Mackeyser
Supernovas are where gold forms; the only place.
- Joined
- Apr 26, 2013
- Messages
- 14,435
- Name
- Mack
Well firstly, people in X's bracket ARE getting it.
For those that think it's "just the flu", read this
www.propublica.org
Everyone who sees this up close and personal is terrified of it. When virologists put on their serious hat, that's when to pay attention and they've got sweat stains in their serious hat right now.
Again, the reason China's curve has flattened was a BRUTAL quarantine. Now that restrictions are lifting, there is serious concern of a massive resurgence, especially since transmission is evident while individuals remain asymptomatic and younger people can be asymptomatic for as long as a week.
We know that the first known COVID-19 case was November 17th, was realized to be SARS-nCoV-2 in December and it took them until January 23rd (which included a MASSIVE travel holiday timeframe) to quarantine Wuhan City and while they started with public transport, there was still egress from Wuhan City for some time afterwards as they were still allowing cars to leave.
That's two months from the first case to quarantine. Chinese health agencies and the military actively went into the community and forcibly removed anyone with symptoms to halt the spread. There's been leaked videos coming of of Wuhan showing them dragging people away. Had they allowed the sick to remain at home, many, many more would have been infected due to remaining in close proximity with friends/family members sharing quarantine space.
nypost.com
So, look at the time frame.
First US patient had traveled to Wuhan and saw a health professional in Washington state on January 19th, 2020. We're right at that point where the graph was about to spike for China when they instituted the drastic measures they did. Our numbers only look so low especially with respect to testing due to the lack of tests.
Also, while the travel ban from China by foreign nationals was instituted on January 31st, 2020 (taking effect February 2, 2020 5pm EST), US citizens were still allowed in and if they passed a screening (which simply amounts to being asymptomatic at the time of screening), they were ASKED to self-quarantine. I can almost guarantee that there was nothing in place to track these people nor monitor any level of compliance. If they were asymptomatic, they were simply released into the wild. Thus, any assertion that "China travel was banned" as of 31 Jan 2020 is just not true. Moreover, those evacuated from the Hubei Province, specifically, were taken to Travis AFB in CA, where it was confirmed that the healthcare workers weren't given proper training, instruction or adequate safety gear and the lack of proper procedures allowed for community spread and contain was breached including one of the employees leaving via commercial air travel. The first non-contact related COVID case was near Travis AFB.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19662450/1197826194.jpg.jpg)
www.theverge.com
www.dailymail.co.uk
Now, a couple of things in our favor:
1) China has significant air pollution, much worse than in most places in the US. Much of the population also smokes, although the first US case was a non-smoker in generally good health. Environmental factors do play a role in our immune systems and as such, the fatality MAY end up being higher there due to environmental factors.
2) Both Italy and China not only share a higher percentage of smokers, but also Italy leads the world in multi-generational households. Part of Italy's issues very likely stem from their early nonchalance at the severity of the risk and that may be what has lead to the virus having such a devastating impact on people without medical history.
Things that give concern:
1) We still are not on lockdown and it's unlikely we could do that even if we wanted to. The US is very spread out and much of the nation's population are in cities or suburbs of cities. Moreover, most folks simply do not have the means to stock food for more than a few days. We don't have MREs for 329M people which means we are limited in how we do this.
2) City/State gov't HAD to shut down bars and meeting places because far too many people were congregating in numbers. March 15th, DisneyWorld's last night was PACKED. That means that there will be plenty of people newly infected even now. There is absolutely no contain on this and community spread is already rampant.
3) Ingress of returning citizens was about as bad as it could get as screenings (which only catch symptomatic people) forced people exiting flights to literally stand in crowded areas with people from all over Europe, Africa and Asia (coming from the East) for 3-5 hours only then to have to wait another 5 hours for baggage. Conditions like this were reported at multiple major east coast airports. Incidents like this only reinforce that new contagion is likely and it is environments like this which are breeding grounds for mutations.
Seeing as the R naught value (the rate of human to human spread) of the Corona virus is 2.2 (for historical perspective, the Spanish Flu was 1.8) means that this monster is gonna spread. The R naught value is NOT a measure of how deadly a virus, simply how easy it is to spread. Seasonal flu is 1.3.
What does that mean? Well it's exponential so for every 3 people with seasonal flu, you'd expect 4 people to become infected. At that rate, it would take in excess of 60 days to infect the entire planet not accounting for transmission limits. For COVID-19, a 2.2 puts that number down to 29 days (yes, I've seen 28 days later. Great movie) The point of this basic bit of math is that this bugger moves through the population which is why China went from playing politics to complete quarantine and ripping people from their homes in a matter of days.
TL;dr This was bad even if it stopped today, but it won't and the conditions are ripe for this to be horrific. While there are factors that MIGHT mitigate the effects in the US, there are also factors where it might be worse here due in part to our economics and our food logistics. Oh, and if you get it, it could be mild or it could literally make your lungs bleed and choke you out.
I know I'm not brief, but this info is important. Sorry for anyone who reads it all. It's a lot, I know.
For those that think it's "just the flu", read this
A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients
“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.”
www.propublica.org
Everyone who sees this up close and personal is terrified of it. When virologists put on their serious hat, that's when to pay attention and they've got sweat stains in their serious hat right now.
Again, the reason China's curve has flattened was a BRUTAL quarantine. Now that restrictions are lifting, there is serious concern of a massive resurgence, especially since transmission is evident while individuals remain asymptomatic and younger people can be asymptomatic for as long as a week.
We know that the first known COVID-19 case was November 17th, was realized to be SARS-nCoV-2 in December and it took them until January 23rd (which included a MASSIVE travel holiday timeframe) to quarantine Wuhan City and while they started with public transport, there was still egress from Wuhan City for some time afterwards as they were still allowing cars to leave.
That's two months from the first case to quarantine. Chinese health agencies and the military actively went into the community and forcibly removed anyone with symptoms to halt the spread. There's been leaked videos coming of of Wuhan showing them dragging people away. Had they allowed the sick to remain at home, many, many more would have been infected due to remaining in close proximity with friends/family members sharing quarantine space.
Coronavirus crisis: Video allegedly shows Chinese officials removing people from homes
Chinese authorities are growing more desperate to combat the coronavirus as the death toll keeps soaring: They’re pulling residents out of their homes and banning over-the-counter flu remedie…
nypost.com
So, look at the time frame.
First US patient had traveled to Wuhan and saw a health professional in Washington state on January 19th, 2020. We're right at that point where the graph was about to spike for China when they instituted the drastic measures they did. Our numbers only look so low especially with respect to testing due to the lack of tests.
Also, while the travel ban from China by foreign nationals was instituted on January 31st, 2020 (taking effect February 2, 2020 5pm EST), US citizens were still allowed in and if they passed a screening (which simply amounts to being asymptomatic at the time of screening), they were ASKED to self-quarantine. I can almost guarantee that there was nothing in place to track these people nor monitor any level of compliance. If they were asymptomatic, they were simply released into the wild. Thus, any assertion that "China travel was banned" as of 31 Jan 2020 is just not true. Moreover, those evacuated from the Hubei Province, specifically, were taken to Travis AFB in CA, where it was confirmed that the healthcare workers weren't given proper training, instruction or adequate safety gear and the lack of proper procedures allowed for community spread and contain was breached including one of the employees leaving via commercial air travel. The first non-contact related COVID case was near Travis AFB.
Trump bans foreign nationals who have traveled to China from entering the US
Any US citizen who has traveled in China will undergo health screening.
www.theverge.com
US health workers 'did not have proper training' for coronavirus
One Federal employee is even said to have stayed in a nearby hotel before leaving on a commercial flight. Report concerns Federal workers at two two military bases in California.
Now, a couple of things in our favor:
1) China has significant air pollution, much worse than in most places in the US. Much of the population also smokes, although the first US case was a non-smoker in generally good health. Environmental factors do play a role in our immune systems and as such, the fatality MAY end up being higher there due to environmental factors.
2) Both Italy and China not only share a higher percentage of smokers, but also Italy leads the world in multi-generational households. Part of Italy's issues very likely stem from their early nonchalance at the severity of the risk and that may be what has lead to the virus having such a devastating impact on people without medical history.
Things that give concern:
1) We still are not on lockdown and it's unlikely we could do that even if we wanted to. The US is very spread out and much of the nation's population are in cities or suburbs of cities. Moreover, most folks simply do not have the means to stock food for more than a few days. We don't have MREs for 329M people which means we are limited in how we do this.
2) City/State gov't HAD to shut down bars and meeting places because far too many people were congregating in numbers. March 15th, DisneyWorld's last night was PACKED. That means that there will be plenty of people newly infected even now. There is absolutely no contain on this and community spread is already rampant.
3) Ingress of returning citizens was about as bad as it could get as screenings (which only catch symptomatic people) forced people exiting flights to literally stand in crowded areas with people from all over Europe, Africa and Asia (coming from the East) for 3-5 hours only then to have to wait another 5 hours for baggage. Conditions like this were reported at multiple major east coast airports. Incidents like this only reinforce that new contagion is likely and it is environments like this which are breeding grounds for mutations.
Seeing as the R naught value (the rate of human to human spread) of the Corona virus is 2.2 (for historical perspective, the Spanish Flu was 1.8) means that this monster is gonna spread. The R naught value is NOT a measure of how deadly a virus, simply how easy it is to spread. Seasonal flu is 1.3.
What does that mean? Well it's exponential so for every 3 people with seasonal flu, you'd expect 4 people to become infected. At that rate, it would take in excess of 60 days to infect the entire planet not accounting for transmission limits. For COVID-19, a 2.2 puts that number down to 29 days (yes, I've seen 28 days later. Great movie) The point of this basic bit of math is that this bugger moves through the population which is why China went from playing politics to complete quarantine and ripping people from their homes in a matter of days.
TL;dr This was bad even if it stopped today, but it won't and the conditions are ripe for this to be horrific. While there are factors that MIGHT mitigate the effects in the US, there are also factors where it might be worse here due in part to our economics and our food logistics. Oh, and if you get it, it could be mild or it could literally make your lungs bleed and choke you out.
I know I'm not brief, but this info is important. Sorry for anyone who reads it all. It's a lot, I know.
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