Matt Stafford Traded to Rams

[FrantikRam]

There probably is a number.

But for me, I was appalled when the Titans had our 5th overall draft pick. As we saw the McVay years play out, it became clear that Cooper Kupp is better than Corey Davis, and JJ is close to Jamal Adams' level IMO. Those two were drafted 5 and 6 while our two were drafted in the same draft, in the third round.

That made me realize two things:

First, how much does the situation play into players having success? I decided that I think it matters a TON.

Second, we as fans have always loved the draft. There's a thing about rookies - a shine that everyone loves. The year after we drafted SJD and redshirted him, fans mocked replacing him, constantly. I pointed out that the coaches likely kept him for a reason, but everyone wanted him replaced - most likely because they never saw him, and as such, he must not be good.

The truth is, it's almost a 50/50 gamble with TONS of resources that we as fans don't have access to. And not all first round picks are created equally - but even in the top 10, guys are drafted that don't live up to their billing. Whether that's the player, team or both (likely), it's a big unknown. We had some posters back in the day that were advocating for drafting GRob 2nd overall. But you know what? The other guy who we all wanted was Sammy Watkins, and he's been a big disappointment for a top 5 pick.

I guess the answer to this would be the number of first round picks that we can reasonably expect to be a contender - that's how many I'm comfortable trading. Two feels right for this trade.

 

[NJRamsFan]

Sometimes I go back and re-read the first 10 pages or so. Hilarious stuff.

You go back and re read 10 pages of a thread multiple times...yikes

 

[iamme33]

I guess the answer to this would be the number of first round picks that we can reasonably expect to be a contender - that's how many I'm comfortable trading. Two feels right for this trade.

not sure if you think 2 feels about right is 2 1st and a 3rd to much

The truth is, it's almost a 50/50 gamble with TONS of resources that we as fans don't have access to. And not all first round picks are created equally - but even in the top 10, guys are drafted that don't live up to their billing. Whether that's the player, team or both (likely), it's a big unknown.

yes it is true that there are a lot of misses in the draft but there are also misses in trades for instance cooks and than peters. i know that we didn't give a 1st rounder for peters but we did give 2nd and 5th than because he didn't work out we gave 2 1sts for ramsey. so in a round about way that missed pick did cost us plenty. i can tell that i am in the minority on this so all i can do is hope it all works out and i get to hear a lot of i told you so.

 

[Angry Ram]

You go back and re read 10 pages of a thread multiple times...yikes

Yeah, when I need a good laugh. What's it to you?

 

[FrantikRam]

not sure if you think 2 feels about right is 2 1st and a 3rd to much




yes it is true that there are a lot of misses in the draft but there are also misses in trades for instance cooks and than peters. i know that we didn't give a 1st rounder for peters but we did give 2nd and 5th than because he didn't work out we gave 2 1sts for ramsey. so in a round about way that missed pick did cost us plenty. i can tell that i am in the minority on this so all i can do is hope it all works out and i get to hear a lot of i told you so.

I'm fine with two first and a third. I was just talking about number of first round picks.

I think if we were to trade with Carolina for their first rounder this year, it likely requires more than our two firsts (if we had one this year) and a third. They were in on the Stafford sweepstakes too and supposedly offered their first this year.

We got our offer over theirs by virtue of Goff, but without Goff, that two firsts and a third doesn't match their high first this year. If you're the Lions and you're trying to maximize value, you have to assume the picks the Rams are trading for future years are in the 28-32 range (worst case scenario for Detroit). So getting the 8th pick this year from Carolina versus a 3rd this year, 28th next year and let's just say 30th the year after? Carolina's 8th this year is the much better deal.

Throwing in Goff probably swings that, but the issue here is that Detroit is obviously more interested in picks than players right now. For the Rams, we couldn't keep both Goff and Stafford.

As for the previous misses in trades, I'm not sure you can say the Peters trade was a miss - it got us to the Super Bowl where Peters was instrumental in limiting/shutting down both Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Peters barely allowed a catch in those playoffs. It was just one year, but he played well enough for us to win the Super Bowl.

Cooks is a little different, especially since he had a TD in the Super Bowl that would have changed the game - but having him still allowed us to field the best offense we've had since the GSOT days. In fact, we scored more points in 2018 than we did in 1999 and 2001.

 

[Tano]

I'm fine with two first and a third. I was just talking about number of first round picks.

I think if we were to trade with Carolina for their first rounder this year, it likely requires more than our two firsts (if we had one this year) and a third. They were in on the Stafford sweepstakes too and supposedly offered their first this year.

We got our offer over theirs by virtue of Goff, but without Goff, that two firsts and a third doesn't match their high first this year. If you're the Lions and you're trying to maximize value, you have to assume the picks the Rams are trading for future years are in the 28-32 range (worst case scenario for Detroit). So getting the 8th pick this year from Carolina versus a 3rd this year, 28th next year and let's just say 30th the year after? Carolina's 8th this year is the much better deal.

Throwing in Goff probably swings that, but the issue here is that Detroit is obviously more interested in picks than players right now. For the Rams, we couldn't keep both Goff and Stafford.

As for the previous misses in trades, I'm not sure you can say the Peters trade was a miss - it got us to the Super Bowl where Peters was instrumental in limiting/shutting down both Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Peters barely allowed a catch in those playoffs. It was just one year, but he played well enough for us to win the Super Bowl.

Cooks is a little different, especially since he had a TD in the Super Bowl that would have changed the game - but having him still allowed us to field the best offense we've had since the GSOT days. In fact, we scored more points in 2018 than we did in 1999 and 2001.

That's the thing that I have been arguing.

I believe Goff is worth a top 10 first round pick but that is my opinion and that is why I was against the trade. You can say all you want about me overvaluing Goff but that is my own person opinion and I am sticking with it.

You can argue Goff's salary but I have already stated the lions are only taking on 25M a year - a decent price for a QB like GOff.

You know where I stand on this and I know where you stand on this.

And I doubt we are going to change each other's minds on this.

But I will say that since the trade is made - I will be all in on Stafford since he is a Ram now. I just have to live with losing 2 firsts in the next two years along with a top ten pick this year (Goff).

And bring on the difference of opinions - I don't care. It's my opinion.

 

[iamme33]

As for the previous misses in trades, I'm not sure you can say the Peters trade was a miss - it got us to the Super Bowl where Peters was instrumental in limiting/shutting down both Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Peters barely allowed a catch in those playoffs. It was just one year, but he played well enough for us to win the Super Bowl.

it is funny that peters was so good that he shut down brees and brady and got us to the supper bowl. yet. the next year the coaching staff gets rid of him because he dose not fit our system. cooks was good but injuries made him tradable. i guess my point is that 1 player dose not get a team to the big bowl. in fact i could make the argument that if we had the picks we gave for those players we would have won the super bowl. the thing is i would probably be wrong because i would be just guessing as to how those picks would have turned out just as you are guessing that they are the ones that got us to the supper bowl. anyway i think we should just agree to disagree and move on after all i have said that i am prepared for a lot of i told you so. in fact i hope i get them on the stafford trade

 

[jrry32]

I'm fine with two first and a third. I was just talking about number of first round picks.

I think if we were to trade with Carolina for their first rounder this year, it likely requires more than our two firsts (if we had one this year) and a third. They were in on the Stafford sweepstakes too and supposedly offered their first this year.

We got our offer over theirs by virtue of Goff, but without Goff, that two firsts and a third doesn't match their high first this year. If you're the Lions and you're trying to maximize value, you have to assume the picks the Rams are trading for future years are in the 28-32 range (worst case scenario for Detroit). So getting the 8th pick this year from Carolina versus a 3rd this year, 28th next year and let's just say 30th the year after? Carolina's 8th this year is the much better deal.

Throwing in Goff probably swings that, but the issue here is that Detroit is obviously more interested in picks than players right now. For the Rams, we couldn't keep both Goff and Stafford.

As for the previous misses in trades, I'm not sure you can say the Peters trade was a miss - it got us to the Super Bowl where Peters was instrumental in limiting/shutting down both Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Peters barely allowed a catch in those playoffs. It was just one year, but he played well enough for us to win the Super Bowl.

Cooks is a little different, especially since he had a TD in the Super Bowl that would have changed the game - but having him still allowed us to field the best offense we've had since the GSOT days. In fact, we scored more points in 2018 than we did in 1999 and 2001.

FWIW, the reported offer from Carolina was the #8 pick, a 4th or 5th, and QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Lions valued Goff somewhere in the late first to second round range. I think that's about what we could have gotten if we traded him outside of the deal.

it is funny that peters was so good that he shut down brees and brady and got us to the supper bowl. yet. the next year the coaching staff gets rid of him because he dose not fit our system.

The problem with Peters was that he didn't want to play within the system. We were going to have to make a decision on extending him, and it was going to be tough to pay a guy a lot of money who was freelancing and not tackling.

 

[MachS]

I'm fine with two first and a third. I was just talking about number of first round picks.

I think if we were to trade with Carolina for their first rounder this year, it likely requires more than our two firsts (if we had one this year) and a third. They were in on the Stafford sweepstakes too and supposedly offered their first this year.

We got our offer over theirs by virtue of Goff, but without Goff, that two firsts and a third doesn't match their high first this year. If you're the Lions and you're trying to maximize value, you have to assume the picks the Rams are trading for future years are in the 28-32 range (worst case scenario for Detroit). So getting the 8th pick this year from Carolina versus a 3rd this year, 28th next year and let's just say 30th the year after? Carolina's 8th this year is the much better deal.

Throwing in Goff probably swings that, but the issue here is that Detroit is obviously more interested in picks than players right now. For the Rams, we couldn't keep both Goff and Stafford.

As for the previous misses in trades, I'm not sure you can say the Peters trade was a miss - it got us to the Super Bowl where Peters was instrumental in limiting/shutting down both Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Peters barely allowed a catch in those playoffs. It was just one year, but he played well enough for us to win the Super Bowl.

Cooks is a little different, especially since he had a TD in the Super Bowl that would have changed the game - but having him still allowed us to field the best offense we've had since the GSOT days. In fact, we scored more points in 2018 than we did in 1999 and 2001.

After the Carolina offer was made public, it without a doubt showed we didn't overpay. You mentioned just the picks and how their offer was better but Goff was what swung the deal. Don't forget Carolina offered Bridgewater as well with pick 8 + their 4th rounder. Goff is better than Bridgewater, but given his contract and how Carolina offered more trade value with pick 8 than both our 1st rounders combined... its pretty even value. One could even argue that Carolina offered more.

Also dont forget Stafford specifically said he wanted to come to LA. He insisted on that, and by all accounts the Lions wanted to do right by him. Who knows if he didnt say he wanted to be in LA, the Lions could have taken the Carolina offer.

 

[FrantikRam]

After the Carolina offer was made public, it without a doubt showed we didn't overpay. You mentioned just the picks and how their offer was better but Goff was what swung the deal. Don't forget Carolina offered Bridgewater as well with pick 8 + their 4th rounder. Goff is better than Bridgewater, but given his contract and how Carolina offered more trade value with pick 8 than both our 1st rounders combined... its pretty even value. One could even argue that Carolina offered more.

Also dont forget Stafford specifically said he wanted to come to LA. He insisted on that, and by all accounts the Lions wanted to do right by him. Who knows if he didnt say he wanted to be in LA, the Lions could have taken the Carolina offer.

Yep. We can quibble all day about the value of Goff, but from a draft pick comparison standpoint, our picks combined are significantly worse than the Panthers 8th pick.

Teams that move up 10 spots or so in the draft trade their first in the same draft and first the next year. For a (projected to be) really good team to offer their next two first rounders, that trade just gets a laugh from the Panthers GM.

I concur that Goff pushed us over the top and made us the strongest offer, but the Panthers weren't far behind IMO.

 

[FrantikRam]

it is funny that peters was so good that he shut down brees and brady and got us to the supper bowl. yet. the next year the coaching staff gets rid of him because he dose not fit our system. cooks was good but injuries made him tradable. i guess my point is that 1 player dose not get a team to the big bowl. in fact i could make the argument that if we had the picks we gave for those players we would have won the super bowl. the thing is i would probably be wrong because i would be just guessing as to how those picks would have turned out just as you are guessing that they are the ones that got us to the supper bowl. anyway i think we should just agree to disagree and move on after all i have said that i am prepared for a lot of i told you so. in fact i hope i get them on the stafford trade

It's all about how you view it. The picks for Peters likey turn into a good player - but our defense was really good in the playoffs and IIRC Peters barely allowed a catch in the postseason.

He undoubtedly was a big reason why our defense was so good.

It's REALLY hard to make a Super Bowl. So making it is a big achievement and I'm happy with all the players who played well and helped us get there

 

[NJRamsFan]

Yeah, when I need a good laugh. What's it to you?

What is what anyone else said to you? (See same thing)

 

[Merlin]

After the Carolina offer was made public, it without a doubt showed we didn't overpay. You mentioned just the picks and how their offer was better but Goff was what swung the deal. Don't forget Carolina offered Bridgewater as well with pick 8 + their 4th rounder. Goff is better than Bridgewater, but given his contract and how Carolina offered more trade value with pick 8 than both our 1st rounders combined... its pretty even value. One could even argue that Carolina offered more.

Yeah I would have taken Carolina's offer tbh. The higher pick right now appeals to me if I'm the GM. If you're lucky that pick comes with a shot at a QB, a BPA windfall, or you can move down and add draft assets. I think the Rams first round picks are shitty, they're gonna win a lot of games here in the next couple seasons. Brad's rationale on the choice is all about Goff. So I hope Goff plays well for him.

 

[jrry32]

Yeah I would have taken Carolina's offer tbh. The higher pick right now appeals to me if I'm the GM. If you're lucky that pick comes with a shot at a QB, a BPA windfall, or you can move down and add draft assets. I think the Rams first round picks are shitty, they're gonna win a lot of games here in the next couple seasons. Brad's rationale on the choice is all about Goff. So I hope Goff plays well for him.

I'd have taken the LA offer. The worst place to be is sitting in that spot and feeling that you're forced into taking a QB. They'll have the future draft compensation to make a move for a QB if Goff isn't the guy. But it's worth seeing if Goff can be the guy, considering what he has already shown. I guess the argument is that getting Teddy allows you the same flexibility, but I don't think you can really convince yourself that Teddy is anything more than a bridge QB.

Plus, I imagine a guy like Dan Campbell wouldn't mind having an experienced QB and a potential shot at putting together a competitive team this year. And with Matt Stafford's recent injury history, there are realistic scenarios where they get decent future picks from the Rams.

 

[Merlin]

I don't see that roster winning in 2021. In fact losing this year and getting a high pick and impact player is not the worst thing. Goff isn't going to make them 5 games better. So building should be their focus and once that build comes together ideally you have a drafted QB you can ride or if Goff has shown he's the guy they're good to go.

 

[OldSchool]

Yeah I would have taken Carolina's offer tbh. The higher pick right now appeals to me if I'm the GM. If you're lucky that pick comes with a shot at a QB, a BPA windfall, or you can move down and add draft assets. I think the Rams first round picks are shitty, they're gonna win a lot of games here in the next couple seasons. Brad's rationale on the choice is all about Goff. So I hope Goff plays well for him.

If pick 8 comes with a chance at a QB I'd imagine Detroit's #7 pick also has a chance at a QB btw.

 

[A.J. Hicks]

I absolutely hope nothing but the best for Goff. I was reading about Ragnow's love for Stafford the other day and couldn't help but think about how Goff is going to love having a center like Ragnow. It's going to take effort and resiliency to build the Lions into something and Goff has always been that dude.

 

[Merlin]

If pick 8 comes with a chance at a QB I'd imagine Detroit's #7 pick also has a chance at a QB btw.

Guess I shoulda looked.

 

[OldSchool]

Guess I shoulda looked.

But since they like Jared so much at #7 they can use that pick for a WR weapon or a playmaker at Edge if ones available. They took a good CB last year very early so time for another spot I'd imagine.

 

[jrry32]

I don't see that roster winning in 2021. In fact losing this year and getting a high pick and impact player is not the worst thing. Goff isn't going to make them 5 games better. So building should be their focus and once that build comes together ideally you have a drafted QB you can ride or if Goff has shown he's the guy they're good to go.

I don't think they're as bad as some think. If they make wise decisions this off-season, they can be competitive next year. It's less about Goff making them 5 games better and more about a new coaching staff making them better. They were the #32 ranked defense in 2020. If Aaron Glenn is the rising star the league thinks he is and the Lions make some smart additions, they could find themselves having a decent defense in 2021 (especially with Aubrey Pleasant developing the talent they have in the secondary).

In that scenario, Goff doesn't need to be Tom Brady. Anthony Lynn is one of the best in the NFL at scheming up running games imo. The Lions have a solid OL on paper. And D'Andre Swift showed well as a rookie (averaging 4.6 yards per carry and looking like a legitimate passing game weapon). If Goff can get back to playing efficient, smart football, that team is capable of being a thorn in the side of the NFCN. How many people thought McVay could win 11 games with the team Fisher left him? I'm not saying Matt Campbell is McVay, but I am saying that the Lions aren't the 2009 Rams. They have talent.