Should We Trade Todd Gurley ?

[Memento]

Trade Gurley? How about fuck and no?

Gurley just needs a better offensive line to run behind. Remember 2016? Would you have traded him then?

 

[Loyal]

Dude this video literally has NOTHING informative than is different with any other player on our roster. Evaluation like this happens for EVERY player on the roster on how the can contribute and what their salary dictates.

MCSnead and their teams are working overtime right now before final decisions have to be made next month. Speculation one way or another is meaningless this time of year just like mock drafts are.

DENIER! Old School and I believe they wouldn't print something unless it's true!

 

[Merlin]

don't we all.

.

Epic.

 

[Merlin]

Dude this video literally has NOTHING informative than is different with any other player on our roster. Evaluation like this happens for EVERY player on the roster on how the can contribute and what their salary dictates.

MCSnead and their teams are working overtime right now before final decisions have to be made next month. Speculation one way or another is meaningless this time of year just like mock drafts are.

This is the curse of being a hardcore fan which is basically most of us here IMO... You cannot enjoy most articles online about your team.

And I would rather have a fuckin tooth pulled than read Lindsey Thiry.

 

[VegasRam]

And I would rather have a fuckin tooth pulled than read Lindsey Thiry.

She is fucking useless.
(So was Waggoner, but he wasn't a shit-stirrer like Thiry).

 

[Memento]

She is fucking useless.
(So was Waggoner, but he wasn't a shit-stirrer like Thiry).

Bernie was a trillion times worse. As a St. Louisan, I hate that man's guts.

 

[FrantikRam]

The problem in 2019 was that the rest of the RB room failed to live up to the "carry count" of 15 the Rams obviously had for him. Which goes back to the OL as well as the quality of the RB room depth.

Had the OL and RB room been capable of executing the team's plan, we wouldn't have seen as much a dip in offensive potency with Gurley being "saved" for the playoffs. In other words, IMO there was nothing wrong with the plan, the problem was the players and maybe a bit of the staff not being up to snuff.

Fast forward to this season and understanding that there is zero benefit to moving Todd now, I can say again with 100% confidence that IF they move him it will be because he was a distraction or problem behind the scenes. Failing that, there is zero reason to move him.

Projecting the offseason outside of Gurley, we can rest assured that improving the OL and RB room will be on the table. The run game is critical in McVay's offense with the way everything is married together and works off each other. IMO there will be new blood on the roster at both position groups.

With all due respect, none of us have any clue that that is the case. In fact, there's evidence that contradicts your point:

Malcolm Brown:

Week 1 - 11/53/2
Week 2 - 6/37
Week 3 - 3/7
Week 4 - 5/14
Week 5 - 1/3
Week 6 - 11/40 (Gurley out)


Then he missed the Falcon and Bengal games. But let's just stop here. What the hell happened? He was doing really well in weeks 1 and 2 and then starting in week 3, got significantly less playing time.

Week 3 - we passed A LOT more - well if you remember, the Browns were missing their entire starting secondary - it made sense to pass more. No problem with Brown not getting carries - why is it a conversation then? Because the offense was not good in that game. But that lies on Goff, if anyone.

Week 4 was the infamous Bucs game with little running. Week 5 Goff tore Seattle up.

I'm not claiming to know what happened, but I think there is a more logical conclusion to draw: we tried and failed to transition to a pass first offense utilizing a short passing game. Especially against teams that we should have been able to pass on.

 

[Merlin]

Then he missed the Falcon and Bengal games. But let's just stop here. What the hell happened? He was doing really well in weeks 1 and 2 and then starting in week 3, got significantly less playing time.

Week 3 - we passed A LOT more - well if you remember, the Browns were missing their entire starting secondary - it made sense to pass more. No problem with Brown not getting carries - why is it a conversation then? Because the offense was not good in that game. But that lies on Goff, if anyone.

When I look at a run game, Frantik, I look at success rate (SR)...

Todd Gurley in 2018 was an MVP level performer, with a SR of 57%. To get into that rarefied air where a back converts more than half his carries for success, it requires a good line as well as a good scheme and passing game (they complement each other). In fact if you look at the link and note the SR rate of two backs in the top 5 for the Saints then sort them by 2019 you will see the loss of Ingram was huge for them.

Todd Gurley in 2019 dipped to a SR of 48%. There were numerous reasons for this with all the interdependence you have in an offense, but the biggest contributor was him being hit before he gets rolling, smaller holes, and more tacklers with a chance to get a hit on him. The OL was without a doubt the biggest contributor.

So looking at the stats as well as in combination with reviewing the game film every weak post-game I believe Gurley's SR rate dip demonstrates that the OL took a dive in 2019. And yes some of it was him and I put up stills of him missing obvious holes early in the season. And some of it was the scheme with what seemed like more reach blocks and poorly gameplanned/schemed runs than we had in 2018 (which is very hard to quantify outside of extreme nuking so let's just call this my opinion lol).

The other stat you'll see on that site I linked is DVoA which is the RB's value per play based on gainers. So the way to use them is a RB who has a high SR but a low DVoA is a chain mover. A RB on the other end of the spectrum who has a high DVoA but low SR is a breakaway back. In an ideal offense you need both to be as high as possible, and in fact in 2018 Gurley was elite in both. In 2019 he dipped greatly there as well, with a DVoA of -3.3% which is below average and at a 25th ranking in the league.

Brown and the rest of the depth backs didn't get enough carries to fall into the chart, however his -0.8% puts him below average as does Hendy's -11.4%.

In summary I don't think our OL was good enough first off. And were most to blame obviously. But the RB room also has to be better at being able to spell Gurley with a good SR at the very least. If they improve the line I think Hendy's DVoA will go up a ton, but his SR might not be too great, i.e. he's a breakaway type back. Brown's SR should go up, but with him my concern is moreso his tendency to get dinged up quickly with carries.

 

[Merlin]

Oh and before I forget re: the above Brown's -0.8% DVoA being the best among the Rams' backs (even in a small sample size) demonstrates his power running style handling the contact in the backfield better than the other two.

 

[Kevin]

I hate all these goddam baseball cyber metric statistics that don't mean shit.

 

[bubbaramfan]

HX76, How about this gal?

 

[BonifayRam]

View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2875133-todd-gurley-rumors-sean-mcvay-to-meet-with-rams-rb-before-deciding-his-future

Todd Gurley Rumors: Sean McVay to Meet with Rams RB Before Deciding His Future
Tim Daniels
February 6, 2020

Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay and running back Todd Gurley will reportedly meet to discuss his usage during the 2019 season and the health of his left knee before deciding how to move forward.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported the update Thursday:

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
From NFL Now: The #Rams have a decision to make on how to proceed with RB Todd Gurley, but they will meet with him first to discuss this year -- his knee, the plans, and how to proceed going forward. All options are on the table. https://t.co/r0vE0vEmVI

Gurley, who led the NFL with 1,229 touches from 2015 through 2018 (via Pro Football Reference), didn't record his first 20-carry game of the 2019 campaign until Week 11 against the Chicago Bears.

The 25-year-old University of Georgia product finished the year with 223 carries for 857 yards (3.8 yards per carry) and 12 touchdowns. His 31 catches were the lowest total since his rookie season.

Los Angeles Rams @RamsNFL
TODD GURLEY STIFF ARM @TG3II x #ProBowlVote https://t.co/oiKfrQvvf0

After the 2019 season, Gurley shrugged off questions about his health, which first amplified after his limited usage during the 2018 playoffs.

"Nah, man, just some rest," he told reporters after being asked whether he needed any offseason surgeries. "... For the most part, I was able to finish out the season healthy."

Gurley is entering the first year of his four-year, $57.5 million contract extension with the Rams. He's due a $7.55 million roster bonus on March 15, and his 2020 salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 20, per Spotrac.

That means L.A. effectively has a month to decide whether to keep the three-time Pro Bowler or release him for $4.65 million in salary-cap savings for 2020.

The Rams don't have an obvious replacement for Gurley on their roster. Neither Malcolm Brown (3.7 YPC) nor Darrell Henderson Jr. (3.8 YPC) were overly impressive in reserve roles last season.

That creates a complex situation for Los Angeles, which dropped to 9-7 and failed to make the playoffs in 2019 after going 13-3 and reaching the Super Bowl in 2018.

 

[Merlin]

I have to admit it gives me pause that McVay and Gurley will be "sitting down." Was that a thing last offseason I cannot recall.

Re: the rest of the RB room it would not surprise me in the least if the Rams were to draft a back like Zack Moss to ensure they have chain mover / SR type. Also I believe the Rams covet broken tackles and yards after contact both of which are areas Moss has skills. There are certainly RB options though all through this draft so it would be more of a surprise if the Rams didn't upgrade their depth at the least.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Rams to meet with Todd Gurley to discuss 2020 status

We begin another offseason the way the last one finished, with questions about Todd Gurley. Rams brass plans to meet with Gurley this offseason to discuss his status for the 2020 season.

www.nfl.com

I think this lays out in more detail what Rapport was saying. Basically, they'll meet but there's not really a lot of options for the Rams except keeping him.

 

[OldSchool]

Rams to meet with Todd Gurley to discuss 2020 status

We begin another offseason the way the last one finished, with questions about Todd Gurley. Rams brass plans to meet with Gurley this offseason to discuss his status for the 2020 season.

www.nfl.com

I think this lays out in more detail what Rapport was saying. Basically, they'll meet but there's not really a lot of options for the Rams except keeping him.

Article seems to reinforce the numbers that trading or cutting him this year doesn’t save us money it costs us a bigger cap him.

 

[Varg6]

Restructure his contract, along with Goff. If they want to win and have assets to do that, they’ll negotiate. Hopefully Gurley doesn’t pull a Bradford (at least Gurley plays).

 

[Reddog99]

Not that I think they will but I will be disappointed if they let Gurley go. Before doing something so drastic I suggest they get him a better OL, work on some play designs and up his carries. We need to atleast find out if he's the problem or if hes just a victim of circumstance. If we fix everything around him and he's still not getting it done then I understand moving on from him. But it's not going to benefit cutting him at this point due to money and roster holes. Imo keep him another season and run him at wide open throttle and if he breaks we will know what we have and likely he will realize it's over for him. But if it goes the way I think it's going to after he gets better blocking then the doubters tunes might change. If nothing else give the guy another year to prove if he's still got it or not and if we don't want him after that then maybe his play was good enough to catch another team's eye. Hes too good of a guy and team player to just dump him when nobody else will roll the dice on him. Hes done the Rams well and I realize hes being compensated but he deserves better than to fade into irrelevancy especially if he has something left in the tank.

 

[So Ram]

I think your the one with the blinders on. With the amount of return to money still spent towards the cap even trading him it makes zero sense to trade him this year. Zero. None. Especially creating a hole which we’ll need to fill with somebody who there is a good chance we can’t get as much a consistent player.

just watched NFL live today. Trading Gurley was one of the topics. Should The Rams trade Todd Gurley our of a level of 10. They said it would be hard to trade him,but More than likely will try. 7/8
Old School already said there is zero chance as well. I think The Rams should trade him if they can . I’m cool if they don’t.

 

[So Ram]

Excellent point.

I fixed it.

Thanks

 

[WestCoastRam]

I'm not trying to put anyone on the spot here, this is more of a rhetorical question: Can anyone name one team in the NFL that would trade for Gurley and that contract with his injury history and his production the last season and a half???

Unless there is some crazy cap/pick maneuvering where we get someone to buy the contract with a pick and player ala Osweiller, I don't see it.

Are you guys willing to give up a 2nd round pick for that to happen??

BTW, all of this would have to happen before mid march for us to not eat his roster bonus.