Rams strategy at pick #37 is gonna be fascinating...

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LACHAMP46

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No, we don't know about our 2nd year guys, but there is a reason they were drafted in the 4th round or later.
Not necessarily due to talent....injuries and personal makeup could be the deciding factor.
You don't need elite speed to be a successful WR which I'd expect you'd know with the likes of Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce playing for us recently.
I call BS....in today's game you speed and quickness more than ever...otherwise, you're JAG.
Holt is particularly fast....Bruce was decent....neither ran anything like a 4.6
 

12intheBox

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Not necessarily due to talent....injuries and personal makeup could be the deciding factor.
I call BS....in today's game you speed and quickness more than ever...otherwise, you're JAG.
Holt is particularly fast....Bruce was decent....neither ran anything like a 4.6

Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 - you think he would be JAG in today's game?
 

Ram65

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One other thing I'll point out in regards to Kupp is that the 40 yard splits can speak volumes. One thing I pointed out about Alshon when he was coming out was how slow his 10 yard split was but how impressive his 10 to 40 yard split was. I compared Alshon's 10 to 40 yard split with guys who were known for being speedy deep threats, and Alshon was on par with guys like DeSean Jackson and Julio Jones in terms of his 10 to 40 yard split.(while having a 10 yard split that was more comparable to TEs)

My point then was that Alshon's film bore that out. He was a long strider who separated deep well, but he looked slow on short routes. On those routes, he won with his frame and catch point dominance. I pointed out that was unlikely to change in the NFL. He'd be a guy who thrived on attacking teams on the intermediate and deep levels but would have to win at the catch point on short passes.

Cooper Kupp is very much the opposite of that. While Kupp ran a 4.61 40 (Pro Day), his 10 yard split was a 1.57 (Combine splits haven't come out yet). When you compare that to the 10 yard splits of WRs from the 2016 draft who were similar in terms of height and weight (the 2017 10 yard splits aren't all out yet, that's why I chose 2016), you find that Kupp's 10 yard split corresponds to a 40 time in the range of a 4.47 to 4.50. Basically, over the first 10 yards, Kupp has the speed of a guy who would typically run a 4.47 to 4.50. Unfortunately, in the 10 to 40 yard range, he's quite slow. Oddly enough, his slowness is contained entirely in the 10 to 20 yard range (1.13 10 to 20 yard split). His 1.91 20 to 40 yard split is pretty solid.

Here are the 2016 players to show his speed on the 10 yard split:
Jordan Payton (6'1" 207) - 1.57 10 yard split (4.47 40)
Mike Thomas [Rams] (6'1" 193) - 1.59 10 yard split (4.54 40)
Josh Doctson (6'2" 200) - 1.58 10 yard split (4.50 40)

The really odd thing is that it's fairly normal to have a 10 to 20 yard split in the 1.00 to 1.05 range. Kupp's 1.13 split is abnormally slow. But his 1.91 split over the final 20 yards is actually fairly average. I'm not sure how to explain it. I'll be interested to see what his Combine splits are and if they reflect the same abnormality.

Anyways, getting back to my point, Kupp's 10 yard split reflects his film. It shows that he's quick off the line. He has great stop/start acceleration. His agility drills (short shuttle and three cone drill) also highlight that and show off his agility and change of direction ability.

When you consider the reality of today's game, I think Kupp's skill-set is quite valuable. He's a guy who will win at a high level within 10 to 15 yards of the LOS. If you look at the splits of QB attempts, they reflect the fact that about 60% to 70% of passes are thrown within 10 yards of the LOS. Another 15% to 25% are thrown in the 11 to 20 yard range. That leaves only about 10% to 20% of attempts thrown in the 21+ yard range of the field. Kirk Cousins, for example, attempted 69% of his passes within 10 yards of the LOS, 19% of his passes in the 11 to 20 yard range, and 12% of his passes in the 21+ yard range of the field.

What's my point here? Kupp is going to be extremely difficult to stop on routes that occur in the ranges where around 75% to 80% of attempts are thrown. Why are we so focused on the range where so few attempts are thrown?

Further, a lack of speed doesn't necessarily stop a guy from being effective as a deep threat. Coaches can scheme guys openings. WRs can also create openings using their skill and mental acuity. I posted two videos of Kupp catching deep balls at the Senior Bowl recently. Those two plays show how a WR can use skill and intelligence to make plays down the field. If anyone wants, I can go in more detail tomorrow. Let me know if anyone wants a short (okay, probably long) breakdown of that. I figure y'all must be getting sick of me hyping Kupp.
One other thing I'll point out in regards to Kupp is that the 40 yard splits can speak volumes. One thing I pointed out about Alshon when he was coming out was how slow his 10 yard split was but how impressive his 10 to 40 yard split was. I compared Alshon's 10 to 40 yard split with guys who were known for being speedy deep threats, and Alshon was on par with guys like DeSean Jackson and Julio Jones in terms of his 10 to 40 yard split.(while having a 10 yard split that was more comparable to TEs)

My point then was that Alshon's film bore that out. He was a long strider who separated deep well, but he looked slow on short routes. On those routes, he won with his frame and catch point dominance. I pointed out that was unlikely to change in the NFL. He'd be a guy who thrived on attacking teams on the intermediate and deep levels but would have to win at the catch point on short passes.

Cooper Kupp is very much the opposite of that. While Kupp ran a 4.61 40 (Pro Day), his 10 yard split was a 1.57 (Combine splits haven't come out yet). When you compare that to the 10 yard splits of WRs from the 2016 draft who were similar in terms of height and weight (the 2017 10 yard splits aren't all out yet, that's why I chose 2016), you find that Kupp's 10 yard split corresponds to a 40 time in the range of a 4.47 to 4.50. Basically, over the first 10 yards, Kupp has the speed of a guy who would typically run a 4.47 to 4.50. Unfortunately, in the 10 to 40 yard range, he's quite slow. Oddly enough, his slowness is contained entirely in the 10 to 20 yard range (1.13 10 to 20 yard split). His 1.91 20 to 40 yard split is pretty solid.

Here are the 2016 players to show his speed on the 10 yard split:
Jordan Payton (6'1" 207) - 1.57 10 yard split (4.47 40)
Mike Thomas [Rams] (6'1" 193) - 1.59 10 yard split (4.54 40)
Josh Doctson (6'2" 200) - 1.58 10 yard split (4.50 40)

The really odd thing is that it's fairly normal to have a 10 to 20 yard split in the 1.00 to 1.05 range. Kupp's 1.13 split is abnormally slow. But his 1.91 split over the final 20 yards is actually fairly average. I'm not sure how to explain it. I'll be interested to see what his Combine splits are and if they reflect the same abnormality.

Anyways, getting back to my point, Kupp's 10 yard split reflects his film. It shows that he's quick off the line. He has great stop/start acceleration. His agility drills (short shuttle and three cone drill) also highlight that and show off his agility and change of direction ability.

When you consider the reality of today's game, I think Kupp's skill-set is quite valuable. He's a guy who will win at a high level within 10 to 15 yards of the LOS. If you look at the splits of QB attempts, they reflect the fact that about 60% to 70% of passes are thrown within 10 yards of the LOS. Another 15% to 25% are thrown in the 11 to 20 yard range. That leaves only about 10% to 20% of attempts thrown in the 21+ yard range of the field. Kirk Cousins, for example, attempted 69% of his passes within 10 yards of the LOS, 19% of his passes in the 11 to 20 yard range, and 12% of his passes in the 21+ yard range of the field.

What's my point here? Kupp is going to be extremely difficult to stop on routes that occur in the ranges where around 75% to 80% of attempts are thrown. Why are we so focused on the range where so few attempts are thrown?

Further, a lack of speed doesn't necessarily stop a guy from being effective as a deep threat. Coaches can scheme guys openings. WRs can also create openings using their skill and mental acuity. I posted two videos of Kupp catching deep balls at the Senior Bowl recently. Those two plays show how a WR can use skill and intelligence to make plays down the field. If anyone wants, I can go in more detail tomorrow. Let me know if anyone wants a short (okay, probably long) breakdown of that. I figure y'all must be getting sick of me hyping Kupp.

That is some sick research @jrry32. Very enjoyable and interesting read.
 

wolfdogg

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Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan Boldin, Jarvis Landry, Brandon Marshall, Jerry Rice, Michael Thomas (Saints), Kelvin Benjamin, Willie Snead, Allen Robinson, etc. all seemed to get more than enough separation. However, Stephen Hill, Troy Williamson, Donnie Avery, A.J. Jenkins, Derrius Heyward-Bey, etc. never seemed to be able to capitalize on the separation their speed supposedly brought them.

Straight-line speed is an extremely overrated attribute. Separation in the NFL generally comes from change of direction ability and route running skill. Shockingly, those are two of Kupp's biggest strengths.


welker ran a 4.7 forty, but he's a mouse and hard to cover within 10 yards. Oh, and he's probably going to canton.
 

jrry32

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I call BS....in today's game you speed and quickness more than ever...otherwise, you're JAG.

Yet, there are a number of successful WRs who are playing today or played recently who posted 40s slower than a 4.55. Some of them posted 40s slower than a 4.70.
 
Last edited:

Corbin

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Not necessarily due to talent....injuries and personal makeup could be the deciding factor.
I call BS....in today's game you speed and quickness more than ever...otherwise, you're JAG.
Holt is particularly fast....Bruce was decent....neither ran anything like a 4.6
Meh... your boy Quick ran a 4.5 but he was still a bag of shit. Rather have someone who can run a route rather than a speedster like the Raiders seemed to always draft.
 

A.J. Hicks

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Something I've heard talked about with athletes through out my life is 'That guy has different gears'

That is something that is evident in Kupp's film. Sure his 40 time may not have tested off the charts, but he knows how to use different levels of speed (gears). Being able to do that is a huge weapon and is evident in his route running.
 

Corbin

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40 catches 500+ yards.....
 

Fatbot

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Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 - you think he would be JAG in today's game?
I imagine this was intended as a rhetorical question, but my opinion is yes he would likely be a JAG now due to how much his circumstances made his success and how much those circumstances have changed.

It's always hard to translate players from the past into today's circumstances. Maybe could make better guesses with Fifi, since he played more recently, than wondering how other past greats like Don Hutson, Tom Fears, Crazy Legs Hirsch, Henry Ellard, etc., would fare, but still the speed of defenses has changed incredibly just in the past few years that it's hard to say definitively, even with a player that retired just a decade or even five years ago.

The defensive personnel on rosters is smaller & faster, and the on field scheme has changed from the 4 DBs Rice mostly faced to the norm of 5, 6 or 7 of today. Today's "LBs" have zero relation to a 1980s LB, they would have been strong safeties. This is a huge difference because the square footage of field turf 4 DBs have to account for is exponentially more than when you have 6, and a lightning fast LB filling the slant lane is far different than a plodding LB built to take on hogs and stuff the run.

When the old 49er scheme was a new gimmick it could exploit those gaps in the secondary, and Rice got that benefit that no other WR was getting. Today, every offense runs versions of those old west coast schemes, so Rice would be doing something every WR is doing now instead of having the benefit of that uniqueness.

Thanks to constant rules changes favoring the offense it's taken defenses longer and longer to try to catch up and adjust -- and in fact they still have no good answer to the short pass -- but obviously defenses have transitioned from a mentality of trying to contest every catch to allowing short, harmless completions -- indeed, inviting them.

A quick glance at total league-wide yards after catch (YAC) shows that it's trending down the last 3 years -- which is insane considering that we are witnessing historically best completion percentages. You'd think just by the avalanche of short passes the total would be going up, up, up. But defenses are clearly giving up on trying to prevent short completions or even make interceptions (also at a low point) -- they would rather allow a catch short of the sticks and use exceptional speed to snuff out any YAC.

In other words, defenses are finally built to be exactly what would have been a terrible matchup for the 1980s 49ers. It would be interesting to go back in time and put a smaller, faster, more DB heavy personnel with the philosophy to stop the YAC up against Rice's 49er teams and see the effect. But sadly it never happened because defenses had to be built to try to stop Tony Dorsett, Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and some of the greatest RBs (and offensive lines) to ever play instead.

Anyway, most won't consider any opinion short of Rice being great, end of discussion, and that's fine -- but to me the answer comes down to how much one believes Rice's success was a product of his environment versus his talent, and I tend to think environment was a bigger factor than most are willing to admit, and that environment has changed in today's game.
 

12intheBox

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I imagine this was intended as a rhetorical question, but my opinion is yes he would likely be a JAG now due to how much his circumstances made his success and how much those circumstances have changed.

It's always hard to translate players from the past into today's circumstances. Maybe could make better guesses with Fifi, since he played more recently, than wondering how other past greats like Don Hutson, Tom Fears, Crazy Legs Hirsch, Henry Ellard, etc., would fare, but still the speed of defenses has changed incredibly just in the past few years that it's hard to say definitively, even with a player that retired just a decade or even five years ago.

The defensive personnel on rosters is smaller & faster, and the on field scheme has changed from the 4 DBs Rice mostly faced to the norm of 5, 6 or 7 of today. Today's "LBs" have zero relation to a 1980s LB, they would have been strong safeties. This is a huge difference because the square footage of field turf 4 DBs have to account for is exponentially more than when you have 6, and a lightning fast LB filling the slant lane is far different than a plodding LB built to take on hogs and stuff the run.

When the old 49er scheme was a new gimmick it could exploit those gaps in the secondary, and Rice got that benefit that no other WR was getting. Today, every offense runs versions of those old west coast schemes, so Rice would be doing something every WR is doing now instead of having the benefit of that uniqueness.

Thanks to constant rules changes favoring the offense it's taken defenses longer and longer to try to catch up and adjust -- and in fact they still have no good answer to the short pass -- but obviously defenses have transitioned from a mentality of trying to contest every catch to allowing short, harmless completions -- indeed, inviting them.

A quick glance at total league-wide yards after catch (YAC) shows that it's trending down the last 3 years -- which is insane considering that we are witnessing historically best completion percentages. You'd think just by the avalanche of short passes the total would be going up, up, up. But defenses are clearly giving up on trying to prevent short completions or even make interceptions (also at a low point) -- they would rather allow a catch short of the sticks and use exceptional speed to snuff out any YAC.

In other words, defenses are finally built to be exactly what would have been a terrible matchup for the 1980s 49ers. It would be interesting to go back in time and put a smaller, faster, more DB heavy personnel with the philosophy to stop the YAC up against Rice's 49er teams and see the effect. But sadly it never happened because defenses had to be built to try to stop Tony Dorsett, Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and some of the greatest RBs (and offensive lines) to ever play instead.

Anyway, most won't consider any opinion short of Rice being great, end of discussion, and that's fine -- but to me the answer comes down to how much one believes Rice's success was a product of his environment versus his talent, and I tend to think environment was a bigger factor than most are willing to admit, and that environment has changed in today's game.

I - like it sounds you do - tend to believe that an average team in todays NFL would outright destroy the best teams of the 60s and 70s but Rice wasn't THAT long ago. You make it sound like Rice never faced elite corners. Deon Sanders was every bit as atheletic as todays best corners and Rice had his way with Deon plenty. To your point - Deon may have been left on an island out there (he usually was) but we are talking about a first ballot hall of famer out there in coverage - getting beaten over and over again by a guy who was nearly a half a second slower in the 40. Jerry never won with his speed anyway - he won with elite body control, positioning, and disguising his routes. Did it help that he had Montana and Young - that he was in an offense ahead of its time? Of course - but not many elite WRs don't have their circumstances to thank. The argument could be made that Rice made the west coast offense possible - as opposed to the other way around.

How nice it would be to be able to settle these type of theoretical questions - but they will always remain questions. This one is a good one.
 

jrry32

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I imagine this was intended as a rhetorical question, but my opinion is yes he would likely be a JAG now due to how much his circumstances made his success and how much those circumstances have changed.

This is 100% wrong. Jerry Rice put up 1211 yards in 2002 at 40 years old. You're nuts if you're trying to claim he would be a JAG in today's NFL. Athletes haven't changed since 2002. There are still guys playing in the NFL who were around in 2002 (Tom Brady, for example).

It's always hard to translate players from the past into today's circumstances. Maybe could make better guesses with Fifi, since he played more recently, than wondering how other past greats like Don Hutson, Tom Fears, Crazy Legs Hirsch, Henry Ellard, etc., would fare, but still the speed of defenses has changed incredibly just in the past few years that it's hard to say definitively, even with a player that retired just a decade or even five years ago.

No, it's not. It's hard to say that with a player who retired 50 years ago. It's not hard to say that with a player who played during the 90s and/or 2000s.

The defensive personnel on rosters is smaller & faster, and the on field scheme has changed from the 4 DBs Rice mostly faced to the norm of 5, 6 or 7 of today. Today's "LBs" have zero relation to a 1980s LB, they would have been strong safeties. This is a huge difference because the square footage of field turf 4 DBs have to account for is exponentially more than when you have 6, and a lightning fast LB filling the slant lane is far different than a plodding LB built to take on hogs and stuff the run.

Yet, rule changes have made it more difficult for DBs to cover WRs and easier for QBs to complete passes.

When the old 49er scheme was a new gimmick it could exploit those gaps in the secondary, and Rice got that benefit that no other WR was getting. Today, every offense runs versions of those old west coast schemes, so Rice would be doing something every WR is doing now instead of having the benefit of that uniqueness.

Rice didn't benefit from uniqueness. Rice benefited from being better than every player he lined up against. He was still producing 1000+ yard seasons in Oakland under Jon Gruden at 39 and 40 years old. He was producing record breaking seasons in the mid 90s in his early 30s. At that point, the WCO had been in San Francisco for well over a decade. It was neither new nor unique.

Rice benefited from the same things that make Antonio Brown dominant today.

Thanks to constant rules changes favoring the offense it's taken defenses longer and longer to try to catch up and adjust -- and in fact they still have no good answer to the short pass -- but obviously defenses have transitioned from a mentality of trying to contest every catch to allowing short, harmless completions -- indeed, inviting them.

A quick glance at total league-wide yards after catch (YAC) shows that it's trending down the last 3 years -- which is insane considering that we are witnessing historically best completion percentages. You'd think just by the avalanche of short passes the total would be going up, up, up. But defenses are clearly giving up on trying to prevent short completions or even make interceptions (also at a low point) -- they would rather allow a catch short of the sticks and use exceptional speed to snuff out any YAC.

In other words, defenses are finally built to be exactly what would have been a terrible matchup for the 1980s 49ers. It would be interesting to go back in time and put a smaller, faster, more DB heavy personnel with the philosophy to stop the YAC up against Rice's 49er teams and see the effect. But sadly it never happened because defenses had to be built to try to stop Tony Dorsett, Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and some of the greatest RBs (and offensive lines) to ever play instead.

None of this would affect how effective Rice would be today. Rice dominated at every depth of the field. And not contesting short passes plays right into the hands of the philosophy behind a WCO.

Anyway, most won't consider any opinion short of Rice being great, end of discussion, and that's fine -- but to me the answer comes down to how much one believes Rice's success was a product of his environment versus his talent, and I tend to think environment was a bigger factor than most are willing to admit, and that environment has changed in today's game.

The environment in today's game is more conducive to success for WRs like Rice, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, etc. than ever. Defenses are handcuffed by rules favoring offenses. Offensive schemes have evolved to become better and better at creating efficient and productive passing attacks. Passing offenses have never been more effective. You're nuts to think that would slow down guys who dominated doing the same things that WRs do today.

Rice wasn't a product of his environment. Rice was the best to ever play his position..