XXXIVwin
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Covid 19 thread
- Thread starter Riverumbbq
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OC--LeftCoast
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Totally missed his point or you just don’t care to be taken seriously? ( oh yeah, another either/or)
Dammit, lol, you’re making me regret sticking up for you the first time, thought you were better than that. (And still hope you are, just step away... from the Chulupa, and regather)
Agree 100% with X on his first reference to this btw, look, most of us are fully aware of cable news bias, it doesn’t begin and end with Fox, the fact that I’m in a semi position of defending them is repugnant (Oh and before I forget, F/U for this, punk
) no less than it would be defending the other guys.Cheers
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-X-
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I’m so annoyed by this. Been saying the same things for months now, especially early on, and the only responses I ever get are “well what about what _________ said”, or this study says ____________” or “X amount of people have died!“
People die. You start dying the second you’re born. Nothing we’ve been doing to keep people from dying from this is logical or supported by common sense. In some cases, people were actually killed by Politicians using their own brand of common sense (sending people into environments containing the most vulnerable)?. And that’s why I constantly reference the flu and why we don’t have the same “safeguards” in place for it. It kills tens of thousands of people, and children aren’t safe from it.
Ah whatever. I’ll just do me.
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For a point of reference, I have followed covidtracking.com for my data since Mid April as it seems to be the most unbiased and seems fairly accurate. Most importantly though I think using 1 source for data allows for consistency, since it seems apparent one can find data to support/refute their particular POV.
That said, judging from a mortality count, here's what I see as total per month/day
April: 52,937 lost, 1,765 per day
May: 38,887 lost, 1,254 per day
June: 20,706 lost, 690 per day
July: 24,594 lost, 793 per day
Aug: 2,210 lost, 553 per day
In terms of a "spike", in July thru the 15th the rate was at 583, but unfortunately jumped to 991 for the remainder of the month.
On the hospitalization side, July began the month at just over 36k hospitalizations, and that soared to a high of just under 60k by July 23rd, and now has decreased down to 53k level and showing a downward trajectory
Hospitalizations and mortality count decreasing while testing remains on an incredible upward trajectory
Testing became available mid April, so that month wouldnt be indicator but in
May, tests per day- 346,300
June, tests per day- 508,600
July 1 to present, 741,000 per day in testing. Almost May & June combined
That said, judging from a mortality count, here's what I see as total per month/day
April: 52,937 lost, 1,765 per day
May: 38,887 lost, 1,254 per day
June: 20,706 lost, 690 per day
July: 24,594 lost, 793 per day
Aug: 2,210 lost, 553 per day
In terms of a "spike", in July thru the 15th the rate was at 583, but unfortunately jumped to 991 for the remainder of the month.
On the hospitalization side, July began the month at just over 36k hospitalizations, and that soared to a high of just under 60k by July 23rd, and now has decreased down to 53k level and showing a downward trajectory
Hospitalizations and mortality count decreasing while testing remains on an incredible upward trajectory
Testing became available mid April, so that month wouldnt be indicator but in
May, tests per day- 346,300
June, tests per day- 508,600
July 1 to present, 741,000 per day in testing. Almost May & June combined
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Tells a vastly different story than you hear anywhere else. Ty for the input.
12intheBox
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Here is that hospitalization data via chart for those of you who process better visually.
And here is the US Daily deaths chart ...
12intheBox
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I get being frustrated with the situation - I think we all are. But I’m not sure what you are saying here ....
“people die” - Yeah - and we try to prolong life as much as possible. Death comes for us all but we don’t go down without a fight.
“Nothing we’ve been doing to keep people from dying from this is logical or supported by common sense.” - sure it is. This virus is contagious - as we have learned more about how it spreads, the measures we have taken (distancing, masks) are meant to mitigate the number of people who get it. Doctors and hospitals have also gotten significantly better at fighting this thing - which has saved lives. There are articles about the tactics that have improved the situation - happy to share some if you are interested.
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And yet weren't you the one upthread who said you were dead set against HCQ because the FDA said it was dangerous? I'm too lazy to go back through the thread right now, but, oh, I would swear that was you who said it. So I posted a tweet with embedded video from the director of the FDA explicitly and in no uncertain terms that the decision to use HCQ as a treatment for Covid was between the patient and their doctor.
And your assertion of *zero* proof? Ok, go tell that to all the doctors who have prescribed HCQ to Covid patients and have seen them recover. Better yet, go tell that to the patients themselves, not just in this country but all over the world that have successfully used HCQ either as a treatment for the disease or as a prophylactic against getting it (and there are plenty of examples cited in this thread).
And finally, I laugh at you, the same guy who whined about "civility" in one of your posts to X taking the tone you are now. Pot, meet kettle.
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From the end of May, but the point still stands.
www.realclearpolitics.com
!
Emphasis added by me.
The latest Centers for Disease Control data show that the COVID-19 fatality rate is 0.26% -- four times higher than the worst rate for the seasonal flu over the past decade. That is dramatically lower than the World Health Organization’s estimate of 3.4% and Dr. Anthony Fauci’s initial guess of about 2%.
When the CDC projected 1.7 million deaths back in March, it used an estimated death rate of 0.8%. Imperial College’s estimate of 2.2 million deaths assumed a rate of 0.9%. The fear generated by the projections drives the public policy debate. The Washington Post headline, “As deaths mount, Trump tries to convince Americans it’s safe to inch back to normal,” were part of a steady diet of such fare. When Georgia opened up over a month ago, the Post warned: “Georgia leads the race to become America’s No. 1 Death Destination.”
The CDC currently puts the number of confirmed deaths at about 100,000. But even the “best estimate” 0.26% fatality rate is a significant overestimate because of how the CDC is counting deaths. The actual rate is fairly close to a recent bad year for the seasonal flu. And though public health officials have been transparent about how they are counting coronavirus deaths, the implications for calculating the infection fatality rate are not appreciated.
“The case definition is very simplistic,” Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of Illinois Department of Public Health, explains. “It means, at the time of death, it was a COVID positive diagnosis. That means, that if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means, technically even if you died of [a] clear alternative cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it’s still listed as a COVID death.”
Medical examiners from Colorado to Michigan use the same definition. In Macomb and Oakland counties in Michigan, where most of the deaths in that state occurred, medical examiners classify any death as a coronavirus death when the postmortem test is positive. Even people who died in suicides and automobile accidents meet that definition.
Such expansive definitions are not due to rogue public health officials. The rules direct them to do this. “If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx recently noted.
Beyond including people with the virus who clearly didn’t die from it, the numbers are inflated by counting people who don’t even have the virus. New York has classified many cases as coronavirus deaths even when postmortem tests have been negative. The diagnosis can be based on symptoms, even though the symptoms are often similar to those of the seasonal flu.
The Centers for Disease Control guidance explicitly acknowledges the uncertainty that doctors can face when identifying the cause of death. When coronavirus cases are “suspected,” the agency counsels doctors that “it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate.” This advice has produced a predictable inflation in the numbers. When New York City’s death toll rose above 10,000 on April 21, the New York Times reported that the city included “3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive” – more than a 50% increase in the number of cases.
Nor can this be explained by false-negative results in the tests. For the five most commonly used tests, the least reliable test still scored a 96% accuracy rate in laboratory settings. Some doctors report feeling pressure from hospitals to list deaths as being due to the coronavirus, even when the doctors don’t believe that is the case “to make it look a little bit worse than it is.” That is pressure they say they never previously faced in reporting deaths from the seasonal flu.
There are financial incentives that might make a difference for hospitals and doctors. The CARES Act adds a 20% premium for COVID-19 Medicare patients. Birx and others are also concerned that the CDC’s “antiquated” accounting system is double-counting cases and inflating mortality and case counts “by as much as 25%.” When all these anomalies are added up, it becomes apparent that we simply don’t have an accurate death toll from this new coronavirus. But it seems clear that the correct rate is just a little worse than the rate for the 2017-2018 flu.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post, New York Times, and others claim that we are undercounting the true number of deaths. They reach that conclusion by showing that the total number of deaths from all causes is about 30% greater than we would typically expect from March through early May. They then conclude that the excess is due to deaths not being accurately labeled as due to the coronavirus.
But these are not normal times. Many people with heart problems aren’t going to the hospital for fear of the virus. Delaying cancer surgeries and other serious medical treatments for months has real impacts on life expectancies. The stress of the situation is almost certainly increasing suicides and other illnesses. Which is not to minimize the threat: Even if the true death toll is now closer to 50,000 than 100,000, this pandemic is a big deal. But we need some perspective. During the 2017-18 flu season, 61,000 Americans died from the flu.
Public health officials need to face a lot of serious questions about how they counted Coronavirus deaths. We don’t have all the answers yet, but it’s clear the inflated numbers have helped mislead people into a state of alarmism.
U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Is Inflated | RealClearPolitics
The latest Centers for Disease Control data show that the COVID-19 fatality rate is 0.26% -- four times higher than the worst rate for the seasonal flu over the past decade. That is dramatically...
Emphasis added by me.
The latest Centers for Disease Control data show that the COVID-19 fatality rate is 0.26% -- four times higher than the worst rate for the seasonal flu over the past decade. That is dramatically lower than the World Health Organization’s estimate of 3.4% and Dr. Anthony Fauci’s initial guess of about 2%.
When the CDC projected 1.7 million deaths back in March, it used an estimated death rate of 0.8%. Imperial College’s estimate of 2.2 million deaths assumed a rate of 0.9%. The fear generated by the projections drives the public policy debate. The Washington Post headline, “As deaths mount, Trump tries to convince Americans it’s safe to inch back to normal,” were part of a steady diet of such fare. When Georgia opened up over a month ago, the Post warned: “Georgia leads the race to become America’s No. 1 Death Destination.”
The CDC currently puts the number of confirmed deaths at about 100,000. But even the “best estimate” 0.26% fatality rate is a significant overestimate because of how the CDC is counting deaths. The actual rate is fairly close to a recent bad year for the seasonal flu. And though public health officials have been transparent about how they are counting coronavirus deaths, the implications for calculating the infection fatality rate are not appreciated.
“The case definition is very simplistic,” Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of Illinois Department of Public Health, explains. “It means, at the time of death, it was a COVID positive diagnosis. That means, that if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means, technically even if you died of [a] clear alternative cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it’s still listed as a COVID death.”
Medical examiners from Colorado to Michigan use the same definition. In Macomb and Oakland counties in Michigan, where most of the deaths in that state occurred, medical examiners classify any death as a coronavirus death when the postmortem test is positive. Even people who died in suicides and automobile accidents meet that definition.
Such expansive definitions are not due to rogue public health officials. The rules direct them to do this. “If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx recently noted.
Beyond including people with the virus who clearly didn’t die from it, the numbers are inflated by counting people who don’t even have the virus. New York has classified many cases as coronavirus deaths even when postmortem tests have been negative. The diagnosis can be based on symptoms, even though the symptoms are often similar to those of the seasonal flu.
The Centers for Disease Control guidance explicitly acknowledges the uncertainty that doctors can face when identifying the cause of death. When coronavirus cases are “suspected,” the agency counsels doctors that “it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate.” This advice has produced a predictable inflation in the numbers. When New York City’s death toll rose above 10,000 on April 21, the New York Times reported that the city included “3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive” – more than a 50% increase in the number of cases.
Nor can this be explained by false-negative results in the tests. For the five most commonly used tests, the least reliable test still scored a 96% accuracy rate in laboratory settings. Some doctors report feeling pressure from hospitals to list deaths as being due to the coronavirus, even when the doctors don’t believe that is the case “to make it look a little bit worse than it is.” That is pressure they say they never previously faced in reporting deaths from the seasonal flu.
There are financial incentives that might make a difference for hospitals and doctors. The CARES Act adds a 20% premium for COVID-19 Medicare patients. Birx and others are also concerned that the CDC’s “antiquated” accounting system is double-counting cases and inflating mortality and case counts “by as much as 25%.” When all these anomalies are added up, it becomes apparent that we simply don’t have an accurate death toll from this new coronavirus. But it seems clear that the correct rate is just a little worse than the rate for the 2017-2018 flu.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post, New York Times, and others claim that we are undercounting the true number of deaths. They reach that conclusion by showing that the total number of deaths from all causes is about 30% greater than we would typically expect from March through early May. They then conclude that the excess is due to deaths not being accurately labeled as due to the coronavirus.
But these are not normal times. Many people with heart problems aren’t going to the hospital for fear of the virus. Delaying cancer surgeries and other serious medical treatments for months has real impacts on life expectancies. The stress of the situation is almost certainly increasing suicides and other illnesses. Which is not to minimize the threat: Even if the true death toll is now closer to 50,000 than 100,000, this pandemic is a big deal. But we need some perspective. During the 2017-18 flu season, 61,000 Americans died from the flu.
Public health officials need to face a lot of serious questions about how they counted Coronavirus deaths. We don’t have all the answers yet, but it’s clear the inflated numbers have helped mislead people into a state of alarmism.
12intheBox
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@thirteen28 - I appreciate your calling attention to the fact that your article was written at the end of May - respectfully, don't you think that fact makes this article - well, outdated?
We have all known that in an epidemic - the numbers are going to be somewhat fallible - that is part of chaos. But as time goes on, the data gets more and more complete and more and more accurate.
Part of not having a national plan meant that 50 states ended up with 50 different different mechanisms for reporting data.
Take a look at the way the Covid Tracking Project defines their death data ....
Deaths (confirmed and probable)
API field name: death
Total fatalities with confirmed OR probable COVID-19 case diagnosis (per the expanded CSTE case definition of April 5th, 2020 approved by the CDC). In states where the information is available, it only tracks fatalities with confirmed OR probable COVID-19 case diagnosis where COVID-19 is an underlying cause of death according to the death certificate based on WHO guidelines.
Deaths (confirmed)
API field name: deathConfirmed
Total fatalities with confirmed COVID-19 case diagnosis (per the expanded CSTE case definition of April 5th, 2020 approved by the CDC). In states where the information is available, it only tracks fatalities with confirmed COVID-19 case diagnosis where COVID-19 is an underlying cause of death according to the death certificate based on WHO guidelines.
Deaths (probable)
API field name: deathProbable
Total fatalities with probable COVID-19 case diagnosis (per the expanded CSTE case definition of April 5th, 2020 approved by the CDC). In states where the information is available, it only tracks fatalities with confirmed OR probable COVID-19 case diagnosis where COVID-19 is an underlying cause of death according to the death certificate based on WHO guidelines.
_____
Johns Hopkins and the Covid Tracking Project aren't monetizing this - they are trying to keep us informed. To keep us taking this seriously so that we change our behavior to address the epidemic.
We have all known that in an epidemic - the numbers are going to be somewhat fallible - that is part of chaos. But as time goes on, the data gets more and more complete and more and more accurate.
Part of not having a national plan meant that 50 states ended up with 50 different different mechanisms for reporting data.
Take a look at the way the Covid Tracking Project defines their death data ....
Deaths (confirmed and probable)
API field name: death
Total fatalities with confirmed OR probable COVID-19 case diagnosis (per the expanded CSTE case definition of April 5th, 2020 approved by the CDC). In states where the information is available, it only tracks fatalities with confirmed OR probable COVID-19 case diagnosis where COVID-19 is an underlying cause of death according to the death certificate based on WHO guidelines.
Deaths (confirmed)
API field name: deathConfirmed
Total fatalities with confirmed COVID-19 case diagnosis (per the expanded CSTE case definition of April 5th, 2020 approved by the CDC). In states where the information is available, it only tracks fatalities with confirmed COVID-19 case diagnosis where COVID-19 is an underlying cause of death according to the death certificate based on WHO guidelines.
Deaths (probable)
API field name: deathProbable
Total fatalities with probable COVID-19 case diagnosis (per the expanded CSTE case definition of April 5th, 2020 approved by the CDC). In states where the information is available, it only tracks fatalities with confirmed OR probable COVID-19 case diagnosis where COVID-19 is an underlying cause of death according to the death certificate based on WHO guidelines.
_____
Johns Hopkins and the Covid Tracking Project aren't monetizing this - they are trying to keep us informed. To keep us taking this seriously so that we change our behavior to address the epidemic.
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No, not where it's overarching point is concerned. The data we are working with is polluted with inaccuracy - there have been a number of more recent links posted in this thread with one example after another. I've seen little if anything on the tightening up of data reporting requirements. I've seen a few retractions of bad data here and there, but those are the exceptions, not the rule.
The whole point of the article is that the data we are using to drive our response is at best, inaccurate in a degree far larger than what can be considered marginal, and probably absolute shit.
I'm sure Johns Hopkins is doing their best, but they are not on the ground, they are not in every state and every hospital, so they can only do their best with what they are told.
Meanwhile, if you really want people to take this seriously so that we make the appropriate changes to our behavior during the epidemic, you should be pounding your fist on the table for more stringent, accurate data reporting requirements. Reporting the death of a terminal cancer patient in hospice with days to live as a Covid does nothing to advance our understanding of the present situation. Neither does reporting the death of a car accident victim as a Covid death, nor does reporting a bunch of deaths where the victims tested negative for Covid. Instead, that causes an overreaction, which has driven public policy responses that in turn have led to economic calamity and additional deaths due to suicide, missed treatments for other medical issues and so on.
Overreaction is just as bad as underreaction. And a strong case for action is not built on fudged or faulty data, it's built on data that accurately conveys the true picture of what's happening.
XXXIVwin
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Yes, I saw his point, but I chose to ignore it.Totally missed his point or you just don’t care to be taken seriously? ( oh yeah, another either/or)
Dammit, lol, you’re making me regret sticking up for you the first time, thought you were better than that. (And still hope you are, just step away... from the Chulupa, and regather)
Agree 100% with X on his first reference to this btw, look, most of us are fully aware of cable news bias, it doesn’t begin and end with Fox, the fact that I’m in a semi position of defending them is repugnant (Oh and before I forget, F/U for this, punk
Cheers
And yes, I’m better than that, but I don’t give a shit anymore.
A good man recently reminded me of the old joke:
never play chess with a pigeon.
The pigeon just knocks all the pieces over.
Then shits all over the board.
Then struts around like it won.
Debating on this thread often feels like playing chess with pigeons.
So yeah, being reminded to avoid saying “Faux News” is like saying “don’t forget to line up your pieces straight!” To which I reply, “I’m playing chess with pigeons, so why should it matter?”
(Disclaimer: doesn’t feel that way with you OC, since at least you try your ass off to be friendly while you disagree.)
Americans are dying and our economy is going down the tubes because ppl won’t listen to science, and I’m fucking sick of it.
-X-
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Who exactly isn’t listening to science?
XXXIVwin
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You’re right 1328, my civility has eroded lately. Sorry about that. Using the word “laughable“ was not cool, my apologies.
My point still stands though. Saying that HCQ “works” is using the same outdated logic of the snake oil salesman of the 1700’s: “people seem to think it works.” Now in 2020, we have scientific methods available to find objective proof.
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You know that's contradictory right? The economy is down because we are listening to science and not fully opening up.
XXXIVwin
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Ugh, that’s an incredibly complicated question, and what much of this entire thread has been about.
For me, the most egregious and destructive refusal to listen to science has been this:
The science of epidemiology said that after a lockdown, you have to make sure the virus is tamped down to very low levels for two weeks before gradually reopening. Instead, many governors in the USA chose to ignore that warning and reopened way too quickly. And now basically our whole country is fucked, and will be fucked for many months to come.
Meanwhile, the many other countries which adhered to to basic science of reopening strategy are doing infinitely better than we are.
Edit: the post directly above this one is an excellent example as well.
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12intheBox
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This - I think - is one of the big disagreements in this issue.
The economy vs health. Competing Interests?
My personal opinion is that to fix the economy we have to beat the virus - and that there really is no other way. Instead of shutting this thing down - we tried to stay as open as possible - scratching and clawing to reopen at all costs. Lawsuits flying to around to fight governors who tried to prioritize health.
As a result, we got kicked in the teeth on both counts. Imagine if all states had taken the Arizona, Florida, Texas approach. Would the economy be better or worse right now?
Next up is schools. We HAVE to open schools right? But when we open them up - this thing is going to blow up even more. Control the virus, then open schools.
XXXIVwin
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I was tempted to put "thread winner" on this post because it epitomizes everything wrong with the way the USA has handled this epidemic.
"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead!" is the way to ensure that many people die AND our economy remains in the tank. As long as the virus remains widespread, businesses will be forced to shut down as people remain too afraid to be consumers.
Had we listened to science and done it THE RIGHT WAY THE FIRST TIME, and had the patience and the discipline to carry out a coordinated 50-state plan to clamp down HARD in April and May, we could have smothered this pandemic into a manageable brush fire.
But instead, the message was, "Don't listen to science, we need to fully open up!"
We had no coordinated scientific plan on re-opening, and now we're screwed.
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