Alford, Jalen Collins, and Brian Poole—namely, Kenny Britt.
I think Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, and the linebackers should have a better time against the L.A. group than they did last week against Kansas City. Lance Kendricks is no Travis Kelce so it seems likely that Neal has a better game, but Gurley is much better than a lot of other backs in the league, making him a candidate for the game no one ever sees coming against Atlanta. I think the Falcons hold the edge here, but there is always potential for any team to take advantage of Atlanta’s defensive deficiencies—especially with injuries being such an issue for Atlanta.
Advantage: Atlanta Falcons
Conclusion
The Falcons hold the edge here mostly because of who they are playing and how much the Rams have struggled on offense this year. Atlanta is a very inconsistent group that can make even the worst offense in the NFL look like an above-average unit, so I’m not entirely confident in their ability against Jeff Fisher’s Rams.
Despite my lack of incredible confidence in Atlanta’s defense, I’m even less confident in the Los Angeles offense. This game will come down to the line of scrimmage and which team can impact the other in the trenches. I think Atlanta has a chance to win that matchup, so I’ll give them the edge in the game. I don’t think it will be pretty, though.
Advantage: Atlanta Falcons
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http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2016/1...beasley-aaron-donald-matt-ryan-taylor-gabriel
Falcons - Rams: 3 matchups that matter
by Dave Choate
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Normally, Julio Jones would make the list of top three matchups, because he is a nightmare in cleats and there are few mortals who can stand against him. Injured and questionable in this one, though, Julio cannot be an automatic pick. We’re left to consider what this offense will look like without him.
What makes this game more interesting than it should be is all the injuries on Atlanta’s side, frankly. No Adrian Clayborn, no Desmond Trufant, no Mohamed Sanu, and potentially no Jake Matthews or Julio puts the Falcons in somewhat of a hole, missing key players on both sides of the ball against a team laying at home and backed into a corner. While I do think Atlanta will win, this adds some intrigue to the matchup, and makes me warier than I’d like to be.
With that in mind, here are three matchups that should matter in this one.
Aaron Donald versus Chris Chester
This has the potential to be a major problem for Atlanta. Donald is a world-beater, one of those rare defensive tackles who can absolutely destroy interior offensive linemen and make a quarterback’s life miserable. While Chester won’t be the only one dealing with him, Donald does to line up on his side.
While Chester is not a major liability, it is true that he is no great asset in pass protection on his best of days, and a day spent facing Aaron Donald is nobody’s idea of a “best day.” With six sacks already this year and 26 over his three NFL seasons, Donald can and will get after Ryan, and if Ryan’s missing his top two receiving options, that could be hugely problematic.
The Falcons are going to need to hope Chester and company are up to the task of protecting their quarterback, and they’re going to need to give Ryan the option to dump the ball if (or when) he has pressure in his face.
Taylor Gabriel versus the poor sap who has to cover him
The Rams do not have terrible cornerbacks, but they also don’t have great ones, and they certainly don’t have the kind of cornerbacks who can keep up in a footrace with Taylor Gabriel. That’s one silver lining on a day where the Falcons are going to have to be creative to deal with the loss of Sanu and potential loss (or at least limitation) with Julio. Justin Hardy and Aldrick Robinson will have to step up, but it’s Gabriel who has the potential to break things open.
The obvious problem for Gabriel is that he’s going to be facing a better caliber of cornerback than he typically does, since he could very well be the #1 or #2 option in the passing game. A matchup against Trumaine Johnson would not be insurmountable, but Johnson is not a slouch. It’ll make sense to get him the ball in space on quick hitters, and Aldrick Robinson should be able to carve out a larger role, but the Falcons will still be hopeful that they can take a couple of deep shots in Gabriel’s direction.
Vic Beasley versus Rob Havenstein
Beasley has annihilated his fair share of tackles in 2016, and we’ll hope that Havenstein is the latest man on the list.
Havenstein is not a bad player, per se, but he’s not a particularly great or quick-footed one just yet, and Beasley is good for a couple of plays a game where he just looks unblockable. Against tackles who can’t deal with his speed or maul him at the point of attack, Beasley can be downright nasty, and Jared Goff is not yet experience enough or good enough to consistently escape pressure.
Let’s hope this one gets ugly.
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