One other thing I'll point out in regards to Kupp is that the 40 yard splits can speak volumes. One thing I pointed out about Alshon when he was coming out was how slow his 10 yard split was but how impressive his 10 to 40 yard split was. I compared Alshon's 10 to 40 yard split with guys who were known for being speedy deep threats, and Alshon was on par with guys like DeSean Jackson and Julio Jones in terms of his 10 to 40 yard split.(while having a 10 yard split that was more comparable to TEs)
My point then was that Alshon's film bore that out. He was a long strider who separated deep well, but he looked slow on short routes. On those routes, he won with his frame and catch point dominance. I pointed out that was unlikely to change in the NFL. He'd be a guy who thrived on attacking teams on the intermediate and deep levels but would have to win at the catch point on short passes.
Cooper Kupp is very much the opposite of that. While Kupp ran a 4.61 40 (Pro Day), his 10 yard split was a 1.57 (Combine splits haven't come out yet). When you compare that to the 10 yard splits of WRs from the 2016 draft who were similar in terms of height and weight (the 2017 10 yard splits aren't all out yet, that's why I chose 2016), you find that Kupp's 10 yard split corresponds to a 40 time in the range of a 4.47 to 4.50. Basically, over the first 10 yards, Kupp has the speed of a guy who would typically run a 4.47 to 4.50. Unfortunately, in the 10 to 40 yard range, he's quite slow. Oddly enough, his slowness is contained entirely in the 10 to 20 yard range (1.13 10 to 20 yard split). His 1.91 20 to 40 yard split is pretty solid.
Here are the 2016 players to show his speed on the 10 yard split:
Jordan Payton (6'1" 207) - 1.57 10 yard split (4.47 40)
Mike Thomas [Rams] (6'1" 193) - 1.59 10 yard split (4.54 40)
Josh Doctson (6'2" 200) - 1.58 10 yard split (4.50 40)
The really odd thing is that it's fairly normal to have a 10 to 20 yard split in the 1.00 to 1.05 range. Kupp's 1.13 split is abnormally slow. But his 1.91 split over the final 20 yards is actually fairly average. I'm not sure how to explain it. I'll be interested to see what his Combine splits are and if they reflect the same abnormality.
Anyways, getting back to my point, Kupp's 10 yard split reflects his film. It shows that he's quick off the line. He has great stop/start acceleration. His agility drills (short shuttle and three cone drill) also highlight that and show off his agility and change of direction ability.
When you consider the reality of today's game, I think Kupp's skill-set is quite valuable. He's a guy who will win at a high level within 10 to 15 yards of the LOS. If you look at the splits of QB attempts, they reflect the fact that about 60% to 70% of passes are thrown within 10 yards of the LOS. Another 15% to 25% are thrown in the 11 to 20 yard range. That leaves only about 10% to 20% of attempts thrown in the 21+ yard range of the field. Kirk Cousins, for example, attempted 69% of his passes within 10 yards of the LOS, 19% of his passes in the 11 to 20 yard range, and 12% of his passes in the 21+ yard range of the field.
What's my point here? Kupp is going to be extremely difficult to stop on routes that occur in the ranges where around 75% to 80% of attempts are thrown. Why are we so focused on the range where so few attempts are thrown?
Further, a lack of speed doesn't necessarily stop a guy from being effective as a deep threat. Coaches can scheme guys openings. WRs can also create openings using their skill and mental acuity. I posted two videos of Kupp catching deep balls at the Senior Bowl recently. Those two plays show how a WR can use skill and intelligence to make plays down the field. If anyone wants, I can go in more detail tomorrow. Let me know if anyone wants a short (okay, probably long) breakdown of that. I figure y'all must be getting sick of me hyping Kupp.
