Andrew Luck's retirement changes the outlook for the Colts -- and the AFC. Our NFL experts discuss the AFC South, Luck's replacement and more.
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What now for the Luck-less Colts? Who's the AFC South favorite? Experts weigh in
Indianapolis Colts quarterback
Andrew Luck is
retiring from the NFL at age 29, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft has missed 26 games in his career, including the entire 2017 season, due to shoulder, kidney and rib injuries. Luck returned last season and threw for 4,593 yards with 39 touchdowns while winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year, but he has been dealing with an ankle injury for the last month.
How does Luck's retirement affect the AFC South? And what should we expect from his replacement, former Patriots third-round pick
Jacoby Brissett? We asked our panel of NFL insiders to weigh in:
In mid-July, we put the Colts No. 1 in our Future Power Rankings. If we re-ranked now, where would you put them?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Without Luck, we have to drop down the Colts as a mid-tier team. I still like the young core of talent that general manager Chris Ballard has put together in Indianapolis. Just look at the past two drafts, led by
Darius Leonard and
Quenton Nelson. Ballard has a team of productive players with high-end athletic traits who fit the Colts' scheme. But having an elite quarterback is a big part of this ranking, and we don't yet know Brissett's ceiling.
Mike Clay, NFL writer: I'd drop them just outside the top 10. Ballard is doing an excellent job, and I have no doubt he'll get this franchise back near the top of the league, but losing a franchise quarterback is devastating for any team. The Colts still have a very good offensive line and solid defense, so I expect them to be better this season than they were in 2017, but they won't be a legitimate Super Bowl contender until they find their next star quarterback.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: It's too significant a blow to keep them in the top tier. You trust Ballard and coach Frank Reich and what they're doing to assemble and develop the rest of the roster, but no one has seen enough out of Brissett to trust him as a starting quarterback on a contending team. Drop them to around No. 15 or so and see whether they're in the QB market next spring.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: No. 16, with a chance into the top 10 if Brissett can continue his development. The Colts have a really good roster, with difference-makers on both sides of the ball, and their offensive line is especially well-positioned to support the team. And don't forget that Ballard has proved adept at dealing with unexpected turns of events.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Closer to the middle of the pack. Not only is there a more thorough evaluation needed in regard to Brissett, but he's due to be a free agent after this season. That being said, it's a top front office, outstanding coaching staff and rock-solid roster in many spots.
Brissett now takes over as the Colts' quarterback. What do you expect out of him this season?
Bowen: Brissett isn't Luck. The former No. 1 overall pick was an elite talent. However, Brissett played well in 2017 on a team without much talent. And I am a big believer in Reich. He will build out a game plan to maximize Brissett as a pocket thrower, while catering to his movement skills to create productive opportunities for the QB.
Clay: How about
3,897 passing yards and 26 total touchdowns? That would be an improvement on the 3,098 yards and 17 touchdowns he totaled back in 2017, but keep in mind that was his first season with the team and his supporting cast is much better. Brissett can also produce with his legs -- he ranked sixth among quarterbacks in carries and rushing touchdowns in 2017 -- so the Colts can expect more in that area than they would've gotten from Luck.
Seifert: He has all of the tools to be a high-end quarterback: leadership, pocket presence, accuracy and some mobility. He isn't Luck, but it's hard to imagine the Colts being in better hands given the state of backup quarterbacks in the NFL, at least on teams with established starters.
Graziano: Inconsistency. Brissett has the natural ability to be a starting quarterback in the league, but he still hasn't advanced past some key developmental benchmarks. He needs to vary the speed of his throws, adjust for situations, etc. Maybe a season's worth of regular reps under Reich's tutelage will help, but it's hard to imagine the offense looking like it did with Luck last season.
Yates: There will be bumps along the road, but he's unquestionably mentally prepared to handle the job at hand. He has filled in for Luck before and has an excellent grasp of the offensive system. He has some of the requisite traits to be a capable starter, but the Colts will need an outstanding defensive effort this year to win the division.
Who's your pick to win the AFC South now?
Bowen: Houston Texans. The Texans will have to dip into the running back market after Saturday night's injury to running back
Lamar Miller. But with quarterback
Deshaun Watson, wide receiver
DeAndre Hopkins and the defensive talent in Houston, give me the Texans.
Clay: Houston Texans. The defending division champs won 11 games last season and didn't exactly get worse during the offseason, adding
Bradley Roby,
Matt Kalil,
Tashaun Gipson and
Jahleel Addae to help offset the losses of
Tyrann Mathieu,
Kareem Jackson and Andre Hal. The offensive line is still a major concern, but it was last season, too. Watson was terrific in 2018, and having a healthy
Will Fuller V and
Keke Coutee back should only help his cause.
Graziano: Houston Texans. I default to the Texans, who always seems to find a way, but it's a jumble now. They obviously have the division's best quarterback now, and not just by a little.
Seifert: Houston Texans. At first blush, when comparing teams that are relatively close, go with the team that has the best quarterback. The Texans have some issues, but Watson isn't one of them.
Yates: Houston Texans. While each team has question marks, Watson is the unquestioned top quarterback in the division. Houston's offensive line and running back situations are concerning, but Watson's dynamic skill set is the difference-maker.
What's the word you'd pick to sum up Luck's NFL career?
Bowen: Rare. Luck had all the tools of a top-level player. He was one of the most naturally talented quarterbacks I've watched in the past 20 years. But injuries can derail the path of anyone in the league. And the retirement news was shocking because he is still in his prime.
Clay: Captain. During Luck's seven seasons in the league, the Colts won at least 10 games in four of five seasons in which he appeared in at least half of the team's games. They won a total of 12 games during the other two seasons. The list of players who move the needle the way Luck has for the Colts franchise is extremely short and he'll undoubtedly be missed ... even more than @
CaptAndrewLuck.
Graziano: Incomplete. The league was better with him in it, and cutting his career short robs NFL fans of something special.
Seifert: Unique. He was a different cat, on and off the field, and when viewed in that context, his retirement isn't as shocking as it might seem. A second-generation NFL quarterback who spent an extra year at Stanford because he didn't want to miss any of the college experience, Luck is going out just as he came in: on his own terms.
Yates: Thrilling. At his apex, Luck was one of the finest quarterbacks in football. For now, that's the part that resonates with me most. There is a lot to unpackage with his decision, but his on-field production was thrilling.
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