I said my goodbyes and am moving on.
It doesn't mean I think this trade will work out or it was a good idea. But I am going to be hoping I am wrong.
Either way I will be rooting for Stafford and the Rams with the same passion I did with Goff.
The QB position is such a hard one to judge. There are just so many variables to consider. You can't reasonably analyze it with pure stats and subjective opinions can vary at opposite ends of the spectrum.
One thing that is certain, if you don't have a top QB, you are going to have a very hard time being a consistent contender in the NFL.
This is my greatest concern. If you don't win a Super Bowl with Safford, you have mortgaged several years of top picks and will be on the hunt for a new QB. It could take a decade or more to find that top QB. With Goff, as Warner said "You are a little concerned that you are giving up such a young guy that has already won a ton of games, lead a top offense and won an NFC Championship at 24".
This has every indication of Snead/Mcvay looking out for their jobs rather than looking out for the long term future of the Rams organization. Bring in the quick fix old guy. Use future resources and future QB to accomplish the short term goal.
Either we have dumb and dumber running the show or a genius and a gambler who lands the royal flush on the river.
We will see.
I only wanna address the draft picks.
Snead, for better or worse, has a philosophy.
When they grade out the draft, what he considers 1st rounders depending on the year tends to only be 10-20 guys. That's it.
Then there's the next tier of guys which can be from 20-50 guys. Well that puts very little difference between pick 21 and pick 70 which is an early 3rd rounder. And due to the fact that after the 1st round and each round after, there's a greater propensity for teams to "fill holes" rather than draft the BPA, it means guys in that range are gonna fall.
That's part of why we've been successful with this so far.
Hitting on a 1st rounder is a 50% proposition. What I've not seen is what the hit rate is on the 21-32 picks. That's got to be lower.
In Snead's estimation, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Talent-wise that's very true, especially as teams overvalue "1sts" as if a low 1st is all that different than an early 2nd... and it isn't except for QBs for that 5th year option. But teams overvalue that low 1st and Snead's taking advantage of that.
Now I think unlike in most trades, Brad Holmes in Detroit will take solid advantage of those picks, but most teams do not.
Here's the catch. It does put greater emphasis from a cap management standpoint to draft well in the mid rounds which we have so far.
The bigger catch is that it can be hard to retain studs you've drafted (as we're seeing with JJ3 and Darious Williams).
It's a juggling act and it's about choices. Some teams swim in 1st rounders and miss constantly. Others like NE just stock up on volume picks and their overall hit percentage is surprisingly low, especially at positions they've needed badly like WR. In 20 years, they've not hit on a single pro bowl receiver. That's really something.
I dunno if this is the new trend or if it's just the Rams way of doing business or if it's even sustainable, but it's working thus far and until the Rams can't draft in the mid-rounds, it should continue to work well.