Chicken or egg (QB vs Receiver)

[Mojo Ram]

Yes. Absolutely yes. Kid isn't as pro ready as Goff but I think he's going to be a good one. He's like Bortles. There are some areas of his game that need time and development but he'll get there.

Fair enough, and you'd start him from day one despite this ?

 

[jrry32]

Fair enough, and you'd start him from day one despite this ?

If he's ready, yes. If not, no. That determination will have to be made by the coaches. But, unlike a lot of people, I have no issue with sitting a first round QB if he's not ready. Lynch will be more than worth it down the line.

 

[Picked4td]

Y'all are sleeping hard on Paxton Lynch.

Fellow Lynch fan, and honestly would have no problem drafting him top 10 either. Would you rather him start day 1 or sit til Keenum as hurt the team enough

 

[Roman Snow]

I do believe we need to upgrade both positions. But I reject the "hurry up and do something" mentality. If there is not a better option for us in this draft at QB then look elsewhere at WR and other positions and prepare our existing guys. Overall, the QB position is most critical.

...oh and the chicken came first. That's how God created it. A whole flock, because Adam and Eve found them delicious.

 

[jap]

Fellow Lynch fan, and honestly would have no problem drafting him top 10 either. Would you rather him start day 1 or sit til Keenum as hurt the team enough

If Case starts off the season, he will have considerable help from a young improving OL and a RB with Golden Legs who is about to go supernova.

 

[Picked4td]

If Case starts off the season, he will have considerable help from a young improving OL and a RB with Golden Legs who is about to go supernova.

While I'm a fan of Case and think he can have success with a healthy (and hopefully improved) surrounding cast, I dont think hes a star and I'm sure there will come a time he hurts the team and people are calling for his replacement. Wasnt meant as a jab at Case

 

[jap]

While I'm a fan of Case and think he can have success with a healthy (and hopefully improved) surrounding cast, I dont think hes a star and I'm sure there will come a time he hurts the team and people are calling for his replacement. Wasnt meant as a jab at Case

Wasn't taken as one. Case has his limitations, although I love his feistyness, and I prefer better quality player to lead our troops.

 

[Ramhusker]

So picking Lynch, Boyd, and Hunter should fix our ailments?

 

[jrry32]

So picking Lynch, Boyd, and Hunter should fix our ailments?

Maybe? I'd say probably not in the immediate future because they're rookies...but down the line, I think it's possible. Draft is always a crapshoot but those are three guys I feel good about.

 

[StealYoGurley]

This argument isn't clear cut. I would take an elite WR over a toolsy average QB any day. IMO an elite WR is taking you farther than guys like Jay Cutler or Ryan Tanehill. I think Ramsey's post sheds alot of light on this debate. Elite QBs who can cary a team to the superbowl are rarely found outside of the top 6 in terms of first round QBs. In fact 2nd round guys have been more successful on average. If a QB is there at 15 that says alot about him according to draft history the success rate is low recently.

If the goal is a superbowl waisting a first round pick on a toolsy QB who will never be more than average hurts in the short and long term. The first round guy usually starts in year 1 and more likely than not isn't great and doesn't go anywhere especially if there is a weak team around him. Then that guy shows flashes in the first couple years giving you hope for better things , but isn't elite, however in QB starved market you have to spend a huge portion of your cap to keep him there because supply fort even serviceable QBs is limited. All of this just to end up with more average performances. Guys like Tanehill, Cutler, Bradford exemplify thids and to some Stafford and Matt Ryan would be in that class without 2 of best receivers in our Generation Julio Jones and Megatron.

 

[jrry32]

This argument isn't clear cut. I would take an elite WR over a toolsy average QB any day. IMO an elite WR is taking you farther than guys like Jay Cutler or Ryan Tanehill.

Except he's not. An elite WR isn't taking you anywhere without a QB. Guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson couldn't stop their teams from sucking. Jay Cutler and Ryan Tannehill are going to do more for a team than an elite WR. That's simply the nature of today's NFL. The QB position is that valuable and the WR position is that unvaluable.

I think Ramsey's post sheds alot of light on this debate. Elite QBs who can cary a team to the superbowl are rarely found outside of the top 6 in terms of first round QBs. In fact 2nd round guys have been more successful on average. If a QB is there at 15 that says alot about him according to draft history the success rate is low recently.

Current starting QBs that led their team to at least one Super Bowl:
Tom Brady - 6th round
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Ben Roethlisberger - 1st round (#11)
Aaron Rodgers - 1st round (#24)
Peyton Manning - 1st round (#1)
Eli Manning - 1st round (#1)
Joe Flacco - 1st round (#18)
Drew Brees - 2nd round
(I know Peyton is retired but I'm counting him because the 2016 regular season hasn't started yet)

So no, your statement isn't accurate that they are rarely found outside of the top 6.

As for your contention that QBs drafted in the mid-first round have a low success rate, that's also untrue. Since 2000, there have been 8 QBs drafted between pick #11 and #20. There's a 50% success rate (4 out of 8). In the last decade (since 2006), the success rate is 40%. The success rate of QBs drafted in the top 10 since 2000 is 54% and in the last decade, it's 50%. So there's a higher success rate with top 10 QBs (not surprising) but it's not a significant difference.

On the other hand, the success rate with second round QBs over the past decade is 27%. Since 2000, the success rate of 2nd round QBs is 28%. I was also very lenient with second round QBs. I classified Osweiler and Kaepernick as successes when I would not have classified either as successes if they were drafted in the first round. Removing them, that number drops from 27% and 28% to 13% and 17%.

So no, second round guys have not been more successful on average and lasting to pick #15 does not mean a guy is going to bust because there must be something wrong with him. If that logic were to hold, then there would have to be REALLY something wrong with a guy for him to last to the 2nd round.

If the goal is a superbowl waisting a first round pick on a toolsy QB who will never be more than average hurts in the short and long term. The first round guy usually starts in year 1 and more likely than not isn't great and doesn't go anywhere especially if there is a weak team around him. Then that guy shows flashes in the first couple years giving you hope for better things , but isn't elite, however in QB starved market you have to spend a huge portion of your cap to keep him there because supply fort even serviceable QBs is limited. All of this just to end up with more average performances. Guys like Tanehill, Cutler, Bradford exemplify thids and to some Stafford and Matt Ryan would be in that class without 2 of best receivers in our Generation Julio Jones and Megatron.

If the goal is the Super Bowl, you need a legitimate QB. "Wasting" a first round pick on a WR when you have a journeyman backup QB doesn't aid you in that goal.

P.S. Two of the QBs from the Super Bowl list above were toolsy QBs that played at small schools and were drafted in the mid-first round. Didn't pan out too poorly for the Ravens and the Steelers.

 

[Ballhawk]

OK guys, i can answer this for once and for all. It's the chicken!
An egg without a hen to keep it warm and to protect before and after it hatches is just snake food. I know because I have free range chickens.
I hope that helps!

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I wonder about the long term and the Rams thinking in that regard. Is this whole move going to mean the team is sunk this season? Athletes lives are run by routine. Disrupt the routine and it can affect play on the field. New city, new distractions, living out of boxes, etc... Will this affect them this year? Are they going to be picking top 5 in the 2017 draft? How many good QBs come out in that draft? I am asking. I don't know but I am sure that Snead has an idea about future draft talent. If it is a good class and the Rams muddle through a season with Keenum and land their QB in 2018 it would it be so bad in the big picture? In that case get your Treadwell


I say this because there are two sides to the Rams/LA thing. Win now and win over the fans, or have the best possible team in place when the new stadium opens up. Forcing a draft pick on a QB now, that could cost a lot in the future, is a risk to make the 'Stadium Debut' a huge success. On the other hand if there is nothing better on the horizon, they best get their guy in there right now and train him up.


I don't think the Rams are looking at this class as the must have QB class, in the big picture. But I do think they will try hard to move up to get the #1 pick and secure Wentz. Sitting at 15 is not going to be an option if they want this LA move a huge success.

 

[Frogbelly]

It seems to me that Britt had defenders beat deep often, but either he had to slow down to wait on the ball or stop. I'm not talking about the back shoulder throws. And has anyone seen a comparison between Mannion and these new qb's coming out this year?

 

[DaveFan'51]

In this Draft I would definitely say, WR 1st!! No question about it!!

 

[Faceplant]

I think anyone who would prioritize a franchise WR over a franchise QB is an ass hat. That said, I do NOT see a franchise QB in this draft. Not even close. Treadwell @ #15 please!!!

 

[-X-]

Disagree. There's certainly a reciprocal relationship between the two but it's not symbiotic.

Oh, and not to split hairs, but yes it is. It's a relationship of mutual benefit or dependence. It's usually mutually beneficial, but it can often be dependent. Like how we saw Romo struggle without Dez. How we saw Brady struggle hard in the first half of 2013 without Gronk (or anyone else). I only need two examples to show that it's a valid description. On the flip side, Brady eventually turned those same receivers into productive guys (not stars, but productive). Same with Bradford getting Gibson and Amendola second contracts after they were practice squad players for other teams before they made it to the Rams.

There are many examples of teams with a good QB and good (or great) receiver that meander around never really sustaining success, but that shouldn't be an indictment of the premise I made about how a great receiver could greatly benefit this current Rams team. That's the problem with these types of debates, IMO. Someone can make a valid argument for something, and then someone else will pull the Brady or Megatron card.

 

[-X-]

And for the OP. I think anyone who would prioritize a franchise WR over a franchise QB is an ass hat. That said, I do NOT see a franchise QB in this draft. Not even close. Treadwell @ #15 please!!!

Yeah, I think it's clear that I wasn't prioritizing a Franchise WR over a Franchise QB if given both options (which I don't think we'll have). If we're able to move up into the top 2, then grab the QB. If we have to stay where we are, then grab the WR if he falls. Can't even guarantee that Treadwell will be there. Lotta receiver-starved teams in the league too.

 

[Faceplant]

Yeah, I think it's clear that I wasn't prioritizing a Franchise WR over a Franchise QB if given both options (which I don't think we'll have). If we're able to move up into the top 2, then grab the QB. If we have to stay where we are, then grab the WR if he falls. Can't even guarantee that Treadwell will be there. Lotta receiver-starved teams in the league too.

Lolz, I would NEVER call you and asshole (as far as you know). I was referring to the original POST, not poster, haha. It was a good question and debate. I think you and I are on the same page as usual....

 

[jap]

Yeah, I think it's clear that I wasn't prioritizing a Franchise WR over a Franchise QB if given both options (which I don't think we'll have). If we're able to move up into the top 2, then grab the QB. If we have to stay where we are, then grab the WR if he falls. Can't even guarantee that Treadwell will be there. Lotta receiver-starved teams in the league too.

At least we will have Quickie and Sted returning from the dead this TC.