Covid 19 thread

[Ramlock]

Ugh, that’s an incredibly complicated question, and what much of this entire thread has been about.

For me, the most egregious and destructive refusal to listen to science has been this:

The science of epidemiology said that after a lockdown, you have to make sure the virus is tamped down to very low levels for two weeks before gradually reopening. Instead, many governors in the USA chose to ignore that warning and reopened way too quickly. And now basically our whole country is fucked, and will be fucked for many months to come.

Meanwhile, the many other countries which adhered to to basic science of reopening strategy are doing infinitely better than we are.

Edit: the post directly above this one is an excellent example as well.

Re-opening was so poorly defined and executed in many ways...and dumbasses started humping each other on beaches in great numbers, among other things.

Take Florida man, for example...

 

[OldSchool]

Who exactly isn’t listening to science?

It isn’t that, it’s just people listen to other scientist so they’re bad people Honestly that’s what most of the arguments boil down to, listen to this persons science not that other persons.

 

[Mojo Ram]

I "think" i've decided to step out of this conversation. In order to hammer my POV on this, it can't be done without coming across as completely insensitive or selfish. Science is unemotional. Science is not selfish.
Deaths, hospitalizations etc are all tragic. ALL lives matter, but that caveat doesn't seem to be enough when discussing the numbers have shown since the beginning that this is a virus that is targeting the old, the elderly, the obese and the weak. The outliers are just that.

Here's an emotional response from me: I see hundreds of high risk and extreme high risk Americans every day leave their house, drive to the grocery store(several times a week) and i think to myself "You shouldn't be here. Wtf are you doing here?"

Just about every major chain in America offers contactless FREE grocery pick up. I know these folks watch the news, the old & elderly watch a fuck ton of news. Maybe it's because since the beginning the news media hasn't been selling this for what it is. Instead we get "YOU'RE ALL AT RISK(of what exactly?). BE AFRAID. MORE POSITIVE CASES. MORE DEATHS(we're not gonna stress to you that 80+% of them are over 65 and/or aren't healthy).

It's Bullshit. Instead of protecting and informing those who really need/needed to be protected and extremely vigilant, this has been an overblown, misrepresented blanket response of political garbage and fear porn directed towards everyone.

The broken economy, the millions of (Covid)low risk lives wrecked by this....why? Unbelievable.

The true nature of Covid is like the fine print at the bottom of a contract.

 

[thirteen28]

You’re right 1328, my civility has eroded lately. Sorry about that. Using the word “laughable“ was not cool, my apologies.

No problem.

Of course, I've never been a dick in this thread myself ...

My point still stands though. Saying that HCQ “works” is using the same outdated logic of the snake oil salesman of the 1700’s: “people seem to think it works.” Now in 2020, we have scientific methods available to find objective proof.

You can't say it works as a blanket statement, but we have plenty of cases now where it did work. And we have the FDA director saying a decision to use it should be between a patient and their doctor. And it takes a doctor's prescription to get it. That's good enough for me.

As far as "listening to the science" goes as you discussed with X, it would sure as shit help if the data we had wasn't such absolute dogshit to the point that we really don't have a true picture of how many died explicitly from Covid, or for that matter, how many really even got sick. Bad data breeds bad science, and it also breeds a shitload of skepticism.

 

[dieterbrock]

I was tempted to put "thread winner" on this post because it epitomizes everything wrong with the way the USA has handled this epidemic.

"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead!" is the way to ensure that many people die AND our economy remains in the tank. As long as the virus remains widespread, businesses will be forced to shut down as people remain too afraid to be consumers.

Had we listened to science and done it THE RIGHT WAY THE FIRST TIME, and had the patience and the discipline to carry out a coordinated 50-state plan to clamp down HARD in April and May, we could have smothered this pandemic into a manageable brush fire.

But instead, the message was, "Don't listen to science, we need to fully open up!"

We had no coordinated scientific plan on re-opening, and now we're screwed.

@12intheBox
Do you realize that all of Europe sent their kids back to school in May? China in April? While their numbers were still spiking? Also of note, Europe had much more lenient mask requirements.
The US had flattened the curve. Largely due to NYC metro area getting control. And when they re-opened, that area maintained the flattening, while other areas, Florida, Texas & Arizona then spiked where they seemingly were under control.
I'll never understand the desire to twist things with the intention of slamming the US as a whole.
Yes, we had a spike in this country and while many are quick to pass judgement on mask or lack thereof wearing, the effect of the mass riots/protests/demonstrations is waived off.
Deaths down, hospitalizations down, testing up tremendously.
The economy cant recover with so many out of work. If kids arent back to school, dual income families are screwed. If hospitality businesses are held to a 25% capacity threshold (NYC metro), they cant staff up. Pro sports are trying to play, with no fans. Which means no concessions, no vendors, no parking attending. IE Loss of major jobs.
Yes adhering to science has major effect on economy

 

[12intheBox]

@12intheBox
Do you realize that all of Europe sent their kids back to school in May? China in April? While their numbers were still spiking? Also of note, Europe had much more lenient mask requirements.
The US had flattened the curve. Largely due to NYC metro area getting control. And when they re-opened, that area maintained the flattening, while other areas, Florida, Texas & Arizona then spiked where they seemingly were under control.
I'll never understand the desire to twist things with the intention of slamming the US as a whole.
Yes, we had a spike in this country and while many are quick to pass judgement on mask or lack thereof wearing, the effect of the mass riots/protests/demonstrations is waived off.
Deaths down, hospitalizations down, testing up tremendously.
The economy cant recover with so many out of work. If kids arent back to school, dual income families are screwed. If hospitality businesses are held to a 25% capacity threshold (NYC metro), they cant staff up. Pro sports are trying to play, with no fans. Which means no concessions, no vendors, no parking attending. IE Loss of major jobs.
Yes adhering to science has major effect on economy

Even if all of Europe had begun school in May (which they didn’t - different countries started at different times and some are about to) - look at their curve. Notice anything different about where they were and where we are?

Granted - China’s data is suspect - but if you take their data at face value - they have stomped their curve. I’d be interested to learn where you got data that they were spiking in April.

As for the US - you mentioned the Covid tracking project earlier - and I agree - they seem balanced as far as I can tell - it’s just data collection. Is the data perfect? I doubt it - like John Hopkins, they are just collecting data from available sources as best they can to keep us informed.

I know school is important - and some families don’t have any choice at all. It’s a problem without a good solution right now. Captain Hindsight could probably save us - but not being able to go back and get a redo on the last 4 months, we really are in trouble. What we should not do is just continue to make the same mistakes - we should not walk directly into the disaster and just hope for the best. Many schools are already starting this fall remotely - which sucks, but like the spring, it’s what they have to do. We need to take that time and flatten the curve (again). And this time, we need to reopen smarter. Better choices, more preventative measures. Suck it up and make the sacrifice. It is not a good solution - I know that. I’m not sure a good solution exists at this point - but it’s better than crossing our fingers. Reopening without crushing this will not help the economy - I firmly believe it will make it worse.

Having said all that - I’m pretty sure this forum is tired of me and I could use a break myself.

I hope we get football this year. Stay safe - care for one another - think critically.

 

[thirteen28]

Granted - China’s data is suspect - but if you take their data at face value - they have stomped their curve.

I would trust the cleanliness of a whore in a navy town late in a military payday before I trusted China's data. They have pretty well proven that they cannot be trusted with anything at this point.

 

[kurtfaulk]

.

twitter and facebook acting like 99% of the facts on their sites are actually factual.

their sites are like looking into a toilet bowl after taking a shit.

now they're both bastions of truth.

.

 

[dieterbrock]

Even if all of Europe had begun school in May (which they didn’t - different countries started at different times and some are about to) - look at their curve. Notice anything different about where they were and where we are?

View attachment 38006

Granted - China’s data is suspect - but if you take their data at face value - they have stomped their curve. I’d be interested to learn where you got data that they were spiking in April.

As for the US - you mentioned the Covid tracking project earlier - and I agree - they seem balanced as far as I can tell - it’s just data collection. Is the data perfect? I doubt it - like John Hopkins, they are just collecting data from available sources as best they can to keep us informed.

I know school is important - and some families don’t have any choice at all. It’s a problem without a good solution right now. Captain Hindsight could probably save us - but not being able to go back and get a redo on the last 4 months, we really are in trouble. What we should not do is just continue to make the same mistakes - we should not walk directly into the disaster and just hope for the best. Many schools are already starting this fall remotely - which sucks, but like the spring, it’s what they have to do. We need to take that time and flatten the curve (again). And this time, we need to reopen smarter. Better choices, more preventative measures. Suck it up and make the sacrifice. It is not a good solution - I know that. I’m not sure a good solution exists at this point - but it’s better than crossing our fingers. Reopening without crushing this will not help the economy - I firmly believe it will make it worse.

Having said all that - I’m pretty sure this forum is tired of me and I could use a break myself.

I hope we get football this year. Stay safe - care for one another - think critically.

What your graph shows is both Europe and the US flattened the curve, but Europe sent their kids back to school while the US didn’t.
And look who’s curve shot up and who’s didnt.
Here’s a pretty interesting article, which explains the benefits of kids being back at school.
And it’s science based.
Maybe we just listen to the wrong people

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

 

[XXXIVwin]

What your graph shows is both Europe and the US flattened the curve, but Europe sent their kids back to school while the US didn’t.
And look who’s curve shot up and who’s didnt.

I think you forgot the blue font. You can’t seriously be stating this without irony.

And as for the article, you seem to have missed the big disclaimer. They made a point to emphasize it not once, not twice, but three times:

*Update, 8 July, 12:45 p.m.: This story was updated to further emphasize that the degree of viral spread in the community may impact school reopenings.

That’s the key point in the whole article. If community spread is low, the benefits can outweigh the risks. But if community spread is high, you’re asking for trouble.

Take Israel for example. Just read an article entitled “Israeli data show school openings were a disaster that wiped out lockdown gains.” (Won’t post a link because it has some political commentary).

Here’s an excerpt:

“Whatever else we say, the fact is that schools were not prepared to take students back under the necessary conditions to contain the epidemic....The reopening happened too fast. It was undertaken so quickly that it triggered a very sharp spike, and the return to more conservative measures came too little, much too late,” Khatib says, summing up Israel’s dilemma.

The push to reopen schools in USA “hot spots” is going to be a disaster, just like it was in Israel.

 

[Mojo Ram]

Having said all that - I’m pretty sure this forum is tired of me and I could use a break myself.

Nah. I'm just tired of Covid, masks, mandates, political posturing, the media etc. You keep on. I respect everyone's opinions in here.

 

[RamBall]

Ugh, that’s an incredibly complicated question, and what much of this entire thread has been about.

For me, the most egregious and destructive refusal to listen to science has been this:

The science of epidemiology said that after a lockdown, you have to make sure the virus is tamped down to very low levels for two weeks before gradually reopening. Instead, many governors in the USA chose to ignore that warning and reopened way too quickly. And now basically our whole country is fucked, and will be fucked for many months to come.

Meanwhile, the many other countries which adhered to to basic science of reopening strategy are doing infinitely better than we are.

Edit: the post directly above this one is an excellent example as well.

The problem with the way this has been handled is that we have been quarantining everyone. That makes no sense, you quarantine the sick and the high risk people. There are counties that have had more suicides than covid deaths recently. I cant speak for most of the country, but here in California we have yet to open up on a large scale. IMO the protests and riots have had a bigger impact on spreading covid than opening up for business has. I think we all know this virus can be deadly for the elderly and the unhealthy. Those from 49 and under are not very likely to need medical treatment, that makes up most of the population in my county. By forcing those that are not at high risk to stay home and just dont worry about how you will feed your family or pay your mortgage/rent. Suicides, overdoses, alcoholism and drug addiction start killing more people than the lock down will save. Plus all the emotional damage done to children and spouses in abusive relationships. IMO it is more callous to just let these things happen then it is to protect those that are high risk and let the rest get back to life. At one point in NY over 60% of the new covid cases were people that had been self quarantining in their own home, so how can quarantining be the safest option we have? When you have people that are classified as essential workers and they arent dropping dead due to their exposure. I wear a mask for work but not when I go grocery shopping. When I was sick and the Dr said I should be tested, it wasnt because I dont wear a mask grocery shopping, it was because I am exposed to about 6 households or more per day at work, with a mask on. The shop I work out of has about 60ish techs that do the same job I do, I'm the only one that has contracted covid, I may take more risk than many of my coworkers, as I would enter a customers home to help them set up their equipment, even when we were not supposed to. I didnt get sick until after that policy had been lifted and we were permitted to enter homes. My wife was quarantined in the same house as me for 14 days and she never contracted covid, neither of us wore a mask in our home. We did sleep in separate rooms and use different bathrooms but we werent spraying disinfectant everywhere. Just usual hygiene, wash your hands regularly and wipe down the counters after making a meal. This whole economy vs health is nothing more than political gamesmanship. The same political party that want the economy to crash also want the deaths to skyrocket. So what it really boils down to is staying as healthy as we can while getting the economy going again.

 

[Mackeyser]

My youngest is now down with fever. They are 20 years old and work a retail job. They are otherwise perfectly healthy with no underlying health issues and ZERO co-morbidities. We all have been strident in safeguarding and following protocol, but we’re in Florida so seems it wasn’t enough.

We’ll get them tested tomorrow and have the results in a few days, but as they are almost never sick, I’d be surprised if it were anything other than COVID.

So, yeah... I really don’t wanna hear a single fucking thing about how no one except old people are affected by this.

Also, seeing as we’re both night owls and have been spending a lot of time together lately... well, we’ll see how it all plays out in the next few days.

 

[RamBall]

My youngest is now down with fever. They are 20 years old and work a retail job. They are otherwise perfectly healthy with no underlying health issues and ZERO co-morbidities. We all have been strident in safeguarding and following protocol, but we’re in Florida so seems it wasn’t enough.

We’ll get them tested tomorrow and have the results in a few days, but as they are almost never sick, I’d be surprised if it were anything other than COVID.

So, yeah... I really don’t wanna hear a single fucking thing about how no one except old people are affected by this.

Also, seeing as we’re both night owls and have been spending a lot of time together lately... well, we’ll see how it all plays out in the next few days.

I hope it's not covid, it sounds like they live with you or at least spends time with you. My wife kept trying to convince me I just had a cold as I have been sick 3 times in the 31 yrs she has known me. Know that you and your family are in my prayers.

 

[kurtfaulk]

My youngest is now down with fever. They are 20 years old and work a retail job. They are otherwise perfectly healthy with no underlying health issues and ZERO co-morbidities. We all have been strident in safeguarding and following protocol, but we’re in Florida so seems it wasn’t enough.

We’ll get them tested tomorrow and have the results in a few days, but as they are almost never sick, I’d be surprised if it were anything other than COVID.

So, yeah... I really don’t wanna hear a single fucking thing about how no one except old people are affected by this.

Also, seeing as we’re both night owls and have been spending a lot of time together lately... well, we’ll see how it all plays out in the next few days.

fingers crossed man.

.

 

[-X-]

So, yeah... I really don’t wanna hear a single fucking thing about how no one except old people are affected by this.

I believe the argument is that the overwhelming amount of people dying from this are the elderly. Not that nobody else can be affected. If there are no comorbidities, and they're 20, I seriously doubt you have anything to worry about. *If* that's even what they have. Keep a positive attitude, m'man. It's gonna be fine.

 

[dieterbrock]

“Whatever else we say, the fact is that schools were not prepared to take students back under the necessary conditions to contain the epidemic....The reopening happened too fast. It was undertaken so quickly that it triggered a very sharp spike, and the return to more conservative measures came too little, much too late,” Khatib says, summing up Israel’s dilemma.

The push to reopen schools in USA “hot spots” is going to be a disaster, just like it was in Israel.

No, I think you are just choosing to discard anything that doesnt line up. Out of all the success stories in there, China/Europe, you choose to point to Israel who wasnt prepared to begin with.
If you dont think the US had flattened the curve, there isnt any point in discussing any more

 

[Mackeyser]

I believe the argument is that the overwhelming amount of people dying from this are the elderly. Not that nobody else can be affected. If there are no comorbidities, and they're 20, I seriously doubt you have anything to worry about. *If* that's even what they have. Keep a positive attitude, m'man. It's gonna be fine.

Im not worried about my youngest dying from it as the science shows the chance of that is pretty low. They have a strong immune system and they are in a positive, supportive environment which science shows improves outcomes. But... I felt like shit all night and with all my issues, if I get it... it’ll be a coin flip if I make it.

And yeah, there are people out there saying that kids can’t even get it or if they do, they can’t get sick and it’s just not true.

 

[XXXIVwin]

If you dont think the US had flattened the curve, there isnt any point in discussing any more

Cases have exploded. Deaths are trending back up to 1000 per day.

The USA has “flattened the curve”? You forgot your blue font again.

Deborah Birx has expressed privately her opinion that many schools should not reopen, but she’s afraid to say so publicly.

 

[kurtfaulk]

View attachment 38024
Cases have exploded. Deaths are trending back up to 1000 per day.

The USA has “flattened the curve”? You forgot your blue font again.

Deborah Birx has expressed privately her opinion that many schools should not reopen, but she’s afraid to say so publicly.

i think he's confusing the daily chart with the cumulative chart. getting the cases down to 20,000 per day is not flattening the curve, it's still ramping it up.

here's the chart he should be looking at.

unless he means america is flattening it up vertically?

.