The Case for Overpaying for QBs in NFL Draft Trades

[XXXIVwin]

Flv, you are right in that I should have used the quote button.

All I can say is, I think you and I have a substantial disagreement regarding the Browns choices (and the philosophy of picking near the top of the draft). To me, when you are a team that is sorely missing a solid qb, the “draft value chart” needs to be tossed out. I do not agree that the Browns problem is that they “used their 3000 points in draft value” unwisely. The problem is that they gave up their rare, precious opportunity to grab a franchise QB.

So what if the Browns parlayed supposedly 2600 points into supposedly 3000 points? Big whoop, even by the draft value chart that’s a mid second round pick. Passing on Wentz in order to pick up the extra value of a second-rounder is a good idea? Really?

Of course each scenario is unique, and the values of trade offers depend on many factors. But when it comes to potential franchise qbs, the dynamics of value should be calculated in a fundamentally different way.

Also—if the browns HAD used their picks wisely, they’d be a mediocre team— and thus would lose out on future chances at a top pick!

The Browns sat at #2 overall in 2016 and #1 overall in 2017 and failed to land a franchise QB. To me, that is unforgivable. Never mind the points or the picks or the pundits.

How much is a franchise QB REALLY worth? Hard to say, but... an extra 200 or 500 or even a thousand “points in draft value” sure don’t mean squat when you fail to land your QB.

 

[Angry Ram]

Philly is 6-1 with the best record in the league. LA is 5-2 with the second best record, along with being the highest scoring team.

I don't think either team gives a damn about "draft value" or whatever other over-analyzed BS.

 

[kurtfaulk]

The browns have botched their chance to grab a good qb by trading down then drafting a stiff at the end of the 1st round/early 2nd round so many times it's criminal. When will they realise they have no idea how to do it?

As to your example, they have bought plenty of $6000 cars for $5000 but never have a driver that knows how to drive the damn car.

They're broken to the point that even if they do draft a good qb they would probably ruin his career, like fisher would've done to Goff. So i guess it doesn't matter what they do. Just contradicted myself there.

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[XXXIVwin]

I thought the Rams were 100% right to move up to #1– I thought that shortly before th trade (when it was rumored), after the trade, last year, and this year. Last year was rough to be sure, but I never stopped believing the Rams had made a wise choice in moving up. Frankly , even if Goff had been a bust, I think it would have been the correct calculated risk. When a franchise is lacking a QB, you gotta keep trying until you get it right.

And yes, absolutely, I think the Browns should have taken either Trubisky or Watson. (I thought Watson should have gone #1). Who cares if they would have gotten flak. Instead they got praise for their draft haul and now they are 0-7. Remember when the Eagles were booed mercilessly for picking McNabb?

Yes, pre-draft I was high on goff and down on Wentz. Wentz is better than I thought he’d be. At the time I would have been “disappointed” about missing out on Goff. But missing BOTH? That would have been far worse.

Had the Rams been picking #2, I would have gladly taken whichever QB was left.

 

[XXXIVwin]

Just re-watched the draft war-room scene in “All or Nothing” in which Snead correctly calls the Bears trade for Trubisky. Snead turns to McVay and the others and says, “We’ve been there before, when we needed a QB. So I’ll never pass judgment when a team needs a QB.”

I agree with Snead. Bottom line, if your team needs a QB, go get him, even if you have to “overpay” and it’s unpopular at first.

 

[Ram65]

The browns have botched their chance to grab a good qb by trading down then drafting a stiff at the end of the 1st round/early 2nd round so many times it's criminal. When will they realise they have no idea how to do it?

As to your example, they have bought plenty of $6000 cars for $5000 but never have a driver that knows how to drive the damn car.

They're broken to the point that even if they do draft a good qb they would probably ruin his career, like fisher would've done to Goff. So i guess it doesn't matter what they do. Just contradicted myself there.

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Sure seems like they can't make a right decision.

I didn't understand their thinking when it came to trading the #2 pick when Wentz would have been theirs had they kept the pick. Wentz and Goff were at the head of the quarterback class on 2016. Neither one was a guaranteed franchise quarterback but, both had the physical and mental ability to at the very least be better than average QBs. For some reason the Browns liked Goff over Wentz. Carson Wentz was made for a team that plays in cold weather with windy conditions. He can run and throw through the weather conditions that Cleveland faces at home and in the division. All the Browns had to do was stay at #2 and make Wentz their pick. I didn't understand it then and now it's obvious that Wentz should have been the pick.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Sure seems like they can't make a right decision.

I didn't understand their thinking when it came to trading the #2 pick when Wentz would have been theirs had they kept the pick. Wentz and Goff were at the head of the quarterback class on 2016. Neither one was a guaranteed franchise quarterback but, both had the physical and mental ability to at the very least be better than average QBs. For some reason the Browns liked Goff over Wentz. Carson Wentz was made for a team that plays in cold weather with windy conditions. He can run and throw through the weather conditions that Cleveland faces at home and in the division. All the Browns had to do was stay at #2 and make Wentz their pick. I didn't understand it then and now it's obvious that Wentz should have been the pick.

I couldn't understand what they did this year more so. They already used their #1 pick one a stud de and were sitting there at #12 with Watson falling into their lap. Beyond belief.

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[Ram65]

I couldn't understand what they did this year more so. They already used their #1 pick one a stud de and were sitting there at #12 with Watson falling into their lap. Beyond belief.

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Well it's a pickem. Watching Watson right now. Duel threat. Just hit Fuller for 2nd TD against the Hags. He is a handful.

 

[Soul Surfer]

The Case For Overpaying For QBs In Draft Trades.
(Condensed version) ;

Exhibit a) Jared Goff.
Exhibit b) Carson Wentz

 

[nighttrain]

The Case For Overpaying For QBs In Draft Trades.
(Condensed version) ;

Exhibit a) Jared Goff.
Exhibit b) Carson Wentz

Exhibit C) can't win without one

 

[DR RAM]

I've always believed that draft picks are overvalued in these trades. IF you get a guy who plays QB for you for the next 15 seasons, what is that worth? A lot more than a couple high picks IMO. And the Browns are demonstrating what happens when you don't have a QB; they have a strong offensive coach and all manner of picks and it doesn't matter.

Secondly, when we ask the question "what is a hit on a first round pick," the answer will change person to person and probably team to team. Getting a solid starter isn't necessarily a "hit" on a round one pick in my book. Why? Because it's playmakers who make the difference in this league, and the best place to get them is round one. So the question of how many teams really hit on the round one picks is an interesting one to me in that light, leading me to think that in a lot of these blockbuster trades the team that goes after one player like that probably has a higher chance of hitting than the average team that gets the returns.

And of course if you miss on the QB you lose. But even then I disregard the commonly accepted logic that you set your franchise back years when that happens. Teams can be built without the round one picks.

So back to Goff, it was very shrewd of the Rams to trade up and solve their QB problems. Not just because they hit on Jared, but because it's a smart play IMO if you don't have a QB and you believe one is there that you can build around. I don't even think the term "overpaying" is accurate, should be "paying the price to get a QB."

And...we did pretty well with our remaining picks. Looks like a lot of hits to me, especially when no picks are guaranteed to succeed.

 

[XXXIVwin]

I couldn't understand what they did this year more so. They already used their #1 pick one a stud de and were sitting there at #12 with Watson falling into their lap. Beyond belief.

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kurtfaulk, I had forgotten that the Browns passed on Deshaun Watson TWICE on draft day, at #1 and again at #12. Amazing. Check out this article, “If the Browns pass on DeShaun Watson it’ll be like passing on Michael Jordan.” What idiots
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2017/01/dabo_sweeney_on_hue_jackson_if.html