NFL Black Monday Primer: Coaching hiring/firing discussion

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Raptorman

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LOL, only 3 teams in the league give up less than 18 PPG this year.
I'll admit, I winged that one. It should have been 20 points per game. Fact is, teams that give up 23 points per game are very seldom double digit win teams. In the last 3 years only 4 teams had double digit wins and gave up more than 23 points a game. All were last year. The Packers, Dolphins, Raiders and Falcons. The only team that did anything was the Falcons. And they couldn't stop New England in the Super bowl. The average record of teams that give up 23 points per game is 8-8. You will have some teams that do win giving up that many points, but they very seldom go far in the playoffs.

BTW, want to guess how many times the Patriots have giving up 23 points a game since Belicheat took over? 0. The Pats have averages 18.8 points per game on defense in the Belicheat era.
Pats SB years.
2003 14.9 ppg won SB
2016 15.6 ppg won SB
2004 16.3 ppg won SB
2001 17.0 ppg won SB
2014 19.6 ppg won SB.

Pats worst years, 2002 21.6 points per game 9-7, 2000, 21.2 5-11. Belicheats only losing season. Those are also the only two years without double digit wins.

Edit: And let me add this.
1999 Rams. 32.8 ppg on offense, on defense, 15.1 ppg.
2000 Rams 33.7 ppg on offense, but, 29.4 on defense and they lost in the WC round.
2001 Rams 31.4 ppg on offense, 17.0 ppg on defense and they lost in the SB to NE Whose
defense was just a little better.
 
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Merlin

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Keep telling me he's a good DC. I do have one question. If he's so good, why hasn't anyone interviewed him for a HC job since he has been with the Packers?

Wade Phillips isn't getting HC interviews, man he must suck...
 

Raptorman

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Wade Phillips isn't getting HC interviews, man he must suck...
Dom Capers history of being a DC goes like this. First year or two in, great changes. Then the teams go down hill. Jacksonville. First year, 1 in points per game next year, 16. Then to HC in Houston. Houston was never higher than 15 in ppg on defense. Then to DC in Miami. First year there 5th in ppg. Next year, 30th. Then he moved to Green Bay. First two years, 7 and 2 in ppg on defense. Since that second year, they have never cracked the top ten.

Personally as a Vikings fan, I hope he Packers keep him.
 

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Dom Capers history of being a DC goes like this. First year or two in, great changes. Then the teams go down hill. Jacksonville. First year, 1 in points per game next year, 16. Then to HC in Houston. Houston was never higher than 15 in ppg on defense. Then to DC in Miami. First year there 5th in ppg. Next year, 30th. Then he moved to Green Bay. First two years, 7 and 2 in ppg on defense. Since that second year, they have never cracked the top ten.

Personally as a Vikings fan, I hope he Packers keep him.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-on-potential-firing-you-put-the-blinders-on/

Dom Capers on potential firing: You put the blinders on
Posted by Josh Alper on December 29, 2017, 9:58 AM EST

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The last time the Packers missed the playoffs was in 2008 and one of the changes they made before the 2009 season was replacing Bob Sanders as defensive coordinator.

Dom Capers was hired to replace Sanders and has run the defense in Green Bay ever since, but the Packers have missed the playoffs again this season and some have wondered if they’ll make the same change they did the last time. On Thursday, Capers said that he’s not thinking about that or anything else that he can’t control.

“My plans are from week-to-week in this business,” Capers said, via the Wisconsin State Journal. “You learn that after 32 years in the league. My plan right now is to try to get the guys ready to go win a game against the Lions. One thing I’ve learned through a long career is you don’t want to spend any time in this business concerning yourself with things that you don’t have any control over. You put the blinders on, you go to work, you try to be consistent in the way you do things and try to get guys ready to play.”

The Packers are currently 21st in points allowed and 22nd in yards allowed, which is the same spots they held at the end of last season. That may have been good enough to get the Packers in the playoffs again if Aaron Rodgers remained healthy, but he didn’t and we’ll find out soon if that leads to a change at the top of the defensive coaching staff.
 

den-the-coach

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I'm shocked how long the Packers have retained Capers, they need to make a change not sure who they will go with, but John Fox (who I believe will be back with the Giants) or other names will be bantered about. If they keep the scheme a 3-4 then Vance Joseph might be on the short list if he's fired by the Broncos other teams that run the 3-4 defense in the NFL are....Oakland Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs,New York Jets, Washington Redskins, Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans & Houston Texans.
 

den-the-coach

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New York Giants hired Dave Gettleman as their General Manager and it will be interesting to see who he hires as Head Coach because you will here names like Steve Wilks (current DC with Carolina) & John DeFilippo QB Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles and former OC of the Cleveland Browns, but owner Tim Mara stated that Gettleman would most likely hire a coach that has head coaching experience and listening to his press conference seems to prefer a defensive type of Head Coach, so Mike Smith of the Buccaneers has a career coaching record of 66-46 and that will be talked about, however, Smith was 10-22 in his last two years and whoever hires Smith, IMO, will look back on that decision with great disdain.

Gettleman comes off no nonsense and IMO a good fit for the Giants would be current Assistant Head Coach/OL Coach Mike Munchak of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Munchak has a career coaching record of 22-26 at Tennessee and lord knows the Giants need help on the offensive line and Munchak would instantly improve the unit with his coaching alone....Again JMHO.
 

James Otto

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I'll admit, I winged that one. It should have been 20 points per game. Fact is, teams that give up 23 points per game are very seldom double digit win teams. In the last 3 years only 4 teams had double digit wins and gave up more than 23 points a game. All were last year. The Packers, Dolphins, Raiders and Falcons. The only team that did anything was the Falcons. And they couldn't stop New England in the Super bowl. The average record of teams that give up 23 points per game is 8-8. You will have some teams that do win giving up that many points, but they very seldom go far in the playoffs.

BTW, want to guess how many times the Patriots have giving up 23 points a game since Belicheat took over? 0. The Pats have averages 18.8 points per game on defense in the Belicheat era.
Pats SB years.
2003 14.9 ppg won SB
2016 15.6 ppg won SB
2004 16.3 ppg won SB
2001 17.0 ppg won SB
2014 19.6 ppg won SB.

Pats worst years, 2002 21.6 points per game 9-7, 2000, 21.2 5-11. Belicheats only losing season. Those are also the only two years without double digit wins.

Edit: And let me add this.
1999 Rams. 32.8 ppg on offense, on defense, 15.1 ppg.
2000 Rams 33.7 ppg on offense, but, 29.4 on defense and they lost in the WC round.
2001 Rams 31.4 ppg on offense, 17.0 ppg on defense and they lost in the SB to NE Whose
defense was just a little better.

Not arguing, just pointing it out. I like your posts. Defense still wins championships.

My wife and her family are Packers fans. Capers does indeed suck!
 

den-the-coach

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Not arguing, just pointing it out. I like your posts. Defense still wins championships.

My wife and her family are Packers fans. Capers does indeed suck!

IMO, here are a few names to take over in Green Bay.
  1. Rex Ryan (ESPN Analyst) Rex IMO not that good at his current job and if they allow him to bring his brother Rob as Secondary Coach and that might just seal the deal and give Green Bay one of the better DC's ever.
  2. Mike Trgovac - Packers defensive line coach Internal Hire Trgovac has experience as an NFL defensive coordinator and was successful at it. He was the Panthers defensive coordinator from 2003-2008 before joining the Packers, and his group was ranked in the Top 10 in both yards and points allowed three times.
  3. Marion Hobby (Jaguars DL Coach) Hobby is in his first season as the Jaguars defensive line coach and they currently lead the NFL in sacks with 35. In 2016, Hobby was the co-defensive coordinator at Clemson and helped the team win a national title.
 

Merlin

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Dom Capers history of being a DC goes like this. First year or two in, great changes. Then the teams go down hill. Jacksonville. First year, 1 in points per game next year, 16. Then to HC in Houston. Houston was never higher than 15 in ppg on defense. Then to DC in Miami. First year there 5th in ppg. Next year, 30th. Then he moved to Green Bay. First two years, 7 and 2 in ppg on defense. Since that second year, they have never cracked the top ten.

Personally as a Vikings fan, I hope he Packers keep him.

I know his history. And like most fans here I am very well versed in scoring defense and its association with deep playoff runs.

Don't let it bother you so much that we disagree. It happens. I am simply of the opinion that even great coaches need the right pieces, and that he hasn't had them; defense has never been a priority in Green Bay.

And going forward for the Rams, starting this very offseason, that's a concern for me. I think with Wade Phillips the Rams will make sure they add what they need (secondary turnover is pending due to FA, and they need a rush OLB). But there's always that concern that this will be an offensive team moving forward, and I have to admit it worries me a bit.
 

Merlin

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New York Giants hired Dave Gettleman as their General Manager and it will be interesting to see who he hires as Head Coach because you will here names like Steve Wilks (current DC with Carolina) & John DeFilippo QB Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles and former OC of the Cleveland Browns, but owner Tim Mara stated that Gettleman would most likely hire a coach that has head coaching experience and listening to his press conference seems to prefer a defensive type of Head Coach, so Mike Smith of the Buccaneers has a career coaching record of 66-46 and that will be talked about, however, Smith was 10-22 in his last two years and whoever hires Smith, IMO, will look back on that decision with great disdain.

Gettleman comes off no nonsense and IMO a good fit for the Giants would be current Assistant Head Coach/OL Coach Mike Munchak of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Munchak has a career coaching record of 22-26 at Tennessee and lord knows the Giants need help on the offensive line and Munchak would instantly improve the unit with his coaching alone....Again JMHO.

Gettleman was a great hire for the Giants. As to his hiring strategy for his head coach, it wouldn't surprise me if he went after a high profile name. Thing with him is that you know he's going to draft for power and size, so the range of coaches he'll prefer are the guys who believe in good defense, play action, and a strong run game.

But there's a reason why some owners win, and it's good hires. Giants will be back in action before too long, they just need a bit of a housecleaning and some turnover of roster garbage.
 

Merlin

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IMO, here are a few names to take over in Green Bay.
  1. Rex Ryan (ESPN Analyst) Rex IMO not that good at his current job and if they allow him to bring his brother Rob as Secondary Coach and that might just seal the deal and give Green Bay one of the better DC's ever.
  2. Mike Trgovac - Packers defensive line coach Internal Hire Trgovac has experience as an NFL defensive coordinator and was successful at it. He was the Panthers defensive coordinator from 2003-2008 before joining the Packers, and his group was ranked in the Top 10 in both yards and points allowed three times.
  3. Marion Hobby (Jaguars DL Coach) Hobby is in his first season as the Jaguars defensive line coach and they currently lead the NFL in sacks with 35. In 2016, Hobby was the co-defensive coordinator at Clemson and helped the team win a national title.

Replacing McCarthy/Capers with any of those clowns would be a massive dropoff for the Packers. Ryan's a great DC, but that's it; you don't want that dude overseeing offensive philosophy and running the whole thing. Just not cut out for it IMO.

Trgovac and Hobby aren't fits either, and both need seasoning. If they're going to go defense-minded, which I strongly doubt, the guy to chase is Mike Vrabel. But even though they could probably get away with that (given they have an elite vet QB), abandoning their offensive philosophy which is built around their offensive roster would be foolish. They'll bring in someone who's a fit with Aaron Rogers, who has a strong offensive resume, IF they make a change.

I think that it's more likely they scapegoat someone, like Capers, instead of replacing McCarthy, for that reason. There will be some good DCs coming on the market with the coaching fires, so it might be a less impactful way for them to feel like they made positive changes. As mentioned above I don't think their problems are coaching related, but in this business teams can be very much like fans in laying everything at the coach's feet.
 

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Rex Ryan (ESPN Analyst) Rex IMO not that good at his current job and if they allow him to bring his brother Rob as Secondary Coach and that might just seal the deal and give Green Bay one of the better DC's ever.

Rex is the fatter, funnier version of Jeff Fisher. I would agree they would be an upgrade for the Browns but not for a proud organization like the Packers.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/12/29/report-jay-gruden-will-stay-put/

Jay Gruden will stay put
Posted by Josh Alper on December 29, 2017

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Jon Gruden may be making his return to the NFL and the Buccaneers and it looks like he’ll be coaching against his brother if that happens.

The Redskins are on the list of Tampa’s 2018 opponents and Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that the team is not planning to part ways with Jay Gruden. The younger Gruden brother is in his fourth season in Washington and the team can finish 8-8 with a win over the Giants on Sunday.

Per Rapoport, any dissatisfaction with the team’s record is tempered by a “deep understanding” of the toll injuries took on the roster this season. Former NFL exec Michael Lombardi also passes along word that the team is trying to extend members of Gruden’s staff, which serves as further evidence that no big changes are coming.

There had been word of interest from the Bengals in bringing their former offensive coordinator back to replace Marvin Lewis, but a trade seems highly unlikely if the Redskins are going to invest more on coaches from Gruden’s staff.

Gruden’s future wasn’t as highly scrutinized as that of many other coaches around the league and it’s been discussed far less than quarterback Kirk Cousins‘ future in Washington. That question will take longer to answer, although Gruden’s made his opinion clear.
 

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/12/29/jim-schwartz-could-be-the-next-big-hire-in-new-york/

Jim Schwartz could be the next big hire in New York
Posted by Mike Florio on December 29, 2017

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With the Giants hiring G.M. Dave Gettleman only days before the window opens for interviews of assistant coaches whose teams earned bye weeks, the Giants likely will move quickly to begin talking to candidates whose teams will be playing in the divisional round. The ultimate question of who they’ll hire could be secondary to a more important point — do they already know who they want to hire?

Many believe that the search for a new G.M. began with the end in mind, and that Gettleman was the choice all along. If that’s the case, it’s fair to wonder whether consultant (and former Giants G.M.) Ernie Accorsi knew who he hoped to pair with Gettleman from the get-go.

The name that keeps coming up in this regard is Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Although Schwatz and Gettleman have never worked together, the Accorsi connection would be the thing that puts them on the same page. Beyond Schwartz and Accorsi having a common tie to Maryland, it’s believed that Accorsi leans heavily on advice from Patriots coach Bill Belichick. It’s also believed that Belichick has advised Accorsi to recommend that Gettleman hire Schwartz.

Some regard Belichick’s recommendation of Schwartz as an effort to keep offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and V.P. of player personnel Nick Caserio in place for another year. The Gettleman hire necessarily keeps Caserio in New England, which in turns makes McDaniels far less likely to leave for the Giants. By selling Schwartz to Accorsi, Belichick set up a one-two combination that didn’t entail McDaniels or Caserio (or both) from leaving for what would have been, for them, a very attractive job.

Of course, no one knows whether Belichick recommended Schwartz in order to ensure that McDaniels and Caserio would stay. But it would be human nature for Belichick to want to keep his football infrastructure in place for as long as he can. Based on the other jobs that come open in the coming days, it’s possible if not likely that McDaniels and Caserio once again remain in New England.

Which brings the topic back to Schwartz. Though the Philadelphia defense surrendering more than 500 yards to a depleted New York offense 12 days ago may not be a good look for Schwartz, the inability to make quarterback Eli Manning look like the Eli of recent months could make Schwartz more inclined to go along with the apparent plan to try to keep Eli around, at least for another year.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...acts-of-coach-todd-bowles-g-m-mike-maccagnan/

Jets extend contracts of coach Todd Bowles, G.M. Mike Maccagnan
Posted by Michael David Smith on December 29, 2017

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A 5-10 record isn’t exactly a roaring success, but given where expectations for the Jets were heading into this year, you can make a case that five wins is actually pretty good.

That appears to be the view of Jets ownership, which announced today that General Manager Mike Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles have both been given contract extensions.

“We are very happy to have extended both Mike and Todd. During their time here, they have worked together to help the organization build a foundation on which to grow,” Jets CEO Christopher Johnson said in a statement. “They are identifying, developing, and getting productivity out of our players. I believe we are headed in the right direction. This provides us continuity and stability as we continue to move this team towards sustained success. We still have a lot of work to do and I am excited to work closely with both of them as we move forward.”

The Jets have many big question marks, starting with who their starting quarterback will be in 2018 and beyond. But there’s no question about the coach or G.M. Those two are staying put.
 

Merlin

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Wow the Jets surprised me there, keeping Bowles around. That's a really good move, now go get that dude some damn talent, starting at QB.

Schwartz is a fit for Gettleman and his size/power drafting. Only question I'd have there is whether they're going to draft a QB and if so who's their guy that's gonna bring him along and fix Manning's issues. Even if they keep Manning (which I definitely would if I'm GM), they still gotta find his replacement in this draft, given the quality of the position and their draft spot. Maybe a guy like Caldwell, who looks like he'll be available.
 

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I'll admit, I winged that one. It should have been 20 points per game. Fact is, teams that give up 23 points per game are very seldom double digit win teams. In the last 3 years only 4 teams had double digit wins and gave up more than 23 points a game. All were last year. The Packers, Dolphins, Raiders and Falcons. The only team that did anything was the Falcons. And they couldn't stop New England in the Super bowl. The average record of teams that give up 23 points per game is 8-8. You will have some teams that do win giving up that many points, but they very seldom go far in the playoffs.

BTW, want to guess how many times the Patriots have giving up 23 points a game since Belicheat took over? 0. The Pats have averages 18.8 points per game on defense in the Belicheat era.
Pats SB years.
2003 14.9 ppg won SB
2016 15.6 ppg won SB
2004 16.3 ppg won SB
2001 17.0 ppg won SB
2014 19.6 ppg won SB.

Pats worst years, 2002 21.6 points per game 9-7, 2000, 21.2 5-11. Belicheats only losing season. Those are also the only two years without double digit wins.

Edit: And let me add this.
1999 Rams. 32.8 ppg on offense, on defense, 15.1 ppg.
2000 Rams 33.7 ppg on offense, but, 29.4 on defense and they lost in the WC round.
2001 Rams 31.4 ppg on offense, 17.0 ppg on defense and they lost in the SB to NE Whose
defense was just a little better.
Only because they cheated. Never forget that qualifier.
 

den-the-coach

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Replacing McCarthy/Capers

This was not about McCarthy, it was a replacement of Capers their defensive coordinator and iMHO, Rex Ryan if he's a DC, he is one of the best in the NFL IMHO. Now not his brother Rob, who has coordinated defenses in Oakland, Dallas & New Orleans and was the Rams DC for about Ten Minutes in St. Louis, but Rex would be a great hire for Green Bay IMHO.
 

den-the-coach

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Everyone stay the f*** away from Bones, that's all I have to say

Not likely to get a Head Coaching gig for the fact of usually teams don't reach out to special teams coaches and when he was Interim Head Coach, he lost every game, albeit only three games.
 

Merlin

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This was not about McCarthy, it was a replacement of Capers their defensive coordinator and iMHO, Rex Ryan if he's a DC, he is one of the best in the NFL IMHO. Now not his brother Rob, who has coordinated defenses in Oakland, Dallas & New Orleans and was the Rams DC for about Ten Minutes in St. Louis, but Rex would be a great hire for Green Bay IMHO.

Whoops!