FA and Cap Outlook

[Riverumbbq]

Yeah I’m saying I’ve learned that I should be that way too. Prior to this year, I’d get stressed and mad about the wrong moves (in my mind) made. You did NOT want to be anywhere near me during the draft 2nd round last year when we selected TuTu. But alas, I’ve learned to enjoy the process and have fun with it.

 

[Gandalf]

We usually do very well drafting DBs and LBs in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

[fearsomefour]

Yeah I’m saying I’ve learned that I should be that way too. Prior to this year, I’d get stressed and mad about the wrong moves (in my mind) made. You did NOT want to be anywhere near me during the draft 2nd round last year when we selected TuTu. But alas, I’ve learned to enjoy the process and have fun with it. Because obviously I don’t know what I’m talking about apparently lol.

I have given up trying to figure out Snead.
His drafts often baffle me.
But, the results speak for themselves.
A toast to the Great Snead....

 

[Merlin]

Rams OL Andrew Whitworth 'leaning towards' retiring, waiting 'couple of weeks' to make final decision

Rams offensive lineman Andrew Whitworth continues to mull his future and though he's leaning toward retirement, he'll take "another couple of weeks" to make his decision.

www.nfl.com

Rams OL Andrew Whitworth 'leaning towards' retiring, waiting 'couple of weeks' to make final decision​

Published: Feb 23, 2022 at 06:33 PM

Nick Shook

Andrew Whitworth capped his 16th NFL season with his greatest triumph of his career: a Super Bowl title.
It may have been the last game for the oldest active player in the NFL. The 40-year-old lineman is mulling his future and plans to come to a decision in March.

"I'm kind of waiting for another couple of weeks. Just right before the league year starts, I'll make a decision," Whitworth said during an appearance on NFL Total Access on Wednesday. "Trying to get away from the game as much as I can."

In the lead-up to Super Bowl LVI, Whitworth spoke of how perfect a victory over the Cincinnati Bengals would be to finish his illustrious NFL career. Since that win, Whitworth has dodged questions regarding his future, declining to participate in postgame interviews and sidestepping the matter when asked during the Rams' victory parade, saying he'd "save that conversation for another day."

It appears that conversation has begun, but has not reached its conclusion.

Whitworth has many factors to consider, but also noted ahead of the Super Bowl he had impressed himself by being able to physically prepare to play against players much younger than him. With this in mind, it's fair to expect him to hang up his pads and cleats. It's no surprise he again echoed the impact of his storybook ending -- if this is how he goes out.

"There's a lot that goes into that," Whitworth said of making a decision on his future. "Obviously, the family's involved. Me making sure that my commitment level to being the kind of player that I expect myself to be each and every Sunday is a part of that. So, that's something I'm just gonna give it another couple of weeks and make sure I'm pretty confident what I want to do.

"I definitely think, I'm definitely leaning towards probably being done. I think that that's probably best for me at this time in my career. There's obviously days I'm waking up right now that I don't know if I want to do that. It's battling that a little bit. I'll come to a conclusion here soon to give the Rams a chance to make the moves they need to one way or another. But man, what an awesome ride it's been if this is the end."

One aspect making it difficult for Whitworth to call it a career is, of course, the prospect of winning two Super Bowls, something the greatest hockey player of all time talked to the offensive tackle about.

"I'll never forget after we won the game, 'The Great One' Wayne Gretzky called me, cause I live out here near him in Sherwood (California)," Whitworth said. "He was like, 'Hey Whit, there's only one thing better than winning one, and that's winning two.' And I said, 'You know what, I can't argue with you.' It's gonna be tough. One way or another it's gonna be a tough decision."

Playing such a physically taxing position at 40 years old at an effective level is impressive. It ultimately earned him a previously elusive ring. We'll learn in the coming weeks whether Super Bowl LVI truly was it for "Big Whit."

 

[Merlin]

Restructure or release? Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas among eight NFC players to keep an eye on

www.nfl.com

Restructure or release? Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas among eight NFC players to keep an eye on​

Published: Feb 23, 2022 at 02:22 PM

Cynthia Frelund

As we approach free agency (and the NFL draft), coaches and front office executives are hard at work on their team-building strategies for the 2022 season and beyond. With the salary cap estimated at $208.2 million per club for the coming campaign, some teams are sitting pretty (the Dolphins and Jaguars, for example, are flush with cash), while others have tough decisions to make (the Saints and Packers are deep in the red).

This is restructure/release season. Some franchises simply need to straighten out their books, while others will aim to free up cash to target specific players in free agency or on the trade block. On that latter front, this offseason looks like it could be particularly interesting because of all the potential movement among quarterbacks, the priciest commodities in the sport.

These are fun times for me. I love setting projected performance to salary metrics. Contracts are typically based on past performance, which is, after all, the best data on individual players that we have available. But adding in the filter of possible substitutes in the open market, along with how else the money could be realistically spent in order to earn wins ... That's my kind of party! This is where the analytics really come into play. For example, a classic debate: Do you pay big money for the top-end running back ... or sign a closer-to-average RB and use the remaining dough to upgrade the offensive line? Oftentimes, people argue such matters inside a vacuum, only considering one end of the discussion (the top-end running back) without seriously exploring the available options behind Door No. 2.

I'm endlessly fascinated by this stuff and could go on about the hypotheticals forever. But in the interest of providing an article -- and not a textbook -- I'm looking to focus my lens on a more distilled group of players today. Merging 2022 contract information with my models estimating individual win-share totals for the coming season (using computer vision, advanced data, conventional statistics, Next Gen Stats, etc.), I'm spotlighting players who are so misaligned with their contracts that they could be due for a restructure or release.

NOTE: All financial figures below were pulled from Over The Cap at publishing, with the players presented in alphabetical order.


Landon Collins
Safety · Age 28

Washington Commodes
2021 record: 7-10

Collins' 2022 cap number: $16,918,750
Collins' dead cap number: $9,600,000
Commodes' estimated cap space: $31,899,739

Pro Football Focus attributed Collins with a 110.6 passer rating allowed in coverage in 2021, which ranked 36th out of 48 safeties who were targeted at least 30 times. With the second-highest cap hit among NFL safeties, Collins' deal is hard to reconcile with his performance, especially given the talent of Washington's defensive front, as well as the other needs for this team.


Ezekiel Elliott
Running back · Age 26

Dallas Cowboys
2021 record: 12-5

Elliott's 2022 cap number: $18,220,000
Elliott's dead cap number: $30,080,000
Cowboys' estimated cap space: -$22,154,885

Dallas currently projects to have the third-worst cap situation in the NFL, forcing some interesting choices to be made. Elliott carries the highest 2022 cap hit among NFL running backs -- it's 8.6 percent of the Cowboys' entire salary cap. Zeke posted a negative-25 rushing yards over expected in 2021, per Next Gen Stats, ranking 33rd of the 49 running backs who logged at least 100 carries. Now, that dead cap figure makes an outright release inconceivable. But a restructure could make plenty of sense, especially considering Dallas has a younger back who could use more burn in Tony Pollard.

Trey Flowers
Outside linebacker · Age 28

Detroit Lions
2021 record: 3-13-1

Flowers' 2022 cap number: $23,239,000
Flowers' dead cap number: $12,853,000
Lions' estimated cap space: $21,203,118

It's hard to justify allotting 11 percent of the Lions' salary cap to a player who, according to Next Gen Stats, has only played 27 percent of possible snaps over the past two seasons (582 of 2,159). Not to mention, computer vision counts just 18 total pressures for Flowers in that time frame; for context, eight players eclipsed 18 pressures over four-game spans this past season. Given the number of needs that exist on Detroit's rebuilding roster, the Lions need to take action here, one way or another.

Eddie Goldman
Nose tackle · Age 28

Chicago Bears
2021 record: 6-11

Goldman's 2022 cap number: $11,810,407
Goldman's dead cap number: $5,150,000
Bears' estimated cap space: $25,329,726

With a completely new regime in Chicago, you know the entire roster is under review. Goldman recorded just a 3.9 percent pressure rate in 2021, his lowest figure since NGS started tracking that in 2016. That's a big cap number for a big man who could be on the decline.

Tyler Higbee
Tight end · Age 29

Los Angeles Rams
2021 record: 12-5

Higbee's 2022 cap number: $8,050,000
Higbee's dead cap number: $2,850,000
Rams' estimated cap space: -$21,623,914

My models love later-round tight ends in this draft class. Not to say any of them should be expected to immediately replicate Higbee's production, but again, we're not just thinking of the one-for-one tradeoff here. This is about the big picture, how everything affects the broader roster and spending. Higbee carries the eighth-highest cap hit at the tight end position, while the Rams currently have the fourth-worst cap situation, at more than $21 million in the red. According to Next Gen Stats, Higbee just posted a career-low 5.3 air yards per target in 2021, down from 7.5 in 2016-2020.


Can't-Miss Play: High-point Higbee! Rams TE looks like Megatron snagging TD No. 2



Eric Kendricks
Linebacker · Age 29

Minnesota Vikings
2021 record: 8-9

Kendricks' 2022 cap number: $13,530,000
Kendricks' dead cap number: $5,960,000
Vikings' estimated cap space: -$16,040,779

Minnesota has several potential subjects for this piece, but Kendricks edges out the others based on how the regime change might impact the defense's operations. Next Gen Stats and I both agree he's a valuable piece. In fact, he is one of just four players (along with Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David and Demario Davis) who eclipses 40 QB pressures and 350 defensive stops in the NGS era, going back to 2016. But his cap hit is robust, ranking eighth among all off-ball linebackers, and the new guys might look to reallocate some of those funds.

Za'Darius Smith
Outside linebacker · Age 29

Green Bay Packers
2021 record: 13-4

Smith's 2022 cap number: $27,661,250
Smith's dead cap number: $12,380,000
Packers' estimated cap space: -$42,718,970

Are you seated? This one is hefty. At present, Smith accounts for a whopping 13.2 percent of Green Bay's 2022 salary cap. And the Packers could very well be looking to rain cash upon Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. Going back to 2019, Smith's 2.7 percent sack rate ranks ninth in the NFL, per NGS. But a back injury just sidelined him for 16 regular-season games last year -- and he turns 30 in September.

Michael Thomas
Wide receiver · Age 28

New Orleans Saints
2021 record: 9-8

Thomas' 2022 cap number: $24,700,000
Thomas' dead cap number: $22,700,000
Saints' estimated cap space: -$76,176,740

At the moment, the Saints have the worst cap situation in the NFL by a wide margin, currently $76 million in the hole. Thomas, whose cap number accounts for nearly 12 percent of New Orleans' total figure, has played in just seven total games since his record-setting 2019 campaign. Consequently, my models see a lot of risk on the receiver when it comes to return on investment. The $22.7 million dead cap figure makes cutting him nonsensical, though a restructure might be in order. Mickey Loomis could also look to trade him after June 1, though, and significantly lower the dead money hit in 2022. Even with all the missed time of late, Thomas still leads the NFL with 327 receptions (and an 84.9 percent catch rate) on short passes since 2016, per NGS.

Follow Cynthia Frelund on Twitter.

 

[OnceARam]

I saw a graphic on the Pat Mc show that said that the expected FA value of Von Miller was 2 yrs at ~$35 million. If that's true we're in trouble. I don't think we can afford to be paying 2 OLB at once.

???

 

[BonifayRam]

9 Rams among PFF’s top 200 pending free agents

Cameron DaSilva Thu, February 24, 2022,

9 Rams among PFF’s top 200 pending free agents

The Rams have 9 of the 200 best free agents this year, according to Pro Football Focus, including two in the top 20.

sports.yahoo.com

​

If the Rams are going to keep their Super Bowl team together for the 2022 season, they’ll have plenty of work to do. With limited cap space and a boatload of key free agents set to hit the market, there are plenty of hurdles on their path to repeating with the same group next season.

Pro Football Focus put the Rams’ free-agent class into perspective with its ranking of the top 200 players set to hit the market. Of those 200, nine of them were members of the Rams, including two in the top 20 and four in the top 55.

Von Miller was the highest-ranked among the Rams’ free agents, coming in at No. 4. Odell Beckham Jr. was 19th, followed by Darious Williams at No. 36 and Austin Corbett at No. 53. Williams’ ranking feels a bit high after the up-and-down season he had, but his performance in 2020 was fantastic.

Elsewhere on the list, Brian Allen is PFF’s 67th-best free agent, and Sony Michel is 80th – also the fourth-best running back who will be available next month. Sebastian Joseph-Day, who missed most of the season, was ranked 85th.

Backups Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Joseph Noteboom were ranked 153rd and 162nd, respectively, with PFF seeing Okoronkwo as a rotational edge rusher and Noteboom as a potential starting left tackle.

Unsurprisingly, Davante Adams was PFF’s top-ranked free agent, followed by Terron Armstead at No. 2 and Chris Godwin at No. 3. It seems unlikely that any of those three will actually become free agents, either because their teams will sign them to extensions or hit them with the franchise tag.

 

[AppeasFBlGods]

It will be interesting to see what we do going forward. Do we pay someone like Noteboom or try to get someone a little more solidified at LT like Eric Fisher or Duane Brown? I think Darius Williams is gone. Obj is interesting because he won't be ready until towards the end of the year and you don't know how that knee will be going forward. Singing him to a multi-year thing is dicey.. but either way we need better depth. Maybe we say call us when you are healthy and bring in someone like zay Jones for insurance? It's a tough call. You want to reward OBJ for being such a good addition and teammate but you just can't count on him for next year and our resources are limited.

 

[Riverumbbq]

It will be interesting to see what we do going forward. Do we pay someone like Noteboom or try to get someone a little more solidified at LT like Eric Fisher or Duane Brown? I think Darius Williams is gone. Obj is interesting because he won't be ready until towards the end of the year and you don't know how that knee will be going forward. Singing him to a multi-year thing is dicey.. but either way we need better depth. Maybe we say call us when you are healthy and bring in someone like zay Jones for insurance? It's a tough call. You want to reward OBJ for being such a good addition and teammate but you just can't count on him for next year and our resources are limited.

I'm thinking a low cost one year incentive filled contract protects both player & team for 2022, although if OBj is willing to sign a team friendly backloaded multi-year contract, then why not ? Zay Jones could still be some nice insurance competing with Jefferson & our rookies. jmo.

 

[Merlin]

I saw a graphic on the Pat Mc show that said that the expected FA value of Von Miller was 2 yrs at ~$35 million. If that's true we're in trouble. I don't think we can afford to be paying 2 OLB at once.

???

I would think restructuring Floyd and adding Miller should be doable. Thing is they're gonna need to let most of these FAs walk. That's the model for adding key guys is you keep the top performers and fill around them with next man up.

Most of the Rams FA list are just guys. Only difference makers are Von and Odell in that group. Maybe Boom too but sample size and him getting hurt in minimal snaps concern me.

 

[ottoman89]

A guy I want the Rams to look at is Denver ILB (and Hawkeye) Josey Jewell. Have a connection with the new LB coach here.

 

[Kupped]

I saw a graphic on the Pat Mc show that said that the expected FA value of Von Miller was 2 yrs at ~$35 million. If that's true we're in trouble. I don't think we can afford to be paying 2 OLB at once.

???

I think they absolutely can. There's so much they can do to play with contracts... and keeping Von.. and keeping him fresh for the playoffs.. is critical, imo.

 

[El Chapo Jr]

The Rams can open up something like $60 million really simply... it doesn't mean they will, but why wouldn't they? We'll see.

One thing I'm trying to remember is that the Rams regularly pull off "holy shit!" moves.. so.. why not Terron Armstead?? He'll cost a ton.. but you could probably play with the structure on a multi-year deal.

I'd be stoked if they found a way to get JC Jackson......yeah I know, but let me dream my Madden dreams lol

 

[Kupped]

I would think restructuring Floyd and adding Miller should be doable. Thing is they're gonna need to let most of these FAs walk. That's the model for adding key guys is you keep the top performers and fill around them with next man up.

Most of the Rams FA list are just guys. Only difference makers are Von and Odell in that group. Maybe Boom too but sample size and him getting hurt in minimal snaps concern me.

We're on the same page. I think Boom gets a modest one-year deal to try and prove he's a legit starting LT. He may have to take that gamble as opposed to a multi-year at a lower price.

I tend to think the Rams are in much, much better shape with regards to the cap than others. If they want.. it's pretty easy to keep Miller, Boom and Allen.

I'm also looking forward to seeing which previous draft picks show up next season.. Does Rochell take a BIG jump? Is Nick Scott really a legitimate starting deep safety now? Will Bobby Brown mirror SJD's development? Can Jake Funk contribute at RB? Can Evans actually play and win a starting job at guard? Is Alaric Jackson a player (I've rewatched the Vikings game and see the potential but also saw a lot of rough reps against backup pass rushers). Does Hopkins become a regular in two TE sets? Can David Long Jr. go from functional to solid? Can Burgess play? Will Lewis be a factor?

Lots of questions and we always get some fun, surprising answers from this Rams team and organization.

 

[Kupped]

I'd be stoked if they found a way to get JC Jackson......yeah I know, but let me dream my Madden dreams lol

If the Rams are going to make a move in FA.. It would be for a prime player at a prime position... so he would fit the bill. Or Terron Armstead.
Those are positions the Rams truly value.. and I don't know if they try to "find solutions" for those or if they just solve them in FA.

 

[El Chapo Jr]

If the Rams are going to make a move in FA.. It would be for a prime player at a prime position... so he would fit the bill. Or Terron Armstead.
Those are positions the Rams truly value.. and I don't know if they try to "find solutions" for those or if they just solve them in FA.

I agree they'd try to get a prime player but the problem with JC Jackson is that he wants Jalen Ramsey money.....not sure if that would work with our current CAP and have to assume it'd be difficult as hell to fit him in without short changing other areas. Maybe if we strike out on Von Miller would I see that becoming a remote possibility. Regardless, I'm excited to see what McSnead has up their sleeves.

 

[Merlin]

I tend to think the Rams are in much, much better shape with regards to the cap than others. If they want.. it's pretty easy to keep Miller, Boom and Allen.

Yeah I have no doubt they can keep everyone and run it back. I just don't think most of these guys are worth keeping at FA rates.

You see it every year, teams casting off previous FAs they overpaid for. And what they usually have in common is being average starters who get paid too much. So hopefully the Rams continue to be smarter than other teams and stick to their evaluation of what they want to pay them. That will ensure they get through this in good shape IMO. With this model the one thing you cannot do is overpay a mediocre or even average starter. Guys who get paid have to produce.

 

[Kupped]

I agree they'd try to get a prime player but the problem with JC Jackson is that he wants Jalen Ramsey money.....not sure if that would work with our current CAP and have to assume it'd be difficult as hell to fit him in without short changing other areas. Maybe if we strike out on Von Miller would I see that becoming a remote possibility. Regardless, I'm excited to see what McSnead has up their sleeves.

Yeah.. that would be a BIG swing and doesn't seem likely.

But just looking forward to surprises.

 

[Kupped]

Yeah I have no doubt they can keep everyone and run it back. I just don't think most of these guys are worth keeping at FA rates.

You see it every year, teams casting off previous FAs they overpaid for. And what they usually have in common is being average starters who get paid too much. So hopefully the Rams continue to be smarter than other teams and stick to their evaluation of what they want to pay them. That will ensure they get through this in good shape IMO. With this model the one thing you cannot do is overpay a mediocre or even average starter. Guys who get paid have to produce.

Yep.. They know they can get to competent in a lot of different areas through multiple paths that don't include overpaying.
We know they're disciplined and don't care what the outside perception is about whatever moves they make.

 

[El Chapo Jr]

Yeah.. that would be a BIG swing and doesn't seem likely.

But just looking forward to surprises.

Agree there that it'd be a ballsy ass move for sure. Part of the equation making it hard to figure out is we really don't know who will make it to FA, which positions may be more saturated, and what positions are deep in the draft. Regardless, we after definitely defending our crown.