Covid 19 thread

[ozarkram]

I'm guessing the tents are in anticipation of quarantine requirements, so that they'll have the facilities to contain things if the spread spikes on the base.

Honestly the US bases are a great place to be during something like this. I know you commute, but still. They tend to do a really good job given all the training military receive in CBR, and are well prepared to handle things.

Today's US mortality rate is 1.1% btw, so it isn't spiking or anything which is good. Really the biggest threat to us right now is the market crashing and food distribution falling apart. I really hope they're keeping a close eye on those things.

Hey Mac how are you man. Yeah I agree they do a great job on the base wonderful people. Food distribution is all ready a huge problem.

 

[Merlin]

Hey Mac how are you man. Yeah I agree they do a great job on the base wonderful people. Food distribution is all ready a huge problem.

Doing good my man. Thinking about finding a mosque where I can lick a holy emblem or something so I can put this fucking virus behind me.

Have they said anything about anticipating shortages in the distro of meats due to this?

 

[ozarkram]

Doing good my man. Thinking about finding a mosque where I can lick a holy emblem or something so I can put this fucking virus behind me.

Have they said anything about anticipating shortages in the distro of meats due to this?

Sadly yes. Trucks of everything are being cut or just not delivered. They cant send what they don't have. I have never seen any thing like this in the forty years in both the private sector or with the government. They cant get time to catch up.

 

[ozarkram]

@Merlin and may I add god bless the truckers without them this country would be double screwed.

 

[Mackeyser]

Well, first let me say, since you are in one of the higher risk groups, stay safe, stay isolated as much as possible and take care of yourself. Hope you come out of this ok.

That being said, the article in question is based on data and reasonable extrapolation thereof, along with a healthy dose of logic. It's very telling, as the article states, that only 17% of the passengers from the cruise ship Diamond Princess - a demographic that trends toward the elderly - test positive for the corona virus, and over HALF of those passengers were asymptomatic. If that's the best the virus can do in an entire month in the close-quartered environment of a cruise ship with one of the more vulnerable demographics, then perhaps it isn't as deadly as many fear.



There is a lot you are leaving out. For one, Iran (like Italy) is partner with China in the OBOR (One Belt, One Road) initiative, and thus has much closer ties with them than Beijing than we do in the U.S. That means they've had a significant amount of inbound traffic from China and were thus at the end of a huge vector of spreading the virus. Furthermore, they don't have near the health care system we do, as their government prioritizes funding terrorism over funding things that can help their citizens.

To make matters worse, in the epicenter of the pandemic within Iran, Qom, there were reports about people going around tempting fate by licking things (literally) to show the world that Allah would protect them. Allah apparently didn't get the memo.


View: https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1233783635007954949?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1233783635007954949&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.teaparty247.org%2Firanians-engage-in-disgusting-unsanitary-measures-to-ward-off-coronavirus-even-as-death-toll-climbs%2F





We are way ahead of Italy. We shut down all traffic from China on January 31st, while Italy allowed traffic from China to continue until things got out of hand (as mentioned above, they are also part of the OBOR initiative, same as Iran). The epicenter in that country is the fashion area where there is (or at least was) a significant amount of incoming traffic from China and a lot of Chinese immigrants. Add to the fact that it's customary for Italians to greet each other with kisses on each cheek and the virtue signaling of the mayor of Florence initiating a "Hug a Chinese" day on February 1st, and you have a recipe for fast spread of the virus. No such thing happened here. They are also a nation where smoking occurs on a much higher per capita basis than the US.



No offense, but this is so gobsmackingly wrong, it's hard to know where to start. But I'll give it a go anyway. Travel from China was cut off on January 31st. Travel from Europe was cut off earlier this month. Travel from Canada was shut off yesterday. Generally speaking, we have significantly reduced the vectors by which new cases can be imported into the country from outside sources. Cutting off travel from China early very likely blunted the impact of the virus over here, as we were receiving 10,000 travelers per day from that part of the world, and then it dropped to zero literally overnight.

Meanwhile, school systems are shut down across the country. Most people who can work at home are doing so. Bars and restaurants are shut down for indoor dining through much of the country. Movie theaters are completely shut down for much of the country. People are generally isolating themselves more, even if they don't have any symptoms and have no other reason to believe they've come in contact with the virus. Meanwhile testing is increasing for those that do have symptoms.

With all that, our caseload is relatively small given our population, and in absolute numbers, still quite a bit smaller in absolute terms than either Iran or Italy, who you mentioned above, and that's despite the fact that our population is several times greater. While the number of positively diagnosed cases is increasing (largely due to increased testing), but the number of deaths is not rising at the same rate. It took over 70 days for the U.S. to reach 100 deaths, and the rate of deaths has remained relatively steady, and nothing close to exponential as many warned us it would be. And around 1/3 of those deaths were from one particular nursing home in Washington. As of this morning, Washington had over half of the COVD-19 deaths in the country, while no other state had even reached 15 deaths yet.

To summarize the previous three paragraphs, through both the actions that have been taken (both government and private sector), as well as the results we are seeing, this country is doing quite a bit to stop this virus. We are certainly doing much more than we did for the H1N1 swine flu in 2009, which infected millions and killed around 12,000. At the rate this virus is going, we will fall short of those numbers by orders by at least an order of magnitude, if not more.

Again, I get that you are scared, and you have my sympathy. I understand that at a personal level, all the numbers and statistics don't mean shit when you are in one of the higher-risk groups. But you know what you need to do to prevent it, so take care of yourself and focus on what you can control. When looking at the larger picture, don't let the personal fear cloud your judgement of what is going on, because this country is doing more than enough (maybe too much) to get this under control.

This is not the swine flu, it's not the bubonic plague, it's not Stephen King's The Stand come to life. It's something to take serious enough, but not something where fear should be the main driver of our actions.

I'll be brief

South Korean testing showed that the plurality of the group that spreads while asymptomatic were 18-29yos. More than 30% of positive tests. There are similarities with Spanish flu in this regard that preferred younger people and incited a cytokine storm which basically turned the person's immune system on full blast and broke the off switch.

Using the cruise, have you been on one? There are very few of those folks on the ship including staff. As Asian cruises are more expensive, there are fewer families on them as they tend to be longer and require very long flights to get to. Moreover, older people tend to become symptomatic MUCH faster leading to faster containment and reduced infection rates. That was seen on the ship and everywhere else as well.

Also, we're not seeing the whole story. We've been told that this mostly affects those like me. Well...not so much. I'll leave a video at the bottom from SkyNews from a hospital in northern Italy.

Yes the spread in Iran was caused in part by young idiots. I really don't care to parse young Iranian idiots licking things because "Allah" or young American idiots going to DisneyWorld because "freedom". I mean how stupid did people have to be to literally line up to congregate at bars at 8am to show that they think it was all a hoax? It's all silly shit which ignores science. And Iran has been low on medical supplies for a very long time due to sanctions. Yes, the Silk Road played a part, but we're also seeing some really good science come from Iran and it's scary af. The worst is that an overwhelmed system can truly lead to devastating outcomes.

Lastly, travel shut down doesn't mean anything because we have community spread. I've told this story before, but I'll tell it again. I'll preface this by saying that with community spread, especially if one of the results of illness is pneumonia is VASTLY UNDERREPORTED.

I'm mostly a housebound Service Connected Disabled Vet. I've had the good fortune to meet folks here during two games in Tampa. Thankfully, I had good days which can be rare for me. I miss a lot of stuff. Anyway, I mostly stay in my house. When Swine flu was here, there were SIX published cases of it in the entire state of FL, NONE within 100 miles of me. It was summer, right before school started, so no spread from school. All 4 kids were school age, no jobs and wife is my caregiver. We don't eat out at restaurants, go to bars or even the movies. And yet, with only SIX cases of Swine flu in the state of FL, I felt sick, went to the VA and tested positive. My family had to quarantine for a week.

The point of that is that I've personally lived the "there's no way you can get this" thing and the "we've got contain, there is no community spread" thing and I got it. The ONLY way it woulda been possible is if community spread were MUCH more prevalent than authorities tell the public. And it is.

A few weeks ago, Italy really got serious about contain. In the US, schools may be closed, but CA still allows outdoor exercise and grocery stores are still open, everywhere. Many people are still going to work. Community spread is still happening ESPECIALLY because the most prolific spreaders of COVID are the young, asymptomatic people who at worst may see mild symptoms and can spread it for as much as 39 days even as symptoms subside. I'd provide a link, but the link to the paper is buried in my twitter feed and I suck at remembering to bookmark. I'll look to see if I can find it.

My only point is that as a pattern recognition person, the patterns are all there for this to be really, really bad. It might not be, but when I see patterns like this, I'm rarely wrong.

If we get lucky and there's a mutation which renders this virus harmless like in the end of The Andromeda Strain, then awesome. But even if patterns hold and we don't see a mutation which is much more virulent like what happened with Spanish Flu in 1918 (the 1917 variant was the mild strain from Kansas which we exported with our Doughboys to France in WWI), the numbers or behavioral patterns don't add up to people's hopes.

And I'm not so much worried for me. If I get it, the VA will be able to take me or they won't and I'll go quickly in a grizzly fashion. I'm worried for my family and for those who aren't getting good information about this and won't until it's too late if ever.

Anyway, my point is that at every point, this virus has been underestimated. Just look at the threads here on this. It went from a joke to a mild concern to a modest concern to a "okay, this is serious, but calm down, it's not THAT serious".

All the science says that's wrong and in places where due to negligence or lack of supplies, it's not been taken seriously, it's proven to be quite deadly.

 

[Mackeyser]

COVID is also taking out those who need life saving transplants as those have been suspended in the US and in many parts of the world as well.

I can't imagine finally finding a donor liver or kidney and then being told no, due to all resources being pushed to COVID. That'd be heartbreaking.

 

[Merlin]

I'll be brief

Lies.

 

[Mackeyser]

My sons bosses’ brother is the 2 in our states national guard.
He a meeting with the governor and some staff last night.
Advised his brother (my sons boss) to prepare because “it’s about to get real”.
I don’t know what that means.
I expect some sort of presence on the low end to martial law on the high end.
Things are getting weird.

We have no video from China, but if the vid I posted from Northern Italy is ANY indication, with stressed Drs having to decide who gets a ventilator and who doesn't and just has to die there on a gurney... yeah, that's about as real as it gets.

 

[Mackeyser]

I hesitate too post this for several reasons. The main reason being I don't want to add to the panic. To this point I had resigned myself to, most of us are going to get this virus but I hadn't thought about it much beyond that. Until last night. I work on a military base. What I do there is not Top Secret or anything but it is important I believe. I am in constant contact with the public (active duty,guard, reserve,families, foreign troops etc) Yesterday the base went to health protection Bravo. Which in a nut shell means the base has been compromised but the risk is low. Now of course as in any situation like this rumors are flying most of which I ignore. Last night I was talking with my second in command who is in constant contact with garrison command. She ask me what scared me about this situation I told her my feelings on the subject. She listened to me then said " I will tell you what scares me. They are building tent cities on the base." Now I have no inside information and this may just be the next prudent step but I found it quite unsettling. I do believe the information is accurate but what the end game is I don't know.

The tent cities are likely going to be quarantine for positive tests when hospitals run out of capacity. There are reports with photos of various, guarded, improvised facilities. The concerning part is the fencing with barbed wire, but I guess one has to be serious about containment for it to work...

 

[Dieter the Brock]

China gets a glimpse of life on the other side of coronavirus

Restrictions are being eased across China as the number of new infections recorded drops sharply

www.google.com

 

[Mackeyser]

Logic would tell us it has been here for months.
By the time the Chinese identified it (I’m sure before they went public with it) I’m sure months had gone by. How many people had it there? Tens of thousands?
International travel etc. It has been here.
I’m sure it has been here for months.
This is probably the second round of infections. Many pandemics including Spanish flu (which had three rounds of infection) the second round was the most serious and deadly.
Add in the fact that some people supposedly show no symptoms but are contagious and it has likely been wide spread.
About had my office was sick late last year with symptoms that were sort of cold like but without all the runny nose stuff. Had a dry cough that lasted weeks. With mine I had a few days with a fever that came and went a couple of times a day and the dry cough that lasted about three weeks.
My mother had the same thing. Feeling worn down with some body soreness, dry cough that went on and on. She has COPD and ended up in the hospital on a ventilator for a couple of days.
Was this Covid? Is there more than one strain? Who knows?
The tent city thing is very disconcerting.
Certainly feeds the paranoia monster of anyone that doesn’t trust the government.....which is anyone with sense in my opinion.
But at the end of the day, what can an individual do? Not fuck all.
As testing expands the number of cases will widely expand. No surprise there.
Have a package of disinfectant wipes I bought months ago....says on the package, “Effective against cold virus caused by coronavirus”. Thought that was interesting.
Are the tent cities likely based on responses to previous pandemics? You can find old photos during the Spanish Flu with hundreds and hundreds of beds lined up in make shift facilities.
Can people be infected more than once?
More than one strain?
A lot we are not being told for sure.
Strange times.

Wow... wife had that too. Took FOREVER for her to shake it. If so, hoping it confers at least limited immunity. Silver lining and all that...

Also, there are TWO known strains of COVID-19, an S strain and an L strain. The S strain is the ancestral strain. The L strain is the newer and seemingly more virulent strain. I've seen mention of other strains, but nothing published scientifically.

 

[Mackeyser]

Interesting. I’ve done a lot of reading on this situation, and looked at all the stats, and even farmed some Nobel prize winning recipients’ thoughts on the math regarding this. On the surface, the panic and over preparedness surrounding this is not proportional to the threat. Let me say that again. On the surface. Farr’s law suggests this thing will end sooner than anyone expects since we’ve already seen the peak in China (if you believe their reporting).

There’s also the fact that the media’s initial projections for total number of people dead was way way way over the top. That probably caused a lot of the initial panic.

Finally, there was not a similar response to the h1n1 Virus Just a decade ago. None of what we are seeing now happened then. 12,000+ people died in the U.S.,, and it didn’t come close to feeling like the apocalyptic event that it does now. it may sound like a tinfoil hat statement, but this almost feels like a test run for something much much bigger. Or it could just be the way society is now. We are so oversensitve to aggression, in every form, that the response has to match the PERCEIVED level of the threat. I don’t know man. There’s just something really “off” about this whole thing.

I think the "off" feeling comes from how this has been underestimated all along. Just read this thread. Anyone saying what was said on the first page NOW would be seen in a very unflattering light...as being in denial.

I also think a lot of it has to do with that our cases haven't gotten to the point in the curve where we're seeing mass cases. The tsunami has hit other places, but for now for us the water is just receding and it's hard to wrap out heads around exactly how much water is headed at us.

 

[Mackeyser]

Are you basing that on a 100% contraction rate? The full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not get tested and therefore won’t be identified. Those cases can’t be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent cases.

True. Also, when it comes to pneumonia, any disease with results in a death due to pneumonia will be underreported, everything from AIDS to COVID.

I've nearly died twice from pneumonia and had it multiple times and not once was I interviewed by anyone to understand the transmission or origin.

Pneumonia may be where a disease stops, but it's often enough not the initial cause. Pneumonia can be the shit that happens BECAUSE of something else, but we don't have any numbers because we don't seek out the pathology of it often enough.

 

[-X-]

True. Also, when it comes to pneumonia, any disease with results in a death due to pneumonia will be underreported, everything from AIDS to COVID.

I've nearly died twice from pneumonia and had it multiple times and not once was I interviewed by anyone to understand the transmission or origin.

Pneumonia may be where a disease stops, but it's often enough not the initial cause. Pneumonia can be the shit that happens BECAUSE of something else, but we don't have any numbers because we don't seek out the pathology of it often enough.

Pneumonia sucks balls. I had that once too and it was the WORST. But as I said in another thread, the codeine cough syrup was the bomb.

 

[Mackeyser]

Yeah I’m not on the conspiracy train either. I just know that all viruses start, rise, peak, flatten, and dissipate. All of them. And with the advances in immunology, micro biology, chemistry, etc. that we have now, I don’t understand the disproportionate response to this one. That’s all. While deadly, it’s no more deadly than the flu in how it affects the immuno compromised, the elderly, and the already infirmed. I understand that it’s a new strain, and that nobody has antibodies in them for it, but again; it doesn’t take long to develop a vaccine in this day and age. I mean I get the desire to mitigate the risk of exposure, but I don’t get people’s desire to hoard everything in sight as if to prepare for the end of days. Especially when you consider how the healthy are either not affected at all, affected only a little, or get sick and get well within a matter of days. It’s just weird.

it must also be weird not seeing hordes of people up there in Asheville lately. That place is usually a mad house 24/7. I do like the decrease in traffic lately though. Makes me think that Thanos was not such a bad guy after all. He just saw a problem and tried to solve it. I know that sounds dark, twisted, and insensitive, but let’s be real; everybody thinks there are too many people now.

Yes, it's a novel virus and vaccines are a good 12-18 months away. That's a REALLY long time in a world with a JIT global supply chain.

What's scary is that the second strain mutated in a more dangerous way. Also, the transmission vector is almost a "how to win Plague, Inc." in that it sets up young people to be a bunch of Typhoid Marys spreading the virus with relatively minor issues.

I dunno. Honestly, I've never wanted to be wrong about something MORE than on this.

 

[Mackeyser]

@Merlin and may I add god bless the truckers without them this country would be double screwed.

When I go to pick up my son from work down I75, it's like half big rigs. Pretty sure they're running the drivers ragged right now.

 

[-X-]

I think the "off" feeling comes from how this has been underestimated all along. Just read this thread. Anyone saying what was said on the first page NOW would be seen in a very unflattering light...as being in denial.

I still don’t think it’s any bigger threat than the flu in terms of who’s the most vulnerable to it. That’s just me though I guess. I stick by my initial reaction.

 

[Mackeyser]

Flu doesn't do what this virus is doing.

And I'm CERTAIN that the gov'ts of the world and multi-billion and trillion dollar companies wouldn't be tanking the economy and buying into this for PR.

I've been reading accounts from Anesthetists and Respiratory Nurses in affected areas and their accounts not just of who this affects (40-50yos without any history, meaning healthy people) but how quickly this shit goes from bad to catastrophic is harrowing.

Remember, Wuhan is STILL on lockdown over a month later. Northern Italy, the same. That's what it took to STOP the transmission and it has taken a full MONTH of full lockdown.

We STILL don't have that in the US. I can get in my car and go to the gas station or grocer store right now.

I hope your right and the worst of this will be getting the economy back on track.

I wouldn't bet on it, tho.

 

[Mojo Ram]

@Merlin and may I add god bless the truckers without them this country would be double screwed.

Yep. Right on down the line to your grocery cart. Those lines of distribution are critical. Always have been. I'd like to believe that the general public will have a new found sense of appreciation for the little people who allow the food distro to keep flowing in times like these.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Yep. Right on down the line to your grocery cart. Those lines of distribution are critical. Always have been. I'd like to believe that the general public will have a new found sense of appreciation for the little people who allow the food distro to keep flowing in times like these.

I just drove from Santa Barbara to Austin and every truck I passed I gave thanks and said “supply chain” and realized that these guys are still working and taking care of all of us. I will be going back Monday after closing my distribution deal and will do the same coming back.
Just got back from Whole Foods in Bee Caves (austin) everyone is being so cordial to each other and there was plenty of food available. I stocked up on rice and beans - which is what I’ve been eating anyway during the last year. I hope that we all learn how connected we are and carry this understanding into the future. We will get though this. It will be handled in due time.
Anyway, this isn’t the end of the world.
Moving forward everyone should have a greater appreciation of how the world works. And God willing shift our attitudes accordingly