There’s a lot of variables that goes into player contracts.
Let’s see. Donald hasn’t missed a game due to injury. He has played at an all pro level since the first day he stepped on the field. He doesn’t need anybody else’s help to do his job.
Gurley has played good his rookie year, bad his second year, and all pro his 3rd year. He has missed games due to injury. Is also more susceptible to injury due to being constantly tackled. Gurley needs help to do his job. If his online is bad, he will look bad (as we saw in his second year).
So based on this information I would definitely feel more comfortable paying Donald $20+ than paying Gurley the same amount.
Well, I don't think EITHER are worth $20+.
Yes, Donald is more likely to stay at his level - but since Gurley's level last season was more valuable to the Rams than Donald, what that means is that if you overpay Donald, you just are much more likely to be overpaying him each year. He's a great player, but the nature of the NFL in 2018 makes him less valuable than Gurley was in 2017. Once you decide how valuable somebody actually is to the team, consistency and health are reasons to give more guaranteed money or longer contracts - not reasons to pay him more than he actually contributes.
Oh, I suspect Donald would look a lot less good if he had as bad a DC as the Rams had an OC in 2016.
Donald also needs help to look good. Look what happened to the Rams when Donald accidentally injured Brockers in the playoff game. Look how poor the run defense was with him all year. Defenders can often be run around - they are NOT doing it all by themselves. Donald's a great player, but he needs players all around him, or he will be schemed, or he will have the holes attacked. Gurley needs help too - but if there is an intelligently designed offense holes can be found still, just not as many as he had last season with a genius offense. Of course, is it any coincidence that AD's DPOY came with Wade, despite half the starting defense being replaced the next season?
In terms of healthy, don't count on it too much. The Texans had a guy who didn't miss a game his first 5 seasons, and won 3 DPOY during that period. Healthy and consistent. Has been consistently injured and a shell of himself since then.
Donald's a great player. But the game has changed and is changing to favor the offense. Sorry if you don't like it, but it's the case. His desire to be paid like a good QB does not make sense in the modern NFL. OTOH, Gurley's desire to be paid like a top non-QB, with the contract not starting until after two seasons of the cap being raised even higher, does make sense, and is team friendly. By the time his extension starts, the money is unlikely to raise any eyebrows, and it was all achieved without any drama, and without demands that his rookie contract be rewritten. You know, the contract that guaranteed him a bunch of money, without any certainty that he would be worth the money.
