The 49ers didn't really resolve their QB issue over the offseason.
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2022 NFL Preview: 49ers came close to a Super Bowl; can Trey Lance get them there?
Maybe the San Francisco 49ers should have built around Jimmy Garoppolo for at least another year. Perhaps they'd have won a Super Bowl.
The 49ers blew a fourth-quarter lead in the NFC championship game to the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams didn't take the lead until 1:46 remained. One play could have turned it. During that game, the third overall pick of the draft — who cost San Francisco three first-round picks and a third-rounder in a trade — was one of two 49ers players to not play a single snap. There are plenty of 2021 rookies who could have made the one play the 49ers needed to seal that win and go to the Super Bowl.
And a year after drafting Trey Lance, the 49ers' situation is still awkward.
The 49ers went to an NFC championship game with Garoppolo and the easiest prediction of the offseason seemed to be that he'd be traded. Garoppolo had what amounted to a farewell media conference. When you give up a fortune to draft a quarterback third overall, he's not sitting multiple years. It was highly unusual Lance sat most of last season. But the 49ers never got that trade done in the offseason. Garoppolo underwent shoulder surgery and that might have scared teams a bit. Teams with quarterback needs ended up settling on players like Marcus Mariota, Mitchell Trubisky and Drew Lock. There weren't any interested suitors left. The 49ers had a quarterback with a $24.2 million salary, no spot for him on their roster and no chance to trade him anywhere else. And, the 49ers barely missed going to a Super Bowl with Garoppolo just a few months ago. Lance might not be any good. We don't have any idea yet.
Maybe there will be a temptation to keep Garoppolo. Lance could struggle in camp or early in the season. Then again, Lance could struggle because he has Garoppolo over his shoulder. Most likely, Garoppolo will be traded to a team that takes on an injury at quarterback or he'll be cut, but it hasn't happened yet.
Yeah, it's complicated.
The quarterback weirdness is happening atop a roster that should feel like it can win a Super Bowl. The 49ers came agonizingly close last season, leading 17-7 going into the fourth quarter against the Rams. They likely would have beat the Rams if safety Jaquiski Tartt had caught a Matthew Stafford pass thrown right at him. The 49ers got that far (and to a Super Bowl at the end of the 2019 season) with Garoppolo, who has proven to be a fine game manager but not a transcendent quarterback. The 49ers have to feel like they can be very good with average quarterback play. If Lance is special, there's championship (dynasty?) upside.
The 49ers can run the ball regardless of who is at running back, a tradition started by Mike Shanahan and passed down to his son and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan. The running game was really interesting when receiver Deebo Samuel lined up in the backfield. Samuel was unhappy during the offseason but is still on the 49ers roster, and last year he emerged as one of the best players in football. The defense was perhaps the best in the NFL down the stretch last season. There's a lot to like.
The list of things to like includes Lance's potential. He started two games last season and while he was inconsistent, he also had moments that showed off his tremendous arm strength and movement skills.
Lance has an upside that Garoppolo doesn't have. Yet, the 49ers have had a lot of success with Garoppolo being a mostly efficient quarterback who can run the offense exactly the way Shanahan wants. He can get the ball out quickly to the team's playmakers like Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle. The offense will change with Lance (assuming it'll be Lance), and there's no guarantee it'll be a better formula for the 49ers.
Either way, the 49ers are one of the most fascinating teams heading into this season. The biggest problem is that anything short of another NFC championship game will feel like a step back.
The lack of a Jimmy Garoppolo trade hurt. His cap hit of $26.95 million was on the books all offseason when the 49ers could have been taking advantage of Trey Lance's rookie deal and signing some outside help. But the 49ers didn't want to lose Garoppolo for nothing, which is understandable. Cornerback Charvarius Ward was signed from the Kansas City Chiefs on a surprising three-year, $40.5 million deal. That's a lot for Ward, who has been a good but not great corner, but clearly the 49ers think he can reach an elite level. San Francisco lost guard Laken Tomlinson and defensive tackle D.J. Jones on huge deals to other teams. The 49ers didn't spend more than $3.2 million per year (which went to S George Odum) on any other outside free agent. The draft was light due to the Lance trade. The 49ers' top picks were USC edge rusher Drake Jackson in the second round, then LSU RB Tyrion Davis-Price and SMU WR Danny Gray in the third. The latter two didn't seem like obvious needs, though perhaps San Francisco uses Davis-Price as their physical back after whiffing on the Trey Sermon pick last year. Free agency and the draft were underwhelming largely due to Garoppolo's contract and the trade for Lance, respectively. The biggest blow of the offseason might be losing seven-time Pro Bowl center Alex Mack, who retired. There are many questions on the interior of the 49ers' offensive line.
Trey Lance has been debated and doubted a lot for a quarterback who has thrown just 71 NFL passes. Here's what we know: Lance was a tremendous college player at North Dakota State, he was good enough to be the third pick in the draft, he had some promising moments as a rookie (he also was hampered by a finger injury most of the season) and he has gotten some good reviews during offseason practices.
"Defending him has been tough," defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans said, via 49ersWebzone. "He's putting the ball on the money every time he throws it. The accuracy is there. The deep ball is there. To show whatever he wants, he can zip it in there and make a lot of plays. So I'm excited for Trey and what he can do."
Praise from within the team during the offseason means little, and maybe Lance will prove to be overwhelmed in his big jump from FCS football to the NFL. He didn't look great in his first start against the Arizona Cardinals, though the game plan of Lance doing it all with his legs wasn't ideal. He looked much better in a late-season start against the Houston Texans, throwing for 249 yards and a 116 passer rating. It's time for the 49ers to find out if Lance can be a championship-level quarterback.
The 49ers' win total at BetMGM is 9.5, and the odds on the over are -140. That means a lot of people are betting on a double-digit win season from San Francisco. There's no reason that can't happen, as long as Trey Lance is as good as Jimmy Garoppolo was last season. It's a little tougher to punch a ticket on the 49ers as division champs at +190 because the Rams look good again, but the odds are OK. For a decent longshot, Lance to win MVP at 40-to-1 might be worth betting. You can tell yourself a story in which that ticket cashes.