Trading up into the top half of round 2

[TexasRam]

The funny thing about the draft is after watching it for 40+ years you begin to realize that people develop an accepted group think consensus on the players and where the talent is in the draft.

The truth is, this Consensus is always wrong on so many players.

The smartest hardest working scouts often get it wrong year after year.

That is why the move back for more picks strategy makes sense.

But then the question is how far back should a team move. Which round should we accumulate our picks at?

Group think might say round 3. But a lot can happen in 3 rounds including a
Run on a position. So now you are picking two mediocre prospects vs one highly rated prospect.

In the 2019 draft the Rams traded back 3 times to accumulate more picks. We drafted late 2nd round and 3 times in the 3rd Round

Rapp
Henderson
Long
Evans

The current group think prevailed. These players are still young so. Let’s see how it plays out. But it’s entirely possible we only have one long term starter out of that group and he was taken in RD 2.

 

[TheTackle]

The funny thing about the draft is after watching it for 40+ years you begin to realize that people develop an accepted group think consensus on the players and where the talent is in the draft.

The truth is, this Consensus is always wrong on so many players.

The smartest hardest working scouts often get it wrong year after year.

That is why the move back for more picks strategy makes sense.

But then the question is how far back should a team move. Which round should we accumulate our picks at?

Group think might say round 3. But a lot can happen in 3 rounds including a
Run on a position. So now you are picking two mediocre prospects vs one highly rated prospect.

In the 2019 draft the Rams traded back 3 times to accumulate more picks. We drafted late 2nd round and 3 times in the 3rd Round

Rapp
Henderson
Long
Evans

The current group think prevailed. These players are still young so. Let’s see how it plays out. But it’s entirely possible we only have one long term starter out of that group and he was taken in RD 2.

Great post.

The irony is that in previous seasons I argued we should trade out of the Robinson spot, in another we should trade down and pick D Hopkins, and last year, that we would trade down multiple times - not because that is always the way forward, but because I thought Robinson was a boom or bust with poor footwork and no technical skills - that Andre Hopkins was a rare talent - the like of which normally goes much higher but that only 3 teams (including us) were likely to pick a WR (I was not on board the Tavon hype as a high 1st is a lot of real estate for a tiny slot receiver with small hands).

As for last year, you make an excellent point. It is still too soon to tell if trading down was the right move. I wasn’t mad on the Evans pick but he looks like he will be a starter going forward

The irony is that back then most hated the idea of trading down . I am always in favour of accumulating picks but there is a big drop off, in my opinion, from a RB like Dobbins or CEH to say a less gifted back like Moss

We have 11 starters last time I checked so one might wonder would it be better that one is a terror like Dobbins (if he does drop into the top half of the second as aspected) or two ‘other guys’ we pick in the 3rd who look good warming the bench or wearing street cloths?

 

[TheTackle]

In this draft the mid rounds past the First round and half of round 2 that are highly rated for trades are stacked with talent, so no.

I stay pat or trade down. There is a ton of starters or future starters in this range.

Trusting your board and letting the draft come to you while taking advantage of other desperate GM’s is what works best.

It sounds to me like you have a crystal ball but until the draft happens we have no idea which players will be in range at which spots

I get your point and agree that depending on how you rank talent it can make sense to trade down - if you believe the player(s) you want will still there because of how the board is stacked and who is still available

Trading up for a player you have rated well above the next player at his position is not desperation. It is smart provided you have a top notch scouting department, coaches and GM - who can evaluate talent based on their scheme - which we do

 

[Corbin]

It sounds to me like you have a crystal ball but until the draft happens we have no idea which players will be in range at which spots

I get your point and agree that depending on how you rank talent it can make sense to trade down - if you believe the player(s) you want will still there because of how the board is stacked and who is still available

Trading up for a player you have rated well above the next player at his position is not desperation. It is smart provided you have a top notch scouting department, coaches and GM - who can evaluate talent based on their scheme - which we do

Not really. Trading up and giving up 2-3 picks at this point with our limited resources is like giving up talent of multiple guys like John Johnson, Daryl Henderson, Robert Woods, and Cooper Cupp.

With our depleted roster and no first round pick coupled with Sneads draft history I severely doubt we trade up for one guy rather than give up 2-4 solid players.

 

[WestCoastRam]

All I know is that Snead has shown over and over again that he's not afraid to move up or down in draft but that he's more likely to move down if there are multiple players with similar grades.

That being said, we have a ton of holes this year and moving down when there's a player with the right grade and fits a hole seems like tempting fate too much.

Here's my swing: If a LT we like is there at the top of the 2nd, we run the card in. Additionally, this is independent of moving Havenstein.

 

[TheTackle]

Not really. Trading up and giving up 2-3 picks at this point with our limited resources is like giving up talent of multiple guys like John Johnson, Daryl Henderson, Robert Woods, and Cooper Cupp.

With our depleted roster and no first round pick coupled with Sneads draft history I severely doubt we trade up for one guy rather than give up 2-4 solid players.

I demonstrated that you can move up without loosing picks?

I would prefer we draft starters though I agree they don’t necessarily have to come from round 2. That said, this year should see some elite talent fall into trade range

As for more draft picks. This is a rarely stated fact. We have produced more starters from UDFAs than from our picks in rounds 4 5 6 and 7 - its a crap shoot after round 3

 

[Merlin]

Whether you want to trade up is determined by the quality of the player in question. IF for example we see Jones get close to 52 the Rams almost certainly would be in play to move up to get him. There's probably at least 5 or so guys like that, that the Rams see as immediate fits who are high on their board, that they think could slide and would be worth a move up if they do.

But we're at the mercy of the mob here starting so late in the draft. Also when you consider the cornerstone positions (LT, Edge, CB, QB) the Rams are 2 for 4. They have Goff & Ramsey but Edge is a glaring need and LT is damn near one with a starting LT who will be 39 this year.

Extrapolating that out a bit LT is not a position you can be assured should be there at 52 even in this OT quality draft. And we don't have a first round pick to use to find one next year in the draft either. So IMO LT is a high likelihood for a move up IF a guy they want slides.

Edge on the other hand seems pretty good quality well into round 2. I don't see big dropoff from Baun to Okwara/Uche but if Baun slides far enough maybe it makes sense to move up and get the bigger athlete. But also you have some really good edge rush fits in this draft for us even after that 52 range like Anae (who I think is going to be a very good player).

The non-cornerstone type positions I could see the Rams moving up for would be an X wideout (Higgins or Mims since in a usual draft you don't get a shot at that quality of player where we are drafting), or maybe even ILB (as good as Queen & Murray are they are still ILBs in a draft that is loaded with more important positions up high so I could see either slide).

 

[Corbin]

I ‘demonstrated’ that you can move up without loosing picks?

I would prefer we draft starters though I agree they don’t necessarily have to come from round 2. That said, this year should see some elite talent fall into trade range

As for more draft picks. This is a rarely stated fact. We have produced more starters from UDFAs than from our picks in rounds 4 5 6 and 7 - its a crap shoot after round 3

The first and second rounds are a crap shoot as well. No guarantees in anything. Just like investments, putting your eggs in one basket is not sound strategy as has been Proven over and over again in the NFL.

Last 5 seasons starters of players drafted.

Unless you have a crystal ball you suggested and know which pick your trading up for is ‘guaranteed’ for a All Pro designation percentages and values for the picks we have are not that thesable to move up.

I highly doubt we move up as suggested as per Sneads draft record, and the only time he’s significantly moved up is with the Goff trade, and that’s when we had ample ammo to do so.

 

[TheTackle]

The first and second rounds are a crap shoot as well. No guarantees in anything. Just like investments, putting your eggs in one basket is not sound strategy as has been Proven over and over again in the NFL.

Last 5 seasons starters of players drafted.
View attachment 35610


Unless you have a crystal ball you suggested and know which pick your trading up for is ‘guaranteed’ for a All Pro designation percentages and values for the picks we have are not that thesable to move up.

I highly doubt we move up as suggested as per Sneads draft record, and the only time he’s significantly moved up is with the Goff trade, and that’s when we had ample ammo to do so.

Your chart does kinda prove my point

I think you might be exaggerating the only time he has moved up.

As I said, we can move up without losing picks

We do have the ammo to move around in order to take players at different spots

I agree with Memphis above - though I am not as high on the EDGE players. I see RB WR and OT as positions where there maybe great value in trading up a few spots

 

[Neil039]

Just in general. The current state of the draft due to Chinese Corona, any team with a successful draft this year will have earned it. This is where I hope the Rams having their scouts and coaches in LA during the Combine will help. Film never lies is the old saying.

 

[iamme33]

Unless you have a crystal ball you suggested and know which pick your trading up for is ‘guarantee

wow! looking at that chart you are almost twice as likely to get a starter in the first rnd then the 2nd plus there is the always the forgotten 5th year option on first rounders. I wonder if that 29.9 % is for career or for first year.

 

[Ants]

Extrapolating that out a bit LT is not a position you can be assured should be there at 52 even in this OT quality draft. And we don't have a first round pick to use to find one next year in the draft either. So IMO LT is a high likelihood for a move up IF a guy they want slides.

Talk about him being a G all you want, but I think Noteboom takes over for Whit at some point.

 

[Dxmissile]

Just please don’t use a draft pick for a running back get one as an undrafted free agent. We need linemen imo

 

[PressureD41]

In this draft the mid rounds past the First round and half of round 2 that are highly rated for trades are stacked with talent, so no.

I stay pat or trade down. There is a ton of starters or future starters in this range.

Trusting your board and letting the draft come to you while taking advantage of other desperate GM’s is what works best.

I heard and read picks 15-100 mostly the same draft grade, so I concur. We need to keep 2-2 & 2-3rds to restock. We basically have 4 picks in top 100 to use. And Snead has found get talent in these rounds..

 

[PressureD41]

Just please don’t use a draft pick for a running back get one as an undrafted free agent. We need linemen imo

Rarely do you find a starting RB post draft FA. We have enough draft captial to add one come Friday night (Day 2). But I am with you, and hope we can add a OLmen that can starter in year 1 though its reporting that most if not all prospects will need some time before starting.

 

[PressureD41]

Just please don’t use a draft pick for a running back get one as an undrafted free agent. We need linemen imo

Furthermore, Henderson can't be trusted to carry the load, after being a hurtbag in year 1. Brown is a 5-8 carry back imho

 

[iamme33]

Furthermore, Henderson can't be trusted to carry the load, after being a hurtbag in year 1. Brown is a 5-8 carry back imho

also brown has been injured last 2 years and Henderson was injured last year and Kelly doesn't seem to be able to get off the practice squad. I wanted 2 oline men until gulley was let go now i think with the injury problem we better draft one early

 

[Dxmissile]

Rarely do you find a starting RB post draft FA. We have enough draft captial to add one come Friday night (Day 2). But I am with you, and hope we can add a OLmen that can starter in year 1 though its reporting that most if not all prospects will need some time before starting.

Yeah but I don’t see the running back being a big factor moving forward in this offense to warrant that high of a pick when more essential needs are there.

 

[MachS]

I know conventional wisdom around here is to trade down - but that would be a mistake in my view. We have the draft capital to pick 3 or 4 potential starters at positions of need, including a potential pro-bowl talent at the top of round 2

picks 52 and 57 = 710 points

2025 NFL Trade Value Chart

www.drafttek.com

Why not trade up with, for example, Cleveland for their 41st pick and 74th pick? Then draft a top WR or RB?

If one or more of Josh Jones, Denzil Mims, JK Dobbins, Cesar Ruiz, Zack Baun, Tee Higgins or Clyde Edwards-Helaire was available and had been evaluated as a plus-starter, would you trade up to draft them? I know I would...

We would still have lots of freedom to move around the board with the 74th 84th 104th and 126th picks...

Leverage 74 & 84 to trade with, for example, Dallas at 51 - leaving us with a 3rd (104th) and 4th (126th)
Trade our 84th and 104th picks to move into Detroit's slot at 67 - leaving us with a high 3rd (74th) and mid 4th (126th).
Trade 74th and 104th to Baltimore for pick 60 - leaving us with a mid 3rd (84th) and mid 4th (126th)
Stand pat at 74 and 84 but trade up from 104 and 126 with, for example, Tennessee at pick 93 - with them sending a makeweight 6th or 7th our way

Just saying

Trade up for a WR or RB?? Dude who doesn't love the WRs in this draft but people on this board forget we have Woods, Kupp, Reynolds, Higbee, Everett as pass catchers. With Henderson and Malcom Brown in the backfield. Offensive weapons isn't as big of a hole as people think.

WE NEED OL TALENT. If we trade up it better be for a stud interior OL, or ILB/EDGE. I dont think there's any chance we trade up and not take one of these positions.

 

[PhillyRam]

Playing with a lot of mock sites and it seems the value for most of what the Rams need; Edge, LB, RB, 5T, WR, G/C is there from 60-100...

So I want as many picks as possible in that range.

Only C is a position that might be light after Cushenberry goes late 2nd. Hennessy would be the only C left that has a shot to play early.

However a lot of edge guys and RBs, ILBs, WRs G's, etc... Will be available. Even a few developmental LTs like Peart can be had.

So hopefully they can move down with both picks unless a stud falls to you.

An example of the quality that could be had with a trade down.

BTW, new man crush.... Would love to see Malik Harrison. Can play outside or inside. A much more physical Littleton.