Covid 19 thread

[Merlin]

This is what it may come down to unfortunately as a last resort. Like some folks sick with chicken pox and just exposing everybody in a controlled setting so they may eventually develop antibodies and an immunity. Not saying it will, but if we're unable to stop infection it's a potential reality.

Hope it doesn't come down to it though. I have loved ones who are high risk.

If I were a Governor my plan would be to have folks who are below the age of 30 go back to work. Folks below the age of 40 too, although with more restrictions. All the 50 and over crowd, be more careful with them.

Then constantly be ready to adjust it.

But either way we're going to need to build a base of immunity on this and we can't afford to stretch out the exposure over a matter of years. This is why whenever I see big groups of young kids like the spring break types I think it's a good thing. Building that immunity base in the healthiest portion of the population would be a good common sense approach to me at least.

 

[Ramhusker]

Open them and keep any and all high risk faculty/staff at home where they can manage the chunk of parents/kids who will inevitably refuse to "go back to school" and instead opt for distance learning.

Supply masks.

Kids need to get back to school ASAP. Autonomy.

IMO

Agreed and supplying masks is a must. You can't make kids wear them properly but you can give a good effort. That's all that is needed anyway. We won't stop this virus, just slow it down. We'll probably see some kind of staggered schedule for schools, especially for the busing effort. It'll be a nightmare for parents but you have to get back going. I'd imagine the "year round school" crowd might pounce at the opportunity. If you have half your students going to school on Mon and Wed and the other half going on Tues and Thurs, the school year would just about have to be year round for next year. Certain sports probably will be cancelled or greatly modified. I guess you could play sports with masks on if you have a great enough supply. I'm sure some enterprising entrepreneur will come up with a sports mask that will work. HEY! Let's get on that!

 

[1maGoh]

They're giving parents an option where I'm at: 100% learn from home or 100% learn from school. If the school option is chosen kids will wear masks, not sit near each other in class, not use water fountains, not sit near each other at lunch, and not get any recess. I'm not necessarily saying I disagree with those options, but I am saying that's the shittiest version of school that school could be. And this is a Pre-K through 5 school.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Opening schools now would be the end of public schools

I know the major issue right now is daycare and that’s keeping people from going about their business but if you restart schools now it’s gonna be the death knell

Just imaging — and it will happen — imagine when a kid knowingly has Covid 19 but goes to school anyway because their parents depend on school for their daycare, free lunch, etc, spreads to classmates — it’s gonna be front page news. And then they will be forced to shut down, etc... it’s best to wait until states have a cohesive plan to deal with all the fucked up scenarios

I mean I tried joking about this concept of bringing kids back and having “high risk” people stay home and have some secondary schooling — but I think we need to seriously determine what constitutes “high risk” - i mean, who is the arbitrator? Who makes the call on whether or not someone is high risk? The secretary? The water polo coach? A doctor? Who’s gonna pay for the doctor?

Anyway - you open schools now and you sentence them to failure

Who knows, maybe the powers that be want it all to come crashing down.

* Both my parents were in public education. My dad became a superintendent of a school district in Pico Rivera for 30 years. My mom taught ESL for 30+ years in Buena Park. I’ve heard it all at the dinner table.
It was mostly about issues with lack of funding.

And I don’t think conditions have improved since they retires ages ago.
It seems to me that we are going to start seeing the end of public education here really soon. If you look to what’s happening in the US Postal service you’ll see some parallels to how the Feds are choking these institutions for the sake of privatization.

The two institutions that need a complete overhaul is the archaic Heath Care system and Education. This pandemic is going to take both over the edge. Smart minds will realize there is opportunity and totally rethink how we teach our kids.

The child care aspect is major, parents are finding it hard to have their kids at home, to pay for babysitters etc when they have two jobs and don’t work from home. Some parents just hate their kids so they want them gone. There are single parents, etc — i think all that needs to be taken into account. Not every parent can or wants to homeschool. I get that.

In that case in the future expect to have to go private.

For the future of public education I think you need to look at self checkout aisles at Lowe’s or Home Depot, like at the Kroger, where there are 6 self checkout stations with someone managing the equipment. Like when you scan an item wrong or need to show your ID cause you’re buying beer. A kid will be in class doing his online lesson with his virtual teacher and when he gets hung up scanning something or getting to the next page, or when he needs to get signed off to go to the next lesson the “teacher” will go up and help him just like self-checkout.

Think of a room full of kids at threir desk with a ipad device working at their own pace through personalized curriculums that run uniform across the entire state. That’s the best case scenario.

Hope this doesn’t come across as grim, but parents are gonna have to face some tough choices when it comes to their kids and their education. I swear by homeschooling but I understand the flip side of things. What’s gonna happen is our countries population will start to shrink as our kids - due to their own experiences during this pandemic and moving forward with what will truly be disastrous results, and they are gonna think of having kids as a huge financial burden that isn’t worth having. Anyway...

I think if you open now without a serious cohesive and uniform plan of action it’s gonna be tough sledding for all

 

[oldnotdead]

I think what is being ignored is that the Govt is pulling down the restrictions on certifying a vaccine. One I've been watching is one that is in the middle of phase two testing in the UK. It's synthetic making it far easier and cheaper to mass-produce once approved. The testing to date has been very positive. IMO with all the focus upon creating a vaccine, I think that this time next year there will be a viable vaccine available. That is the only way to permanently control this disease.

I don't get this rush to reopen. Look at all the countries in the world that took precautions early and have totally flattened their curve. Because Americans refuse to take it seriously the pandemic in the US is now over 3 MILLION infections. Had these states not opened prematurely this would not be happening. So what if we wait a year. People don't have faith in how this economy works. As a guy who started his own business with an old 3 hand pickup and $100 in the bank and built it into a moderate 6 figure income and ran it for 33 years I think I know what it takes to start from nothing. I'm just one in hundreds of thousands who have and can be similar success stories.

But you can be a success if your dead. Dead people make lousy business owners and customers. Starting from scratch is nothing new in this country. My father was picking strawberries in Torrance at 13 years old. He served in the army during WWII and started his own trucking company which he ran for 50 years, Hell my entire family were truckers my dad trained and employed. Do you think that still doesn't happen today? Hell, my son is making over $50K with his online business. What I'm saying is that the how has changed but the desire to control your own financial destiny has never changed.

Yeah for all the major corporations that are going belly up that simply opens the door for thousands of small businesses. This is America and the dream lives on. So right now it's about survival and IMO a year or very probably less than that is not too long to wait for a real solution in the form of a vaccine. We have seen what a disaster premature opening has been here in the US. Why exacerbate the problem? One thing I learned in Nam, is that there is a time for action but there is even more time for simply hunkering down and let the opportunities come to you so when you do take action it's the right move. IMO re-opening now is a bad move, one that has already been tried and simply made things worse.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

I think what is being ignored is that the Govt is pulling down the restrictions on certifying a vaccine. One I've been watching is one that is in the middle of phase two testing in the UK. It's synthetic making it far easier and cheaper to mass-produce once approved. The testing to date has been very positive. IMO with all the focus upon creating a vaccine, I think that this time next year there will be a viable vaccine available. That is the only way to permanently control this disease.

I don't get this rush to reopen. Look at all the countries in the world that took precautions early and have totally flattened their curve. Because Americans refuse to take it seriously the pandemic in the US is now over 3 MILLION infections. Had these states not opened prematurely this would not be happening. So what if we wait a year. People don't have faith in how this economy works. As a guy who started his own business with an old 3 hand pickup and $100 in the bank and built it into a moderate 6 figure income and ran it for 33 years I think I know what it takes to start from nothing. I'm just one in hundreds of thousands who have and can be similar success stories.

But you can be a success if your dead. Dead people make lousy business owners and customers. Starting from scratch is nothing new in this country. My father was picking strawberries in Torrance at 13 years old. He served in the army during WWII and started his own trucking company which he ran for 50 years, Hell my entire family were truckers my dad trained and employed. Do you think that still doesn't happen today? Hell, my son is making over $50K with his online business. What I'm saying is that the how has changed but the desire to control your own financial destiny has never changed.

Yeah for all the major corporations that are going belly up that simply opens the door for thousands of small businesses. This is America and the dream lives on. So right now it's about survival and IMO a year or very probably less than that is not too long to wait for a real solution in the form of a vaccine. We have seen what a disaster premature opening has been here in the US. Why exacerbate the problem? One thing I learned in Nam, is that there is a time for action but there is even more time for simply hunkering down and let the opportunities come to you so when you do take action it's the right move. IMO re-opening now is a bad move, one that has already been tried and simply made things worse.

Nice post
As a business owner that has created something from nothing I totally agree. in fact, right now is the perfect time to start incubating those new ideas so by the end of 2021 you are rolling

 

[Merlin]

Why exacerbate the problem? One thing I learned in Nam, is that there is a time for action but there is even more time for simply hunkering down and let the opportunities come to you so when you do take action it's the right move. IMO re-opening now is a bad move, one that has already been tried and simply made things worse.

I think the sentiment that we can continue hiding from this thing with no regard for time is dangerous. The economy is practically a living thing so nobody knows how long it will go before it all comes crashing down.

There are crucial sectors as well where, once you go too far, coming back will not be a given.

If we end up sitting at home until the economy finally crashes there's going to be people facing starvation. And that will be where the cure is worse than the disease. I don't want to see a depression or maybe worse because of this. Prefer we face it with a controlled and monitored approach.

 

[fearsomefour]

what?

.

“The CDC recommends that healthy people do not wear masks or face coverings....”

 

[Dieter the Brock]

I think the sentiment that we can continue hiding from this thing with no regard for time is dangerous. The economy is practically a living thing so nobody knows how long it will go before it all comes crashing down.

There are crucial sectors as well where, once you go too far, coming back will not be a given.

If we end up sitting at home until the economy finally crashes there's going to be people facing starvation. And that will be where the cure is worse than the disease. I don't want to see a depression or maybe worse because of this. Prefer we face it with a controlled and monitored approach.

Believe it or not people are making money right now.
Many people are thriving.

Which sectors are you talking about that if you go too far coming back will not be a given?
Restaurants? The Airline industry? clothing retail?

 

[Mackeyser]

Last I looked there are many pharma companies battling it out for an effective vaccine. Let’s wait to see what we get before going all doomsday scenario.

As soon as there is a vaccine - anyone who wants one will be able to get one

That’s patently false. They will be sold first to those with insurance. You’ll notice that they didn’t give the retail price prior to the negotiated price. They will NOT be giving any away even if it means several returns of the virus or God forbid, a more dangerous mutation.

There is literally NO medicine in America that is free to anyone who wants it. And with the aftermath of the mass evictions coming, the definition of “affordable” or “accessible” is gonna be redefined.

 

[Mackeyser]

Well it’s not exactly “raw”
It’s loaded
I mean there is some prognostication, but then it veers into speculation about the inability to achieve herd immunity due to so-called Anti-Vaxxers.
So this article is anything but raw.
I could see if the article was all about the percentage of people that need to reach herd immunity or the effectiveness of a vaccine but it’s not entirely. So again it seems like it is bringing in notions of doom and blames those who are against vaccines for our inability to achieve herd immunity when we don’t even have a vaccine yet.
Anyway....
Doesn’t read raw to me

The point is that herd immunity very well might not be a thing with this virus whether the anti-vax community can be brought along or not.

That still leaves anyone purposefully exposing themselves as someone who’s playing Russian roulette. We don’t know fully the after effects of surviving the virus, but the initial data is quite troubling with indications of permanent long term damage. As well, perfectly healthy young people have died from this. I’ve lived losing the low odds medical short straw. No one should even want to draw straws.

Moreover, they’re noticing a very worrying trend in the data with how kids respond after COVID... with Kawasaki-esque syndrome like symptoms. The issue of microclots and full on blood clots is also an issue and post COVID means that some blockage heart attacks may be COVID related if not caused.

I dunno, man. There is so much about the pathology of this virus that we don’t know and if we get it wrong and this virus mutates worse...which it’s already done once... oof. All of this has struck me as penny foolish, pound fucking stupid.

 

[12intheBox]

It looks like the fed govt is going to try to force schools to just open up. There is talk of withholding federal funding for schools who refuse.

Go ahead and take us to Defcon 2.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

That’s patently false. They will be sold first to those with insurance. You’ll notice that they didn’t give the retail price prior to the negotiated price. They will NOT be giving any away even if it means several returns of the virus or God forbid, a more dangerous mutation.

There is literally NO medicine in America that is free to anyone who wants it. And with the aftermath of the mass evictions coming, the definition of “affordable” or “accessible” is gonna be redefined.

Again you are arguing something I never said

I didn’t say free, ever

But like you say, if you have insurance you’ll get one if you want one. And if you don’t have insurance you can buy it. When a vaccine(s) are available they will make 100’s of millions of doses.

but to think whomever creates the vaccine isn’t going to want as many people as possible inoculated is silly. So they aren’t gonna charge someone the cost of a Range Rover.

There is literally NOTHING (using all caps since that seems to be the thing here) there is literally nothing that is free in America to anyone who wants it. Not just medicine.

I mean “affordable” and “accessible” are terms you brought up

All I was commenting on was the article that with Fauci, herd immunity, and anti-vaxxers, which was promoting doomsday scenarios - sorta like what you are promoting in your response to me.

Viruses mutate. They exist. We all may die from it. We all may survive it — i wasn’t commenting on that at all

Only that there will be a vaccine soon, and every year after that a newer version to deal with mutations like with other coronavirus vaccines. If you want one you’ll be able to get one. Case closed

 

[Dieter the Brock]

The point is that herd immunity very well might not be a thing with this virus whether the anti-vax community can be brought along or not.

That still leaves anyone purposefully exposing themselves as someone who’s playing Russian roulette. We don’t know fully the after effects of surviving the virus, but the initial data is quite troubling with indications of permanent long term damage. As well, perfectly healthy young people have died from this. I’ve lived losing the low odds medical short straw. No one should even want to draw straws.

Moreover, they’re noticing a very worrying trend in the data with how kids respond after COVID... with Kawasaki-esque syndrome like symptoms. The issue of microclots and full on blood clots is also an issue and post COVID means that some blockage heart attacks may be COVID related if not caused.

I dunno, man. There is so much about the pathology of this virus that we don’t know and if we get it wrong and this virus mutates worse...which it’s already done once... oof. All of this has struck me as penny foolish, pound fucking stupid.

Again
Commenting on the article only
My point is all about the semantics.
That is all.
You can’t say the article is 100% raw scientific data if it’s speculating on someone’s speculation about the impact of those not wanting to be vaccinated when it comes to herd immunity, cause it’s not a scientific argument
That’s all
Whatever else you’re talking about has nothing to do with what I posted

 

[Dieter the Brock]

It looks like the fed govt is going to try to force schools to just open up. There is talk of withholding federal funding for schools who refuse.

Go ahead and take us to Defcon 2.

Read my post on public schools.

It’s all about the day care aspect - it has zero to do with education.

Public schools are about to go extinct. It’s teetering on the ledge and there are some that just can’t wait to push it over the edge for the sake of privatization and profit

 

[dieterbrock]

I don't get this rush to reopen. Look at all the countries in the world that took precautions early and have totally flattened their curve. Because Americans refuse to take it seriously the pandemic in the US is now over 3 MILLION infections.

The USA did flatten the curve, not sure why you suggest otherwise. And as previously posted, all of Europe reopened long before we did.

I also don’t understand the small business owner being able to succeed, as the large companies are the ones open, Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, while the small shops were closed.
it’s not feasible for the shut down to continue, the fed cant keep printing money.

 

[dieterbrock]

Read my post on public schools.

It’s all about the day care aspect - it has zero to do with education.

Public schools are about to go extinct. It’s teetering on the ledge and there are some that just can’t wait to push it over the edge for the sake of privatization and profit

I completely disagree.
The Education that was provided at the end of last year was deplorable. And as a parent of a special needs kid our progress of learning from the first 3/4 of the year was basically thrown in the trash.
I think what’s not being said is that opening the schools is a higher risk to the faculty and staff who need to be fully protected.
the idea that the kids are going to be able to social distance/wear masks just seems unimaginable

 

[12intheBox]

This just in - @Dieter the Brock and @dieterbrock are two different people.

 

[Merlin]

Believe it or not people are making money right now.
Many people are thriving.

Which sectors are you talking about that if you go too far coming back will not be a given?
Restaurants? The Airline industry? clothing retail?

Investor confidence alone can cause a crash. That's a reality irt how long we take to come out of this thing. It's gonna matter so I hope we take a healthy approach wrt our market as much as we can.

But to your question the biggest one right now is small business owners which constitute a healthy portion of the jobs market going forward. How many of them will be able to rebound? Some are doing fine, sure. But to the overall market what percent will disappear along with the jobs that were associated with those businesses. It is almost certain that as we come out of this our jobless rates will hit record figures.

Also the food production industry has been reeling from this from the beginning. Much of their throughput was set based on the restaurant market pulling their weight which has not been the case. Two members of my extended family operate ranches and both are effectively out of the meat business now (both had cattle). Also the packaging is different for restaurants vice groceries and time is ticking on some of their volume behind the scenes not to mention even some of the more durable items like canned goods that are packaged in big cans for businesses.

So behind the scenes right now in food production the yield is being driven down due to more competition which will keep prices low but as we come back from this how many of the companies will have changed their lines to the new reality? This means as we come out food prices are going to skyrocket as restaurants begin pulling their weight again but the production requires time to adjust. I've seen different models but it seems like we're talking a 2 to 4 year period to recover on the production side and that's if the market doesn't see any investor panic.

 

[Merlin]

it’s not feasible for the shut down to continue, the fed cant keep printing money.

Agreed. How do we come out of this thing quickly enough to where the market itself doesn't go belly up. This initial response we've seen with the big companies surviving isn't the only tale that matters. I'm with you man, so here's hoping the leadership of our country from the President down to the members of Congress pull their heads out of their asses and quit the party line bullshit.

Far more is at stake right now than a 4 year term, or a majority in Congress. This is a crucial moment in time IMO.